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Old 5th December 2017, 05:38 AM   #321
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What happened to HGC .
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Old 6th December 2017, 04:09 PM   #322
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Originally Posted by hgc View Post
First of all, yes this topic needs its own thread. This is about the long-term trend in Donald Trump's position in this race relative to the competition for the GOP nomination.

The thread title is inspired by an event that Trump did yesterday in South Carolina where the room was not even half filled and the cable news networks gave scant live coverage. The purpose of this thread is to track Trump's progress in poll standings and speculate on his evolving chances of being the nominee.

I'm not saying that Trump is definitely not going to win this nomination. But if he's not going to win it, then we will see a slide somewhere, sometime. Has that slide started now? Trump is a creature of the obsessive coverage by the political and entertainment media, which is a milieu where he generally is the most capable exploiter of the features of the landscape. But when the media coverage starts to slacken, if for no other reason than that the entertainment gets stale, he's probably going to suffer in his popularity.

Thoughts?


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Old 22nd December 2017, 12:18 PM   #323
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Any day now...
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Old 20th March 2018, 05:31 PM   #324
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Slowest passing evah
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Old 16th May 2018, 11:01 AM   #325
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Have we passed Peak Trump yet?
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Old 16th May 2018, 11:46 AM   #326
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Old 17th May 2018, 12:28 AM   #327
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Originally Posted by applecorped View Post
Have we passed Peak Trump yet?
IMO no.

He will be President for another six and a half years and his legacy, in terms of the way in which the US electorate look at facts and lies and the trust (or otherwise) that they have in their representatives will pervade for decades.

If "Trumpism" becomes the new norm and the two major parties become mirrors of each other, disregarding basic facts, brazenly lying in the face of irrefutable proof and retreating to the support of their own echo-chambers then Peak Trump is years, decades even, away.

If the US electorate reject this kind of politics and instead returns to business as usual, where politicians have the common decency to at least look a little shifty when caught out in a lie, then Peak Trump will have occurred at some point during President Trump's second term.
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Old 14th July 2018, 06:11 PM   #328
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How about now?
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Old 15th July 2018, 02:27 AM   #329
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My previous answer still applies.
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Old 16th July 2018, 06:36 PM   #330
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
My previous answer still applies.
Impeachment aside, you still believe Trump will win re-election?

No way.
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Old 16th July 2018, 06:48 PM   #331
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Originally Posted by applecorped View Post
How about now?
Yes. Now.
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Old 16th July 2018, 07:54 PM   #332
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Originally Posted by applecorped View Post
How about now?
Trump jumped the shark with "Build the wall and make Mexico pay for it" (or maybe pussygate, or the porn star to porn star payoff. But I digress).

It's just taking a loooooong time for ratings to catch up. He's was at least as popular as Fonzie.
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Old 17th July 2018, 12:43 AM   #333
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Impeachment aside, you still believe Trump will win re-election?

No way.
I think that President Trump will still have a decent shot at re-election in 2020 unless one or more of the following happens:
  • He is unwilling or unable to stand for re-election
  • There is a recession between now and 2020 which results in wide scale job losses
  • The Democratic Party finds policies and a candidate to actively appeal to the electorate, not just "Not Trump"

Even the latest debacle in Helsinki will blow over IMO. None of the GOP politicians who have criticised him are seeking reelection which means that the serving GOP is still foursquare behind him.
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Old 17th July 2018, 12:59 AM   #334
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I think that President Trump will still have a decent shot at re-election in 2020 unless one or more of the following happens:
  • He is unwilling or unable to stand for re-election
  • There is a recession between now and 2020 which results in wide scale job losses
  • The Democratic Party finds policies and a candidate to actively appeal to the electorate, not just "Not Trump"

Even the latest debacle in Helsinki will blow over IMO. None of the GOP politicians who have criticised him are seeking reelection which means that the serving GOP is still foursquare behind him.
And the constants: (1) No change in major party donors, their motives, and the singular passion for money absent all other criteria. (2) Rapidly increasing sophistication of the means and methods for spreading propaganda. (3) The ongoing shift in demographics concentrating educated voters in few voting districts, denying an informed citizenry access to power and elevating would-be prophets and saviors. (4) The Protestant Taliban, preaching the Utopian Freedom Gospel (Whites only, shhh).
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Old 17th July 2018, 01:58 AM   #335
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I think that President Trump will still have a decent shot at re-election in 2020 unless one or more of the following happens:
  • He is unwilling or unable to stand for re-election
  • There is a recession between now and 2020 which results in wide scale job losses
  • The Democratic Party finds policies and a candidate to actively appeal to the electorate, not just "Not Trump"

Even the latest debacle in Helsinki will blow over IMO. None of the GOP politicians who have criticised him are seeking reelection which means that the serving GOP is still foursquare behind him.

He is a useful idiot. They just can't believe how much of an idiot.
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Old 17th July 2018, 03:41 AM   #336
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Even the latest debacle in Helsinki will blow over IMO. None of the GOP politicians who have criticised him are seeking reelection which means that the serving GOP is still foursquare behind him.

