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Tags David Gilroy , murder cases , Scotland cases

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Old 3rd October 2019, 11:48 AM   #721
Rolfe
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The unexplained time on the Wednesday journey is the permanent and huge stumbling block with his tale of innocence. He has never been able to give a coherent account of what he was doing or where he was for the two sizeable chunks of time. The main reason I co-operated with Darrell's podcast was that I wanted to know what Gilroy's story was in that respect, and I found out, but it was the-dog-ate-my-homework stuff.

He wasn't in any hurry. He stopped more than once. But mainly he stopped because of the trouble he was having with the car. He was concerned about it and wanted to take a look. No he doesn't remember exactly where he stopped. Somewhere after the Green Welly. But he wasn't hurrying. Same thing on the way back. On one of the stops (probably on the way back) he put the car up on the jack to take a closer look.

And that's it. It's ridiculous. First he says the car was already damaged before he left Edinburgh, but he wasn't so concerned that he called off his journey. Then after more than 80 miles, driven at a fairly normal speed, he passes the biggest service station on the journey and doesn't bother to stop there. But a little way further on he's concerned enough to pull in to the side of the road and wait there for nearly two hours! Doing what? There's nothing you can do about suspension coils by the roadside, it's not as if he was changing a wheel. You either drive on, or you turn back, or you call the AA. Why wait nearly two hours (doing what?) and then simply drive on? And why pull in to the side of the road at all? If he wasn't concerned enough to pull in to the Green Welly, then why not go on to Inveraray, which also has a garage?

Same thing on the way back, but only about an hour and a half that time. On the same leg of the journey. And he even put the car on the jack this time? But again, why not keep driving to the Green Welly and do it there, where there's at least some possibility of mechanical assistance? He hadn't broken down and the car was still capable of driving on at normal speeds. It would just have been rough and bumpy.

So that's it. There is a whole string of suspicious things in his actions on both days, but if it had all happened as it did but he hadn't lost all that time I think one might be looking at a not-proven verdict on the grounds of some reasonable doubt. But the missing three and a half hours, without any coherent or plausible explanation, on top of all the rest of it, is the nail in his metaphorical coffin I'm afraid.
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Old 3rd October 2019, 01:20 PM   #722
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As regards the whereabouts of the body, I don't think I'm going to be able to persuade the SIO of my theory (and he says others have also come up with similar theories although not so detailed) because he does have more evidence about the Rest and Be Thankful than I was able to discover from the public domain. He's pretty well convinced that Gilroy was there.

The problem I have is that obviously I don't have all the details on that and I'm not so convinced. I don't want to go into too much detail (although I wasn't told to keep it confidential), but there is eyewitness evidence of someone the witness was convinced was Gilroy somewhere in there, I think in the afternoon. However that person didn't know Gilroy personally so it's difficult to know whether to be sceptical or not. Also something about dogs which I honestly don't give much credence to.

I still think this could well be a mistake, but I could just as easily be wrong, who knows.

The SIO thinks Suzanne was still in the car boot when Gilroy got to Lochgilphead. He thinks the lost time on the outwards journey was all a recce, to find the right spot and decide where he was going to leave the body. Then he actually did it on the way back. He doesn't think Suzanne was buried, he thinks the body was dumped somewhere and that it could have taken as little as 20 minutes.

He thinks that very circuitous drive up through Tyndrum was intended to avoid driving the short distance between Tarbet and Ardgartan, because there's a very sensitive/comprehensive CCTV camera at Arrochar, "one of the best in the country". So Gilroy avoided that by sneaking up from behind via Inveraray, and then doing the same thing in reverse on the way back. So essentially the theory is that Gilroy drove an extra 100 miles or so in order to use a disposal site somewhere west of Arrochar, without actually going through Arrochar.

I asked why he thought Gilroy had turned down the A82 at Crianlarich on the way back. This seems particularly irrational to me. If he'd disposed of the body somewhere west of Arrochar, had driven all the way back to Inveraray and up through Tyndrum to Crianlarich on his way home, why on earth cut back to a circuitous route that takes him back within spitting distance of Arrochar again? The answer was odd. Apparently Gilroy has admitted he did actually go that way (I thought he had continued to deny it and said he'd gone back through Callander). Gilroy's stated reason was that it was raining heavily. The SIO said the weather records don't show it raining heavily at that time. And in any case the A84 is a far better road than the A82 at that point so that makes no sense.

The SIO's opinion however seems even less reasonable to me. He thinks that Gilroy turned south at Crianlarich because he was aware of time going on and thought he'd better get back to Edinburgh fast. And then he turned his phone back on (we agree on that being at Inveruglas, the mast was somewhere up on the side of Ben Vorlich between Ardlui and Inveruglas, not at Ardlui marina) because he'd finally got rid of the body.

But, that road is 20 miles longer than the route through Callander, and takes half an hour more. (And that's assuming you don't go wrong and end up going past the Lake of Menteith as I did when I had Darrell in the car - in contrast the A84 is far more direct.) The SIO thinks Gilroy was under the mistaken impression that it was quicker but I can't see how that can be at all likely. Also, if he got rid of the body west of Arrochar, turning his phone on just east of Arrochar, possibly drawing attention to that general area, seems perverse.

So I'm not wholly buying all this.
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Old 3rd October 2019, 04:37 PM   #723
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So here's my problem with the SIO's theory.

First and foremost I think the whole plan that Gilroy is believed to have hatched is improbable. He decided (probably the previous night) that he was going to lose the body in the Rest and Be Thankful area. So far so good. But somehow he was aware of this super-dooper CCTV camera in Arrochar. How? This thing isn't common knowledge, I for one have never heard of it and I doubt if many people who live in Edinburgh know about it even if they are in the habit of driving up that way. I'm boggling on this point already. But let's run with this. He wanted to use the R&BT area, and he knew about the Arrochar CCTV. So he thought, cunningly, if I drive the northern route and duck back into the R&BT area from the west, the cops will see I haven't passed through Arrochar so they'll never guess what I did.

This means he was prepared to use up a lot of time driving a very circuitous route, and prioritised that over having more time to conceal the body. This seems self-evidently foolhardy. The area isn’t exactly the wilds of Outer Mongolia and while there may be a decent chance that a body simply dumped in the forest somewhere won’t be found, there’s also a chance it will be, even by chance, and given that he couldn’t keep the Lochgilphead trip a secret, the body turning up anywhere accessible from a road to Lochgilphead would be pretty damning for him.

Also, even if he knew about the camera at Arrochar and knew to avoid it, how could he be sure there wasn’t another camera that would give him away? There almost was. I asked the SIO about the petrol station camera at Inveraray and he said it wasn’t there in 2010. I said you can see it on all the Streetview images right back to 2009. He said then it wasn’t working, anyway there were no images from there. But there easily could have been. If there had been, it would have nailed him going east from Inveraray without a shadow of doubt. The petrol station and the Main Street camera (apparently on a chip shop) are only a few hundred yards apart. In that very section of road, the turning he’s supposed to have taken to the R&BT happens. If he’d been caught at the petrol station at two o’clock, having driven directly from Tyndrum, then again in Main Street at 15.51 (as he actually was) then there’s no possible road he could have taken other than the A83 back east. So much for that cunning plan.

So first I don’t see how he would specifically have known about the Arrochar camera at all. And secondly, even if he did, relying on his absence from that camera to “prove” he hadn’t driven the R&BT route is very risky - what if it wasn’t working that day and the cops just assumed he’d gone that way anyway? But then thirdly, if he’s thinking about CCTV cameras, I don’t see how he could be confident that avoiding Arrochar would mean that the police wouldn’t have evidence from other cameras that would show him ducking back in from the other direction. And that evidence would have been extraordinarily incriminating.

You don’t have to follow that train of thought too far to see where it leads. If he’d gone straight to the R&BT via Arrochar, even if he was caught on that camera, well there’s nothing out of the ordinary about that, it’s probably the expected route to Lochgilphead. Then assuming he has to get to the school by half past four, that would have given him 2 hours and 13 minutes (by the AA timings) to conceal the body. Conversely if he ducks back from Inveraray and is detected doing that he has not only cut his available time roughly in half, but he has been detected taking a detour that an innocent person would have had no reason to take. Why?

The SIO agrees Gilroy knew where he was going when he set off. I think that's unarguable if he really did drive to the Rest and Be Thankful via Inveraray. However in that context the idea that he spent the entire (almost) two hours in the afternoon simply on a recce to choose his disposal site seems perverse. If he knew where he was headed, why all the driving around? (I think this is part of the explanation for the missing fuel, that he drove around for most of the missing time in the afternoon looking for the right spot.) A round trip of about 30 miles just to get to the R&BT from Inveraray, that’s 44 minutes, but then another hour and a bit scouting round for the perfect spot? But he’s supposed to have already had a spot in his mind all along, hence the non-stop (albeit circuitous) bee-line for the R&BT in the first place.

Then he finds the perfect spot - and doesn’t leave the body there. Instead he turns round and heads for Lochgilphead, leaving himself the same detour to do again on the way back in order to do the actual disposal. The SIO thinks he only had about 20 minutes actually to unload and conceal the body, on this timetable.

