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Old 6th July 2020, 10:54 PM   #265
Penultimate Amazing
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Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Yokohama, Japan
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
China has contracted with Canada for their phase 3 trials for this very reason. Since rates of natural exposure in China are way down, there really isn't a good control group. Canada has a high enough rate still that some exposure can be expected in the vaccinated and unvaccinated groups.
Since there are already over 1 million recovered patients in the USA alone, a trial should be relatively easy to conduct.

Recruit X number of recovered patients and an equal number of people who haven't had it yet to be a control group.

Exactly how large X needs to be should be a matter for the statistics people to figure out. But the larger, the better.

For this trial you don't need to administer any drugs or placebos, you just need people to agree to be tested every few weeks or so.

Make the control group as close as possible demographically and geographically as the study group. Over time, presumably, some fraction of the control group will test positive. If nobody from the study group, or a significantly smaller fraction than the control group tests positive, you know that they have some immunity or at least resistance to reinfection.
A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool.
William Shakespeare
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