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Old 18th April 2020, 06:32 AM   #40
JeanTate
Illuminator
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Posts: 3,851
Link to post quoted here.
Originally Posted by JeanTate
Turns out the WHO situation report gives a Grand Total of 36,405 for 31 March 2020.

Also:
14509/8778 = 1.65 (not 2.00)
23335/14509 = 1.61 (not 2.00)
36405/23335 = 1.56 (not 2.00)

So what?

For one, my "supposes" were wrong* even as I wrote them.

For another, anyone who read my post could have easily discovered at least these inconsistencies.

Here are the relevant numbers for three dates in April:
4 April: 56,986 (/36405 = 1.56)
8 April: 79,235 (/56986 = 1.39)
12 April: 105,592 (/79235 = 1.33)

The data suggest that the doubling time has gone from ~five days in late March to ~eight days ~two weeks later. This is a very welcome trend, if it indeed reflects accurately how the death toll from covid-19 is changing.

*In the sense that they were obviously inconsistent with what was in the WHO situation reports, although the 36405 value was not known at the time of my post.
Something of an update.

16 April: 130,885 (/105592 = 1.24)

Fitting a linear trend line to the ratio data, and extrapolating:
20 April: 1.19 (Grand Total, global covid-19 deaths: 165,860)
24 April: 1.12 (185,763)
28 April: 1.05 (195,051)

Which is good news.

However, will Russia become the new Italy (or Spain)? Etc.
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