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Tags Australia elections , Australia politics , Julie Bishop , Malcolm Turnbull , Peter Dutton , Scott Morrison

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Old 11th October 2018, 12:48 AM   #241
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Preferred PM and preferred party have hardly ever been in synch.
Which is a credit to the voters. However, Shorten is definitely costing the party votes.
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Old 11th October 2018, 01:21 PM   #242
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Which is a credit to the voters. However, Shorten is definitely costing the party votes.

Hey I agree with you here psion! ...... Thats a worry.
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Old 12th October 2018, 01:50 PM   #243
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Be interesting to see what happens if the Libs lose Wentworth, or even suffer a massive swing against them. Will Morrison be made the fall guy and given the boot? If so will he taker his bat, ball, and Bible and go home, or will he do an Abbott, and hang around like a bad smell?
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Old 12th October 2018, 07:29 PM   #244
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Originally Posted by Thor 2 View Post
Be interesting to see what happens if the Libs lose Wentworth, or even suffer a massive swing against them. Will Morrison be made the fall guy and given the boot? If so will he taker his bat, ball, and Bible and go home, or will he do an Abbott, and hang around like a bad smell?
The Liberals cannot change leaders before the next election. They will be a laughing stock. Plus hardly enough time for the new PM to make a mark. Remember elections have to be held before May 2019. At least for the upper house.
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Old 12th October 2018, 10:38 PM   #245
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My favourite overheard comment:

"Who's the Liberal Prime Minister this week?"
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Old 12th October 2018, 10:49 PM   #246
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Who is a feasible replacement anyway? Not Dutton so soon, nor Bishop, who else is there?
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Old 12th October 2018, 11:43 PM   #247
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Originally Posted by Thor 2 View Post
Be interesting to see what happens if the Libs lose Wentworth, or even suffer a massive swing against them. Will Morrison be made the fall guy and given the boot? If so will he taker his bat, ball, and Bible and go home, or will he do an Abbott, and hang around like a bad smell?
Current polling (https://www.news.com.au/national/bre...1b9e893db12562):
Dave Sharma (Lib) - 38.8%
Dr Keryn Phelps (Ind) - 23.5%
Tim Murry (Labor) - 17.2%

Dr Phelps has 54.5% of the 2PP vote.

ScoMo appears to be handling the job well enough at this stage to fend off any more challenges to the Lib leadership before the next election.
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Old 13th October 2018, 08:35 AM   #248
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Originally Posted by novaphile View Post
My favourite overheard comment:

"Who's the Liberal Prime Minister this week?"

In one of the articles I read recently while following this thread they said that care-givers had stopped asking if the patient knew who the PM was to assess their mental state.
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Old 13th October 2018, 02:18 PM   #249
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
The Liberals cannot change leaders before the next election. They will be a laughing stock. Plus hardly enough time for the new PM to make a mark. Remember elections have to be held before May 2019. At least for the upper house.

They will be more of a laughing stock.
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Old 13th October 2018, 04:42 PM   #250
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Originally Posted by quadraginta View Post
In one of the articles I read recently while following this thread they said that care-givers had stopped asking if the patient knew who the PM was to assess their mental state.
Oh my goodness.

Yes, I can see how that would be a problem. A lot of people don't pay that much attention to politics, and with the recent turmoil, there probably just isn't enough time for the PM's name to make it into wide recognition.

I'm going to have to repeat that one.

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Old 14th October 2018, 07:57 PM   #251
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Which is a credit to the voters. However, Shorten is definitely costing the party votes.
Hmmm... I'd put it as: he's not get them any extra votes. Which is a pity because he's a capable chap with a pleasant enough demeanor, just a bit...colourless.

Perhaps that's his problem... Do you think a radical hairdo would see a change of fortune?
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Old 14th October 2018, 09:14 PM   #252
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
Hmmm... I'd put it as: he's not get them any extra votes.
Don't expect me to dig them up but I have seen polls in the past that show that Labor would get even more votes if (say) Albanese were the ALP leader instead of Shorten.

Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
Which is a pity because he's a capable chap with a pleasant enough demeanor, just a bit...colourless.
Yes, show ponies tend to get more votes than capable leaders (which is a discredit to the voters). However, that is not the case here. Shorten's role in the Rudd/Gillard back stabbing competition earned him the reputation as an opportunist who will say or do anything to further his own personal ambition. This is true of every politician in the world of course but most manage to avoid being defined by their opportunism.
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Old 14th October 2018, 09:50 PM   #253
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Don't expect me to dig them up but I have seen polls in the past that show that Labor would get even more votes if (say) Albanese were the ALP leader instead of Shorten.
I’m sure you know that it’s not the votes you bring in, it’s where they are. If Albo brings in massively more votes from the Labor heartland, it will make bugger all difference. I think Shorten appeals more to the urbane swinging/greenish voters who will go a long way to deciding the election. Bringing in Albo would be a disaster which would take Labor a decade to recover from.
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Old 14th October 2018, 11:21 PM   #254
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Originally Posted by psion10
Don't expect me to dig them up but I have seen polls in the past that show that Labor would get even more votes if (say) Albanese were the ALP leader instead of Shorten.
That could well be true. The problem is, which votes. Albo would probably handily win a leadership battle over Shorten with one hand and one leg tied behind his back. And personally I think Albo would be a better leader. But that won't make Labor any more (or less) popular in the LNP or Hanson heartlands.

Originally Posted by lionking View Post
I’m sure you know that it’s not the votes you bring in, it’s where they are. If Albo brings in massively more votes from the Labor heartland, it will make bugger all difference. I think Shorten appeals more to the urbane swinging/greenish voters who will go a long way to deciding the election. Bringing in Albo would be a disaster which would take Labor a decade to recover from.
Yes, this is what I feel too. Although maybe not that Albo would be a disaster but more a disappointment.
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Old 15th October 2018, 12:10 AM   #255
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
If Shorten has the numbers a snap election is not required to my knowledge. He can be given commission by the GG and serve out the term as PM until May. I’m not sure what would be better for him.

Anyway, I think the Libs will retain Wentworth on preferences.
Shorten can't get the numbers, the existing crossbenchers with the exception of Bandt have already guaranteed supply and confidence.
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Old 15th October 2018, 12:12 AM   #256
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Originally Posted by Damien Evans View Post
Shorten can't get the numbers, the existing crossbenchers with the exception of Bandt have already guaranteed supply and confidence.
The crossbenchers are as reliable as the weather in spring. Wentworth falls, and watch the scramble.
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Old 15th October 2018, 12:30 AM   #257
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
If Shorten has the numbers a snap election is not required to my knowledge. He can be given commission by the GG and serve out the term as PM until May. I’m not sure what would be better for him.
The GG isn't about to replace the PM anytime soon unless the house passes a "no confidence" motion and Keryn Phelps has already indicated that she wouldn't support one.

It would be in Shorten's best interests if ScoMo had to run government without a majority in the house. Every defeat would be a huge embarrassment.
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Old 15th October 2018, 12:51 AM   #258
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
The GG isn't about to replace the PM anytime soon unless the house passes a "no confidence" motion and Keryn Phelps has already indicated that she wouldn't support one.

It would be in Shorten's best interests if ScoMo had to run government without a majority in the house. Every defeat would be a huge embarrassment.
To your first point, Whitlam was dismissed without a vote of no confidence and the constitution hasn’t been changed to prevent this from happening again, unlikely as it is.

To the second, I agree this is Shorten’s best scenario.
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Old 15th October 2018, 02:07 AM   #259
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
To your first point, Whitlam was dismissed without a vote of no confidence and the constitution hasn’t been changed to prevent this from happening again, unlikely as it is.
True but there is no parliamentary deadlock over the budget and PMs have gotten better at weeding out drunks when it comes to appointing GGs.
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Old 15th October 2018, 02:52 AM   #260
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
To your first point, Whitlam was dismissed without a vote of no confidence and the constitution hasn’t been changed to prevent this from happening again, unlikely as it is.

