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Old 13th November 2012, 06:27 AM   #4074
tsig
a carbon based life-form
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 39,049
Originally Posted by Jabba View Post
Humots,
- Unfortunately, I don't follow the reasoning.
- Agreed that there is only one event in our little scenario, but there are two ways that event could have happened -- either you drew from the Ace deck or you drew from the normal deck.
- If the overall probability of first selecting the ace deck and then drawing an ace from it is 2%, and the overall probability of first selecting the normal deck and then drawing an ace from it is almost 8%, why can't we conclude that the 2nd way is almost 4 times as likely to be the way it actually happened?
--- Jabba
Are you claiming the shroud was used as a table cover during a poker game?

Last edited by tsig; 13th November 2012 at 06:28 AM.
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