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Trump could win presidency: Yes or No?

Nov 4 place your bets

  • Trump will win, 100%

    Votes: 42 16.9%

  • Hilary will win, 100%

    Votes: 82 32.9%

  • Trump will win, but I'm worried Hil might triumph

    Votes: 9 3.6%

  • Hilary will win, but I'm scared the chances.

    Votes: 116 46.6%
  • Total voters
    249
The Atheist said:
Well, if he were any sort of successful businessman, they would.

They don't because he isn't.
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I heard an ad on satellite radio yesterday for some right wing station, and it was a clip of a guy ranting about how he is tired of the same families winning all the time, and he finishes with, "...maybe it is time to let a businessman be president?"

1) Yeah, right. If this was Jeb Bush vs Bernie Sanders, does anyone think he would be supporting Sanders? Not fooling anyone, and
2) OK, it's time to let a businessman be president. Can't we at least get a GOOD businessman to do it? Try to get Warren Buffet, maybe? If it is going to be a businessman, why would you choose Donald Trump?

Actually, I don't think this IS actually "a businessman" being president. Trump being president would be a case of "a reality TV star" being president. Hey, maybe it's time to let a reality TV star be president? It must be Trump, because Simon Cowell is not a natural born citizen...
 
pgwenthold said:
I heard an ad on satellite radio yesterday for some right wing station, and it was a clip of a guy ranting about how he is tired of the same families winning all the time, and he finishes with, "...maybe it is time to let a businessman be president?"
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Isn't it presently all of once that the same family has won the presidency twice?
 
The Atheist said:
Well, if he were any sort of successful businessman, they would.

They don't because he isn't.
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Exactly.

I was also thinking of this from a leadership point of view. Most CEOs see their role as leaders. I talk to a lot of them and they seem obsessed with management self help books and leadership structure and generally trying to be the best leader possible. I'm no expert, but the best ones seem to be those who can inspire their people to push their own boundaries while the other end of the spectrum seem to rely on fear and threats to get things done.

Trump reminds me more of the person who uses threats and fear to get what they want.
 
pgwenthold said:
Hey, maybe it's time to let a reality TV star be president?
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I would rescind the Natural Born Citizen clause if we could have Mary Berry as president.

In return, the UK can have its pick of the Kardashians. Hell, take two. Please.
 
RecoveringYuppy said:
Thanks, how'd I miss that? Still, unless you're 240 it's kind of hard to cite them as something you're tired of.
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And neither of JQ Adams's brothers ran for President. Thomas was a rep in the Mass assembly, but it seems his family was not proud (his father "disowned" him according to Wikipedia).

Charles died from alcohol at the age of 30, so was never eligible to run for president.
 
pgwenthold said:
2) OK, it's time to let a businessman be president. Can't we at least get a GOOD businessman to do it? Try to get Warren Buffet, maybe? If it is going to be a businessman, why would you choose Donald Trump?
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Because he's the one who got nominated.
 
Axiom_Blade said:
Because he's the one who got nominated.
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Wrong.

A good businessman has no incentive, and lots of disincentives in getting into politics. Those who are usually well past their prime, aka Michael Bloomberg. Barring The Apprentice, 95% of USA wouldn't know Don Trump from a hole in the ground.

The whole idea that Trump is a businessman, or that business has anything to do with his political success is completely flawed.

He's a TV star, not a businessman.

Jesus, you do realise Reagan was president and that these guys were elected to public office? Jesse Ventura, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Clint Eastwood. Being on TV/film is a hell of a lot better indicator of popularity than any kind of success.
 
pgwenthold said:
But if you want to nominate a businessman, why Trump? He isn't anywhere in the top list of options you would want, is he?
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We don't draft them, though, they need to volunteer. Trump volunteered, thus became one of the options from which we could chose.
 
Jrrarglblarg said:
We don't draft them, though, they need to volunteer. Trump volunteered, thus became one of the options from which we could chose.
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Precisely.

This is something I keep pointing out to people: You only have 4 choices on your ballot. If you want to vote for a businessman, your choice is Trump.

Now, I think that's a dumb way to pick a president, but what do I know? A lot of people think I'm crazy because I'm voting for Jill Stein. :D
 
Axiom_Blade said:
Precisely.

This is something I keep pointing out to people: You only have 4 choices on your ballot. If you want to vote for a businessman, your choice is Trump.

Now, I think that's a dumb way to pick a president, but what do I know? A lot of people think I'm crazy because I'm voting for Jill Stein. :D
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And if you only had the choice of Trump or Hillary who would you vote for? Or would you not vote?

Do you not consider your vote for Jill Stein as helping or hurting either Trump or Hillary?

