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Tags Brexit , Theresa May , uk elections , uk politics

View Poll Results: How long will UK Prime Minister Theresa May Last?
She'll last a month at most 8 17.78%
She won't last out the week 3 6.67%
She'll last for two weeks 2 4.44%
She'll last until the next Tory Conference in October 2017 20 44.44%
She'll last until the next General Election 8 17.78%
She'll ride out the storm and serve the full term 2 4.44%
Who cares <shrug>? 2 4.44%
Voters: 45. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 9th July 2018, 04:34 PM   #361
P.J. Denyer
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
David Cameron Tweet from 2015

"Britain faces a simple and inescapable choice - stability and strong Government with me, or chaos with Ed Miliband"

How did that work out Dave?
I seem to recall he also said something about seeing out his term regardless of the referendum vote. His promises weren't worth the breath it took to utter them.
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Old 10th July 2018, 12:31 AM   #362
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Remember also that Theresa May promised "Strong and Stable" government.
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Old 10th July 2018, 02:37 AM   #363
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Originally Posted by The Don View Post
Remember also that Theresa May promised "Strong and Stable" government.
I've been in a few stables and they could be pretty strong. Given the animal product though I think she meant barn.
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Old 11th July 2018, 02:48 PM   #364
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Hearing reports that Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the Tory backbench 1922 Committee, has now received the 48 letters needed to trigger a vote of ‘no confidence’ in Mrs May’s leadership .
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Old 11th July 2018, 03:17 PM   #365
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Hearing reports that Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the Tory backbench 1922 Committee, has now received the 48 letters needed to trigger a vote of ‘no confidence’ in Mrs May’s leadership .
I was expecting the publication of the white paper tomorrow to be the likely trigger for more letters.
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Old 11th July 2018, 03:18 PM   #366
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Telegraph headline

Is Theresa May guilty of treason?


Her day are numbered.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/...box=1531289682
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Old 12th July 2018, 12:23 AM   #367
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Telegraph headline

Is Theresa May guilty of treason?


Her day are numbered.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/...box=1531289682

Paywall. Can you cite?
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Old 12th July 2018, 12:28 AM   #368
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Paywall. Can you cite?
An opinion piece based on Daily Telegraph readers' letters.

If they weren't apoplectic, I'd be shocked.
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Old 12th July 2018, 02:16 AM   #369
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Telegraph headline

Is Theresa May guilty of treason?


Her day are numbered.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/...box=1531289682
I finally managed to subscribe for free and spend my one premium article per month on it, and I'm disappointed, both by the lack of length in the article and the lack of any humor or wit. And considering that the author normally writes on religious matters, I had expected at least one quote from Daniel: "mene mene tekel upharsin".

So has the 1922 committee already got 48 votes for holding a no-confidence vote?
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Old 12th July 2018, 02:49 AM   #370
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Telegraph headline

Is Theresa May guilty of treason?
Betteridge's law, no doubt, applies.

Dave
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Old 12th July 2018, 12:32 PM   #371
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Telegraph headline

Is Theresa May guilty of treason?


Her day are numbered.


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/...box=1531289682
Oh FFS.

[CANT_BELIEVE_IM_DEFENDING_THERESA_MAY]Yeah, the head of negotiating the exit deal and the face of the Leave campaign quit two thirds of the way through the process, the other 'big beasts' are moving themselves, their money, or their business abroad, but she's the traitor...[/CANT_BELIEVE_IM_DEFENDING_THERESA_MAY]
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Old 12th July 2018, 02:16 PM   #372
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I presume the opposition is going to give lots of publicity to photos of Trump and May together in this meeting?
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Old 12th July 2018, 02:20 PM   #373
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
I presume the opposition is going to give lots of publicity to photos of Trump and May together in this meeting?
They don’t really need to. It’s all over the news.
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Old 12th July 2018, 02:26 PM   #374
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
I presume the opposition is going to give lots of publicity to photos of Trump and May together in this meeting?
Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
They don’t really need to. It’s all over the news.
Which is fortunate for them. Someone elsewhere (I can't recall where) has pointed out that Corbyn has been holding the Government's feet to the fire over the decline in bus services.
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Old 13th July 2018, 01:06 AM   #375
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
Which is fortunate for them. Someone elsewhere (I can't recall where) has pointed out that Corbyn has been holding the Government's feet to the fire over the decline in bus services.
Well tbh he cannot say anything about Brexit because, if anything, Labour's policy is more confused and unworkable than the government's.
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Old 13th July 2018, 03:25 AM   #376
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Trump undermining May and bigging up Boris.

