Originally Posted by Samson
Well, a few things to keep in mind:
- If you have a large number of candidates in the primary, due to vote splitting/distribution a candidate does not need to get anywhere near a majority of votes to take an early lead
- Trump did do very well in the past election, and had strong support among the republican base.
- Even after last Wednesday's terrorist acts, a large number of republicans still support Trump, and think the terrorism was acceptable. Another poll actually showed more Republicans blamed Biden than Trump.
So, while Trump would be unlikely to win the general election (where he would have to appeal to moderates), its not out of the realm of possibility that he might win the republican primaries.