One key reason I would vote for Trump (if I could) is because he is not afraid to say that there are problems that need a fix, and that it will not be business (Hillary monkey-business?) as usual.

How many businessmen are supporting Trump - thinking their business will get favorable treatment?

Would I vote for Lloyd Blankfein? No. Here is a businessman who sells financial instruments and takes out insurance because he knows they are so bad. His company was responsible for the financial mess Greece is in.

Warren Buffett? All he knows is investing for the long-term. He will get nothing done.

Michael Bloomberg? I wonder why he does not run. Too cozy to Wall Street? He is the ultimate elite as the worlds 8th richest man.

Any other possible businessmen (or businesswomen)?
 
Most of the liberal media have taken to reporting old Trump one-liners, usually out of context.

To find out what political speeches Trump is giving I have to go to the internet.

This one seems quite balance and typical of past politicing. (Hence not newsworthy!)

Here is a limited selection ignored by mainstream media. Trump has definitely pivoted, but you would not know it if you rely on the mainstream media

http://www.kcci.com/politics/donald-trump-speaks-at-joni-ernsts-2nd-annual-roast-and-ride/41400468

2016-08-27_DES MOINES, Iowa —Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump spoke at Joni Ernst’s annual Roast and Ride Saturday afternoon.

...The Big Banks and Wall Street donors who want nothing to change are throwing millions and millions at my opponent. These are the same people who paid Bill and Hillary Clinton $150 million for speeches. Hillary Clinton’s campaign is all about protecting the powerful. Our campaign is about protecting those who have no power.

...There are millions of African-Americans in this country who have succeeded so greatly and who deserve a government that protects and honors their incredible contribution. But we also have to talk about the millions of African-Americans who remain trapped in poverty and failing schools.

...By the way, how quickly people have forgotten that Hillary Clinton called black youth “super-predators,” and how insulted they were.

...African-Americans have given so much to this country. They’ve fought and died in every war since the Revolution. They’ve lifted up the conscience of our nation in the Civil Rights movement. They’ve sacrificed so much for the national good. Now is the time to put a new agenda into action that expands opportunity, ensures equality, and that protects the rights of each and every citizen.

...These laws were passed to protect American citizens and lawful residents. For instance, federal law protects the ability of American workers to seek jobs and employment. When government suspends those immigration laws in order to curry favor with special interests – costing Americans their jobs – they have been denied the protection of their laws. In recent days, the media – as it usually does – has missed the whole point on immigration. All the media wants to talk about is the 11 million or more people here illegally.
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Is Trump talking about the banks that he owes hundreds of millions to? And he complains about speaking fees?
Talk about who is in who's pocket.
 
PartSkeptic said:
Most of the liberal media have taken to reporting old Trump one-liners, usually out of context.

To find out what political speeches Trump is giving I have to go to the internet.

This one seems quite balance and typical of past politicing. (Hence not newsworthy!)

Here is a limited selection ignored by mainstream media. Trump has definitely pivoted, but you would not know it if you rely on the mainstream media
Click to expand...

Oh, cry me a river!

The media MADE the Trump candidacy. They covered full speeches as though they were news events, fer crissake.

They aren't currently covering his every speech because his every speech is pretty much the same as his speech the night before. They've been dodging the "Big Immigration Speech" they promised and they finally trotted it out in Iowa. And it got coverage. It's been mentioned on all the news channels and, as usual, you can find simulcasts via the Trump Youtube channel if you actually want to hear it.

This applies to every speech. I was interested in seeing a "full show" so I watched his Austin speech, in total, the other day.

He has the exact same coverage as Hillary gets. Every word is available.

Are you complaining that they don't make their six speeches a week into 90 minute news events? We have more information available in this election cycle than we've ever had.
 
PartSkeptic said:
Most of the liberal media have taken to reporting old Trump one-liners, usually out of context.

To find out what political speeches Trump is giving I have to go to the internet.

This one seems quite balance and typical of past politicing. (Hence not newsworthy!)

Here is a limited selection ignored by mainstream media. Trump has definitely pivoted, but you would not know it if you rely on the mainstream media
Click to expand...

Taking one part of your quote:

By the way, how quickly people have forgotten that Hillary Clinton called black youth “super-predators,” and how insulted they were.
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Firstly she was referring to a small number of gang members - but let's gloss over that.

How can someone complain about "how quickly people have forgotten" when the comment was made 20 years ago :rolleyes:
 
PartSkeptic said:
And if you only had the choice of Trump or Hillary who would you vote for? Or would you not vote?

Do you not consider your vote for Jill Stein as helping or hurting either Trump or Hillary?

