Iran: Anti-Government Protests

Pro-government demonstrations scheduled for Saturday.

I hope someone hides 45's phone over the weekend, this is going to be plenty contentious enough as it is.
 
"Death to Rouhani" seems like a bizarre thing to chant. The Iranian president doesn't have that much power. Wishing him dead is politically pointless.
 
"Death to Rouhani" seems like a bizarre thing to chant. The Iranian president doesn't have that much power. Wishing him dead is politically pointless.

That's not uncommon in "totalitarian" states though. In this case economics and government corruption appear to be a big part of the complaint, and blaming those a few steps down the ladder from the Supreme Leader and Revolutionary Guard is de rigeur for that.
 
Pro-government demonstrations scheduled for Saturday.


There seems to be some odd timing involved. State agency Fars News:

Pro-Gov't Rallies Vow Vigilance against US Plots to Stir Dissent in Iran

Fars News said:
[...] Millions of Iranians across the country poured to the streets on Saturday morning to commemorate the eighth anniversary of mass rallies held on December 30, 2009, to protect the Islamic Republic.

People in Tehran and other cities, including the religious cities of Mashhad and Qom, gathered in the streets, mosques and Mosalla prayers grounds to show allegiance to the Islamic Republic one day after tens of people staged economic protests in a few towns.

They chanted slogans to support Velayat Faqih (Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist) and against the US, Israel and Britain which played a pivotal role in the 2009 unrests in Iran.

The people also called on the judiciary system to try the leaders of 2009 unrests and asked the government to accelerate efforts to resolve the country's economic problems, including unemployment, inflation and poverty.

On December 30, 2009, pro-government rallies were staged by millions of Iranians after a group of opposition supporters - including those who took part in the post-election unrests in June - took advantage of the highly revered religious day of Ashoura on December 27 - the anniversary of the martyrdom of Imam Hossein (AS), the grandson of Prophet Mohammad (PBUH) and Shiite Muslims' third Imam - to chant slogans against top Iranian government officials. [...]


Whether we believe the "millions" and "tens" on both sides, seems the evil Empire agencies messed up the timing of their unrest, doesn't it? ;)
 
Pro-government demonstrations scheduled for Saturday.

I hope someone hides 45's phone over the weekend, this is going to be plenty contentious enough as it is.

He copied Sarah Sanders' Tweet with a couple changes (posted in the Trump POTUS thread).
 
"Death to Rouhani" seems like a bizarre thing to chant. The Iranian president doesn't have that much power. Wishing him dead is politically pointless.

Damn I thought that said "Death To Rihanna". Oh well.

So who are the good guys in all of this? Is there a good side? What (do we westerners think) is best for the people of Iran?
 
So who are the good guys in all of this? Is there a good side? What (do we westerners think) is best for the people of Iran?
Both sets of actions sound like stunts to me ... domestic theater. I have a hard time picturing someone seriously shouting "Marg bar Rouhani."

Just stopped to look something up. He tried to get people to stop the "Death to America" chant. So "Death to Rouhani" might mean, "Who is he to tell us who to wish death on? We will wish death on whomever we please!"

But "death to the dictator" and "death to Rouhani" are pretty much mutually exclusive chants.

It sounds like a dispute on how "interventionist" Iran should be in the region. Rouhani declared Islamic State dead in November ... thereby possibly downplaying the continuing "need" for further Iranian interventionism ... which possibly upsets the hard-liners who have been energized by the fight against ISIS and wish to continue fighting in Yemen ... which is all a giant guess.
 
Both sets of actions sound like stunts to me ... domestic theater. I have a hard time picturing someone seriously shouting "Marg bar Rouhani."

Just stopped to look something up. He tried to get people to stop the "Death to America" chant. So "Death to Rouhani" might mean, "Who is he to tell us who to wish death on? We will wish death on whomever we please!"

But "death to the dictator" and "death to Rouhani" are pretty much mutually exclusive chants.

It sounds like a dispute on how "interventionist" Iran should be in the region. Rouhani declared Islamic State dead in November ... thereby possibly downplaying the continuing "need" for further Iranian interventionism ... which possibly upsets the hard-liners who have been energized by the fight against ISIS and wish to continue fighting in Yemen ... which is all a giant guess.
Speaking from some personal experience and not just news-based stereotypes, you're wrong. My parents lived in Iran for a year just before the Shah was overthrown.

