Originally Posted by

**caveman1917**
Because my position isn't actually that clear-cut down to the exact percentage points, it may as well be, for example, 45% mainstream, 45% MIHOP, 10% other. Hence why I gave the more general description of the probability mass being about equally concentrated in mainstream and MIHOP, with a small probability covering everything else.

In other words, you have no idea what happened, and you're just trying to conceal that behind a smokescreen of obscure and irrelevant mathematics.