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Old 28th June 2020, 04:36 PM   #119
JeanTate
Illuminator
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Posts: 4,001
Thanks.

Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Sure they do, and poverty might be a factor as well.
Glad we agree on that then.

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Originally Posted by JeanTate
Originally Posted by TA
We can be fairly sure the IFR will be within margin of error of 0.5%.
Doesn’t the IFR depend on things like age structure of a population? Availability of appropriate medical facilities and capabilities (care, testing, etc)?
Not when you're looking at an overall rate, no.

Obviously some groups will do better than others, but the world IFR at the end of Covid looks like 0.5%. That could change, depending what happens next, but if things continue as they are, without major shift in the virus, the range is fairly well agreed to be in the 0.2-1.0%.
So "0.2-1.0%" is "within margin of error of 0.5%"?

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We are very sure that 90% of cases are never counted, which means that it's not 80% of disease that's mild, it's 98% are asymptomatic or very mildly symptomatic.
Nonsense.
Except it's not nonsense at all, but established by various studies.

USA - the CDC estimates ten times more infections than positive tests.

Germany - Bonn University conducted a rigorous study and found the same.

There are other studies going right back to February, so let me know if you need more convincing.
I need a LOT more convincing ...

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The rest is simple maths - if 20% of x = y, then 2% of 10x = y as well.

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Take Iceland:
Nope. Iceland, NZ, Taiwan & a few other islands are outliers and don't conform.

You accuse me of posting nonsense, then try to use an example making up 0.001% of total infections when we have the other 99.999% to work with.

<snip>
Per WHO, estimated "missing" (your "90%") for places we might think have reliable data, and IFR=0.5%, ranges from ~8% (Iceland) to ~96% (Netherlands). Then there's Singapore (26 deaths, 43k cases) and Vietnam (0 deaths, 365 cases; population ~97 million). Oh, and that utterly insignificant place called China ...

Here's a simple model, for a nasty infectious disease:
- it kills everyone 70 and over, but no one under 70 (except those with condition X)
- it kills all those with condition X (BMI>40, perhaps), but no one else (under 70)

* On Island A ("young, healthy"), everyone is under 70, and no one has X
What is the IFR?

* On Island B ("old, unhealthy"), everyone is 70 or over and everyone has X
What is the IFR?

* On Island C ("young, unhealthy"), everyone is under 70, and half have X
What is the IFR?

* the world comprises Islands A, B, and C only; pre-nasty infectious disease, their populations were equal.
Post nasty disease, what is the global IFR?

Then there's Vitamin D ... if "the world IFR at the end of Covid looks like 0.5%", Vitamin D won't make any difference, will it?

Suggestion: re-read your original post (the one I first responded to), and see how many examples of poor logic you can find. Here's a good example: "We are very sure that 90% of cases are never counted, which means that it's not 80% of disease that's mild, it's 98% are asymptomatic or very mildly symptomatic." News flash: there are reliable media items galore about people who were sick, with symptoms that resembled those of Covid-19, but who were not tested, so they did not get counted as a Covid-19 "case" ....
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