Originally Posted by
The Don
Sadly party tribalism is such that the motion is likely to fail IMO as no Conservative would dare vote for it for fear of losing the whip/
They don't have to vote for it. If Labour, SNP, LibDem ChUK, Cymru and Greens gather all their strength they have 301 votes. All they need to do is to get 38 abstinentions from Tories, DUP and independents and the motion passes.
The calculation above counts all independents as Tory Brexiteers, near as I can tell they're more likely to support the motion than oppose it. If all threw their weight behind the motion you just need 6 abstinentions.
Realistically you need more because you won't have all of your MPs present and voting for the motion, but the same goes for Tories. I reckon twenty or so abstinentions with none voting in favor should be enough, if you could get forty that's plenty and should be enough no matter what Theresa May, BJ or anyone else does or says.
McHrozni