One key reason I would vote for Trump (if I could) is because he is not afraid to say that there are problems that need a fix, and that it will not be business (Hillary monkey-business?) as usual.

How many businessmen are supporting Trump - thinking their business will get favorable treatment?

Would I vote for Lloyd Blankfein? No. Here is a businessman who sells financial instruments and takes out insurance because he knows they are so bad. His company was responsible for the financial mess Greece is in.

Warren Buffett? All he knows is investing for the long-term. He will get nothing done.

Michael Bloomberg? I wonder why he does not run. Too cozy to Wall Street? He is the ultimate elite as the worlds 8th richest man.

Any other possible businessmen (or businesswomen)?
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No offense, but this is total nonsense. It also demonstrates perhaps your entire misunderstanding of the American system of Government. But to be frank, with you, you're not the only one with this misunderstanding. It seems like everyone has it.

1. The President is nowhere near as powerful as you think it it is except in foreign relations. In fact, the framers of the Constitution deliberately made it the weakest branch of the American government as we were breaking away from the Monarchist form of government. Pretty much, all legislation starts in the House and Senate. If you really want to see corruption in all its glorious forms, there is no greater example than the US. Congress.

2. You also seem entirely unwilling to recognize that Trump DOESN'T HAVE A CLUE what is wrong with the US Government. In fact, I have NEVER EVER EVER SEEN a more poorly educated and less informed candidate.

It's not that I think Trump is a moron. I don't. But what I do believe is that Trump thinks he can understand virtually everything without studying it. This makes him more dangerous. Wise people understand that they don't know enough and study as well as rely on other smart people. Trump for example, said he knew more about ISIS than our American Generals "because he has a very good brain".

3.Making a "business man" President isn't as great an idea that so many people think it is because a government isn't a business. It's not like one of Trump's failed casinos where you can declare bankruptcy 4 times and not think that you won't hurt a hell of a lot of people.

4. Can you imagine what effect it would have on the world economy if the US defaulted on its debts and told the world that we would only pay back pennies on the dollar as Trump has suggested?

5.Trump has NEVER been that good of businessman. If he was, his companies wouldn't have the reputation of stiffing so many of their vendors.

I'm really glad I have a vote in this election and you don't. But I wouldn't let that trouble you too much as I live in a State where Hillary will probably win by 15 points so it's not like my vote will make that much difference.
 
acbytesla said:
It's not that I think Trump is a moron. I don't. But what I do believe is that Trump thinks he can understand virtually everything without studying it. This makes him more dangerous.
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I'd rather say he thinks he can find the right person for every task and delegate on them, what can work in business but hardly in high politics, specially as he managed to scare suitable collaborators and is set to operate on a trial and error basis.

He just assumes the role of know-it-all for the campaign as candidates for father of everyone are required to be Robert Young and Bill Cosby together. He'll end up being Ed O'Neill most probably.
 
As what's behind in social terms is not being discussed anywhere in this subforum, I'd like to share this findings of Quinnipiac's poll from last August 25th:

  • American likely voters give both candidates negative favorability ratings, 41 – 53 percent for Clinton and 33 – 61 percent for Trump. In fact, 37 percent of likely voters say they would consider voting for a third party candidate.
  • In this very negative race, 64 percent of Trump supporters say they are voting mainly anti-Clinton, while 25 percent say they are voting pro-Trump.
  • Among Clinton supporters, 47 percent are mainly anti-Trump while 32 percent are pro-Clinton.
  • While both candidates have negative scores on honesty, this is one area where Trump outscores Clinton. American likely voters say 53 – 42 percent that Trump is not honest. By a huge 66 – 29 percent margin, voters say Clinton is not honest.
  • But Clinton leads in other measures:
    • Voters say 66 – 33 percent that Clinton is qualified to be president. Trump is not qualified, voters say 58 – 40 percent
    • 58 – 40 that she has good leadership skills, compared to negative 46 – 52 for Trump
    • 71 – 29 percent that Clinton has the right kind of experience to be president, compared to a negative 32 – 65 percent for Trump.
    • 87 – 12 percent that she is intelligent, compared to 67 – 30 percent for him
    • 51 – 47 percent that she cares about average Americans, compared to a negative 41 – 57 percent for Trump
    • But American likely voters say 60 – 37 percent that Clinton believes she does not have to play by the same rules as everyone else.
To me it all boils down to the old dilemma: voting either a SOB or a stupid. Common sense says it's better to vote for a DOB.
 
aleCcowaN said:
I'd rather say he thinks he can find the right person for every task and delegate on them, what can work in business but hardly in high politics, specially as he managed to scare suitable collaborators and is set to operate on a trial and error basis.

