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Old 28th June 2020, 03:35 PM   #114
The Atheist
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Originally Posted by JeanTate View Post
Others might be poor infection control, lack of contact tracing, insufficient vents and ICU beds, ...
Sure they do, and poverty might be a factor as well.

Originally Posted by JeanTate View Post
Doesn’t the IFR depend on things like age structure of a population? Availability of appropriate medical facilities and capabilities (care, testing, etc)?
Not when you're looking at an overall rate, no.

Obviously some groups will do better than others, but the world IFR at the end of Covid looks like 0.5%. That could change, depending what happens next, but if things continue as they are, without major shift in the virus, the range is fairly well agreed to be in the 0.2-1.0%.

Originally Posted by JeanTate View Post
Except it's not nonsense at all, but established by various studies.

USA - the CDC estimates ten times more infections than positive tests.

Germany - Bonn University conducted a rigorous study and found the same.

There are other studies going right back to February, so let me know if you need more convincing.

The rest is simple maths - if 20% of x = y, then 2% of 10x = y as well.

Originally Posted by JeanTate View Post
Take Iceland:
Nope. Iceland, NZ, Taiwan & a few other islands are outliers and don't conform.

You accuse me of posting nonsense, then try to use an example making up 0.001% of total infections when we have the other 99.999% to work with.

Originally Posted by JeanTate View Post
The rest of your post keeps getting deeper into the land where Bunyips roam (and bong trees grow) ...
Going by your efforts so far, I'm not even going to bother to ask what you think's wrong with it.

Originally Posted by JeanTate View Post
*you know, what the sheep grow
And wrong again - sheep don't grow merino, they grow wool. Merino sheep grow merino wool.

Sensible option to raise sheep incorrectly when the other bloke's a Kiwi.

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
...New coronavirus studies say sending kids back to school would be a major risk...

Hey, I'm happy for you to produce evidence to the contrary, because the rate kids are dying at is so low I really don't have any strong opinions on it, but your link - which is almost two months old - clearly states:

The researchers indicate that children can transmit the virus, although neither study was able to prove the actual spread of the virus.
Two things out of that:

1 - A headline screaming "New coronavirus studies say sending kids back to school would be a major risk" and then immediately saying you don't have evidence to back it up is very poor work, and exactly the type of thing media need to avoid being labelled scaremongers.

2 - They've had almost two months to back it up and haven't. I call BS on it.

It's yet another case of having the option of believing real-world, mathematical evidence, or going with a gut feeling.

Hey, you can check, but way back in the thread, I said keeping schools open was a shocking idea, because kids are enormous vectors of everything from head lice to norovirus to the bleeding Black death.

But when the evidence shows me to be wrong, I'm happy to take that and say I was wrong.

Originally Posted by Lennart Hyland View Post
Sorry if this has been posted earlier:
Clear signs of brain damage in patients diagnosed with Covid-19 based on a study from the University of Gothenburg. (Swedish source:

Researchers analyzed blood samples from 47 patient with Covid-19 and found clear signs of brain damage, though if its the virus or the immune system causing this isnt yet determined.
Given it attacks multiple other organs, it wouldn't be too strange for it to be attacking the brain.

More importantly, it again emphasises the need for a vaccine, because moderately severe cases cause so much damage, and even small percentages add up with no immunity.

I'll also note it's another mistake I made early on - I was only concentrating on deaths - and I even said at one stage than hospitalisations didn't matter too much - because if people didn't die, they were well again.

I was wrong, it's causing a wide range of serious and ongoing illness in a small number of people.
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