If 'not Trump' isn't good enough, then I think the US is, not to put to fine a point on it, **********.
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Old 17th July 2018, 09:13 AM   #337
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Originally Posted by 3point14 View Post
If 'not Trump' isn't good enough, then I think the US is, not to put to fine a point on it, **********.
Yep, you'd think that would be the one thing we could all agree on.
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Old 17th July 2018, 09:42 AM   #338
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I think that President Trump will still have a decent shot at re-election in 2020 unless one or more of the following happens:
  • He is unwilling or unable to stand for re-election
  • There is a recession between now and 2020 which results in wide scale job losses
  • The Democratic Party finds policies and a candidate to actively appeal to the electorate, not just "Not Trump"

Even the latest debacle in Helsinki will blow over IMO. None of the GOP politicians who have criticised him are seeking reelection which means that the serving GOP is still foursquare behind him.
Agree with the above, or there could be a major SNAFU shortly before election time that could hurt his chances.

As bad as the Stinky in Helsinki was, I think it will pass soon with the speed at which the news cycle moves these days.

Barring any of that, I think he stands a pretty decent chance in 2020.
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Old 17th July 2018, 09:48 AM   #339
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Originally Posted by sir drinks-a-lot View Post
Agree with the above, or there could be major SNAFU shortly before election time that could hurt his chances.

I genuinely cannot think of anything the man could do that would make any difference.

Even the most egregious acts will have the more simple members of the US voting public respond with 'Well, I'll show you!', and voting for him - These people are probably very susceptible to reverse psychology*. Might help his turn out, in fact.
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Old 22nd July 2018, 09:34 AM   #340
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
I think that President Trump will still have a decent shot at re-election in 2020 unless one or more of the following happens:
  • He is unwilling or unable to stand for re-election
  • There is a recession between now and 2020 which results in wide scale job losses
  • The Democratic Party finds policies and a candidate to actively appeal to the electorate, not just "Not Trump"

Even the latest debacle in Helsinki will blow over IMO. None of the GOP politicians who have criticised him are seeking reelection which means that the serving GOP is still foursquare behind him.
Isn't there also the possiblity of Mueller or others digging up something so incriminating that he loses popularity or is even impeached?
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Old 22nd July 2018, 10:24 AM   #341
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Originally Posted by Safe-Keeper View Post
Isn't there also the possiblity of Mueller or others digging up something so incriminating that he loses popularity or is even impeached?
There's a long list of possible reasons why Trump will not serve another term, and you'd want long odds to bet on any specific one of them, but when you add them up...
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Old 22nd July 2018, 10:28 AM   #342
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Again until the list of reasons Trump can't possibly serve another term is longer or indeed even functionally different from the list of reasons Trump couldn't possibly have been elected in the first place, I'm not impressed.

Now to be clear I do think Trump has much less chance of getting a second term (or indeed even getting to a second term) but the Democrat's "Oh he's a joke, we've got this in the bag, look at all these reasons I'm right" mentality is exactly what got us into this mess in the first place.
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Old 22nd July 2018, 10:38 AM   #343
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Again until the list of reasons Trump can't possibly serve another term is longer or indeed even functionally different from the list of reasons Trump couldn't possibly have been elected in the first place, I'm not impressed.

Now to be clear I do think Trump has much less chance of getting a second term (or indeed even getting to a second term) but the Democrat's "Oh he's a joke, we've got this in the bag, look at all these reasons I'm right" mentality is exactly what got us into this mess in the first place.
Fortunately, that's not what's happening. The weekend before the 4th of July, there were about 750 demonstrations across the country, mainly to protest Trump's family separation policy but there was also a very successful voter registration drive. Neither got a lot of media attention, but what it means is that there are intensive grass-roots organization and mobilization efforts underway. I hope Republicans keep ignoring it.
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Old 22nd July 2018, 10:47 AM   #344
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Originally Posted by WilliamSeger View Post
Fortunately, that's not what's happening. The weekend before the 4th of July, there were about 750 demonstrations across the country, mainly to protest Trump's family separation policy but there was also a very successful voter registration drive. Neither got a lot of media attention, but what it means is that there are intensive grass-roots organization and mobilization efforts underway. I hope Republicans keep ignoring it.
Yeah, people seem to have learned from both Trump's victory and Brexit. They know they have to actually vote now. That alone is probably going to make a difference.

Still crossing my fingers, though : .
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Old 22nd July 2018, 10:54 AM   #345
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Okay at not one point in modern American history has "Looki tall this passion and protesting" actually lead to higher vote turnout, but this time will be different. Sure let's count on that.

Voter turnout will be between 55 and 60 percent, probably closer to 55, in 2020. The midterm will be between 40 and 50, probably closer to 40.

As always "Didn't vote" will remain the uncontested champion of every election in the US.
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Old 22nd July 2018, 11:06 AM   #346
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
Impeachment aside, you still believe Trump will win re-election?

No way.
Yes, Trump can be re-elected. The Democrats have to walk a fine line. They need a real primary process, one without a predetermined outcome but not so rough the candidate is damaged goods going into the convention. They're going to really have to work on getting out the Obama voters who stayed home and the lesser of two evils voters who held their nose and voted for Trump.


If Democrats don't have proper respect for Trump and his Russian allies, yes they can lose 2020.
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Old 22nd July 2018, 11:12 AM   #347
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Okay at not one point in modern American history has "Looki tall this passion and protesting" actually lead to higher vote turnout, but this time will be different. Sure let's count on that.

Voter turnout will be between 55 and 60 percent, probably closer to 55, in 2020. The midterm will be between 40 and 50, probably closer to 40.

As always "Didn't vote" will remain the uncontested champion of every election in the US.
I really don't see why you think Democrats are just "counting" on it happening all by itself, or why you think people will be so apathetic about what's happening.
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