Even the Sun are reporting Trumps attacks on her brexit plan with glee.
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Old 13th July 2018, 03:55 AM   #377
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Trump undermining May and bigging up Boris.

Even the Sun are reporting Trumps attacks on her brexit plan with glee.
I was going to say "let's hope being the chosen of the most unpopular man in world politics works out well for him", but then I remembered we're talking about people who have their worldview shaped by The Sun.
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Old 13th July 2018, 12:21 PM   #378
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Trump undermining May and bigging up Boris.

Even the Sun are reporting Trumps attacks on her brexit plan with glee.
Which might have the opposite effect as far as Boris goes since a good many Conservatives think Boris as PM is political suicide.
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Old 14th July 2018, 03:26 AM   #379
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
Which might have the opposite effect as far as Boris goes since a good many Conservatives think Boris as PM is political suicide.
But the media love him which counts for more than competence, honesty or basic human decency.

And just look at the other options, but make sure you lock away sharp objects, poisons, firearms and lengths of rope first, and if you have access to antidepressants.....
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Old 14th July 2018, 12:44 PM   #380
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This won't help May:

Quote:
The latest Opinium poll for the Observer puts Labour on 40%, the same score as last month, but four points ahead of the Tories who have dropped by six points since early June to 36%. The fall in Tory support would appear to be the result of Conservative supporters who backed leaving the EU turning to Ukip, whose support has shot up by five points from 3% last month to 8%
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...neral-election
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Old 14th July 2018, 02:47 PM   #381
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Originally Posted by Aber View Post
Yeah, Cameron's Folly even failed to deal with UKIP.

Danny Dyer is now the foremost political commentator of our age.
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Old 14th July 2018, 04:00 PM   #382
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Originally Posted by Aber View Post
This part is also interesting:
Quote:
People are split, however, on whether the choice on the ballot paper should be between accepting the deal on offer and leaving without any deal at all or between accepting the deal on offer and staying in the EU, both supported by 25% of those asked.
I have two comments on that.

First, you really can't offer the choice "stay in the EU" on a ballot if you're not dead sure that the EU would accept that. It's not clear from article 50 if the process is reversible once set in motion. There are 27 countries that have to agree to forgetting the whole thing. So, first check with them if they'd agree to that, and if yes, under what conditions.

Second, there should indeed be a realistic gamut of options on the ballot and a sensible way to determine which one is preferred by an actual majority. And for three or more options, that means at the very least AV alias STV, or preferably, range voting.
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Old 15th July 2018, 07:58 AM   #383
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
Hearing reports that Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the Tory backbench 1922 Committee, has now received the 48 letters needed to trigger a vote of ‘no confidence’ in Mrs May’s leadership .
Excellent news. Let the backstabbing begin.
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Old 15th July 2018, 07:59 AM   #384
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Originally Posted by ddt View Post
This part is also interesting:

I have two comments on that.

First, you really can't offer the choice "stay in the EU" on a ballot if you're not dead sure that the EU would accept that. It's not clear from article 50 if the process is reversible once set in motion. There are 27 countries that have to agree to forgetting the whole thing. So, first check with them if they'd agree to that, and if yes, under what conditions.

Second, there should indeed be a realistic gamut of options on the ballot and a sensible way to determine which one is preferred by an actual majority. And for three or more options, that means at the very least AV alias STV, or preferably, range voting.
Why not have a ballot with more than two options? Are UKians considered too stupid for such subtlety?
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Old 15th July 2018, 09:55 AM   #385
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
Why not have a ballot with more than two options? Are UKians considered too stupid for such subtlety?
That was one of my points indeed.