I can’t see it. If he really had a specific spot near the R&BT in mind, he’d have been better off not doing the circuitous journey, both as regards giving himself more time to hide the body and as regards not risking being spotted on an unknown CCTV taking an incriminating detour. Also, if he had a specific spot near the R&BT in mind, why did he need to spend such a long time finding that spot in the afternoon, then not actually disposing of the body, and then having to go back in the evening. And how did he manage to conceal the body so that a search of the right area didn’t turn anything up, even though he only spent 20 minutes concealing its whereabouts?

And finally, maybe heavy rain is an implausible excuse for cutting south through Ardlui in the evening, but thinking it was a quicker road than the Callander road is even more implausible. Nobody with any experience of these roads could possibly imagine that would be the case. And he just turned his phone on when he was only a couple of miles from Arrochar (after having driven a 65-mile detour from the other side of Arrochar), drawing attention to his presence remarkably near the R&BT, just because he had finally got rid of the body and thought it was OK now. And trusting that the camera in Arrochar (that he somehow knew about) was actually working and so the cops would realise he hadn’t actually come through the village.

This is really what the SIO thinks Gilroy did. And he thinks that because he’s convinced that the witness sighting of a man resembling Gilroy (and one or more sightings of some sort of silver car) somewhere in the R&BT area, I don’t know exactly where, was indeed Gilroy. I can’t refute that, obviously, but I am sceptical.

And yet at the same time he was talking about being quite interested in the A819 through Glen Aray (the area I started off being interested in), and the Duncan Ban road, and Glen Shira - none of which involve going into the R&BT.

As he said, it all comes down to which haystack are you going to look in, and that’s a very fair comment. But while I don’t think I’ll persuade him to give up on the R&BT, he hasn’t persuaded me to his line of thinking either.

I’m just wittering here, it’s getting late. I’ll probably make some more concise sense out of this later, but I’ll post what I just wrote anyway.
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Old 4th October 2019, 04:58 AM   #724
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So in case anyone is interested, this is what I am currently listening to:
https://www.audible.com/pd/Body-of-P...ook/B07WTXNGH8

Anyway, I agree that the story police have laid out has holes as well. Right now in the podcast they are laying a lot of weight on there being no forensic evidence. Which, taking the reliability of the dogs into account would make sense. I have gotten the opposite feeling that they are trying to give in regards to the lack of forensics. The dogs made a hit on something other than a murder spot/body spot. Of course there would be nothing to tie him to it if that isn't actually where it happened. Nothing in the trunk does give me a bit of pause considering how long they suggested the body was in the boot for, but still not impossible. So here are the current two questions that I have that I don't know there are answers for:
1. If he buried her, then went to the police station, how is there no evidence on his clothes or shoes?
2. He is thinking this a bit ahead now, so say he takes a change of clothes or something to cover up with, then uses the refuse bag he got from the school to dispose of that. Was the bag of trash found when inspecting his car? If not, did they try to locate it in the following days?

Also, thank you and the others so much for all the time and detail added to this. The maps and explanations of the roads and area make this so much easier to understand!
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Old 4th October 2019, 05:02 AM   #725
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My thesis is here. www.vetpath.co.uk/jref/gilroy.pdf
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Old 4th October 2019, 05:56 AM   #726
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I did actually download it but just haven't had a chance to read through it. I am hoping to be able to take a good look at it over the weekend.
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Old 4th October 2019, 05:58 AM   #727
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There are a few typos I noticed but I can't re-upload the file. Nothing major. One of the road numbers is wrong somewhere. A82, A83, A84 and A85, snaking across each other, get confusing.
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Old 4th October 2019, 06:46 AM   #728
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Originally Posted by kali1137 View Post
So in case anyone is interested, this is what I am currently listening to:
https://www.audible.com/pd/Body-of-P...ook/B07WTXNGH8

Anyway, I agree that the story police have laid out has holes as well. Right now in the podcast they are laying a lot of weight on there being no forensic evidence. Which, taking the reliability of the dogs into account would make sense. I have gotten the opposite feeling that they are trying to give in regards to the lack of forensics. The dogs made a hit on something other than a murder spot/body spot. Of course there would be nothing to tie him to it if that isn't actually where it happened. Nothing in the trunk does give me a bit of pause considering how long they suggested the body was in the boot for, but still not impossible. So here are the current two questions that I have that I don't know there are answers for:
1. If he buried her, then went to the police station, how is there no evidence on his clothes or shoes?
2. He is thinking this a bit ahead now, so say he takes a change of clothes or something to cover up with, then uses the refuse bag he got from the school to dispose of that. Was the bag of trash found when inspecting his car? If not, did they try to locate it in the following days?

Also, thank you and the others so much for all the time and detail added to this. The maps and explanations of the roads and area make this so much easier to understand!

I agree that the lack of forensics is an issue. I just don't think it's a fatal one. I know the mantra is "every contact leaves a trace" but I don't think that's always true. Or that the trace can be reliably found in every case.

I'm not concerned by the lack of forensics in the car boot. He'd have been nuts to put her into the boot without lining it with something. He managed to dismiss his mother after she dropped him off at his house so he was free to put whatever he thought he needed from the house into the car. What house doesn't have something in it that would line a boot to allow a body to be transported without coutact? I thought a double or even king-size duvet. Plastic sheeting would be good as well of you have some. The SIO auggested a tent and that's also a possibility. Now that means he has something else to get rid of, but that's not so hard to dump anywhere.

The lack of forensics in the alcove where they believe the body lay for around three hours is a different issue. Fluids will leak from a body. If exposed skin, say face or hands, touches the floor then you'd expect something. However it's possible he was lucky. She was fully clothed including a fleece and it's possible her skin never touched the floor, or at least not in the places they sampled.

It is the biggest issue though. I don't believe in the dogs. I think the dogs often indicate the places they think their handler wants or expects them to indicate. But do I believe it's less likely that there was no forensic trace in the alcove, or that Suzanne jumped into some acquaintance's car on the doorstep of her work and immediately turned her phone off, and was then spirited away by this unknown malevolent friend and came to harm somewhere else? In context I'm going with the alcove. The context of course being that the police found no candidate for the part of "friend of Suzanne's whom she might have gone off in a car with and been murdered by" and conversely we have David Gilroy exhibiting a series of peculiar behaviours all of which are capable of being explained as someone trying to conceal a body.
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Old 4th October 2019, 06:57 AM   #729
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The SIO thinks he didn't change clothes, maybe he put on overalls or a boiler suit. Maybe a set of waterproofs. But then the SIO thinks he didn't bury her, that the body was only dumped and he maybe only took 20 minutes to do it. I'm not at all sure that I agree. First of all he looked perfectly neat and tidy at Lochgilphead and second he went straight to the police station and although I'm not sure what forensics they did on him right there and then as he was a witness not a suspect, they certainly didn't have anything on him as regards wet or muddy clothes or shoes.
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Old 4th October 2019, 07:32 AM   #730
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My thoughts thus far, I think the dogs made them focus in the wrong place and that is the only reason no trace was found. I think the police have enough things wrong, and of course he knows they are wrong, so he is hanging his hat on those facts to keep claiming innocence.
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Old 5th October 2019, 01:12 PM   #731
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
He thinks that very circuitous drive up through Tyndrum was intended to avoid driving the short distance between Tarbet and Ardgartan, because there's a very sensitive/comprehensive CCTV camera at Arrochar, "one of the best in the country". So Gilroy avoided that by sneaking up from behind via Inveraray, and then doing the same thing in reverse on the way back. So essentially the theory is that Gilroy drove an extra 100 miles or so in order to use a disposal site somewhere west of Arrochar, without actually going through Arrochar.

Is there any evidence that Gilroy was aware of this?
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Old 5th October 2019, 03:25 PM   #732
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Well, exactly. It's not the talk of every New Town dinner party that's for sure.
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Old 5th October 2019, 04:35 PM   #733
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More questions than answers

According to the SIO :

1 - Gilroy drove from Tyndrum to R&BT area with the body in the boot on a recce mission where he pinpointed a dump site but he did not dump the body at this stage and instead went to Lochgilphead. At this time there was a "witness sighting of a man resembling Gilroy"

2 - After finishing his "inspection" at Lochgilphead Gilroy then drove from Lochgilphead to the previously pinpointed dump site in the R&BT area and dumped the body.

3 - Rather than driving 4 miles from the R&BT area to Tarbet he drives from the R&BT area back to Inverary/Tyndrum/Crianlarich/Tarbet which is 67 miles in order to avoid "a very sensitive/comprehensive CCTV camera at Arrochar, "one of the best in the country".

Assuming the witness was correct in their identification of Gilroy in the afternoon, then ok, Gilroy was there in the afternoon, but there is no mention of a witness sighting in the evening.

Why assume that Gilroy returned to the R&BT area in the evening ?

"He thinks that very circuitous drive up through Tyndrum was intended to avoid driving the short distance between Tarbet and Ardgartan, because there's a very sensitive/comprehensive CCTV camera at Arrochar, "one of the best in the country".

According to the SIO Gilroy anticipated that by driving from Inveraray to Tarbet via Arrochar he would get caught on CCTV but then to avoid this he drove west back to Inveraray/Tyndrum/Crianlarich and on to Tarbet he would have driven 67 miles rather than drive 4 miles to get from the R&BT area to Tarbet.

