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8 2 3.45%
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5 5 8.62%
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Old 2nd September 2019, 09:52 AM   #41
angrysoba
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Originally Posted by Foolmewunz View Post
I tried to answer with my actual "opinions" of what the answer would be, but was prepared to find that I'd missed a lot. I got 'em all right!

It's all in how you read the news or tell the news. A couple of them, e.g. 80% of the world having electricity sound high but if you're talking world population that's still a whopping 800 million people without electricity and that's the number one hears in the news.

.
Indeed. Maybe also you have a better idea by living in Thailand. I don’t know exactly how long you have been there but you may well have seen the standard of living improve in your time. Next door, in Cambodia, it was level 1 or extreme poverty in 2000. Now, although not rich, it is maybe up to the level the Philippines was at 2000. Whereas Philippines is now on the border between Level 2 and 3.
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Old 2nd September 2019, 12:12 PM   #42
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
That’s not how the answer should be interpreted. Until a few decades ago, the majority of people in India and China were in extreme poverty. Rosling explains four levels of income and what those levels of income mean for people throughout the world. According to these levels, the world used to be divided into two very starkly different levels of wealth, popularly known as the developed and developing world. Yet these days, there is a very obvious spectrum of wealth with most countries falling in between. His Level 1 countries that represent extreme poverty are counties such as Afghanistan, Yemen, Nepal and a number of African countries. It used to also include China, India, !Bangladesh, South Korea etc...

If you go back far enough on the interactive chart you can see Sweden was once in level 1 - large, illiterate families with no running water and mud floors that froze in winter. That was the Sweden of his great grandmother’s time. He has a chapter called “I was born in Egypt” meaning that when he was born, people in Sweden were roughly as poor as people in Egypt today. He was fished out of an open sewer by his grandmother. His mother had tuberculosis. No one in his family had been to university etc... this was typical for people in Sweden then.
I still don't consider India and China "middle income countries".
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Old 2nd September 2019, 12:30 PM   #43
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Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
I still don't consider India and China "middle income countries".
Apparently the World Bank does, and that is how the figures are arrived at.

The various countries of the world are divided into
Level 1 - low-income
Level 2 - lower middle-income
Level 3 - upper middle-income
Level 4 - high-income

The previous "middle income" had to be further subdivided because so many countries were in this bracket and there was such a large difference in standard of living.

From what I understand, Rosling uses GDP per capita and then adjusted for PPP and inflation. It's not perfect, but as your own link points out, people in Shanghai and Beijing may get much higher salaries than in rural China, but the cost of living is so much higher there. The figures are, I believe, from the World Bank.

According to Rosling, then, looking at the graph:

India is currently at 6800 dollars (lower-middle income/Level 2)
China is at 16,000 dollars (upper-middle income/Level 3)

Whereas in 1991:

India was at 1740
China was at 1650

https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$state$time$value=1991;&marker$select@$country=in d&trailStartTime=1991;;;;&chart-type=bubbles

Both of them experienced mind-boggling poverty levels. The difference in standard of living is a night-and-day one. Bernie Sanders got into trouble (or rather experienced a lot of phoney outrage) when he said that China has got more people out of extreme poverty than any other, but he is pretty much correct. Some caveats are needed, however. One of those is that there have been global efforts to take people out of poverty, and that has meant trans-national organizations such as UN agencies and rich nations' overseas aid deserve some of the credit for this. Also, while many on the right in America decided to play old stock footage of Mao's Cultural Revolution, it definitely wasn't Maoism that was responsible for the ending of extreme poverty. More likely the more recent reforms of the 1990s onwards.

So a_unique_person was simply inventing the explanation that India and China are middle income by default.
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 2nd September 2019, 02:18 PM   #44
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Apparently the World Bank does, and that is how the figures are arrived at.
Where you draw the line on low vs high is fundamentally a largely arbitrary call.