The polls that the Guardian cited only gave possible referendums with two options. But in addition to that, a FPTP referendum with three or more options isn't really a good choice either.

But given the outcome of the referendum five or so years back on FPTP versus AV/STV, you may be spot on in your second question.
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Old 15th July 2018, 02:57 PM   #386
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I think Boris will come out on a Remain ticket, he can see the way the wind is blowing and is always after the main chance.
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Old 15th July 2018, 03:06 PM   #387
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
Excellent news. Let the backstabbing begin.
I think she would win the vote, if only because all the alternatives are even more repulsive to most Tory MPs. Unless they're in full-tilt suicide mode, and that would ... er ... I don't know what that would do. Neither do they. ****** madness prevails.

'king hell. I live in Greece and this place seems nuts at times, but it's a paragon of rationality compared to my home country these days.
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Old 17th July 2018, 11:06 AM   #388
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Originally Posted by GlennB View Post
I think she would win the vote, if only because all the alternatives are even more repulsive to most Tory MPs. Unless they're in full-tilt suicide mode, and that would ... er ... I don't know what that would do. Neither do they. ****** madness prevails.

Added to which I think none of the main contenders actually want to take responsibility for negotiating Brexit, better to let May bumble along until we get some sort of Brexit if only by default, then oust her and blame her for all the calamities that follow.
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Old 17th July 2018, 11:16 AM   #389
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Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop View Post
I think Boris will come out on a Remain ticket, he can see the way the wind is blowing and is always after the main chance.
Would anyone take him serious though? He was pretty much the face of the Leave campaign, complete with £350 million to the NHS and Turkey on the cusp of joining the EU (outrageously enough given that itøs something Bozo himself has advocated for in the past).

Hell, even his own constituents can't be too pleased with him over his Heathrow expansion stunt...

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Old 17th July 2018, 01:02 PM   #390
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Originally Posted by KDLarsen View Post
Would anyone take him serious though? He was pretty much the face of the Leave campaign, complete with £350 million to the NHS and Turkey on the cusp of joining the EU (outrageously enough given that itøs something Bozo himself has advocated for in the past).

Hell, even his own constituents can't be too pleased with him over his Heathrow expansion stunt...
He'd probably think he'd be able to convince everyone, and just put on his bumbling act and pretend it was all a misunderstanding.
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Old 17th July 2018, 01:05 PM   #391
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I considered starting a thread about this but I don't know if there's enough meat on the bones for it's own topic. (But I'll spin it off into one if this is too much of a hijack for this thread)

Since impeachment of our own dear leader here in the States is more and more a topic of discussion I wonder if other countries see replacing a leader differently as we do. I get the vague impression that Americans tend to see it as admitting failure or showing weakness.
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Old 17th July 2018, 01:39 PM   #392
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Originally Posted by jimbob View Post
He'd probably think he'd be able to convince everyone, and just put on his bumbling act and pretend it was all a misunderstanding.
True, and the worst part is he'd probably get away with it. Then again, Uxbridge and South Ruislip isn't exactly a safe Conservative seat with only a majority of around 5,000 at the 2017 election.
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Old 17th July 2018, 03:21 PM   #393
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Originally Posted by KDLarsen View Post
True, and the worst part is he'd probably get away with it. Then again, Uxbridge and South Ruislip isn't exactly a safe Conservative seat with only a majority of around 5,000 at the 2017 election.
I used to live in Uxbridge, if all the students at Brunel (the reason I was there as it happened) registered to vote it would be a serious concern for him. He should have stuck in Henley (as luck would have it, the constituency I'm in now), it hasn't returned anyone other than the Tory candidate since (iirc) 1921, you could stick a blue rosette on a cowpat, some might suggest they've done worse in the past.

In between I was in Grieve's constituency, and people wonder why I'm cynical! Mind you, at the moment he's sounding like the voice of reason.
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Old 25th July 2018, 03:15 AM   #394
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Originally Posted by catsmate View Post
Why not have a ballot with more than two options? Are UKians considered too stupid for such subtlety?
On another forum, I once suggested a an STV style ballot. Put the options in your order of preference: Remain, Hard Exit, Norway style deal etc. The local Brexiteer told me that would be too complicated. I pointed out that anybody too stupid to list the options in the order they want is probably not competent to make such an important decision about a really complex topic.