Would he have anticipated that he would have not been caught on CCTV at the Gulf petrol station on the A819 at Inverary ? (Gilroy has no way of knowing if this camera was working or not)

"I asked why he thought Gilroy had turned down the A82 at Crianlarich on the way back. This seems particularly irrational to me. If he'd disposed of the body somewhere west of Arrochar, had driven all the way back to Inveraray and up through Tyndrum to Crianlarich on his way home, why on earth cut back to a circuitous route that takes him back within spitting distance of Arrochar again? The answer was odd. Apparently Gilroy has admitted he did actually go that way (I thought he had continued to deny it and said he'd gone back through Callander). Gilroy's stated reason was that it was raining heavily. The SIO said the weather records don't show it raining heavily at that time. And in any case the A84 is a far better road than the A82 at that point so that makes no sense."


"Apparently Gilroy has admitted he did actually go that way (I thought he had continued to deny it and said he'd gone back through Callander). Gilroy's stated reason was that it was raining heavily."

weather.jpg

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Old 6th October 2019, 06:55 AM   #734
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More questions than answers indeed.

If he really did travel the way the police think he did, it certainly looks as if he was intent on avoiding that short stretch of road between Tarbet and, say, Ardgartan. It's interesting that there's a super-dooper CCTV camera there. But what are the chances of him knowing about it? I'd say close to zero. Also, if he was indeed thinking about CCTV cameras when he was planning his route, surely it would occur to him that the one in Arrochar (or thereabouts), even if he knew it was there, isn't likely to be the only one that might catch him.

My thought on that is that being caught on camera simply driving west through Arrochar isn't a disaster, because it merely confirms which way he went and doesn't show him deviating from a reasonable route to Lochgilphead. However being caught on camera in Inveraray turning back east on the A83, which could very easily have happened, would demonstrate that he was doing something extraordinarily peculiar which would be significantly incriminating.

And as for the excuses for the Ardlui route in the evening, nothing makes sense. Gilroy said it was because it was raining heavily. That's nonsense two ways. One because it wasn't raining heavily (nice find, NotD), and indeed the SIO knows this, and two, becasue the Ardlui road is a worse road than the Callander road. The last thing I'd do is head for the A82 Loch Lomondside road because of bad weather - particularly in 2010 before it was upgraded (which happened in 2013 I believe). So he's lying about why he took that road, which suggests that the real reason is something he doesn't want to tell the police.

But the police think he took that road because he realised time was getting on and he thought it would be a quicker way back to Edinburgh. There are two things wrong with that. First, it isn't. It's 20 miles longer and the driving time is 30 minutes longer. Not only that, the road through Callander is direct and you really can't go wrong. The road through Drymen is prone to wrong turnings, especially in the dark. I can't see how anyone who was even remotely familiar with these roads - as Gilroy was - could imagine for a minute that turning on to the A82 was going to be quicker.

Here's the right turn he would have had to make, Streetview image from only about six weeks before his journey. There's a big sign warning of major roadworks at Ardlui. I can only imagine these were completed before 5th May because that would have been a complete no-no if it had still been the case. But regardless of that, the sign points to GLASGOW. He's already on the Edinburgh road. Why would he imagine that turning off on to the Glasgow road would get him to Edinburgh quicker? In fact it's essentially certain he would have known it wasn't.

https://goo.gl/maps/nacyNVpRPwsDzgcx8

And the other thing that argies against this is, if it was the real reason, why not just say so? No reason not to, and an improvement on inventing nonexistent heavy rain. In fact, not saying "I thought that road might get me back to Edinburgh sooner" is highly supportive of the proposition that he knew perfectly well that that was a daft thing to think.

Now I admit that my own theory is highly speculative, and suffers from the additional problem that I have to postulate that he made a mistake and turned the phone on three or four miles before he intended to turn it on. But at least it's a theory that accounts for the known facts and doesn't rely on obvious nonsense like it being a better road to take in heavy rain, or it being possibly a quicker way back to Edinburgh than the direct A84.
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Old 6th October 2019, 08:14 AM   #735
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In essence, this goes back to the fundamental decision about whether to prioritise misdirection of the investigators or efficient concealment of the body. The police clearly believe he was doing the former, with a huge amount of time spent driving around the countryside (in a car with borked suspension) and only an estimated 20 minutes to get the body out of the car and concealed. To me this makes no sense.

The big risk he was taking with the Argyll drive was that the body would be found somewhere accessible from that drive. If it turned up, whether in Hell's Glen or beside the Allt Broighleachan, he would be essentially toast. His only defence would have been to claim that the real murderer must have deposited the body there later, after the details of his drive had been made public, to incriminate him, and nobody would have believed him. And bear in mind that this would have to hold for 40 or even 50 years, or he'd be in more or less the position Bill MacDowell is in right now.

He wouldn't only have had to think about the police search as such, but about accidental discovery possibly at a later date. Supposing the police had spent all their effort searching Glen Orchy and around Dalmally and completely ignored the Arrochar Alps. Fine. But then say 10 or even 20 years later a forestry worker or a hiker just happens to stumble over human remains in a forest or a gully or among rocks. He's toast. He must have known that.

The only way to be even moderately relaxed about this for the rest of his life would be to get the body under ground. Even the drainage sumps at the R&BT, although they look like a really good solution if you can manage to avoid the searchers looking there (they looked), won't cut it, because at some time in the next 40 years it's likely some maintenance work will be done down there. Under ground is really the only safe disposal method in the long term.

(OK, there is another one, and that is incineration, but the only way to arrange that in this case is to dispose of the body in a refuse container that will be picked up by the council. That has been done successfully - detected because the murderer confessed - but it was his own home rubbish collection, he was able to dismember the body and put it out piecemeal with the bits disguised in bin bags, and he happened to know that the rubbish from his street went straight to incineration. In this case, although it's one thing the SIO mentioned as a possibility, I don't think it's a runner. Who would risk dropping an entire corpse into a refuse bin, not even knowing when the next collection was or how the rubbish was handled?)

I think Gilroy would have been very rash to have driven far from his core route, because being seen far from his core route (either on CCTV or by a witness) is extremely suspicious, and because it would take up time he needed to get the body properly concealed. Burying a body takes time, but I think he had to do it. He had the season of the year on his side. If he managed to accomplish a burial somewhere fairly remote then nature would do the rest for him fairly quickly. The searches didn't start until June. By then they could have walked right over a grave site without seeing it.

To spend all that time driving to draw off the scent, then spend only 20 minutes dumping the body above ground, is a very very bad plan indeed. Even if it's successful it leaves him wide open to accidental discovery of the body. And in this case, if he did what the police thought he did, it wasn't even successful. They've been searching exactly where he spent all that driving time trying to prevent them from searching. And yet they haven't found anything. This does not compute.
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Old 6th October 2019, 09:10 AM   #736
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Roadworks half a mile south of Ardlui

"Here's the right turn he would have had to make, Streetview image from only about six weeks before his journey. There's a big sign warning of major roadworks at Ardlui."

I hadn't noticed the sign at Crianlarich indicating major roadworks at Ardlui (from March 2010)

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@56.39...2!8i6656?hl=en

Further down the A82 there is another roadworks sign 1 mile north of Ardlui (from April 2010) showing "delays possible until July 2010"

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@56.31...2!8i6656?hl=en

Heres the actual roadworks, traffic light controlled and single lane traffic.

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@56.29...2!8i6656?hl=en

Assuming the roadworks were ongoing from March 2010 to July 2010 then on 5th May 2010 the roadworks were still there.

This means that either Gilroy did not notice the roadworks sign at Crianlarich and continued on the A82 thinking it was a quicker route to get to Edinburgh (if we are expected to believe this explanation) or Gilroy did see the roadworks sign and even though he knew there would be roadwork delays on the A82 it was a vital part of his plan to take the A82 from Crianlarich.

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Old 6th October 2019, 10:24 AM   #737
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Oh for crying out loud.

It may be that the bit of the sign at Crianlarich that's blurred out actually says something like "delays possible". If this was until July 2010 as it says on the other sign, the Crianlarich sign would still have been there on the day Gilroy did the drive. And look what they're doing. It looks as if that's the road widening that I had assumed didn't take place until 2013, when the roundabout was built at Crianlarich. It could be that the roundabout was done towards the end of the project. Although I do have a memory of driving that road in May 2012 and thinking it was little better than a cart track. It's possible I'm remembering a section that hadn't yet been done, rather than the entire Tarbet-Crianlarich stretch.

You can actually see it very well in this view here, and how narrow the road was before that was done.

https://goo.gl/maps/qKRsXEjuLdYM5qnF7

It seems as if Gilroy wasn't actually delayed significantly by these road works. The SIO agrees that he was at Inveruglas rather than Ardlui when he turned his phone on. He says the mast was a bit south of Ardlui, up on a shoulder of Ben Vorlich, it wasn't the one at the marina. So that makes sense. So we don't have to explain a seven-minute delay between Tyndrum and Ardlui, and indeed seven minutes is longer than you'd be delayed for by something like that in any case, unless the traffic was extraordinarily heavy which it wouldn't have been at half past nine at night. It's quite possible the road was open at that time, with the single-file lights-controlled section only operational when the workmen were actually working. I see that quite often.

But the presence of these road works, with the warning sign at the junction in Crianlarich, really kills any suggestion that he went that way because he thought it would be quicker, or better, or would avoid some delay. He's turning on to a road which at that time was notorious for being narrow and bendy with a poor surface, which was undergoing (much needed) improvements which involved road works causing "long delays". For pity's sake.

