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Old 26th June 2020, 01:44 AM   #22
rjh01
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
The CDC has also come out and stated they believe infections are under-stated by a factor of 10, with 20M Americans having had Covid to date: https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...-at-highest-ri

I think we can be fairly confident that the same applies everywhere, giving a likely mortality rate of 0.5% overall.
I think that estimate is reasonable. In Australia there have been 7,595 cases with 104 deaths. This gives a death rate of 1.37%. If the USA had the same death rate and the number of deaths is just as accurate as Australia's deaths then the USA would have about 10 million cases. This is 3.7 times the official figure. I think this would be the lower limit of the number of cases. If Australia failed to diagnose some cases (possible, especially in the early days) then this would make the USA cases even higher. Also my estimate would be the number of cases from a few weeks ago.
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