Rumour - Turkey about to invade Syrian Kurds

Garrison said:
The Kurds are forced from their homes, the Turks get everything they wanted, even now the ability to use all those IS prisoners as leverage for future US concessions, and Russian power in the region is enhanced. The US in the meanwhile gains...?
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Another Trump Tower in Turkey.....
 
Garrison said:
Oh knock it off, there was a stable situation until your god-king Donald decided to destabilize it and the only people gaining are Erdogan and Putin. Trump cost the US influence and trust and pushed one of the USA's few reliable allies in the Middle East into the arms of Assad with a policy he enacted without consulting his own military. If you can name one thing the US gained from this move go right ahead and point it out.
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If a Democrat had done what Trump did, , Ziggy would be screaming his head off .
But I guess aiding and abetting ethnic cleansing is fine in Ziggy's book. After all Dear Leader is incapable of error.
 
Statements from trump in his presser

We've secured the oil and, therefore, a small number of US Troops will remain in the area. Where they have the oil. And we're going to be protecting it, and we'll be deciding what we're going to do with it in the future.
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Eight long years after President Obama's ill-fated push at regime change, U.S. troops are still on the ground in Syria. More than half a million people are dead, hundreds of thousands are terribly injured, and millions more Syrians are displaced.
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Now people are saying, Wow. What a great outcome. Congratulations.
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Garrison said:
Oh knock it off, there was a stable situation until your god-king Donald decided to destabilize it
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No there wasn't. There was an occupation by Kurdish forces due to a heroic fight they did with the US coming in at the very last second against ISIS which wouldn't have existed in the first place without the US bolstering Turkish moves. The last time this unstable sutuation was about to break up was late 2018, when I said this about it. This time it worked and what is apparently growing out of it is not a zero sum, it is a win for all, and Trump has to get some credit for playing along nicely on a plot that of course was thought out in Moscow, where they still are capable of strategic thinking based on a true understanding of the world.
 
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Garrison said:
Oh knock it off, there was a stable situation until your god-king Donald decided to destabilize it
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The situation was not stable.

and the only people gaining are Erdogan and Putin.
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Perhaps. I'm open to arguments that this was a mistake. But again, what were the US goals here? What strategy were we supposed to be pursuing to reach those goals? I can't get a straight answer from anyone. And now you're blaming me for even asking. Yeah, no. I don't accept the answer that this was a mistake without any coherent explanation of what we should be doing and why.
 
Garrison said:
Oh knock it off, there was a stable situation until your god-king Donald decided to destabilize it and the only people gaining are Erdogan and Putin. Trump cost the US influence and trust and pushed one of the USA's few reliable allies in the Middle East into the arms of Assad with a policy he enacted without consulting his own military. If you can name one thing the US gained from this move go right ahead and point it out.
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Not so! Assad and his sponsors in Iran are also big winners. Trump, meanwhile, is a big wiener.
 
Trump Tweets

The Oil Fields discussed in my speech on Turkey/Kurds yesterday were held by ISIS until the United States took them over with the help of the Kurds. We will NEVER let a reconstituted ISIS have those fields!

I really enjoyed my conversation with General
@MazloumAbdi
. He appreciates what we have done, and I appreciate what the Kurds have done. Perhaps it is time for the Kurds to start heading to the Oil Region!
 
Of course the oil fields belong to the Syrian people of which the Kurds who have recently controlled them (with sour agreement of the local Arab tribes who always have and always will control them in the final picture) are a part, and the government under Dr. Bashar al-Assad is the legitimate entity representing the Syrian people. Those oil fields are tiny compared to what almost all the neighbours have, so it is something to cheaply brag about by someone like Trump from the other end of the world. For domestic consumption by people who don't have a clue about what's going on.
 
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Belz... said:
New Art of the Deal, people. No need to gain anything; just give them everything they want.

Peace in our time.
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That still doesn't answer my question. What should we have tried to gain? Or do you just have a feeling it should have been something, despite not knowing what?
 
Childlike Empress said:
the government under Dr. Bashar al-Assad is the legitimate entity representing the Syrian people.
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There's nothing legitimate about Assad.

But unless we're willing to topple him ourselves (and we aren't), then he's going to be in charge of most of Syria regardless of legitimacy.
 
Ziggurat said:
There's nothing legitimate about Assad.

But unless we're willing to topple him ourselves (and we aren't), then he's going to be in charge of most of Syria regardless of legitimacy.
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He got elected with a much higher margin and continues to have much more popular support than this "we" (presumably the US government) does. If anything's illegitimate it seems to be "you" (though it depends on who exactly this "we" is).
 
Ziggurat said:
There's nothing legitimate about Assad.

But unless we're willing to topple him ourselves (and we aren't), then he's going to be in charge of most of Syria regardless of legitimacy.
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The "we" you are talking about has zero legitimate say in what is going on in Syria. Dr. Assad would not have survived the by now proverbial "Assad must go" curse that includes scoundrels as ancient as Nicolas Sarkozy if he wouldn't have the support of the general public against the Jihadi hordes created by in no small amount Obama and Killary, and in an even greater sense RT Erdogan. And that general public is what has the sole voice on Syria's political system as you should agree with if there is anything to the principles you are broadcasting on this forum.
 