When you're answering a question like this on this quiz, what you're actually guessing is how low-income a country has to be to qualify as low-income to the maker of the quiz.

ETA:
From the world bank:
https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/k...lending-groups
Quote:
For the current 2020 fiscal year, low-income economies are defined as those with a GNI per capita, calculated using the World Bank Atlas method, of $1,025 or less in 2018
So, according to them, a country where people average $3 a day is "middle income".

I...don't agree, but such a judgment is a matter of opinion, not objective fact.
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Last edited by kellyb; 2nd September 2019 at 02:29 PM.
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Old 2nd September 2019, 02:49 PM   #45
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
It’s still zero.
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Old 2nd September 2019, 02:52 PM   #46
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Quote:
So, according to them, a country where people average $3 a day is "middle income".
Doesn't that really depend on what $3 will buy you, and whether or not they have other subsistence options besides monetary income?
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Old 2nd September 2019, 03:02 PM   #47
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Originally Posted by Skeptical Greg View Post
Doesn't that really depend on what $3 will buy you, and whether or not they have other subsistence options besides monetary income?
They don't seem to be factoring any of that in.
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Old 2nd September 2019, 03:45 PM   #48
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Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
I still don't consider India and China "middle income countries".
What's the middle income. The one that's in the middle. Where China and India would be.
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Old 2nd September 2019, 03:45 PM   #49
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Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
They don't seem to be factoring any of that in.

Which means the figure of $3 is not very meaningful..
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Old 2nd September 2019, 04:16 PM   #50
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Originally Posted by Skeptical Greg View Post
Which means the figure of $3 is not very meaningful..
Like I said earlier:


Originally Posted by me
Where you draw the line on low vs high is fundamentally a largely arbitrary call.
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Old 2nd September 2019, 04:59 PM   #51
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I got 10 out of 13 right, and was mildly pessimistic on 2. The 3rd was the population balance, I underestimated Asia.
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Old 2nd September 2019, 05:53 PM   #52
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Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
Where you draw the line on low vs high is fundamentally a largely arbitrary call.
How could it not be?

When you're answering a question like this on this quiz, what you're actually guessing is how low-income a country has to be to qualify as low-income to the maker of the quiz.[/quote]

Sure, but these are not purely idiosyncratic definitions. They tend to be the ones in use in the United Nations and the World Bank. They would probably be familiar to NGOs and the low-income bracket is the one used for extreme poverty for the Millennial Goals and the Sustainable Development Goals.

Wiki:

Quote:
In 2018, extreme poverty widely refers to an income below the international poverty line of $1.90 per day (in 2011 prices, equivalent to $2.12 in 2018), set by the World Bank. In October 2015, the World Bank updated the international poverty line, a global absolute minimum, to $1.90 a day.[3] This is the equivalent of $1.00 a day in 1996 US prices, hence the widely used expression "living on less than a dollar a day".[4] The vast majority of those in extreme poverty reside in South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, the West Indies, East Asia, and the Pacific. As of 2018, it is estimated that the country with the most people living in extreme poverty is Nigeria, at 86 million.[1][5][6]

In the past, the vast majority of the world population lived in conditions of extreme poverty.[7][8] The percentage of the global population living in absolute poverty fell from over 80% in 1800 to 10% by 2015.[9] According to United Nations estimates, in 2015 roughly 734 million people or 10% remained under those conditions.[10] The number had previously been measured as 1.9 billion in 1990, and 1.2 billion in 2008. Despite the significant number of individuals still below the international poverty line, these figures represent significant progress for the international community, as they reflect a decrease of more than one billion people over 15 years.[10]

In public opinion surveys around the world, people surveyed tend to incorrectly think that extreme poverty has not decreased.[11][12]
ETA:
From the world bank:
https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/k...lending-groups


Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
So, according to them, a country where people average $3 a day is "middle income".