Iran has a significant modern, educated normal population, especially in Tehran. Unfortunately there are also the brainwashed religious revolutionaries that took over the country in 70s with the overthrow of the Shah.

There are plenty of people who are willing to actually protest the government. And when they do, there are religious government supporting thugs that indeed stand up against the protesters and they use violence to do so.

This is not for show. The faction that would like to see the country return to modernity are not an insignificant force.

But it is unlikely they are ready yet to have another revolution. OTOH, the government is not a completely secure dictatorship. They know there is a tightrope they need to walk.
 
Speaking from some personal experience and not just news-based stereotypes, you're wrong. My parents lived in Iran for a year just before the Shah was overthrown.

Iran has a significant modern, educated normal population, especially in Tehran. Unfortunately there are also the brainwashed religious revolutionaries that took over the country in 70s with the overthrow of the Shah.

There are plenty of people who are willing to actually protest the government. And when they do, there are religious government supporting thugs that indeed stand up against the protesters and they use violence to do so.

This is not for show. The faction that would like to see the country return to modernity are not an insignificant force.

But it is unlikely they are ready yet to have another revolution. OTOH, the government is not a completely secure dictatorship. They know there is a tightrope they need to walk.

May it be tied around their necks and thrown over a lamp post.
 
Speaking from some personal experience and not just news-based stereotypes, you're wrong. My parents lived in Iran for a year just before the Shah was overthrown.
I've been there a lot more recently than that.

Iran has a significant modern, educated normal population, especially in Tehran. Unfortunately there are also the brainwashed religious revolutionaries that took over the country in 70s with the overthrow of the Shah.
"Death to Rouhani" is a strange thing to chant. I'm open to possible explanations, but he is not a hard-liner unless he's very well disguised. IMO, someone internally is trying to undermine him. Unless ... someone is trying to boost his profile? Could be.

There are plenty of people who are willing to actually protest the government. And when they do, there are religious government supporting thugs that indeed stand up against the protesters and they use violence to do so.
So Saturday's demonstrations were for show?

This is not for show. The faction that would like to see the country return to modernity are not an insignificant force.
Chanting "Death to Rouhani" makes about as much sense now as someone chanting "Death to Khatami" in 2003.

I'll always say when I'm guessing, but please understand that what any outsider thinks is happening in Iran is not the whole story, to put it mildly. I'm not basing my opinions on news-fueled stereotypes.
 
I've been there a lot more recently than that.

"Death to Rouhani" is a strange thing to chant. I'm open to possible explanations, but he is not a hard-liner unless he's very well disguised. IMO, someone internally is trying to undermine him. Unless ... someone is trying to boost his profile? Could be.

So Saturday's demonstrations were for show?

Chanting "Death to Rouhani" makes about as much sense now as someone chanting "Death to Khatami" in 2003.

I'll always say when I'm guessing, but please understand that what any outsider thinks is happening in Iran is not the whole story, to put it mildly. I'm not basing my opinions on news-fueled stereotypes.

People get killed in these demonstrations. How the hell does someone orchestrate anti-government demonstrations across the country for "show"? That's ludicrous.

From the BBC account in the OP.
Anti-government demonstrations that began in Iran on Thursday have now spread to several major cities.

Large numbers reportedly turned out in Rasht, in the north, and Kermanshah, in the west, with smaller protests in Isfahan, Hamadan and elsewhere.

The protests began against rising prices but have spiralled into a general outcry against clerical rule and government policies.

A small number of people have been arrested in Tehran, the capital.

They were among a group of 50 people who gathered in a city square, Tehran's deputy governor-general for security affairs told the Iranian Labour News Agency.

At the moment:
Overall, the numbers said to be taking part range from a less than 100 in some places to thousands in others - but demonstrations do not appear to be taking place on a massive scale.
 
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About the odd timing and slogans:

Al Monitor said:
[...] It has not been lost on observers that the initial protests featured relatively rare chants, such as “Death to Rouhani.” Mashhad is home to conservative cleric Ebrahim Raisi, Rouhani’s main rival in the May 2017 presidential election, and Raisi’s father-in-law, radical cleric Ahmad Alamolhoda, who has defied governmental authority on matters such as the holding of concerts. In this vein, the protests erupted one day after the Tehran police chief announced, in a seismic policy shift, that women would no longer be arrested over “improper veiling” but rather sent to educational classes.