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Caspian Report is one of my favourite Youtube channels about Geopolitics.

Here's their take on Turkey's endgame in Syria:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_0JEP15Zifk

-Push back PKK and affiliates
-Play peacemaker
-Dump Syrian refugees back over the border
-Diffuse anti-immigrant sentiments that are hurting Erdogan's election results
-Stimulate the economy by having Turkish companies build housing and other infrastructure in Syria

I may have missed some points.
 
Eddie Dane said:
Caspian Report is one of my favourite Youtube channels about Geopolitics.

Here's their take on Turkey's endgame in Syria:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_0JEP15Zifk

-Push back PKK and affiliates
-Play peacemaker
-Dump Syrian refugees back over the border
-Diffuse anti-immigrant sentiments that are hurting Erdogan's election results
-Stimulate the economy by having Turkish companies build housing and other infrastructure in Syria

I may have missed some points.
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Something like that is probably what I would do if I were in charge of Turkey.
 
kellyb said:
Something like that is probably what I would do if I were in charge of Turkey.
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I don't like Erdogan but I have to say; He takes inventory of a situation, plans his preferred outcomes and acts boldly.

Up to now, he has managed to destroy the old order, weaken institutions that limit him, engineered a (now half-collapsed) economic miracle, set up a fake coup to expose his opponents, attempted to get rid of Assad (I still don't understand why), when that didn't work he did a complete heel-turn and now wants Assad to deliver regional stability.

He's straight out of Machiavelli's 'The Prince'.

EDIT: why did he want Assad gone? is this some sort of Sunni-Shia thing?
 
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Eddie Dane said:
I don't like Erdogan but I have to say; He takes inventory of a situation, plans his preferred outcomes and acts boldly.

Up to now, he has managed to destroy the old order, weaken institutions that limit him, engineered a (now half-collapsed) economic miracle, set up a fake coup to expose his opponents, attempted to get rid of Assad (I still don't understand why), when that didn't work he did a complete heel-turn and now wants Assad to deliver regional stability.

He's straight out of Machiavelli's 'The Prince'.

EDIT: why did he want Assad gone? is this some sort of Sunni-Shia thing?
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Did he want Assad out, or did he just go along with the US effort?
 
Turkey was instrumental in the destruction of Libya and apparently Erdogan thought that it would be as easy to unseat his old buddy Assad as it was to impale Gaddafi, so he kind of just went along with the Empire's scheme. Some say there's a personal envy involved as his wife looks like this:

Emine_Erdo%C4%9Fan.jpg


while Assad's wife looks like that:

Asma_Al-Assad_in_2008.jpg
 
Childlike Empress said:
Turkey was instrumental in the destruction of Libya and apparently Erdogan thought that it would be as easy to unseat his old buddy Assad as it was to impale Gaddafi, so he kind of just went along with the Empire's scheme. Some say there's a personal envy involved as his wife looks like this:

[qimg]https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/cf/Emine_Erdo%C4%9Fan.jpg[/qimg]

while Assad's wife looks like that:

[qimg]https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/ac/Asma_Al-Assad_in_2008.jpg[/qimg]
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How many lives could have been saved if Eleanor Roosevelt had been half as hot as Eva Braun?
 
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Eddie Dane said:
I don't like Erdogan but I have to say; He takes inventory of a situation, plans his preferred outcomes and acts boldly.

Up to now, he has managed to destroy the old order, weaken institutions that limit him, engineered a (now half-collapsed) economic miracle, set up a fake coup to expose his opponents, attempted to get rid of Assad (I still don't understand why), when that didn't work he did a complete heel-turn and now wants Assad to deliver regional stability.

He's straight out of Machiavelli's 'The Prince'.

EDIT: why did he want Assad gone? is this some sort of Sunni-Shia thing?
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SO did Adolf Hitler.
Sorry, but this is where cynicism becomes nihilism.
 
The Great Zaganza said:
geopolitics - leaving Syria to Turkey, Iran and Russia will destabilize the Middle East further.
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Israel is getting nervous, very nervous.
about the situation in Syria and with damn good reason. Iran on the borders of Israel is not a good thing.
And they are now relizing that Donnie will throw Israel under the bus in a heartbeat if it serves his interests.
Yes, there is the evangelical support of Isreal, but Ihave but that Donnie probably thinks the fundies love him more then Israel.
 
And don't forget that the evangelical support you mentioned is based solely on a war to bring on the End Times. They actively want Israel to be at war for its existence. If a couple million Jews get killed they couldn't care less.
 
