International Skeptics Forum - View Single Post - [Continuation] The One Covid-19 Science and Medicine Thread Part 2

Skeptic Ginger · 28th June 2020, 01:35 PM

Originally Posted by TellyKNeasuss

If a sufficient percentage of people are vaccinated, the virus will eventually die out as it becomes too difficult to find new hosts to infect. I would think that it would take at most 2 vaccination cycles. Unless there is a non-human reservoir for the virus that can transmit it back to us.

When pathogens have a worldwide reservoir of humans (not even looking at if any animal reservoirs exist), you're not going to wipe it out unless you can track down and eliminate the spread everywhere in the world.

We're trying very hard to do that with polio which we know only has a human reservoir and we've yet to achieve success.

With good vaccine coverage in the US, Canada, the UK and the EU we might be able to eliminate it in those countries but we'd still have to monitor for cases introduced and do extensive contact tracing should that occur.

From experience with other highly contagious pathogens we probably need about 90-95% vaccine coverage (provided the vaccine is highly effective). Anti-vaxxers are preventing that level of coverage for measles allowing cases to be introduced and spread on a regular basis.

28th June 2020, 01:35 PM	#110
Skeptic Ginger Nasty Woman Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 86,762	Originally Posted by TellyKNeasuss If a sufficient percentage of people are vaccinated, the virus will eventually die out as it becomes too difficult to find new hosts to infect. I would think that it would take at most 2 vaccination cycles. Unless there is a non-human reservoir for the virus that can transmit it back to us. When pathogens have a worldwide reservoir of humans (not even looking at if any animal reservoirs exist), you're not going to wipe it out unless you can track down and eliminate the spread everywhere in the world. We're trying very hard to do that with polio which we know only has a human reservoir and we've yet to achieve success. With good vaccine coverage in the US, Canada, the UK and the EU we might be able to eliminate it in those countries but we'd still have to monitor for cases introduced and do extensive contact tracing should that occur. From experience with other highly contagious pathogens we probably need about 90-95% vaccine coverage (provided the vaccine is highly effective). Anti-vaxxers are preventing that level of coverage for measles allowing cases to be introduced and spread on a regular basis.