I...don't agree, but such a judgment is a matter of opinion, not objective fact.
Of course words like "low", "middle" and "high" are matters of judgment. How would you otherwise define the terms as objective fact?

Originally Posted by Skeptical Greg View Post
Doesn't that really depend on what $3 will buy you, and whether or not they have other subsistence options besides monetary income?
Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
They don't seem to be factoring any of that in.
Originally Posted by Skeptical Greg View Post
Which means the figure of $3 is not very meaningful..
Why is it not meaningful? I agree that if you lived in the United States and had only $3 a day then you would be as good as in absolute poverty. You would likely be homeless and starving unless, thanks to some kind of social welfare, some accommodation and food stamps could be provided for you. But even in the United States, you would have some access to healthcare and your children would have access to education etc...

What you have to realize is that $3 a day and more makes a massive difference in many parts of the world that otherwise have no such infrastructure.

Think in terms of how people used to suffer, regular annual famines in places such as Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Sudan etc... It wasn't that long ago that massive famines were killing millions in India and China too. Has famine been entirely eradicated? No, but it is lower than it was, and as a percentage lower still.

Think also in terms of safe, accessible drinking water, vaccines, number of babies born to individual women, child mortality rates, education and literacy, transportation etc...

If you look at those graphs again, and you change the X-axis from income to babies born, child mortality and life expectancy you can see dramatic changes over the course of a few decades.

Anyway, Hans Rosling also made a video about the changes in population around the world. Maybe this can demonstrate what we are talking about here:

YouTube Video This video is not hosted by the ISF. The ISF can not be held responsible for the suitability or legality of this material. By clicking the link below you agree to view content from an external website.
I AGREE
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 2nd September 2019, 06:00 PM   #53
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
What's the middle income. The one that's in the middle. Where China and India would be.
What do you mean?
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 2nd September 2019, 06:17 PM   #54
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
There are just more important questions re: the state of the world than the extinction of 3 species, or how much education young women get compared to young men. How about Doomsday clock or world economy?
I think most of the questions were related to the world economy.

If we talk about the "bad economy" today, it might mean unemployment or declining stock prices. In decades past, a bad economy meant people were starving to death.
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Old 2nd September 2019, 06:18 PM   #55
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Originally Posted by Mike! View Post
I'm lucky to know how to breath and walk at the same time, apparently, having only got 2 correct. I'm also reassured to know the world isn't nearly as screwed as I'd thought it was.
Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
Got 9.

Like Mike!, my wrong answers came from overestimating what most would think of as the severity of certain problems.
Originally Posted by casebro View Post
Hmmm, interpreting my poor results as well as the nature of the questions, it shows the world to be a better place than I have been indoctrinated to believe.

Or maybe it is a push-poll, with questions chosen for their ability to guide the subject towards "enlightenment"?

To bad we don't have the demographics of our members, THAT might really teach us something. 15 poll responders, only 5 have posted results here.
I got 12/13 and the meta rule for this particular test is that the most pessimistic answer is always the wrong answer. It's either the middle option, or more likely, the most optimistic choice.

The one I got wrong was saying that most of the increase in population predicted for 2100 would be people over age 75. (Anyone alive today or born within 5 years from today will be an old person if they are still around by 2100.) The correct answer was "adults" age 16-74 I think.

I know I will definitely be dead by then because nobody has ever lived to 129, which is the age I would have to attain to live to 2100. I do hope to live to 2050 though. 2065 would be nice.
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Old 2nd September 2019, 06:54 PM   #56
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Quote:
What you have to realize is that $3 a day and more makes a massive difference in many parts of the world that otherwise have no such infrastructure.
That's pretty much what i was alluding to.
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Old 2nd September 2019, 06:56 PM   #57
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Originally Posted by Skeptical Greg View Post
That's pretty much what i was alluding to.
How? You said the figure wasn’t very meaningful?
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 2nd September 2019, 07:33 PM   #58
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
There are just more important questions re: the state of the world than the extinction of 3 species, or how much education young women get compared to young men. How about Doomsday clock or world economy?
The world economy was included in there, and the education of women is one of the most important world issues given it's effect on economics, health, politics, and culture.

