Originally Posted by
Boo
Wolfman,
You have mentioned a very mixed bag of steps the Chinese Gov't is taking, some good, some bad and a few at both extremes. Overall though, before the start of the games will this likely end as a positive gain for the people of China, a loss of previous gains or will life return to the status quo before the changes implemented because of the Olympics?
I would hesitate to make any predictions at all, simply because so much depends on what happens during the Games.
Take a worst-case scenario: someone actually does make a terrorist attack (or multiple attacks) at the Games. The gov't responds in the only way it knows how...with massive overreaction, sending in the military, and giving hardliners and excuse to seize even more power within the government.
Or a best-case scenario: the Games go off relatively smoothly, and the increased international attention puts more pressure on China for continued positive change (they are, after all, hosting the World Expo in Shanghai in 2010). Increase tourism and business fosters continued economic growth in China, which in turn fosters education and a middle class that has ever increasing economic power. That, in turn, drives a process of change that leads to the continuing democratization of China.
Or...it could be anywhere in between.