To the second, I agree this is Shorten’s best scenario.
Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
True but there is no parliamentary deadlock over the budget and PMs have gotten better at weeding out drunks when it comes to appointing GGs.
I would also like to add that every GG should be worried that what happened to Kerr would happen to them if they sacked the PM like in 1975.
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Old 15th October 2018, 03:30 AM   #261
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
I would also like to add that every GG should be worried that what happened to Kerr would happen to them if they sacked the PM like in 1975.
Kerr was seriously unpopular afterwards and lived out his later life in London. However, there were no legal repercussions over the dismissal
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Old 15th October 2018, 02:19 PM   #262
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So now Morrison is indicating interest in moving the embassy in Israel to Jerusalem.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-1...salem/10379602


Quote:
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has indicated he is open to moving Australia's embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

My initial reaction was a religious motivation but no!

Quote:
Nearly 13 per cent of voters in Wentworth are Jewish, and the Government needs to win the seat to retain its one-seat majority in the Lower House.

Buying the Jewish vote? Pardon my cynicism.
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Old 15th October 2018, 03:58 PM   #263
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Originally Posted by Thor 2 View Post
So now Morrison is indicating interest in moving the embassy in Israel to Jerusalem.

Buying the Jewish vote? Pardon my cynicism.
Wholesale or retail?
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Old 16th October 2018, 01:16 PM   #264
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So now we see Morrisons silly ideas about our embassy being relocated to Jerusalem have stirred up trouble with Muslim Indonesia.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-...bassy/10383190


Quote:
Indonesia is considering putting its imminent trade deal with Australia on hold over the Prime Minister Scott Morrison's statement he would consider moving the Australian embassy in Israel to Jerusalem.

Quote:
Indonesia's support of a Palestinian state is one of its most important foreign priorities, meaning the Prime Minister's suggestion has not gone well in Jakarta.

What a great illustration of how religious inclination should not influence political decisions. I suspect Morrison may be somewhat swayed by his religious leanings as well as trying to buy the Jewish vote in Wentworth.*

* Wholesale I think Norman.
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Old 17th October 2018, 07:00 PM   #265
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
Krudd or Rabbit? It was a real hobson's choice at the time.
Do we really need to lower ourselves to the level of childish name-calling?

Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Who is a feasible replacement anyway? Not Dutton so soon, nor Bishop, who else is there?
I'd actually be... well, not happy per se, but I would accept Bishop. I think she'd be a positive direction for the Liberal Party, which has been stepping backwards for years.
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Old 18th October 2018, 12:55 AM   #266
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Do we really need to lower ourselves to the level of childish name-calling?
Of course! How else to convey what a horrible choice voters had?

The only worse choice has been between Hillary Clinton and "The Hair". Do you also call out Americans who use that nick name instead of Donald Trump?
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Old 18th October 2018, 02:34 PM   #267
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Do we really need to lower ourselves to the level of childish name-calling?
One has to stick with what one does best I suppose.

Quote:
I'd actually be... well, not happy per se, but I would accept Bishop. I think she'd be a positive direction for the Liberal Party, which has been stepping backwards for years.
Bishop would be a move in the right direction perhaps, although she has been somewhat wanting in her response to helping Australians in strife overseas, in her role as foreign minister.
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Old 18th October 2018, 02:49 PM   #268
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post

I'd actually be... well, not happy per se, but I would accept Bishop. I think she'd be a positive direction for the Liberal Party, which has been stepping backwards for years.
If she can only drag herself away from Portsea Polo and taking her boyfriend (but not partner ) on taxpayer funded trips with her.

No, Bishop is a media-managed, born to rule lightweight. She is also far to bitter to get partyroom numbers.
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Old 18th October 2018, 03:51 PM   #269
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
No, Bishop is a media-managed, born to rule lightweight. She is also far to bitter to get party room numbers.
Which makes her the perfect Lib candidate!