Referring to Rouhani’s conservative rivals, First Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri said, “When a social and political movement is launched on the streets, those who started it will not necessarily be able to control it in the end.” He added, “Those who are behind such events will burn their own fingers. They think they will hurt the government by doing so.”

Apart from targeting high prices, chants at the rallies have also included criticism of Iran’s involvement abroad. But these slogans are not new; they predate Iran’s involvement in Iraq and Syria. Such slogans also clash with surveys that show the Iranian public strongly supports the deployment of military personnel to aid the regime of Bashar al-Assad.

Thus, rather than focusing on the idea of a conservative ploy to undermine Rouhani or that foreign policy is the driver of discontent, one should perhaps focus on the main grievance of the protesters — namely, "high prices." [...]


This of course is the goal of the vicious sanctions on countries like this: Make the people suffer to rise up against the government. Famously, half a million Iraqi kids was worth it for the monstrous Madeleine Albright. Here, the protests are tiny and we would never know about them if it weren't for a small sign that the bullying of the people has any effect. Otherwise the news would be full with the massive protests in countries like Bahrain and Yemen every other day.
 
People get killed in these demonstrations. How the hell does someone orchestrate anti-government demonstrations across the country for "show"? That's ludicrous.
I'm specifically wondering about chants of "Marg bar Rouhani." It makes no sense to me. Someone asking Khamenei to step down? That makes sense. Rouhani is a reformer by all accounts.

There is something else going on here. I'm trying to find possible explanations. Maybe someone is trying to undercut the moderate elements within Iran's power structure, or trying to ensure that Rouhani and Khamenei are painted by the same broad brush internationally. It won't work on many audiences but it might work in the U.S.
 
Iran has a significant modern, educated normal population, especially in Tehran.

This needs to be qualified. What you're talking about under the Shah (who was a massive twerp) was a tiny urban elite mostly in Teheran often benefitting directly from his rule. Tertiary education rates were VERY low, and are in fact much higher today.

Mohammad Reza, like all CIA-installed dictators, had a tiny sliver of cronies and "outward examples" that benefitted from his rule. And then a massive population that he ignored. He laid the ground for the revolution by stomping down hard on left-wing antimonarchist movements while giving religious authorities a great deal of autonomy in the many regions.

And, in general, by being a clueless twerp.
 
There seems to be some odd timing involved. State agency Fars News:

Pro-Gov't Rallies Vow Vigilance against US Plots to Stir Dissent in Iran




Whether we believe the "millions" and "tens" on both sides, seems the evil Empire agencies messed up the timing of their unrest, doesn't it? ;)



I'm reminded of the arrest and trial of Net York mobster John Gotti, and there was a "protest" of his arrest by over 100 young men, most likely all thugs in their operations.

With no free press there's no way to judge any of that, but I wouldn't be holding my breath there are masses of people protesting in favor of their oppressors without some kind of coercion or benefit (like they're part of the ruling elite and their families.)
 
That was in 1979, nearly 40 years ago. According to the numbers on this wiki page, about 55 million out of a total of 80 million Iranians, i.e., around 70%, were not even born back then.
I was just thinking about that, plus, a lot of pro-Shah Iranians left when he fell. Others left as the theocracy rose. There probably aren't a lot of people left who really remember pre-Revolution days.

Around the last election, a New Yorker reporter found herself detained and grilled about her expenses. She was very afraid for some of her sources, but the thing the officials seemed really touchy about conversations she had with ordinary people about the price of chicken. They ended up keeping all of her receipts while seeming unconcerned about interviews with political dissidents.
 
This needs to be qualified. What you're talking about under the Shah (who was a massive twerp) was a tiny urban elite mostly in Teheran often benefitting directly from his rule. Tertiary education rates were VERY low, and are in fact much higher today.

Mohammad Reza, like all CIA-installed dictators, had a tiny sliver of cronies and "outward examples" that benefitted from his rule. And then a massive population that he ignored. He laid the ground for the revolution by stomping down hard on left-wing antimonarchist movements while giving religious authorities a great deal of autonomy in the many regions.