My brother said that there should be 10 multiple choice questions on factual matters regarding our relationship with the EU and the number you get right is the number of votes you get to cast.
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Old 27th July 2018, 12:30 PM   #395
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Originally Posted by jeremyp View Post
On another forum, I once suggested a an STV style ballot. Put the options in your order of preference: Remain, Hard Exit, Norway style deal etc. The local Brexiteer told me that would be too complicated. I pointed out that anybody too stupid to list the options in the order they want is probably not competent to make such an important decision about a really complex topic.

My brother said that there should be 10 multiple choice questions on factual matters regarding our relationship with the EU and the number you get right is the number of votes you get to cast.
I think 'not competent to make such an important decision about a really complex topic" is why this never should have been on the ballot in the first place. I do not like Plebsicite Democracy.
I thought sending people to Parliament'Congress so they could study the issues and come up with a solution is why we have Representive Democracy. Granted, elected officials are often idiots,but still, I think it works better then "Government by Referendum".
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Old 27th July 2018, 03:59 PM   #396
a_unique_person
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Why don't they all just give Boris the job just to watch him suffer in the fires of Brexit?
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Old 27th July 2018, 04:45 PM   #397
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
Why don't they all just give Boris the job just to watch him suffer in the fires of Brexit?
The whole country would have to suffer with him.
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Old 28th July 2018, 12:09 PM   #398
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Originally Posted by dudalb View Post
I think 'not competent to make such an important decision about a really complex topic" is why this never should have been on the ballot in the first place. I do not like Plebsicite Democracy.
I thought sending people to Parliament'Congress so they could study the issues and come up with a solution is why we have Representive Democracy. Granted, elected officials are often idiots,but still, I think it works better then "Government by Referendum".
I absolutely 100% agree with you on this. The referendum was intended only as a device to end the threat to the Tory party from UKIP and lance the boil of the split caused by the Euro sceptic wing.

If it weren't for the fact that we are crashing and burning, it would be hilarious. The split is even more prominent now and is likely to destroy the party and UKIP is resurgent. I weep for my country.
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Old 29th July 2018, 09:05 AM   #399
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Originally Posted by jeremyp View Post
I absolutely 100% agree with you on this. The referendum was intended only as a device to end the threat to the Tory party from UKIP and lance the boil of the split caused by the Euro sceptic wing.

If it weren't for the fact that we are crashing and burning, it would be hilarious. The split is even more prominent now and is likely to destroy the party and UKIP is resurgent. I weep for my country.

Before we were stuck in a clown car. Now we're stuck in a clown car being knowingly driven full speed toward a cliff.

Oddly, I missed the line "If we're going down we're taking the country with us" in either Dave 'Stay on whatever the result' Cameron or Theresa 'No Election' May's manifestos.
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Old 10th September 2018, 12:03 PM   #400
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Liverpoolmiss at badscience on Johnson's latest manouverings

Originally Posted by liverpoolmiss
It is 459 days since Theresa May destroyed herself in the 2017 General Election and became the walking dead.

There has been no way to end her torment in those 459 days. She has been forced to continue, powerless and in power, her soul empty and her eyes vacant. The constraints of the Brexit disaster bind her situation and nothing can unlock the Conservative Party from its invisible chains of despair.

Why do you think day 459 different from day 458? You think Johnson shooting himself in the foot with ill-judged Telegraph articles suddenly frees May to embrace death's welcome release? That the latest round of in-party squabbling suddenly allows the Conservatives to be united around a new unicorn-riding leader?

Tell me, what exactly has changed? What is this magic new dawn you lot seem to be seeing? What is happening in this dungeon full of prisoners chained to the wall for 459 days to suddenly get you so excited?
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US 16.4% of GDP of which 48.2% is public expenditure - 7.9% of GDP is public spending
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