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Old 28th June 2020, 12:40 PM   #106
Join Date: Nov 2014
Posts: 4,001
Quite a lot of merino thinking* here ...

Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
I don't think that's too hard, actually and I've tried so hard to be objective that some people accused me of wanting a pandemic at the start.

There's enough evidence now that we can be fairly sure that age, morbid obesity and hypertension are the big dangers.

Others might be poor infection control, lack of contact tracing, insufficient vents and ICU beds, ...

We can be fairly sure the IFR will be within margin of error of 0.5%.

Doesn’t the IFR depend on things like age structure of a population? Availability of appropriate medical facilities and capabilities (care, testing, etc)?

We are very sure that 90% of cases are never counted, which means that it's not 80% of disease that's mild, it's 98% are asymptomatic or very mildly symptomatic.

Take Iceland: per WHO, 1836 “confirmed cases”, 10 deaths. If “90% of cases” were not counted, but 100% of the deaths were, then the IFR would be 0.05% (10/18360).

The rest of your post keeps getting deeper into the land where Bunyips roam (and bong trees grow) ...

Given that 98% of Americans are obese, it shows that it's not that deadly, because they're holding to the 0.5%.

Within that 25 of severe illness, an unknown - but very small - number of younger people end up with a debilitating and long-lasting disease, for reasons also unknown. Or die.

All those numbers are small, but the problem is that when everyone gets it at the same time, it screws health systems big time, leading to the unenviable situation of triaging for death. We can increase the size of ICUs all we like, but ya gotta have people to staff them.
To be continued, maybe.

*you know, what the sheep grow
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