And, in general, by being a clueless twerp.

Goodness me, that is a bizarre belief.

I don't even know where to start. Maybe I'll give it a go tomorrow.
 
Goodness me, that is a bizarre belief.

I don't even know where to start. Maybe I'll give it a go tomorrow.

So let me be clear then: I'm not denying that there are many highly educated people in Iran, who are "modern" in some meaningful sense. What I am denying is that the experience among the urban elite in Teheran before the revolution would meaningfully represent "modern Iranians", or that they represented a significant part of the population back then.
 
So let me be clear then: I'm not denying that there are many highly educated people in Iran, who are "modern" in some meaningful sense. What I am denying is that the experience among the urban elite in Teheran before the revolution would meaningfully represent "modern Iranians", or that they represented a significant part of the population back then.
I understood your issue, it's wrong, IMO, but it will take more time than I have tonight to address.
 
I was just thinking about that, plus, a lot of pro-Shah Iranians left when he fell. Others left as the theocracy rose. There probably aren't a lot of people left who really remember pre-Revolution days.
Indeed, and the educated liberal progressive people really only had a year they could breath, in between the deposing of the Shah and when Khomeini firmly took the reins.

Around the last election, a New Yorker reporter found herself detained and grilled about her expenses. She was very afraid for some of her sources, but the thing the officials seemed really touchy about conversations she had with ordinary people about the price of chicken. They ended up keeping all of her receipts while seeming unconcerned about interviews with political dissidents.
I'm not surprised. Nothing motivates the people like letting them go hungry. Just ask Louis XVI of France or Nicholas II of Russia for the outcome.
 
This needs to be qualified. What you're talking about under the Shah (who was a massive twerp) was a tiny urban elite mostly in Teheran often benefitting directly from his rule. Tertiary education rates were VERY low, and are in fact much higher today.

Mohammad Reza, like all CIA-installed dictators, had a tiny sliver of cronies and "outward examples" that benefitted from his rule. And then a massive population that he ignored. He laid the ground for the revolution by stomping down hard on left-wing antimonarchist movements while giving religious authorities a great deal of autonomy in the many regions.

And, in general, by being a clueless twerp.

Goodness me, that is a bizarre belief.

I don't even know where to start. Maybe I'll give it a go tomorrow.
I'd like to see Tubba flesh out the highlighted part - not because I don't believe him but because I'm curious about it.

In any case, it's a matter of fact that the religious opposition against the Shah's regime could freely organize itself under the guise of mosques and religious freedom, while the Shah did crack down on the secular, liberal opposition.

That's a pattern you see time and again. In Israel/Palestine, Hamas managed to organize itself and become a main competitor of Fatah (and oust them in Gaza) because they did so under the guise of religion. In the GDR, a significant part of the opposition against the regime organized itself under the guise of church meetings (and fortunately, there it didn't turn into theocratic extremism).
 
I'd like to see Tubba flesh out the highlighted part - not because I don't believe him but because I'm curious about it.

In any case, it's a matter of fact that the religious opposition against the Shah's regime could freely organize itself under the guise of mosques and religious freedom, while the Shah did crack down on the secular, liberal opposition.

I wish I had the means to give it the treatment it deserves. I have Kinzer's "All The Shah's Men" lying around, but I haven't gotten around to reading it. As you note, a significant issue was that the (warranted) secular critique could be harshly stamped out in the name of anti-Communism. Not so much for the religious opposition.

The Shah operated in a complicated environment. He tried to style himself as a "secular modernizer". He had two big issues - one, "secular modernizers" in the Muslim world that were succesful in some way or other (most notably Ataturk, also Nasser and maybe you could count Saddam Hussein as well, depending on your level of cynicism) defined themselves in defiance of the West. Whereas the Shah had been installed by the West, indeed replacing the "secular modernizer" who had a public mandate, Mohammed Mossadegh.

The second issue comes with the complicated issue of the Iranian identity. The sense of a continuous Iranian "nation" going back the way to Cyrus the Great can be traced at least to the Ilkhanate of the 14th century. The successors of Hulegu, looking to legitimize themselves, sponsored cultural works that painted an image of a land ruled by a succession of conquerors, starting with Cyrus and ending with Genghis Khan. The sheer destructiveness of the Mongol invasion probably created a bit of a cultural vacuum that could be filled this way. So this persisted to some degree and could be seized upon in the 19th and 20th centuries.