This makes it even more compelling that he took that road with a very deliberate and purposeful plan presumably ained at covering his tracks. I can only think of my own suggestoin about the mobile phone connection trail. I'm open to any other suggestions though.
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Old 6th October 2019, 02:48 PM   #738
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"This makes it even more compelling that he took that road with a very deliberate and purposeful plan presumably ained at covering his tracks. I can only think of my own suggestoin about the mobile phone connection trail. I'm open to any other suggestions though."

To dispose of the clothes/duvet/tent although he had more time to do this prior to passing Tyndrum unless he knew of the perfect disposal site between Crainlarich and Ardlui.

To make a phone call here

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@56.30...2!8i6656?hl=en

More likely, Gilroy switched his phone an at 21.34 near Inveruglas because

1 - He thought he was at or past Tarbet and this would show he drove from Inveraray to Tarbet via the R&BT.

2 - He knows the police would pinpoint he was at Inveruglas at 21.34 and he would hope the police would assume he drove Inveraray/Tyndrum/Inveruglas and did not go near the R&BT.

Police "We have reason to believe you were at the R&BT"

Gilroy "If I went to the R&BT why would I not go past Arrochar to get to Tarbet ?"

Police "Because you know about the super-dooper CCTV camera at Arrochar"

Gilroy "What camera ?"

Lokking around Arrochar there are some possibie super-dooper CCTV cameras

Here at the Esso petrol station

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@56.20...2!8i6656?hl=en

Here on the side of the fruit and veg shop

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@56.20...2!8i6656?hl=en

There is also a speed camera sign here just after Ardgartan although I can't see the camera

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@56.19...2!8i6656?hl=en

There is also a speed camera sign here on the A85 here

https://www.google.com/maps/@56.4034...7i13312!8i6656


Gilroy could have mistakenly thought these speed cameras could picture him passing, timestamp the image and store the image (they dont as the images are overwritten every 15 minutes)

When he passed the A85 camera he thinks he will be recorded by the speed camera, thats ok as he can just say he stopped to have a look at his car if he passes this camera later than he should have.

There is no way to get from the R&BT to Tarbet without passing the A83 speed camera at Ardgartan so if he thinks the camera will record him he has to go back to Inveraray to get to Tarbet via Tyndrum/Crianlarich.

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Old 6th October 2019, 03:00 PM   #739
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Seen right now on twitter. Bwahahahaha. Honestly, the Callander road is scarcely ever closed. Over the Rest and Be Thankful there's a good chance half a mountain will fall on you, and on the A82 Loch Lomondside road it's basically 50/50 that you'll hit some damnfool tourist who forgot the "links fahren" bit.

https://twitter.com/trafficscotland/...66460379877376
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Old 6th October 2019, 03:38 PM   #740
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This thread is nearly 5 years old and still, when I see the title, I read it as David Gilmour. That quite upsets me.
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Old 6th October 2019, 05:24 PM   #741
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Originally Posted by NightOfTheDemon View Post
"This makes it even more compelling that he took that road with a very deliberate and purposeful plan presumably aimed at covering his tracks. I can only think of my own suggestoin about the mobile phone connection trail. I'm open to any other suggestions though."

To dispose of the clothes/duvet/tent although he had more time to do this prior to passing Tyndrum unless he knew of the perfect disposal site between Crainlarich and Ardlui.

He didn't stop, or at least not long enough to cause him to fall behind the AA speed for that route, even with three broken suspension coils. It's unlikely he knew much if anything about the road between Crianlarich and Tarbet, because that road isn't one that anyone based in Edinburgh would usually take. It's the main drag north from Glasgow, for all its faults, but it doesn't take anyone from Edinburgh anywhere useful.

And as you say, the missing time was before Tyndrum. If he was getting rid of serious evidence, he did it before Tyndrum. And in the daylight.

Originally Posted by NightOfTheDemon View Post

Now you're getting silly. Again, he didn't stop long enough on that section of road to do anything much. And there's no reason at all he would have known that phone box was there, because there's no reason he'd have been familiar with that stretch of road. And there are (or were) probably phone boxes in Tyndrum, Crianlarich, Strathyre, Lochearnhead etc. as well. And who was he phoning and why? That he couldn't just use his mobile to phone?

Originally Posted by NightOfTheDemon View Post
More likely, Gilroy switched his phone an at 21.34 near Inveruglas because

1 - He thought he was at or past Tarbet and this would show he drove from Inveraray to Tarbet via the R&BT.

That's the only half-rational thing I can think of.

Originally Posted by NightOfTheDemon View Post
2 - He knows the police would pinpoint he was at Inveruglas at 21.34 and he would hope the police would assume he drove Inveraray/Tyndrum/Inveruglas and did not go near the R&BT.

Police "We have reason to believe you were at the R&BT"

Gilroy "If I went to the R&BT why would I not go past Arrochar to get to Tarbet ?"

Look, if he wanted the police to think he hadn't been anywhere near the R&BT, the best thing he could possibly have done was go right on driving straight through Crianlarich heading for Lochearnhead. And maybe switch his phone on about there. The last thing he should have been doing if he wanted the cops to think he'd driven up by Tyndrum and not over the Rest and Be Thankful to Tarbet is drive back to Tarbet! If his phone had failed to pick up that mast on the side of Ben Vorlich and hadn't got a signal till he was closer to Tarbet, it would have looked exactly as if he'd just come down the A83 from Inveraray!

Originally Posted by NightOfTheDemon View Post
Police "Because you know about the super-dooper CCTV camera at Arrochar"

Gilroy "What camera ?"

Looking around Arrochar there are some possibie super-dooper CCTV cameras

Here at the Esso petrol station

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@56.20...2!8i6656?hl=en

Here on the side of the fruit and veg shop

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@56.20...2!8i6656?hl=en

There is also a speed camera sign here just after Ardgartan although I can't see the camera

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@56.19...2!8i6656?hl=en

There is also a speed camera sign here on the A85 here

https://www.google.com/maps/@56.4034...7i13312!8i6656

Gilroy could have mistakenly thought these speed cameras could picture him passing, timestamp the image and store the image (they dont as the images are overwritten every 15 minutes)

When he passed the A85 camera he thinks he will be recorded by the speed camera, thats ok as he can just say he stopped to have a look at his car if he passes this camera later than he should have.

There is no way to get from the R&BT to Tarbet without passing the A83 speed camera at Ardgartan so if he thinks the camera will record him he has to go back to Inveraray to get to Tarbet via Tyndrum/Crianlarich.

Uh, no, to just about all of that.

Well you could be right about the CCTV camera being one of these but "one of the best in the country"? A wee shop or a petrol station? (That petrol station is unmanned, at least it was when I used it a couple of months ago, and you can't get a drop into your tank unless you've already given it your bank card, so it's less in need of cameras to catch driveaways than most.) I think there may be one or two actual official spy cameras dotted around the country here and there, although I'm not sure. I've always had my suspicions about this thing, which is on a main road near my home.

https://goo.gl/maps/tChDHwUyMFQfBdLH8

It isn't one of Traffic Scotland's cameras that are online to allow motorists to check the condition of the road - the only one near there is about eight miles further north and can be seen here.

https://goo.gl/maps/QtDnsbCxGCjk8rvu6

That is the camera that gives the two "Boghall" views of the A702 that can be accessed from this page.

https://trafficscotland.org/livetraf...x?groupby=Road

These are the things that just take a single picture every 20 minutes or so, to monitor road conditions. Since the thing I pointed to above (which is at Nine Mile Burn) isn't that, I don't know what it is. (There is a Traffic Scotland weather station at Nine Mile Burn which has no camera, but I've spotted that and it's about half a mile south of the mystery camera-object, so it's not that either.)

Looking at the A82 in the general vicinity of Arrochar I see this, which doesn't look like either of the above contraptions and again I have no idea what it is.

https://goo.gl/maps/XYU1khN8HebNvbUD6

But if Gilroy saw that at some time and registered it and thought, oh goodness me, if I ever want to make the police think I haven't driven this way I have to avoid this bit of road, then he's cleverer than about 99.9% of the population. Another point about that thing, whatever it is - it's possible to circumvent it merely by driving down Church Road and then back up the A814, so this all seems a bit pointless. Surely the cops wouldn't put a super-dooper spy camera on a stretch of road that could be so easily driven round? (The thing at Nine Mile Burn, whatever it is, does not have an easy local drivearound.) But I've tabbed along that road as far as Ardgartan and I can't see anything that looks like the Nine Mile Burn contraption. Although I could easily have overlooked something - you want to try it?

Talking of Traffic Scotland cameras, there are cameras at the Rest and Be Thankful, Tyndrum (opposite the Tyndrum Inn) and Dalmally now, but these are a more modern-looking design than the one at Boghall (which was there right back as far as 2008) and they seem to have appeared between 2009 and 2011. The Streetview image for March 2010 at Tyndrum doesn't show that one, so if they were all installed at the same time, unless that time was April 2010, they post-date Gilroy's journey.

Anyway, these things are harmless as regards tracking murderers because they only take one snap every 20 minutes to monitor road conditions. However my main point is that there are numerous things all around the roads, and that was the case in 2010 too, many of which are irrelevant, and how is any random driver going to know what's going to catch him and what isn't? How come Gilroy was hyper-aware of something at Arrochar but blissfully unaware of everything else including filling station driveaway checks?

