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Old 12th June 2019, 09:50 AM   #1
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2019 Polar Ice Thread

Polar sea ice is set to reach a minimum for the day of the year* in both the Arctic and Antarctic.

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/c...sea-ice-graph/


1 Is there a word for comparisons across the same day/period? It would be "phenological" in Biology, not sure about Climate Science.

Couldn't find a 2019 version of the previous sea ice threads, if there is one, Mods please move this post.
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Old 14th June 2019, 07:51 AM   #2
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And today it happened.
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Old 12th July 2019, 04:36 AM   #3
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By June 30th, the Arctic sea ice volume was shy above 12,000km3, 1,500 less than the previous year's to date and 200 below 2012's, the year that holds the minimum sea ice area on record.

By July 10th the Arctic sea ice extent was the lowest on record to that specific date, 1.5% lower than that of 2012.

Anyway, the record low of 2012 happened with the contribution of strong winds all around the region during late August and September, which scattered the remaining ice and favoured its melting. Too early to say if something similar and a new record low are going to happen this year.

NOTICE: As it is now a tradition, the scope of this thread is like its predecessors, but dealing with both polar regions. Bear that in mind when posting here.
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Old 7th August 2019, 03:05 PM   #4
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With almost a fourth of the melting season still ahead of us, the Arctic sea ice extent was yesterday covering an area smaller than the yearly record low for every year from 1979 to 2004.

That extent is now 3% smaller than the previous record low to date (2012), and by the last day of July the estimated Arctic sea ice volume was 6,464 cubic kilometres* while last year's was 7,571 and 2012's (the record low) was 6,676, so this year seems to be aiming to a new record low or a close second place.

Yesterday in the Antarctic, the sea ice extent was 0.6% above 2017's, so, second low on record for the date.

(* it was +20,000 by the 1970s-80s. The good news is that, unlike Greenland's Ice Sheet, all the ice lost has a negligible effect on sea level, exclusively caused by subtle changes in salinity)
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Old 7th August 2019, 04:25 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by aleCcowaN View Post
With almost a fourth of the melting season still ahead of us, the Arctic sea ice extent was yesterday covering an area smaller than the yearly record low for every year from 1979 to 2004.

That extent is now 3% smaller than the previous record low to date (2012), and by the last day of July the estimated Arctic sea ice volume was 6,464 cubic kilometres* while last year's was 7,571 and 2012's (the record low) was 6,676, so this year seems to be aiming to a new record low or a close second place.

Yesterday in the Antarctic, the sea ice extent was 0.6% above 2017's, so, second low on record for the date.

(* it was +20,000 by the 1970s-80s. The good news is that, unlike Greenland's Ice Sheet, all the ice lost has a negligible effect on sea level, exclusively caused by subtle changes in salinity)

I would have thought the melting of Arctic sea ice would have no effect on sea level, because it is already floating and thereby displacing as much water as it would if melted. Ice that is land based is a different matter.
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Old 7th August 2019, 05:57 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by Thor 2 View Post
I would have thought the melting of Arctic sea ice would have no effect on sea level, because it is already floating and thereby displacing as much water as it would if melted. Ice that is land based is a different matter.
Salty water and saltier water plus sea ice both coming from the first one don't occupy the same volume. But the difference in sea level is negligible, roughly in the order of 0.1mm for those 14,000 cubic kilometres. If the same amount melts from a continental ice sheet, the sea level would raise some 40mm.

This is a fact not very important, but what everyone should realize is that when sea ice is created from sea water, part of the water ends up above sea level, and that makes for a very small but larger difference.

By the way, I put some famous global warming "advocate" on ignore for good because he once manufactured a long-winded discussion with me about what I've just said being wrong and he wouldn't listen to reason no matter what.
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Old 8th August 2019, 12:17 PM   #7
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Interesting but also depressing thread...
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Old 15th August 2019, 01:26 PM   #8
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The Arctic sea ice extent dropped today below the 5 millions square kilometres mark. With some 30 days of melting left, that value is already below the yearly minimum for years 2014, 2013, 2009, 2008 and all years before 2007.

It all point to this year becoming the second lowest minimum Arctic sea ice extent on record.
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Old 10th September 2019, 11:32 AM   #9
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By August 31st the Arctic sea ice volume had dropped to only 4,170 cubic kilometres (there only was less ice during record year 2012). The sea ice extent was yesterday barely 100,000 km2 above the yearly minimums in 2007 and 2016 but it is unlikely this year is going to break those records.