But seriously, she is, out of those who might put their hands up should the vacancy come up again soon (and it probably will after the next Federal election), the best candidate to be Lib leader. Which doesn't say much for the rest of the bumbling fools, cross-eyed ravers and malcontents, does it.
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Old 18th October 2018, 03:54 PM   #270
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Originally Posted by Thor 2 View Post
Bishop would be a move in the right direction perhaps, although she has been somewhat wanting in her response to helping Australians in strife overseas, in her role as foreign minister.
Come on! Who amongst us hasn't left fellow Australians struggling for months in Kerobokan facing a life sentence for importing a boogie-board bag full of weed! I know I have!
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Old 18th October 2018, 07:05 PM   #271
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
No, Bishop is a media-managed, born to rule lightweight. She is also far to bitter to get partyroom numbers.
I was working for ACFID during some of the time that she was foreign minister, and as such I had pretty good sources of information. At times I was given to wonder why she was still a member of the Liberal Party (the answer to which is actually pretty obvious when you think about it a little bit, which I did). I'm not saying she's good, but she would certainly be a better leader than pretty much all of the rest of the rich white men right now. Which of course means that she can't possibly get the support she would need.
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Old 18th October 2018, 07:26 PM   #272
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Originally Posted by Thor 2 View Post
One has to stick with what one does best I suppose.
LOL All of the posters who used to post about "Mr Rabbit" suddenly think that they can take the moral high ground.

Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
Originally Posted by lionking View Post
No, Bishop is a media-managed, born to rule lightweight.
. . . . .
I'm not saying she's good, but she would certainly be a better leader than pretty much all of the rest of the rich white men right now.
LK is right. Being the popular choice of voters is irrelevant in the party room. A leader has to be able to - well - lead. Being unable to avoid elimination at the first vote means that Bishop has failed the first test at the starting gate.
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Old 18th October 2018, 07:32 PM   #273
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Originally Posted by psionl0 View Post
LK is right. Being the popular choice of voters is irrelevant in the party room. A leader has to be able to - well - lead. Being unable to avoid elimination at the first vote means that Bishop has failed the first test at the starting gate.
Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
...Which of course means that she can't possibly get the support she would need.
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Old 18th October 2018, 09:48 PM   #274
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Originally Posted by Norman Alexander View Post
Which makes her the perfect Lib candidate!

But seriously, she is, out of those who might put their hands up should the vacancy come up again soon (and it probably will after the next Federal election)
, the best candidate to be Lib leader. Which doesn't say much for the rest of the bumbling fools, cross-eyed ravers and malcontents, does it.
That's if she even runs for re-election, which she probably won't.
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Old 18th October 2018, 10:10 PM   #275
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Originally Posted by Damien Evans View Post
That's if she even runs for re-election, which she probably won't.
Point.
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Old 19th October 2018, 11:44 PM   #276
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After the past few days, I’m now calling a Phelps wIn. Not that this causes me any joy, as I found her a poor leader of the AMA, with her support of “complementary medicine” bordering on woo.

Also her self-imposed title of “progressive” and pledge to support the coalition in the house?

Murray could still sneak up the middle, but I doubt Sharma can now win.

Anything other than a Liberal wIn will be a disaster for Morrison of course, with Joyce waiting to become Deputy PM a few bare months after disgracing himself. What a shambles.
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Old 20th October 2018, 12:54 AM   #277
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The first four Booths are in, and the swing against the Liberals is over 20%, all to Phelps. Turnbull's revenge?


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Old 20th October 2018, 01:27 AM   #278
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Yes, this is catastrophic for Morrison. There is no spin that will counter this.
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Old 20th October 2018, 01:30 AM   #279
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The other point is that Phelps is getting preferences from everyone and Sharma from no one.
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Old 20th October 2018, 01:37 AM   #280
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https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fede...19-p50apy.html
Quote:
Wentworth byelection: 'Nightmare' for Liberals as analysts declare victory for Kerryn Phelps
I wonder if Labour could get some legislation though parliament? That would be good. Get Labour and the independents to work together.
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