As regards speed cameras, there aren't any. They put these wee signs up to rattle people into thinking there are, but there aren't and anyone who has driven that road knows there are none on it. Also, anyone who has ever driven a car knows that speed cameras only catch you if you're speeding. They don't take a continuous scan of the road (or even something that's over-written after 15 minutes), they're only triggered into life by someone going too fast. Gilroy wasn't going too fast. But there aren't any speed cameras there anyway.

I honestly think the cops are reasoning down the wrong channel here. I don't see how he could have known about this camera at Arrochar, and even if he did, what they think he did is not a rational response to that knowledge.

And now I realise that he took that right turn on to the A82 when there was a big yellow sign warning of road works at Ardlui and the possibility of delays, I'm even more sure than I was that this move was somehow significant. If it wasn't an attempt to leave a misleading mobile phone trail, I don't know what it was.
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Old 7th October 2019, 02:34 AM   #742
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I asked on twitter about the thing at Nine Mile Burn and the most likely explanation is that it's a housing for traffic monitoring cameras which will be empty most of the time but which will have cameras installed when they want to monitor the traffic flow on that particular road.

I think the point that I'm slowly groping towards is that there are all sorts of things on the road which might or might not record a car passing by. The general public really has no way of knowing what many of them are, whether they're even cameras at all, or whether (if they are) they're actually making a continuous record of passing traffic. I'd have put a fair bet on that thing at Nine Mile Burn being a permanent CCTV monitoring station but it seems it may not be.

Against this background, and the presence of random CCTV cameras on filling stations and other businesses, I don't see how it's remotely plausible that David Gilroy was specifically aware of this thing at Arrochar, whether it's a private camera on a business or an official police installation. The police theory doesn't make sense to me.

They seem to have done a lot of work on possible witness sightings of silver cars and people who looked like Gilroy. Apparently there were moss collectors in the area that day with a silver car and that got a lot of sightings and they had to tease these out from things that might have been Gilroy. There's also the question of locked gates. I think the SIO said some gates were open because the moss collectors were going into the forest, but he was also talking about who had keys for which gates and when. The SIO seems convinced that the eyewitness really saw Gilroy, even though the man didn't know Gilroy personally, and I'm really not sure how much confidence to put in this. Apparently the witness was struck by the man because he bore a strong resemblance to someone else the witness knew. Fair enough, but coincidences happen and I wonder if this could be the one that's led the investigation astray.

The SIO said something about gates being more likely to be unlocked in the evening. That's not my experience. It seems to me gates get unlocked in the day time if there is work going on beupnd them, then locked again at night. Either way, if a gate was locked Gilroy wouldn't have had any way to get the key, and if it was unlocked he might have been wary of running into whoever was working there and/or finding the gate locked against him when he tried to get back out again. (Also, if his suspension was already damaged when he got to Lochgilphead he must have been up a track on the outward journey.)
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Old 7th October 2019, 03:02 AM   #743
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Slightly peripheral : there's a campaign to get a body farm started in the UK as its climate(s) doesn't fit well with existing ones. Quite an interesting talk at Barnsley Skeptics in the Pub a while back on the subject. A quick google suggests it may be building momentum.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01436-8

eta: The article contains a link to another on the poor state of UK forensic science
https://www.nature.com/news/uk-foren...nquiry-1.13444
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Old 7th October 2019, 04:09 AM   #744
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The thing is, if Gilroy ducked straight off his core route into a very quiet road, like the B8074, and from there straight up a deserted forest track, without stopping and without getting out of the car, there's an extremely high chance nobody would see him at all. The police theory has him first driving maybe 13 miles back along an A road once he's off his core route, and then getting out of his car (I assume) and showing his face where there are other people around to see him. Why would he do that?

Why would he avoid one particular stretch of road because he knew there was a camera on it (HOW?), but then not worry about being caught by other cameras while engaged in this bizarre detour? Help me out here someone.
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Old 7th October 2019, 04:11 AM   #745
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Originally Posted by Wudang View Post
Slightly peripheral : there's a campaign to get a body farm started in the UK as its climate(s) doesn't fit well with existing ones. Quite an interesting talk at Barnsley Skeptics in the Pub a while back on the subject. A quick google suggests it may be building momentum.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01436-8

eta: The article contains a link to another on the poor state of UK forensic science
https://www.nature.com/news/uk-foren...nquiry-1.13444

Thanks, that's interesting. Of course we don't actually have this body, which doesn't help. (I watched a dead bird decompose on my garden path and it was about four weeks to skeleton and feathers.)
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Old 7th October 2019, 01:49 PM   #746
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"It's interesting that there's a super-dooper CCTV camera there. But what are the chances of him knowing about it? I'd say close to zero."

He is more likely to worry about getting caught on the Inveraray petrol station camera.

The petrol station is called the Arch filling station and in April 2009 a fuel company called "TP" supplied the fuel but from June 2009 "Gulf" dealt with the fuel.

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@56.23...2!8i6656?hl=en

" I asked the SIO about the petrol station camera at Inveraray and he said it wasn’t there in 2010. I said you can see it on all the Streetview images right back to 2009. He said then it wasn’t working, anyway there were no images from there."

Whether that means the camera was faulty or not on or was working but was not pointing at the road or was working and pointing at the road but did not capture Gilroy passing needs to be clarified.

Did the police view the images between 13.23 and 15.51 from a camera pointing at the road and although they were expecting Gilroy to pass he didnt ?

I would have thought that this petrol station (BP on 5/5/2010 - a high profile company who would discourage driveoffs by installing working cameras) could have driveoffs due to its location so if Gilroy was not caught on these cameras (assuming they were working and pointing at the road) he could have bypassed the petrol station.

There is a way to bypass the Inveraray petrol station (take a left on the A819 just before it then a right) gets you on the A83 east of the junction of the A83/A819.)

If it can be shown that between 13.23 and 15.51 Gilroys car was not pictured on a working camera pointing at the road from the petrol station then this would suggest he would have bypassed the petrol station in order to drive east of Inveraray.

If he was passing the petrol station just prior to passing through Inveraray on the way to Lochgilphead then there was no need to bypass the petrol station.

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Old 7th October 2019, 04:33 PM   #747
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I don't really see how they can know whether he had any knowledge of any of the CCTV cameras or not. It's not as if he's going to tell them. And in fact it was news to me that traffic could be tracked by looking at private business security cameras and that service stations are a common place for such images to be available, until I started looking closely at this case. It became clear looking at the police appeal in relation to Gilroy's journey that they didn't have any police CCTV images of him and all the images they did have were from private security cameras.

I would have thought that either he didn't know anything specific about CCTV cameras and was hoping for the best, or he was aware in general terms that there might be a CCTV record of his journey in which case I'd have thought that he'd generally plan to minimise the chance of being caught away from his core route. The idea that he was paranoid about one specific camera and not taking into account that there might be others seems implausible.

I think we have to assume that the Arch camera wasn't recording that day or something. I'm sure if it had been and he hadn't appeared on it at all, that would have been a point that would have come out. Sure you can go round the back of that one but if you did you'd miss the one in Main Street West too, so I think we can safely say he didn't. (You can't get round the back of the Green Welly though.) The other place he might have shown up but didn't is Lix Toll. He must have passed there and I'd have thought they would have had a camera, but in fact I can't see one pointing to the road, at least on Streetview. Same thing with the Dreadnaught garage in Callander. He must have passed it, no record of that, and although I can see what look like cameras they don't seem to cover the road.

So he certainly couldn't have known whether any given service station would catch him or not. Doune Motors and the Green Welly did, Dreadnaught, Lix Toll and the Arch didn't. And then we got the chip ship camera in Inveraray Main Street as a bonus. If that's still there I couldn't see it and I don't think he could have guessed that was there.

In general I think if he was aware of cameras at all he'd have tried to avoid main roads and habitation while he was off-piste. Driving 13 miles back to the R&BT on the A83 is not that, even though Cairndow is bypassed. I think he'd only have taken a sizeable detour if he wasn't factoring in the possibility of CCTV coverage. The idea that he only factored in one camera at Arrochar and risked being caught taking a huge detour to avoid it is perverse.
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Old 7th October 2019, 06:06 PM   #748
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Seen right now on twitter. Bwahahahaha. Honestly, the Callander road is scarcely ever closed. Over the Rest and Be Thankful there's a good chance half a mountain will fall on you, and on the A82 Loch Lomondside road it's basically 50/50 that you'll hit some damnfool tourist who forgot the "links fahren" bit.

https://twitter.com/trafficscotland/...66460379877376

Seen again just now. These are automated tweets but I assume the same obstruction hasn't been there for over 24 hours.

https://mobile.twitter.com/trafficsc...74650137350146

So that's two major blockages there within 24 hours. And yet that's the way he thought was quicker?
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Old 8th October 2019, 04:19 AM   #749
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So I have finished up the pod series, Rolfe, you are in the final episode and did great. The overall feeling that I get from it, is they want you to think he has been railroaded and might likely be innocent. A surface listening would lead to this conclusion also. If I hadn't come here as soon as I began listening, I may have been convinced the trial was a shame also. I know you both have been following this for a long time and I am new to this case, so I hope you won't mind a few questions.

