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Old 26th February 2019, 01:05 PM   #7
Penultimate Amazing
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: The Antimemetics Division
Posts: 53,773
Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Wnen you have two countries with nukes who don;'t like each other anyway having a military clash, it is by definitation serious.
"Serious" is not synonymous with "huge crisis".

And my understanding is that neither country has their nukes in a "ready to go" configuration. I believe Pakistan in particular has physically separated their weapons components, and distributed command authority within their hierarchy. For them to assemble and deploy a nuclear weapon would be a fairly drawn-out process requiring buy-in from several different senior officials.

You also said, "[t]his could get very serious very fast." But this is the first cross-border airstrike from India into Pakistan since 1971. Even though Pakistan has issued many serious provocations since then. This seems like an extremely slow pace of development of the situation.

My bet is that the only reason India decided to launch this attack at this time is because they're reasonably confident that Pakistan won't escalate.
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