Originally Posted by
Limbo
The weighted linear correlation between mean PSCL and trial number for steps 13 ! 1 was positive, but not significantly so (r ¼ 0.29, p ¼ 0.17). Notice that with one exception, all of the mean PSCL values prior to the emotional trial were negative, and three were significantly negative, including the trial immediately preceding the emotional trial. Thus, contrary to the expectations of 270 D. I. Radin an anticipatory strategy, a subset of participants specifically selected for exhibiting strong differential results suggestive of a genuine presentiment effect showed relaxation responses before the emotional target rather than progressive arousal. In sum, while idealized anticipatory strategies might provide an explanation of the observed results in principle, the actual data did not indicate that such strategies were employed."
I appreciate that they attempted to address this issue, but the question of whether you can rule-out an effect is different from whether you can rule-in an effect. They showed that the probability that an effect was ruled-in was only 17%. However, what is of more interest to us is that the probability that they ruled-out a small effect is about 60%, meaning that there is about a 40% chance that they missed a real effect.
Linda