When he is seen on camera checking under his car, was that before or after the large gap of missing time on the trek?
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Old 8th October 2019, 06:03 AM   #750
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I think you could make a ghost of a case for reasonable doubt, depending really on what you call reasonable. You hear hoofbeats. The prosecution says it's horses. If the defence can make a case that it's donkeys, that's reasonable. If they're reduced to trying to claim it's zebras, that's not reasonable. And of course many cases get into unicorns territory.

For me this is zebras but not unicorns. The two things that push me to zebras are the unexplained time on the journey (as the cherry on the top of the rest of his suspicious actions) and the fact that Suzanne's mobile phone was switched off while it was still in or near Thistle Street. It didn't ping a mast travelling away from there as you'd expect it to if she had got into a car and been driven away.

The thing I like about this case is that it was investigated honestly. It's not like the Luke Mitchell case where they decided "the boyfriend did it" right at the start and then simply datamined the evidence for factoids to support that theory. Yes I think they developed suspicions about Gilroy quite early, basically when they realised how much over-time the Lochgilphead trip was running (so probably about 10.30 on the evening of the 5th) and they definitely treated him as a suspect before he was cautioned and while he was still officially being interviewed as a witness, but that's not railroading. That's playing a bit close to the wire when you suddenly realise you may well have a murderer rather than a witness and you don't want to let any evidence go.

I don't know about the video of him looking under his car except what Darrell said. He said it was at the service station at Queensferry Road when he filled up at the very start of his journey well before any of the missing time happened. The SIO said to me that his car was definitely not damaged before be left. I don't know how he knows this but they did take the car and interrogate its computer as well as measure the remaining fuel, so that may be how.

What I don't understand at all is why he would have continued on what was a completely non-essential journey into the wilds of freaking nowhere if he was concerned about his car. From what Darrell and others have said of his character, this is not in character. His story is that he just wanted out of the office because everybody was dementing on about bloody Suzanne and he'd had it up to here with Suzanne. I don't find that terribly compelling I have to say.

I am a little wary of some of Darrell's facts because he has been talking to Gilroy and taking his word for certain things, and I don't think Gilroy is always telling the truth. For example Darrell said that the camera at the Green Welly didn't show the car's number plate because he just drove past, and there's no proof that was him. All the cops did was say, there's a silver car at about the right time, that must be him. However the SIO said (and I think I remember this from earlier press coverage too) that he had a red umbrella on the parcel shelf of the car and the red umbrella could be seen on the Green Welly CCTV image which confirmed it was the right car.

I forgot to ask the SIO whether Darrell's story that the "air fresheners" were just the blocks you put inside toilet bowls and he bought them for the house and they were found in the house was true. (No comment about whether they were still wrapped.) I suspect this may not be the whole story.

Sure, everyone has the right to put his case and try to persuade the public that he has been wrongly convicted. So knock yourself out sonny. But he needs to do a much better job than he's doing. His web site is cagey and obfuscatory, focussing on process rather than facts, and the crucial information, that is what the hell he was doing for three and a half extra hours when he was off-piste on that journey, isn't even addressed.
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Old 8th October 2019, 06:58 AM   #751
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I agree they didn't put on a convincing case of innocence and Gilroy contradicts himself a few times. Once saying he isn't a drinker, then saying the state of his condition that morning was due to a hangover. Even Darrell and team admit that his excuse for extra time doesn't ring true but they gloss over it very quickly and never bring it up again. I wish there was more available to the public, as in other cases, so you can sort the fact from the fiction of those podcasts. I have to admit that it's a fascinating case.
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Old 8th October 2019, 08:59 AM   #752
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I think a convincing case for factual innocence is out of reach. Reasonable doubt is more realistic, but it's been noted before that campaigns to right perceived miscarriages of justice are seldom mounted on the basis of reasonable doubt. Pretty much everyone who champions such a cause believes the accused person to be actually innocent.

And frankly without at least an attempt at an explanation for the missing time, reasonable doubt is going to be hard to sustain too. The judge at Gilroy's appeal said that the defence had almost nothing but "presumption of innocence" to go on. He in effect just sat there are said, "OK, prove it". I actually think he may have started out by believing that he couldn't be convicted if the body was never found and so hadn't prepared a cover story as well as he might have done. I suspect he got a bit of a shock when he discovered that this wasn't the case.

I mean, it's not as if the journey was some time in the past when he was asked where he'd been. He hadn't even been home. It was that day's activities. He should have had no difficulty at all explaining exactly what had delayed his journey. But although the cops say he co-operated fully with them during that all-night interview at Corstorphine, we've never had anything remotely plausible.

I've actually explained my position on this to Darrell in some detail, enumerating all the ways an "innocent" Gilroy was stupendously unlucky in that he just happened to do something that was quite screamingly indicative of giult, time and time again. And of course that the biggie is the unexplained time. I've gone into some detail as to why the loss of that amount of time simply isn't plausible given the nature of the problem with the car. No response, really.
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Old 8th October 2019, 09:18 AM   #753
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I'm still chewing over our new discovery about the roadworks at Ardlui. I think the sign at the junction in Crianlarich is the important thing. I actually did that turn with Darrell in my car, to show to him how very definite a decision you have to make to take that road. (In fact there was a fair bit of traffic coming the other way and I had to wait with my right indicator flashing for a little while.) But I didn't realise he did that in the teeth of a big yellow sign saying road works at Ardlui, delays possible. And although it was just after sunset at that point there should have been easily enough light to see the sign.

It's likely he wasn't actually delayed by the road works. A lights-controlled one-way set-up like that is only going to cause a significant delay if the road is very busy and it's unlikely that was the case at that time on a weekday evening. It's perfectly possible to run through the section unimpeded, especially if the lights are controlled by a motion sensor which I think these were from the appearance on the Streetview image, If you're the only car on the road the lights just go green as you approach them and you drive on. It's also possible that the road works were cleared away for the evening and two-way traffic was operational.

But he couldn't have predicted that. He hadn't been up that road on the way out, so he had no way to know how extensive the road works were or how bad a delay might be. These yellow signs are a really really good reason for avoiding a route if at all possible, not suddenly deciding to go that way because you're in a hurry or the weather is bad.

So he had a very definite reason for going that way. A reason that was probably related to misleading or at least confusing the investigation. If the Rest and Be Thankful area is where he disposed of the body, I literally boggle as to what such a reason could possibly be.
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Old 9th October 2019, 02:48 AM   #754
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Post 747

"I think we have to assume that the Arch camera wasn't recording that day or something. I'm sure if it had been and he hadn't appeared on it at all, that would have been a point that would have come out. Sure you can go round the back of that one but if you did you'd miss the one in Main Street West too, so I think we can safely say he didn't."

bypass.jpg

He could have driven the green line route on the map and still arrived at the A83 whilst avoiding the Arch filling station then went east of Inveraray, messed about there, then returned to Inveraray and still passed the camera at Main street west at 15.51.

The green line route is used to avoid driving the red line route to avoid being captured on the camera at the Arch filling station.

Any photographic evidence is long gone (if there was any) but the police must have asked the staff at the Arch filling station for CCTV evidence and it would be good to know what the response was.

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Old 9th October 2019, 02:59 AM   #755
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Er, why would he do that?
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Old 14th October 2019, 02:04 AM   #756
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Thanks for listening Kali,
And thanks for continuing the debate on the case and ourbseries. I’ve been interested to read the discussion as to find out about the meeting you had with the SIO Rolfe.
I don’t intend to engage in a lengthy or continued debate on this forum, but there’s a couple of things I’d like to respond to from the recent posts.

Firstly - I’ve seen various references to our theory. We actually don’t form one theory on what happened, and without spoiling the end of the series, we don’t take any one side in our conclusion. We learned quite early on that the case was about measuring doubt - and in that sense it’s been fascinating to read comments here and elsewhere of people putting their own values on bits of the evidence or gaps where evidence should be.

There’s been a couple of references to our theory on things like the air freshener. On that point - we aired what David said about them and the type they were. We weren’t able to verify anything from the police side, but we do know there was none in the car when it was seized. But that some were seized from David’s house.

There a coment from someone that David ‘went on the drive west because he wanted to get away from The hullabaloo around Suzanne being missing. I’ve never heard that claim from anyone, or seen it written anywhere. His account was that he didn’t know there was any major search for her until the mid-point on his journey - and certainly the only police presence that morning was low-key. So I think that claim is a mis-attributed fabrication.

The journey west - you’re right Kali - we did struggle with it and still do. But I don’t actually see any logical explanation of where he did go in that time either. There’s a comment above which says the police are sure he was at the RABT - but I not recall any evidence being presented that showed that. All of the talk about different routes and tracks and knowing about cameras - my concern with all of it is that we’re applyingbsound thinking and judgement onto a situation where I doubt anyone would be at their most composed. So the time missing on the way there and the way back is actually a question that we keep coming back to.

I’d also like to clarify that we didn’t, at any stage, take David’s word for evidence. We checked it against what we could. And if it couldn’t be supported we made that clear in the series. So for things like the camera at the green welly - it’s a side view camera - so numberplate not visible. I don’t imagine the parcel shelf on tajtbwas visible either. I recall one image where it was seen on the back and used to help identify david’s car.
I’m unsure how the police could be certain the car wasn’t damaged prior to that journey - there’s no way to tell. The MOT wasn’t up to date. And the car was driving parts of the return journey at the expected speed. So there isn’t a sudden junior change in the performance, at least not outwardly. The image of david checking underneath is taken at the start of his journey west.