The state of those specific 3 species, I agree, is a small issue compared to others, but the state of the environment in general (which that question was a proxy for) certainly is important, and the fact that things are getting better in at least some ways seems meaningful to me.
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Old 2nd September 2019, 07:45 PM   #59
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The ability to grow our economies is how we get economic progress. Australia is doing that the laziest way possible by having a huge immigration rate. That is creating massive destruction of habitat and extinctions of natives species. (Along with the many invasive species that white settlement introduced to the country).
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Old 2nd September 2019, 07:54 PM   #60
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
The ability to grow our economies is how we get economic progress.
That sounds tautological to me: "the way to get economic growth is through economic growth". Did you have some deeper meaning in mind?

Quote:
Australia is doing that the laziest way possible by having a huge immigration rate. That is creating massive destruction of habitat and extinctions of natives species. (Along with the many invasive species that white settlement introduced to the country).
Do you have any information about how immigration is contributing to habitat destruction and extinction of native species? I'm assuming you're not talking about cat immigration here. It's not obvious to me that it either is or isn't an important factor so I'd be interested in some info, thanks.
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Old 2nd September 2019, 08:02 PM   #61
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Originally Posted by Roboramma View Post
That sounds tautological to me: "the way to get economic growth is through economic growth". Did you have some deeper meaning in mind?



Do you have any information about how immigration is contributing to habitat destruction and extinction of native species? I'm assuming you're not talking about cat immigration here. It's not obvious to me that it either is or isn't an important factor so I'd be interested in some info, thanks.
Actually, I think cat immigration could indeed be quite destructive to Australian wildlife. Similarly, camel immigration. Australia has, I believe, one of the largest, if not the largest populations of camels, and apparently very destructive. Pigs too.

Still, I am not sure what a unique person’s aim is in this thread. He won’t answer specific questions I ask regarding his opinion of China and India’s income. Maybe I am on ignore.
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 2nd September 2019, 10:10 PM   #62
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FWIW, the "middle income" countries can be further divided into the lower middle income and upper middle income countries. India falls into the former category, while China is in the latter category today, after several decades of rapid economic growth.

http://worldpopulationreview.com/cou...ome-countries/

Quote:
MICs are further broken down into two additional groups: lower middle-income countries and upper middle-income countries. Lower middle-income nations have a GNI per capita of $1,006 to $3,995. Upper middle-income countries have a SNI per capita of $3,956 to $12,235.
Income and Living Standards across China
If you don't think China is truly a "middle income" country, then maybe you haven't been following the news recently and your image of China is from a earlier time.
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Old 2nd September 2019, 10:26 PM   #63
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Originally Posted by Puppycow View Post
If you don't think China is truly a "middle income" country, then maybe you haven't been following the news recently and your image of China is from a earlier time.
Indeed. I have to wonder what people's images of China are.

If you have visited China any time this millennium, or noticed the millions and millions of wealthy tourists travelling around other parts of Asia and in Europe, you will know that at that the very least there is a wealthy urban class in China. But it goes beyond a few cities. The whole country is becoming rich, just as not that long ago countries such as South Korea and Taiwan emerged from poverty and are now high-income economies.
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 2nd September 2019, 10:53 PM   #64
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Actually, I think cat immigration could indeed be quite destructive to Australian wildlife. Similarly, camel immigration. Australia has, I believe, one of the largest, if not the largest populations of camels, and apparently very destructive. Pigs too.
Yeah, that's what I meant, I'm sure that cat immigration is an important environmental issue in Australia, but I'm much less sure that human immigration is.
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Old 3rd September 2019, 02:40 AM   #65
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Originally Posted by casebro View Post
There are just more important questions re: the state of the world than the extinction of 3 species
That question is a little dishonest IMO. There are many species that have become more critically endangered in that time frame and at least one species of rhino has become extinct.

