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Old 28th June 2020, 12:39 AM   #100
The Atheist
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Originally Posted by Orphia Nay View Post
Not sure anyone can have an objective overall analysis.
I don't think that's too hard, actually and I've tried so hard to be objective that some people accused me of wanting a pandemic at the start.

There's enough evidence now that we can be fairly sure that age, morbid obesity and hypertension are the big dangers.

We can be fairly sure the IFR will be within margin of error of 0.5%.

We are very sure that 90% of cases are never counted, which means that it's not 80% of disease that's mild, it's 98% are asymptomatic or very mildly symptomatic. Given that 98% of Americans are obese, it shows that it's not that deadly, because they're holding to the 0.5%.

Within that 25 of severe illness, an unknown - but very small - number of younger people end up with a debilitating and long-lasting disease, for reasons also unknown. Or die.

All those numbers are small, but the problem is that when everyone gets it at the same time, it screws health systems big time, leading to the unenviable situation of triaging for death. We can increase the size of ICUs all we like, but ya gotta have people to staff them.

If you don't mind saying, what blood type are you?

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
It may turn out kids are immune, not spreading it, no problem. I'm not ruling that out. But I am speaking up that there are variables involved that we don't know yet.
I agree, and I wouldn't say kids aren't spreading it, but the evidence appears pretty solid that they're an insignificant vector.
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