So this year will end up probably ranking 4th.

That's all folks. aleCcowaN out.
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Old 18th September 2019, 11:29 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by aleCcowaN View Post
...So this year will end up probably ranking 4th.

That's all folks. aleCcowaN out.
Or is it!?
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Old 18th September 2019, 01:37 PM   #11
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Looks like it's not done yet
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Old 18th September 2019, 03:42 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by aleCcowaN View Post
Salty water and saltier water plus sea ice both coming from the first one don't occupy the same volume. But the difference in sea level is negligible, roughly in the order of 0.1mm for those 14,000 cubic kilometres. If the same amount melts from a continental ice sheet, the sea level would raise some 40mm.

This is a fact not very important, but what everyone should realize is that when sea ice is created from sea water, part of the water ends up above sea level, and that makes for a very small but larger difference.

By the way, I put some famous global warming "advocate" on ignore for good because he once manufactured a long-winded discussion with me about what I've just said being wrong and he wouldn't listen to reason no matter what.

Am struggling to understand what you are on about here. Floating ice displaces the same volume of water as liquid water, so there is no difference in sea level.

I would like to meet the 'famous global warming "advocate"' you speak of - we might have a lot in common. So you wouldn't listen to him and he wouldn't listen to you. Sounds like a productive situation.
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Old 18th September 2019, 06:19 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by Thor 2 View Post
Floating ice displaces the same volume of water as liquid water, so there is no difference in sea level.

NSIDC: Melting of Floating Ice Will Raise Sea Level
Quote:
In a paper titled "The Melting of Floating Ice will Raise the Ocean Level" submitted to Geophysical Journal International, Noerdlinger demonstrates that melt water from sea ice and floating ice shelves could add 2.6% more water to the ocean than the water displaced by the ice, or the equivalent of approximately 4 centimeters (1.57 inches) of sea-level rise.
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Old 19th September 2019, 02:44 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post

Ok, I should have said a small difference in sea level not no difference.

Your article talks about a sea level rise of 4cm if all floating ice is melted.* We are looking at a sea level rise of 60 - 70 Metres if all the land ice melts.**


* The article is a little vague but this is what I glean.
** Difficult calculation to do with accuracy because of the detailed knowledge of coastal land needed.
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Old 30th September 2019, 08:05 PM   #15
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Breaking news!


Iceberg dubbed 'D28' breaks off Antarctic shelf

An iceberg 1,636 square kilometres in size, or about the size of urban Sydney or Scotland's Isle of Skye, breaks off Antarctica.
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Old 30th September 2019, 10:29 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by Thor 2 View Post
Breaking news!


Iceberg dubbed 'D28' breaks off Antarctic shelf

An iceberg 1,636 square kilometres in size, or about the size of urban Sydney or Scotland's Isle of Skye, breaks off Antarctica.
It's not directly related to global warming, though. It was going to happen anyway - just nobody knew when.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ast-antarctica
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Old 1st October 2019, 01:21 AM   #17
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Polar ice is just cartesian ice after a coordinate transform
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Old 2nd October 2019, 02:17 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
It's not directly related to global warming, though. It was going to happen anyway - just nobody knew when.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ast-antarctica

True. Mind you I didn't say it was.

"Scientists say" the article states without saying which scientists. Sort of implying all scientists are speaking with one voice. I get a bit annoyed by this kind of sloppy reporting.
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Old 2nd October 2019, 02:22 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by Thor 2 View Post
True. Mind you I didn't say it was.

"Scientists say" the article states without saying which scientists. Sort of implying all scientists are speaking with one voice. I get a bit annoyed by this kind of sloppy reporting.
Such is life. And it's not just reporting, most people really think that way. One day scientists say meat is good. The next day scientists say meat is bad. So why would anyone listen to scientists anyway, right ? Well maybe it weren't the same scientists .. and maybe their claims had context .. and maybe one was big study and another just funny quote, we will never know. But we MUST know.
That's why I think we will never solve global warming, and we will just die. What a time to be alive though.
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Old 2nd October 2019, 02:36 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Such is life. And it's not just reporting, most people really think that way. One day scientists say meat is good. The next day scientists say meat is bad. So why would anyone listen to scientists anyway, right ? Well maybe it weren't the same scientists .. and maybe their claims had context .. and maybe one was big study and another just funny quote, we will never know. But we MUST know.
That's why I think we will never solve global warming, and we will just die. What a time to be alive though.

