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Old 13th July 2020, 10:37 PM   #668
Roger Ramjets
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Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 5,340
Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
This is just made-up nonsense.

Speculators drive the price of any brokered commodity to the extent that the price bears little relation to its "utility" value.
No, it isn't nonsense. If Bitcoin is a commodity then the price should ultimately be set by what the end consumer is willing to pay.

But Bitcoin isn't a commodity in any real sense. It isn't consumed, either directly or by being incorporated into a product. Almost every person who buys Bitcoin expects to sell it again, hopefully for a higher price. So it is really just a vehicle for speculation. Its main 'value' is the warm fuzzy feeling it gives libertarians who HODL it because they think fiat currencies are doomed. But they are a minority of bitcoiners. Most are speculators who are playing the market, hoping to cash in on the next bubble before it collapses. So the actual 'commodity' isn't Bitcoin, it's the addle-headed minds of libertarians.

In any case bitcoin has utility. It can't be counterfeited and it can be transferred across the globe within minutes unhindered by man or machine. So bitcoin speculators aren't going to get "bored" and shoot themselves in the foot by dumping their holdings.
That makes it a currency, not a commodity. But as a currency it sucks. Very few businesses take it, the price is extremely unstable, transaction times are much longer than other methods, and it has little protection against fraud and theft. Its utility as a currency doesn't explain the high price.

Bitcoin speculators will get bored once they stop being able to make easy money out of it, and/or find something else more profitable. If the HODLers get bored or spooked into selling then the price will collapse and investors will see that it is indeed 'rat poison'.

But hey, even rat poison can be a vehicle for speculation. You just have to convince enough people that it's worth buying (even if they have no practical use for it). I heard from a reliable source that rat poison is an effective treatment for Covid-19...
We don't want good, sound arguments. We want arguments that sound good.
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