1) One of the things you're missing is that "virtually zero" doesn't mean anything mathematical. But let's ignore that for now.
In the materialist model, the one you claim to be H in for P(E|H), 2) your current existence is a result of your parents having sex, you being conceived, you being born, and you surviving through today. Their existence is a result of similar circumstances with their parents, and similarly back to the first appearance of life on earth, which was itself the result of events we don't understand, which were in turn the results of other events going back to the beginning of time and the universe.
3) So depending on when you calculate the likelihood of your eventually existence, you might get a very small number. 4) But the same would be true of absolutely everything that exists now: every snowflake, every grain of sand, every piece of rock on every planet in the universe.
5) In the materialist model, your self is entirely the result of natural processes. It did not come from nowhere. Its relative unlikelihood at various points in history is no more significant than the unlikelihood that the formation we call Mount Rainier would one day exist in the form it currently exists in.