Perhaps the answer lies in the RABT, or maybe elsewhere. I hope one day there is some more concrete information to work from.

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Old 14th October 2019, 02:29 AM   #757
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Continuation from post 754/755

"Er, why would he do that?"

Gilroy passed the Green Welly Tyndrum at 13.23 and then the Royal Burgh Cafe Inveraray at 15.51.

What if Gilroy thought the Arch filling station would capture him on CCTV as he passed ?

A - If the Arch filling station camera had captured him passing at 13.58 (35 minutes after passing the Green Welly) then he has driven non-stop between the Green Welly and the Arch filling station. This indicates that the disposal site is somewhere off the A83 between the junction of the A819/A83 and the R&BT.

B - If the Arch filling station camera had captured him passing at 15.50 (one minute before passing the Royal Burgh cafe) then he has stopped for 112 minutes between the Green Welly Tyndrum and the Arch filling station. This indicates that the disposal site is somewhere between the junction of the A82/A85 at Tyndrum and the Arch filling station on the A819.

C - If the Arch filling station camera was working and pointing at the road and had not captured him passing at all that afternoon then he has bypassed the Arch filling station (as shown at post 754)

C leaves the police guessing where the disposal site is. Is it between the junction of the A819/A83 and the R&BT (option A) or between the junction of the A82/A85 at Tyndrum and the Arch filling station on the A819 (option B). Its got to be one or the other and again Gilroy leaves two options (either A or B) in the frame if he bypasses the Arch filling station camera.

A or B would give the police a clue and subsequently narrow the search area.

Gilroy wanted the police to think he took option B and passed the Arch filling station at 15.50 (as he said he was nowhere near the R&BT that afternoon) but if he was caught passing the Arch filling station at 13.58 (option A) then not only have the police confirmed he was lying they can now narrow the search to between the junction of the A819/A83 and the R&BT (he must have spent time there between 13.58 and 15.51 - why else would he make a bee line for the junction of the A819/A83)

If he was not too bothered about the risk of being caught on CCTV when he passed the Arch filling station (at either 13.58 or 15.50) then all of the above is irrelevant.

But its a big risk to assume he would not get caught passing the Arch filling station or assume the camera was not working, in my opinion.

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Old 14th October 2019, 05:37 AM   #758
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Originally Posted by Reporter1 View Post
Thanks for listening Kali,
And thanks for continuing the debate on the case and ourbseries.
Quite welcome. Overall it was well done and very interesting to listen to, but I did get the impression that in the end it was meant to give the impression of likely innocence. You didn't seem to press him much on the missing time. I suspect that may be because you feared he would shut down the interviews?

I think currently, unless she is located, the only way to get any answers would be to know what the police know as far as evidence is concerned. Rolfe, I am now delving into your PDF so thank you for making it, and keeping it available.
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Old 23rd October 2019, 08:45 AM   #759
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Sorry not to have replied sooner, I've been away.

Originally Posted by Reporter1 View Post
Thanks for listening Kali,
And thanks for continuing the debate on the case and ourbseries. I’ve been interested to read the discussion as to find out about the meeting you had with the SIO Rolfe.
I don’t intend to engage in a lengthy or continued debate on this forum, but there’s a couple of things I’d like to respond to from the recent posts.

Firstly - I’ve seen various references to our theory. We actually don’t form one theory on what happened, and without spoiling the end of the series, we don’t take any one side in our conclusion. We learned quite early on that the case was about measuring doubt - and in that sense it’s been fascinating to read comments here and elsewhere of people putting their own values on bits of the evidence or gaps where evidence should be.

I think some sort of alternative theory is necessary. Something happened to Suzanne Pilley and if it wasn't David Gilroy, what was it? There is a highly plausible case against Gilroy and if there isn't at least a possible alternative explanation that's a problem. If she actually entered the premises at 11 Thistle Street he is the only possibility. So the only available alternative scenario must be that she in some way or for some reason diverted from her intended course after buying her lunch in Sainsbury's (assuming you don't buy the later CCTV image) and the front door.

I have no reason to disbelieve the police when they say they looked into this possibility. This isn't a case like the Luke Mitchell one, where "the boyfriend" was relentlessly pursued as the only suspect from the word go. They couldn't identify anyone known to Suzanne who might have picked her up that morning. It's vanishingly unlikely she got into a car with someone she didn't know.

When considering possibilities of this nature Suzanne's own phone records are a very crucial consideration. Her phone was switched off manually while it was still in the neighbourhood of Thistle Street. It didn't ping another mast leaving the vicinity. If it was turned off by her attacker, how could that have happened, if she didn't enter the building? An attack in a car or on the street, in the middle of the city in the peak morning rush-hour period? If she turned it off herself, some explanation for that is surely required. Gets into car with unidentified acquaintance, immediately gets out her phone and switches it off? Suddenly decides to take an extra day off and heads back to Waverley or the bus stops, turning her phone off as she goes? I'm not buying this.

There is simply no evidence at all to support the proposition that Suzanne didn't enter the building. No mobile phone record, no other sighting of her, nobody else known to her with a pattern of suspicious or unexplained behaviour that day or the next.

Originally Posted by Reporter1 View Post
There’s been a couple of references to our theory on things like the air freshener. On that point - we aired what David said about them and the type they were. We weren’t able to verify anything from the police side, but we do know there was none in the car when it was seized. But that some were seized from David’s house.

I don't think the air freshener (or the charcoal) is a particularly important point. There was however the report from the examination of Gilroy's car that there was a "clean" or "fresh" smell coming from the boot, which was believed to have confused the cadaver dog. Now that could be a complete fabrication but it's interesting in context. I don't find myself particularly inclined to accept David Gilroy's version of this at face value. Perhaps some innocent toilet-bowl blocks were seized from his house, but I'm more interested in what he was discovered to have bought at lunchtime (I think it was) on 4th May.

Originally Posted by Reporter1 View Post
There a coment from someone that David ‘went on the drive west because he wanted to get away from The hullabaloo around Suzanne being missing. I’ve never heard that claim from anyone, or seen it written anywhere. His account was that he didn’t know there was any major search for her until the mid-point on his journey - and certainly the only police presence that morning was low-key. So I think that claim is a mis-attributed fabrication.

That was me and I thought I got it from you so if that's not the case then I picked you up wrongly. We can forget that aspect. This leaves us with no positive reason at all for Gilroy to have undertaken that drive to Lochgilphead in a car which he knew had a significant mechanical problem even before he left, according to his own account. The supposed errand at Lochgilphead was totally non-urgent and could easily have waited until after he'd had the car fixed. So why did he go?

The SIO said that Gilroy didn't leave IML until it was pretty common knowledge that there was serious concern about Suzanne and the police were involved ("low-key" isn't necessarily going to be reassuring to an actual murderer with a body still to dispose of). However, regardless of that, if he did have her body in the boot of his car then it would surely have been imperative to get rid of her sooner rather than later.

Originally Posted by Reporter1 View Post
The journey west - you’re right Kali - we did struggle with it and still do. But I don’t actually see any logical explanation of where he did go in that time either.

I don't think this is a fair equivalence. We don't know where he went in that time. He doesn't have anything approaching a coherent and reasonable explanation. We don't have to have a fully-formed narrative of what we think he did in order to draw a suspicious inference from this. There are a lot of possibilities, some more likely than others. And, as you note below, he wouldn't have been at his most composed so it's possible the true narrative isn't entirely logical. Just because we don't have something you consider to be "a logical explanation" of where he went (and forgive me but I think you're wilfully disregarding perfectly reasonable theories about where he went), doesn't make it legitimate to default back to the position where he really did lose three and a half hours quite innocently but is unable to tell us anything about how that happened.

I mean, look at what you say is his own version. Stopped by the roadside, on the way there for about two hours and on the way back for about an hour and a half, because of mechanical concerns about his car. There was nothing wrong that he could possibly have attempted to repair, and it wouldn't have taken long to ascertain that - indeed if he clocked under the car at Queensferry Road he already knew. Didn't go into any of the actual service stations he passed on the journey. (Doune Motors, Dreadnaught at Callander, Lix Toll, Green Welly, The Arch at Inveraray and there are two actual car repair shops in Lochgilphead itself, including one right beside the bloody school.) Didn't call the AA or the RAC. On the outward journey, didn't decide to turn back rather than press on even further from home with a malfunctioning car. What was the purpose of these long delays, when the car hadn't broken down and was still capable of being driven home or to a repair garage?

In what universe is this account even remotely plausible? It makes "the dog ate my homework" seem emininently believable. If he really does have an innocent explanation for that missing time, why is he insulting our intelligence with this rubbish?

Originally Posted by Reporter1 View Post
There’s a comment above which says the police are sure he was at the RABT - but I not recall any evidence being presented that showed that.

The SIO has a witness who saw someone somewhere in the R&BT region and who is convinced it was David Gilroy because the person he saw bore an uncanny resemblance to someone else he knew, and so does David Gilroy. The police also did a lot of tracing of silver cars seen in that area and have convinced themselves that in among all the other silver cars (including one belonging to a group of moss-collectors, who went up into the forest in some places) Gilroy's silver Vectra features.

I think they're wrong. It doesn't make a blind bit of sense that Gilroy would have done that, and it's way too common for police investigations to latch on to one witness or one theory and then do a whole lot of confirmation bias to convince themselves they're on the right track. But if I'm right about this, that still doesn't default to Gilroy's own dog-ate-my-homework story. It just moves the search area further north.