Trebuchet said:
And don't forget that the evangelical support you mentioned is based solely on a war to bring on the End Times. They actively want Israel to be at war for its existence. If a couple million Jews get killed they couldn't care less.
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Not true!
3/4s of all Israeli must die so that the rest will convert to Christianity ...
 
dudalb said:
Israel is getting nervous, very nervous.
about the situation in Syria and with damn good reason. Iran on the borders of Israel is not a good thing.
And they are now relizing that Donnie will throw Israel under the bus in a heartbeat if it serves his interests.
Yes, there is the evangelical support of Isreal, but Ihave but that Donnie probably thinks the fundies love him more then Israel.
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Donnie probably had a phonecall with Erdolf and accepted his perspective of the situation. Then decided on the spot to pull out and everybody found out via Twitter.

Donnie may not have realised the implications for Israel.

I'm genuinely starting to think Trump is no longer capable of abstract or strategic thinking and just wings it in conversations and press conferences.
 
Trebuchet said:
And don't forget that the evangelical support you mentioned is based solely on a war to bring on the End Times. They actively want Israel to be at war for its existence. If a couple million Jews get killed they couldn't care less.
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That's really not how they think about it.

They do predict apocalypse and war in/against Israel, but they feel like that's Satan's doing and that it's their job to fight Satan by defending Israel.

They ARE fine with the Earth being trashed, though, seeing as how once Jesus comes back there will be a new, redeemed earth. But they (the real True Believers) actually don't apply that convoluted logic to Israelis and Israel.
 
dudalb said:
And they are now relizing that Donnie will throw Israel under the bus in a heartbeat if it serves his interests.
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I'm having a hard time envisioning what "throwing Israel under the bus" would mean/look like.

Letting Iran develop a nuke?
 
kellyb said:
That's really not how they think about it.

They do predict apocalypse and war in/against Israel, but they feel like that's Satan's doing and that it's their job to fight Satan by defending Israel.

They ARE fine with the Earth being trashed, though, seeing as how once Jesus comes back there will be a new, redeemed earth. But they (the real True Believers) actually don't apply that convoluted logic to Israelis and Israel.
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There won't be any Jews because when he comes back everyone will be so awestruck that they'll all become Christians.

...

It worked so well the first time.
 
Trebuchet said:
Seriously, that just occurred to you?
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No, I thought it was 4D chess.:rolleyes:

I think he has some form of dementia.

In addition to that he has fired everybody who isn’t some kind of yes man.

So both these things started off bad and are still deteriorating.
 
https://thehill.com/briefingroom-bl...ted-us-military-presence-in-syrian-oil-fields
The Russian government on Saturday criticized the U.S. for bolstering military resources in eastern Syria, calling the move an “act of international state banditry,” Rueters reports.

The increased military presence in the area comes after U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper said on Friday that Washington would send more troops and vehicles into the area to secure the local oil fields. The increased protection would reportedly ensure that fields were not overtaken by Islamic State (ISIS) insurgents.

Reuters reports that in a statement released by Russia, the country claimed that the U.S. had no international legal jurisdiction to increase military presence around the oil fields. The statement went on to say that there was no real security threat in the area.

“Therefore Washington’s current actions - capturing and maintaining military control over oil fields in eastern Syria - is, simply put, international state banditry,” the statement reads.

The document went on to state that U.S. troops are “protecting oil smugglers that make more than $30 million a month,” Rueters reports.
The international squabble comes after President Trump pulled 1,000 troops out of the Turkey/Syria border earlier this month amid a Turkish offensive against Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish military faction.
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https://twitter.com/Nick_L_Miller/status/1188098339637776384
Nicholas Miller
@Nick_L_Miller
Trump has been obsessed with seizing oil fields in the Middle East for years, as this tweet from 2012 shows.

He's more of a mercantilist than an isolationist.


Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
· Mar 16, 2012
We should have gotten more of the oil in Syria, and we should have gotten more of the oil in Iraq. Dumb leaders.
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...131f1a-f723-11e9-829d-87b12c2f85dd_story.html

Trump decided to leave troops in Syria after conversations about oil, officials say
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President Trump was persuaded to leave at least several hundred troops behind in Syria only when he was told that his decision to pull them out would risk control of oil fields in the country’s east, according to U.S. officials.

Trump had rejected arguments that withdrawing U.S. forces would benefit American adversaries, while endangering civilians and Kurdish allies, but he tweeted Thursday that “we will NEVER let a reconstituted ISIS have those fields.”

Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper confirmed on Friday that troops would remain in eastern Syria to prevent the oil fields from being retaken by the Islamic State.
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kellyb said:
https://thehill.com/briefingroom-bl...ted-us-military-presence-in-syrian-oil-fields

https://twitter.com/Nick_L_Miller/status/1188098339637776384


https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...131f1a-f723-11e9-829d-87b12c2f85dd_story.html
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I'm not following the criticism here. The SDF (our Kurdish 'allies') control the oil in that area. It is the US restrictions that made them smugglers as they sell much of the oil to Assad - allied with Russia. The Kurds there wanted to normalize commerce to the rest of Syria, against US wishes.

So what is the alternative here? Better to leave or stay?
 
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