Thread: [Continuation] Brexit: Now What? Magic 8 Ball's up
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Old 7th August 2019, 01:10 AM   #220
GlennB
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Originally Posted by McHrozni View Post
I came up with an idea of what BJ might be trying to do:

1. Get a vote of no-confidence in for a fresh election to be called sometime in November or December of 2019. That's practically a given.
2. Do NOT secure another Brexit extension. Leave with no deal on October 31st.
3. Since a no-deal Brexit just happened, Brexit party dies a timely death. Remain vote is split among LibDems and Labour, plus other assorted parties. Win a majority that doesn't require DUP or anyone else.
4. Using the fact you now have a clear majority in the HOC quickly negotiate a Canada-style free trade deal with the EU, with a permanent customs border in the Irish sea. Retain power for 10+ years owning to the fact Labour was fatally compromised over Brexit yet remains strong enough to keep LibDems from ascending to power. Let Scotland go if possible, it will be a net loss of seats to Tories for a generation or more anyway. Focus on English nationalism and exceptionalism.

I'm not saying it's a good plan for the UK, but if your sole goal is to be the PM for two or more terms it makes an alarming deal of sense. The greatest weakness in the plan is actually point 2, if he is forced somehow to go to the EU to secure an extension and EU grants it despite his best efforts not to point 3 is in peril too. It might still work or might fail, it's a roll of the dice.

McHrozni
There's a lot to be said for that analysis, especially point 3. I'd say he's terrified of a GE with the Brexit party running, not least because his own seat would be in danger.

But the whole scheme is fraught with peril. What if the vonc happens quickly and he has, somehow, to stall the GE process with one trick or another? And then Brexit itself will immediately demonstrate the realities of post-Brexit life, realities that even Leavers have barely acknowledged, such as the lorry queues on the motorways and at the immigration desks in EU airports, import difficulties (etc etc etc), so a post-Brexit GE will leave him vulnerable.

I don't think he has a plan at all, and I strongly suspect the PMship is as much of a poisoned chalice as it has been for quite a while.

I hope
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