Originally Posted by Reporter1 View Post
All of the talk about different routes and tracks and knowing about cameras - my concern with all of it is that we’re applying sound thinking and judgement onto a situation where I doubt anyone would be at their most composed. So the time missing on the way there and the way back is actually a question that we keep coming back to.

And should continue to come back to. I agree with you about overthinking this and I think the police are doing that and I think we are also sometimes guilty of the same thing. I don't think he took any weird diversions to avoid CCTV cameras he almost certainly didn't know about anyway.

Originally Posted by Reporter1 View Post
I’d also like to clarify that we didn’t, at any stage, take David’s word for evidence. We checked it against what we could. And if it couldn’t be supported we made that clear in the series. So for things like the camera at the green welly - it’s a side view camera - so numberplate not visible. I don’t imagine the parcel shelf on that was visible either. I recall one image where it was seen on the back and used to help identify david’s car.

The police said there was a red umbrella on the parcel shelf of the car which could be seen on the Green Welly CCTV image. I find it difficult to imagine they made this up.

However, what good is this point anyway? Nobody is disputing that he drove through Tyndrum. The CCTV image only gives us the time. Given the time he left Edinburgh he really couldn't have got there more than about 15 minutes earlier than the police time. What does that permit? It only makes the missing time period 15 minutes longer. Given his arrival time at Lochgilphead he had to have passed through Tyndrum by around quarter past three at the latest. If it was as late at that, what would that mean? It would extend the search area to include Strathyre and all the other lovely places on that stretch of the road, that's all.

No matter where the missing time was, it exists. He left Edinburgh shortly after eleven and he didn't get to Lochgilphead until nearly half past four. There is no dispute and apparently no reasonable doubt that he drove there via Callander, Crianlarich and Tyndrum. He should have been in Lochgilphead by half past two if he'd driven there without stopping. All the CCTV images tell us is the part of the journey where the missing time happened. Throwing these into dispute isn't exculpatory in the slightest, all it does is suggest that we ought to be thinking about Strathyre and Glen Ogle and so on rather than Glen Orchy.

Originally Posted by Reporter1 View Post
I’m unsure how the police could be certain the car wasn’t damaged prior to that journey - there’s no way to tell. The MOT wasn’t up to date. And the car was driving parts of the return journey at the expected speed. So there isn’t a sudden junior change in the performance, at least not outwardly. The image of david checking underneath is taken at the start of his journey west.

I'm not sure about that either except that the police downloaded everything from the car's computer and interrogated it, so there might be information in that. If the car was damaged before he set off, though, how does that help his case? It simply suggests that he was so desperate to get into Argyll that day that he was prepared to embark on the journey even though he knew his car had a significant mechanical problem. (And possibly extends the search area to include locations that don't require driving on rough forestry tracks.)

Originally Posted by Reporter1 View Post
Perhaps the answer lies in the RABT, or maybe elsewhere. I hope one day there is some more concrete information to work from.

I don't think the answer lies in the Arrochar Alps. If the police theory is correct, that he didn't bury her but spent perhaps as little as 20 minutes (in the middle of all that bizarre driving around) dumping the body, they should have found her. Where that leaves us is anyone's guess.

Make a case for reasonable doubt if you like, but even if you do think the amount of doubt available crosses the "reasonable" threshhold, it still leaves Gilroy guilty on a very strong balance of probability. Since none of us here is on the jury, or on the SCCRC, where does that leave the argument? In the same place it was. Still looking for the body somewhere in Argyll and still disinclined to campaign in favour of someone who very probably committed the crime he was convicted of, certainly as far as I'm concerned.
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Last edited by Rolfe; 23rd October 2019 at 10:07 AM.
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Old 23rd October 2019, 09:55 AM   #760
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Originally Posted by NightOfTheDemon View Post
"Er, why would he do that?"

Gilroy passed the Green Welly Tyndrum at 13.23 and then the Royal Burgh Cafe Inveraray at 15.51.

What if Gilroy thought the Arch filling station would capture him on CCTV as he passed ?

A - If the Arch filling station camera had captured him passing at 13.58 (35 minutes after passing the Green Welly) then he has driven non-stop between the Green Welly and the Arch filling station. This indicates that the disposal site is somewhere off the A83 between the junction of the A819/A83 and the R&BT.

B - If the Arch filling station camera had captured him passing at 15.50 (one minute before passing the Royal Burgh cafe) then he has stopped for 112 minutes between the Green Welly Tyndrum and the Arch filling station. This indicates that the disposal site is somewhere between the junction of the A82/A85 at Tyndrum and the Arch filling station on the A819.

C - If the Arch filling station camera was working and pointing at the road and had not captured him passing at all that afternoon then he has bypassed the Arch filling station (as shown at post 754)

C leaves the police guessing where the disposal site is. Is it between the junction of the A819/A83 and the R&BT (option A) or between the junction of the A82/A85 at Tyndrum and the Arch filling station on the A819 (option B). Its got to be one or the other and again Gilroy leaves two options (either A or B) in the frame if he bypasses the Arch filling station camera.

A or B would give the police a clue and subsequently narrow the search area.

Gilroy wanted the police to think he took option B and passed the Arch filling station at 15.50 (as he said he was nowhere near the R&BT that afternoon) but if he was caught passing the Arch filling station at 13.58 (option A) then not only have the police confirmed he was lying they can now narrow the search to between the junction of the A819/A83 and the R&BT (he must have spent time there between 13.58 and 15.51 - why else would he make a bee line for the junction of the A819/A83)

If he was not too bothered about the risk of being caught on CCTV when he passed the Arch filling station (at either 13.58 or 15.50) then all of the above is irrelevant.

But its a big risk to assume he would not get caught passing the Arch filling station or assume the camera was not working, in my opinion.

I just don't buy any of this, any more than I buy the police idea that he drove up to 100 miles further than he needed to, just to avoid a camera at Arrochar which he unaccountably knew about.

I think if he had CCTV cameras on his mind at all, he'd have realised that even if he knew about one or two of them, he had no way of knowing how many others were out there, or where. Now I accept that he might not have been behaving 100% rationally but he did pretty well all things considered and if he was thinking rationally about CCTV cameras - including the ones he didn't know about - then the logical course of action is not to go in for extensive detours.

Think about it. If all the sightings of his car are on a reasonable route between Edinburgh and Lochgilphead, whichever route that is, the only incriminating factor is going to be the lost time. He can (as he is doing) stick to a claim that he simply stopped en route. That's probably the best he's going to be able to achieve. If on the other hand he drives scores of miles out of his way, and he happens to be caught on a CCTV whose presence he is unaware of, that's going to be a lot more difficult to explain.

"Mr Gilroy, you took two and a half hours to cover a stretch of road which should have taken you less than 40 minutes to negotiate. What were you doing?"
"Oh, I was worried about my car and stopped by the side of the road to have a look."

It's not great, as I discussed above, but it's at least a holding pattern. Alternatlvely.

"Mr Gilroy, your car was caught at Tyndrum at 13.22 and then at the Rest and Be Thankful at 14.25 going east and again at 15.25 going west, how do explain that detour?"
"......."

It's a lot harder, isn't it.

There wasn't any sort of camera at the Rest and Be Thankful in May 2010, but how could he have known there wasn't? There's a Traffic Scotland one there now, which has been there since 2011. OK, these cameras don't make a continuous record of passing traffic, but again, did he know that?

If David Gilroy was some sort of expert in the CCTV cameras of the centre and west of Scotland, maybe he could have plotted an intelligent route to mislead the police. But I don't know of any evidence that he was, and it's not information you can get hold of at 24 hours notice. If he was at all aware of the risk of being caught on cameras like that, his best move would be to avoid any lengthy detours on trunk roads where he might be caught embarrassingly far from his rational route, and rather to get off his route by as minor a road as he could and try not to be seen until he was back on it.

If he did double back into the Arrochar Alps then I think it was because he wasn't thinking about possible CCTV capture, in which case there's no reason to have avoided passing through Arrochar. But what reason did he have for doing that at all? He didn't leave a phone-mast trail to show he had driven the A84/A84 route and he certainly couldn't have relied on being picked up at the Green Welly CCTV.

Sure, it seems to be possible to circumvent the camera at The Arch. But why bother? All that would do would extend the potential search area down to Lochgilphead. Unless of course he was caught by something driving down Inveraray Main Street. Which he was. Another road that can be circumvented, but he didn't circumvent that.

As Darrell said, it's possible to over-think this. The only real detour we know he took is the one down Loch Lomondside in the evening. I'm deeply interested in that. But I don't believe in the R&BT evidence (sorry, cops) and I don't believe he was driving huge distances to evade CCTV cameras he couldn't even have known about. I don't think he was doing anything tricksy apart from the A82 diversion in the evening, once everything else was done and dusted.

Which means I don't believe in the extra 124 miles either. But there are all sorts of reasons that needn't have and didn't happen.


ETA: Another argument against him thinking about avoiding CCTV cameras is the red umbrella. If you know anything about these things you know that they don't always catch the number plate. One of the first things you'd do if you were concerned about being identified on such an image is make sure your car looks as bland and anonymous as possible. Like no red umbrellas on the parcel shelf.
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Last edited by Rolfe; 23rd October 2019 at 10:19 AM.
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