But really, much more tangibly, the modern Iranian state can be traced back to the 16th century, where Shah Isma'il conquered Greater Iran, and was perceived at least in hindsight as a native ruler liberating Iran from the oppressive Turkmen (the Timurids, that is). Isma'il forcibly imposed Shia Islam, and what we find emerging is a national-religious idenitity that exists in opposition to the Ottomans. That's also the origin of the modern Sunni-Shia split.

Of course some of the "succession of conqueror" mentality is also carried through this, culminating with Nader Shah, the "Last Great Asiatic Conqueror", who brought down the Mughal Empire. But what you end up with is very much a dual national culture, carrying both a strong Twelver Shia identity, and an ethnonationalist identity that celebrates its (supposed; the continuity is a bit shaky) pre-Islamic origins.

This leaves a minefield for any modern leader to navigate, and it seems to have forced Mohammad Reza, lacking genuine populist legitimacy, to make a lot of concessions in the rural parts of the country. I think it's ultimately dangerous to think of the Islamic Revolution as coming from "a bunch of nutters". Khomeini, having been heavily influenced by nationalist movements in Europe, seems to have been the one who managed to successfully unify the ethno-national and religious characters of Iran. It really cannot be overstated how much he created a "new direction" for much of the Muslim world, that became even more relevant in the post-Soviet era.

It's very much a land of paradoxes, as the current political situation should make abundantly clear. And that's not even getting into the complicated place of Azerbaijani Turks and "Turko-Persian/Persianate" society...
 
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I think people tend to underestimate the influence of the Iranian president. The name of the country, "Islamic Republic of..." is chosen well, it is a republic as is the USA, just with the Quran instead of the Constitution. Inside the spectrum allowed by that overwriting ideology (as interpreted by the Ayatollahs), there is more than enough room for politics to make the normal citizens feel the difference. And the terms used to describe the actors are often misleading, like calling Rouhani a "reformer" and Ahmadinedjad a "hardliner". These are first of all economic terms from a western perspective. After all, Rouhani is a cleric, while Ahmadinedjad is a civil engineer. And Ahmadinedjad was giving money to the poor as if thrown from a helicopter, bordering on what we know as unconditional basic income. While Rouhani made some reforms rolling these benefits back, whose effects are now reaching the poor.
 
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And the terms used to describe the actors are often misleading, like calling Rouhani a "reformer" and Ahmadinedjad a "hardliner". These are first of all economic terms from a western perspective.
I don't know what those terms would mean in economic terms. For popular consumption a "hardliner" will be someone belligerent toward the U.S. while "moderate" or "reformist" would have a more conciliatory view. The politicians have influence, maybe not quite the same thing as "power."

How any of this translates into domestic policy, I don't know. Executions are up under Rouhani, but whether he has a role is hard to tell.
 
I don't know what those terms would mean in economic terms. For popular consumption a "hardliner" will be someone belligerent toward the U.S. while "moderate" or "reformist" would have a more conciliatory view. The politicians have influence, maybe not quite the same thing as "power."

How any of this translates into domestic policy, I don't know. Executions are up under Rouhani, but whether he has a role is hard to tell.

I mean, Rouhani is a senior cleric, so I suspect he has a better chance at reform than most others.
 
It's true that President and Parliament have more real influence than many in the West allow, and that they get elected in competitive elections, which are not totally rigged.

But both are still controlled by non-republican power institutions: the revolutionary leader, the clergy, and notably the Revolutionary Guards. All candidates are vetted by the non-democratic players. "Reform" is about whether there can be a sustained changed in constitutional power where the people can pick candidates actually oppesed to clergy and military.
 
Social media is overflowing with deceptive use of imagery. German prime time news fell for 2009 footage and had to apologize. Here four other examples from three twitter activists and ... no, make that four twitter activists including the HRW propagandist Kenneth Roth, who posted images of the pro-government rallies.
 
I mean, Rouhani is a senior cleric, so I suspect he has a better chance at reform than most others.
A New Yorker article said something like, Iran has 18 political parties - all to the right of Newt Gingrich.