He just assumes the role of know-it-all for the campaign as candidates for father of everyone are required to be Robert Young and Bill Cosby together. He'll end up being Ed O'Neill most probably.
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I'd say you are DEAD WRONG. Trump thinks he knows more than everyone that works for him. He can't stand people telling him he's wrong.

But if you believe that Trump knows how to hire and delegate why not look at his campaign. He has hired and fired one sycophant after another. It is by far the most dysfunctional campaign I can recall.
 
acbytesla said:
I'd say you are DEAD WRONG. Trump thinks he knows more than everyone that works for him. He can't stand people telling him he's wrong.

But if you believe that Trump knows how to hire and delegate why not look at his campaign. He has hired and fired one sycophant after another. It is by far the most dysfunctional campaign I can recall.
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What part of the trial and error basis didn't you get?

You'll probably overlooked it because of your I must be wrong so you can be right, which is officially now a pattern.
 
aleCcowaN said:
What part of the trial and error basis didn't you get?
.
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Trial and error? You know people have successfully run thousands of campaigns. Why would you think you have to reinvent the process?

There are some real experts at this and Trump hasn't hired or more importantly taken advice from anyone. Where are the ground operations? Or the micro targeting? Or the get out the vote operations? How about field offices in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania? How about ad buys in Swing States?

Every campaign professional will tell you that you have to pivot once you move to the General Election phase of an election which Trump has been in for about 5 months and just now he's starting to pivot or moderate his stances.

Who was Trump listening to when he continued a disastrous battle with a Gold Star family for 2 weeks?

Now just because I think you are wrong doesn't make you wrong. Maybe you're not, maybe I'm wrong. But these are the facts. I think they are very relevant to who Trump is.
 
acbytesla said:
Trial and error? You know people have successfully run thousands of campaigns. Why would you think you have to reinvent the process?

...

Now just because I think you are wrong doesn't make you wrong. Maybe you're not, maybe I'm wrong. But these are the facts. I think they are very relevant to who Trump is.
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I agree with most of what you said. But I think Trump has made a style of doing things "the different way". It's true he made a huge mistake falling in the trap around the Khans. He forgot it was not the same as pegging Cruz's father with Lee Harvey Oswald.

All those disastrous mistakes have him about 4-5 points behind Clinton and, as I quoted above, more people still think Clinton is a dishonest person, even many of her potential voters.

So far this campaign has shown all the miseries of Usaian politics and I have came to the understanding that the Republic of the United States of America is just what saves the country from the Democracy of the United States of America.
 
PartSkeptic said:
Here is a limited selection ignored by mainstream media. Trump has definitely pivoted, but you would not know it if you rely on the mainstream media
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Perhaps you are right, perhaps people who listen only to the mainstream media are not aware of Trump's pivot. But the problem is that people who listen only to GOP leaders and GOP candidates are also not aware of Trump's pivot. Congressional candidates are still avoiding him.
 
Trump will win and do a flip flop, become Democrat, make Democrat Himmlery his Chief of State. After that going on motor parades throwing piles of money out of out of his car with a pitchfork in all the states that supported him. He will nuke all the states that didn't support him. His slogan will be "Go Democrat or Die!!! They will make a movie about it called The Don, Wrath of Khan."
 
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aleCcowaN said:
I agree with most of what you said. But I think Trump has made a style of doing things "the different way". It's true he made a huge mistake falling in the trap around the Khans. He forgot it was not the same as pegging Cruz's father with Lee Harvey Oswald.

All those disastrous mistakes have him about 4-5 points behind Clinton and, as I quoted above, more people still think Clinton is a dishonest person, even many of her potential voters.
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Yes, he has. That is my point. I'm not going to tell him how to build a building or how to create a successful reality show. But he's clueless about winning the general election.

BTW, He's more like seven to ten points behind and the State by State polls are even worse which is the real contest. You can win the popular vote and still lose big in the Electoral College. . Right now Trump is down by 9 or more points in States representing 274 Electoral votes, enough to make Hillary President. So even if Trump wins every single State where he is within 8 points of Hillary he still loses.

And worse news for Trump is polling indicates 9 out of 10 voters have said their minds are made up. You would expect more like 25 percent of the electorate to be undecided at this point, but both these candidates are very well known.

I've spent years in marketing and sales and I've learned a few things along the way. And the one thing I can tell you for sure is that it is about ten to 20 times easier to get someone undecided to buy your product than to get someone to change.

Maybe I'm wrong, I've made mistakes before. But, unless something changes dramatically, I can't see a path for Trump to win.
 
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