Originally Posted by
Jabba
Humots,
- Unfortunately, I don't follow the reasoning.
- Agreed that there is only one event in our little scenario, but there are two ways that event could have happened -- either you drew from the Ace deck or you drew from the normal deck.
- If the overall probability of first selecting the ace deck and then drawing an ace from it is 2%, and the overall probability of first selecting the normal deck and then drawing an ace from it is almost 8%, why can't we conclude that the 2nd way is almost 4 times as likely to be the way it actually happened?
--- Jabba
Your statistic arguments are as weak as your pseudo lawyer debate style.