Quote:
or how much education young women get compared to young men.
There are plenty of young women who would disagree with you. How is it not important if half the population of a country does not get a fair shot at education?

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How about Doomsday clock
I think the Doomsday Clock is bull ****. It's based on the feelings of a group of scientists and subjective guesses. Are we really closer to destruction now than during the Cuban Missile crisis?

Quote:
or world economy?
The World economy is intimately linked with many of the questions actually asked. Women's education, vaccination, life expectancy, poverty (obviously), population growth (or lack thereof) all correlate in some way with how rich your country is. That the World economy is likely to tank fairly shortly is indeed a huge worry.
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Old 3rd September 2019, 03:02 AM   #66
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Indeed. I have to wonder what people's images of China are.

If you have visited China any time this millennium, or noticed the millions and millions of wealthy tourists travelling around other parts of Asia and in Europe, you will know that at that the very least there is a wealthy urban class in China. But it goes beyond a few cities. The whole country is becoming rich, just as not that long ago countries such as South Korea and Taiwan emerged from poverty and are now high-income economies.

I think it was 2017 when for the first time more Chinese moved from the cities to the rural areas than the other way around (Source: John B. Cobb, great book), which is because the improved living standards have reached those areas. Impressive.
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Old 3rd September 2019, 03:13 AM   #67
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
I think it was 2017 when for the first time more Chinese moved from the cities to the rural areas than the other way around (Source: John B. Cobb, great book), which is because the improved living standards have reached those areas. Impressive.
According to wikipedia the urban percentage of the total population in China in 2016 was 57.35% and in 2017 it was 58.52%. They don't have data beyond 2017, though. Does the book give some numbers that you could quote?

ETA: I found this article, which gives a number for 2018 at 59.58%, which would be an increase over 2017.
Quote:
In 2018, China's urbanization rate for the permanent resident population was 59.58 percent, while that for the registered population was 43.4 percent. The United Nations has forecast that between 2018 and 2030, there will be over 190 million new urban population in China.
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Old 3rd September 2019, 03:28 AM   #68
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Indeed. I have to wonder what people's images of China are.

If you have visited China any time this millennium, or noticed the millions and millions of wealthy tourists travelling around other parts of Asia and in Europe, you will know that at that the very least there is a wealthy urban class in China. But it goes beyond a few cities. The whole country is becoming rich, just as not that long ago countries such as South Korea and Taiwan emerged from poverty and are now high-income economies.
My info comes from documentaries about the rural people in China (about half the population) and some knowledge of how many factory workers live.

Of course, there are rich cities with wealthy people, too.

Quote:
Think in terms of how people used to suffer, regular annual famines in places such as Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Sudan etc... It wasn't that long ago that massive famines were killing millions in India and China too.
I personally just think of a "middle-income country" as something better than "slightly above constant famine".
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Old 3rd September 2019, 03:33 AM   #69
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i got 38%

Great news.
Apparently lots of people have access to electricity and live to be 70. During accelerating climate change and pollution.
And we've saved two cute animals in the middle of mass extinction.

Sorry, I'm a pessimist.
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Old 3rd September 2019, 03:34 AM   #70
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Originally Posted by Roboramma View Post
According to wikipedia the urban percentage of the total population in China in 2016 was 57.35% and in 2017 it was 58.52%. They don't have data beyond 2017, though. Does the book give some numbers that you could quote?