Every now and then leaders lighten up some, allow fashions to get a little bolder, allow a bit of dissent around the edges, but if things get too critical of the regime the hammer falls.
 
A New Yorker article said something like, Iran has 18 political parties - all to the right of Newt Gingrich.

Every now and then leaders lighten up some, allow fashions to get a little bolder, allow a bit of dissent around the edges, but if things get too critical of the regime the hammer falls.

It's true that President and Parliament have more real influence than many in the West allow, and that they get elected in competitive elections, which are not totally rigged.

But both are still controlled by non-republican power institutions: the revolutionary leader, the clergy, and notably the Revolutionary Guards. All candidates are vetted by the non-democratic players. "Reform" is about whether there can be a sustained changed in constitutional power where the people can pick candidates actually oppesed to clergy and military.

Yep. I don't see a foundational change happening without some serious unrest and a good deal of political violence. Even though I suspect power will slip from the office of Supreme Leader following Khamenei's likely not-too-distant death, the Revolutionary Guard will not go so easily.
 
Indeed, and the educated liberal progressive people really only had a year they could breath, in between the deposing of the Shah and when Khomeini firmly took the reins.


I'm not surprised. Nothing motivates the people like letting them go hungry. Just ask Louis XVI of France or Nicholas II of Russia for the outcome.

Isn't there some theory that you can predict the chances of a revolution by calculating the price of bread as a percentage of per-capita income?

Iranians are a lot more urban, a lot more educated and have a lot more access to media than in 1979, but if they can't get housing or a decently priced club-sandwich that might be a major catalyst.

I also suspect that Iran's external ambitions in Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and possibly Iraq are an expensive hobby.
 
The accusations against the US are now quite specific: Iran public prosecutor unveils plots behind street unrests

IRNA said:
[...] He said that the main mastermind of the plan was an American national named Michael Andrea who was a former CIA member in charge of combatting terrorism that formed the group to create unrest in the Islamic Republic of Iran.

"Michael Andrea along with an officer affiliated to Mossad spy agency where in charge of masterminding the plot while Saudi Arabia paid for all the expenses," he said.

Montazeri said that the plot dubbed as 'Consequential Convergence Doctrine' was designed based on the data gathered throughout years, adding that they conducted various scenarios such as protesting the high cost of living, high pay of bills and financial demands of the retired people.

They had offered two models named Tunisia and Libya and finally chose the latter which was to create waves of unrest from outside to the center, he added.

They had prepared two operation rooms in Ebril of Iraq and Herat in Afghanistan to create riots in Iran, he said. [...]


The "mastermind"'s real name is Michael D'AndreaWP and he isn't "former" CIA at all, but was appointed to head the agencies "Iran Mission Center" just half a year ago. His nickname is "Ayatollah Mike". :rolleyes:

The Iranians have also arrested three armed cells in the border region to Iraqi Kurdistan, likely (IMO) MEK freaks, and one near Azerbaijan.
 
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The accusations against the US are now quite specific: Iran public prosecutor unveils plots behind street unrests




The "mastermind"'s real name is Michael D'AndreaWP and he isn't "former" CIA at all, but was appointed to head the agencies "Iran Mission Center" just half a year ago. His nickname is "Ayatollah Mike". :rolleyes:

The Iranians have also arrested three armed cells in the border region to Iraqi Kurdistan, likely (IMO) MEK freaks, and one near Azerbaijan.

CIA or no CIA. If a government dictates what can be said and shown in movies, arrests teenagers for dancing and then borks the economy, there's political change on the way. One way or another.
 
There's an interesting exchange going on between a World Socialist Web Site author and the Paris correspondent of PressTV:

I learned a thing or two.

Study will certainly help to sharpen your revolutionary credentials, Eddie. ;)
 
There's an interesting exchange going on between a World Socialist Web Site author and the Paris correspondent of PressTV:

I learned a thing or two.

Study will certainly help to sharpen your revolutionary credentials, Eddie. ;)

I'll check it out later.

From what I've read elsewhere, Iran now has beef with both the liberal social-media savvy kids who are sick of theocracy and with the religious working class who want to buy some damned eggs at a reasonable price.

The protests seem to be under control now, but the underlying discontent remains.
 

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