No argument from me on this one.

Had an argument with another member of my club a couple of days ago. Boy, this was "Gish gallop" in spades! Snippets of information from unknown sources throw at me in rapid fire. Couldn't get the dude to concentrate on one part in detail.
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Old 2nd October 2019, 06:28 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by Thor 2 View Post
Mind you I didn't say it was.
I didn't say you said it was. But I thought it was important enough to mention.
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Old 3rd October 2019, 06:13 AM   #22
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NPR’s The World had a report on an Arctic research project that would involve freezing the research vessel in the ice and following it’s movement for a year.
Reporter on the vessel said they were having difficulty finding a section of ice thick enough to support the weight of their research equipment.... And were drilling to find a section at least 1 meter thick.
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Old 12th February 2020, 11:20 PM   #23
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https://www.severe-weather.eu/global...t-february-fa/

Significant Arctic sea ice recovery.
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Old 13th February 2020, 11:36 AM   #24
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Sorry I don't call 1.6% above the average for the 2010s significant.

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Old 13th February 2020, 12:36 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by Roger Ramjets View Post
This applies to freshwater ice, but sea ice is salty (as opposed to ice shelves or the floating parts of glaciers). Salt is extruded as sea ice ages so old sea ice is more like freshwater ice, but most of the old sea ice is long gone. Even in the worst case, if all sea ice were fresh, and it all melted the impact on sea level would be about the same as a single years worth of melting in Greenland.

Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
It's not directly related to global warming, though. It was going to happen anyway - just nobody knew when.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ast-antarctica

Yes and no. While ice shelves do break up and regrow periodically under normal climate conditions, global warming means that far more is being lost than is regrown. All the major ice shelves in the artic are gone, and this is just the latest example in the Antarctic.
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Old 13th February 2020, 01:11 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by sphenisc View Post
https://www.severe-weather.eu/global...t-february-fa/

Significant Arctic sea ice recovery.
This seems at odds with what the NSIDC is reporting.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Quote:
Sea ice extent for January 2020 tracked well below average, with the monthly average tied at eighth lowest in the satellite record.
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Old 13th February 2020, 01:26 PM   #27
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It's how you play climate ball.

Eighth lowest in the satellite record could be highest in the last 11 years.

It's rules, it's always cooling and the ice is always recovering.
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Old 13th February 2020, 01:34 PM   #28
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
This seems at odds with what the NSIDC is reporting.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
I assume that's the average for the satellite record running back some 40 years. My post relates to an improvement relative to the 2001-2010 data.
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Old 13th February 2020, 01:52 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by sphenisc View Post
I assume that's the average for the satellite record running back some 40 years. My post relates to an improvement relative to the 2001-2010 data.
It's not improved relative to 2001-2010. There is 1 year prior to 2010 with less Jan sea ice than this. Also worth noting is that summer sea ice is more important and has declined more rapidly.

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Old 13th February 2020, 02:05 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
It's not improved relative to 2001-2010. There is 1 year prior to 2010 with less Jan sea ice than this. Also worth noting is that summer sea ice is more important and has declined more rapidly.

http://www.internationalskeptics.com...ictureid=12360
January is not the same thing as February. February is not a summer month in the Northern Hemisphere. The Arctic is in the Northern Hemisphere. I hope that's helped clear up your confusion.
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Old 13th February 2020, 02:17 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by sphenisc View Post
January is not the same thing as February. February is not a summer month in the Northern Hemisphere. The Arctic is in the Northern Hemisphere. I hope that's helped clear up your confusion.
It will be ~3 weeks before there is February sea ice data to discuss.
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Old 13th February 2020, 02:23 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by lomiller View Post
It will be ~3 weeks before there is February sea ice data to discuss.
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/N...eaice_analysis
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Old 13th February 2020, 02:29 PM   #33
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Kind of missing the point there, skip.
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Old 4th September 2020, 10:13 AM   #34
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Meanwhile 2020 is a bit melty, comfortably in second place behind the mighty '12.
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