No, the book is a documentation of conversations in which it came up. No numbers, and it could have been 2018, not 2017. I read the book and gifted it to someone else after that.
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Old 3rd September 2019, 03:42 AM   #71
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
The white rhino is more or less extinct. Just as well he asked how the black rhino is going.
Yeah, I thought that was false optimism. In my country, the Sumatran rhino has gone extinct this year. Malayan tiger numbers might be under 100 now as poachers seem to have got about 2/3 of them. But those other animals are fine, so the world isn't so bad.
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Old 3rd September 2019, 04:11 AM   #72
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Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
My info comes from documentaries about the rural people in China (about half the population) and some knowledge of how many factory workers live.

Of course, there are rich cities with wealthy people, too.



I personally just think of a "middle-income country" as something better than "slightly above constant famine".
Great! Because China is not “slightly above constant famine”. It’s way beyond that.
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Old 3rd September 2019, 04:19 AM   #73
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Great! Because China is not “slightly above constant famine”. It’s way beyond that.
$3 a day is "slightly above constant famine" in my mind.

When I think of a "middle income country", I think of something on par with Mexico - $10,116 a year average, or closer to $27 a day.
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Old 3rd September 2019, 04:22 AM   #74
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Originally Posted by Eddie Dane View Post
i got 38%

Great news.
Apparently lots of people have access to electricity and live to be 70. During accelerating climate change and pollution.
And we've saved two cute animals in the middle of mass extinction.

Sorry, I'm a pessimist.
Originally Posted by gypsyjackson View Post
Yeah, I thought that was false optimism. In my country, the Sumatran rhino has gone extinct this year. Malayan tiger numbers might be under 100 now as poachers seem to have got about 2/3 of them. But those other animals are fine, so the world isn't so bad.
The environmental damage is clearly one of the most, if not the most serious issue, besides the grinding poverty that used to be the norm for 80% of the world’s population. Now the same levels of poverty affect 10% of the world. That’s a big improvement. It demonstrates that the world does not have to be divided into an ultra rich class who can appreciate diverse wildlife, and a mass of famine and disease stricken people.

The obvious challenge is to balance development with sustainability which is why the United Nations devised the Sustainable Development Goals in 2015.

Also, as Rosling says, it is not a case of being an optimist or a pessimist, but a ”possibilist” - which is someone who realizes what is possible and advocates for that outcome. The right course of action is to continue to get people out of absolute poverty as the number one priority, and to adopt the right kind of renewable energy for those who are already out of poverty.

I would think the Northern white rhino is...sure on the list somewhere, but pretty low down.
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 3rd September 2019, 04:23 AM   #75
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Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
$3 a day is "slightly above constant famine" in my mind.

When I think of a "middle income country", I think of something on par with Mexico - $10,116 a year average, or closer to $27 a day.
Sorry, what? China is $3 a day!? Where do you get this from?
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 3rd September 2019, 04:31 AM   #76
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Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
$3 a day is "slightly above constant famine" in my mind.

When I think of a "middle income country", I think of something on par with Mexico - $10,116 a year average, or closer to $27 a day.
Look at the bubble graph again:

China IS on a par with Mexico. It appears in exactly the same place on the graph.
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 3rd September 2019, 04:35 AM   #77
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Look at the bubble graph again:

China IS on a par with Mexico. It appears in exactly the same place on the graph.
India is way below, though, and all the $3 a day countries also count with India as "middle income".
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Old 3rd September 2019, 04:37 AM   #78
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Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
India is way below, though, and all the $3 a day countries also count with India as "middle income".
Do you at least now concede that China is middle income by your own definition?
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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Old 3rd September 2019, 04:38 AM   #79
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Do you at least now concede that China is middle income by your own definition?
Except for this:

Quote:
The figure shows that China’s average real per capita income is $12,472.51, which is in line with the world median income but far below the world average.
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Old 3rd September 2019, 04:42 AM   #80
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Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
Except for this:
You’re moving the goalposts all over the place. You said that an annual income of 2000 dollars lower than that was middle income. Now you want to talk about mean averages.

What are your definitions then? Anything below 50% is low and anything over is high, maybe? In which case nobody qualifies for middle income.
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"Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)
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