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Old 13th February 2020, 02:34 AM   #1001
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Originally Posted by novaphile View Post
Meanwhile, something very odd is going on here in South Australia...

The Health Minister is refusing to say how many people have been exposed, how many people are in hospital, and how many are in quarantine elsewhere.

Just watched the TV news and he said, "I don't have any of that information, I haven't requested any of that information" and "that information is irrelevant."

It just looked really, really, odd.
(Especially for the Health Minister.)
That is indeed an odd position for someone whose job it is know these things.

It may be hard to know exactly how many people have been exposed, but the other ones seem like numbers that ought to be readily available.
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Old 13th February 2020, 03:39 AM   #1002
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
248 deaths and 15,000 new cases yesterday?

I'm hoping there's a problem in the numbers, because if they're right, things are grim indeed.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Posted BBC link, but you already did it in a later post so took it off again.

Last edited by Captain_Swoop; 13th February 2020 at 03:41 AM.
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Old 13th February 2020, 03:50 AM   #1003
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-and-new-cases

I'm guessing that will put a damper on future transparency about numbers.
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Old 13th February 2020, 04:21 AM   #1004
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Originally Posted by sphenisc View Post
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-and-new-cases

I'm guessing that will put a damper on future transparency about numbers.
Not really. As long as it's China speaking, we won't hear the truth. The whole concept is just beyond them.
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Old 13th February 2020, 04:47 AM   #1005
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Japanese news is reporting that an 80-year-old woman in Kanagawa has died from coronavirus.
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Old 13th February 2020, 08:30 AM   #1006
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Originally Posted by sphenisc View Post
That's from 10am CET yesterday. Things have moved on apace since then...
So it seems. The sitreps from WHO are usually posted around 1:00 est, but based on data gathered hours before. In this case, it made a big difference.
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Old 13th February 2020, 10:25 AM   #1007
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9th UK case

Quote:
Meanwhile, officials are tracing the contacts of the ninth person in the UK to test positive for the virus.
The woman went to hospital in an Uber, but Public Health England said the driver is not at "high risk".
The new case - announced on Wednesday evening - is the first to be identified in London after she contracted the virus in China.
She "self-presented" at the A&E department of University Hospital Lewisham on Sunday 9 February, hospital chief executive Ben Travis said.
She arrived in an Uber, but Public Health England said the driver is "not considered high risk" because the journey was less than 15 minutes and there was not "close sustained contact".
Uber said it had temporarily suspended the driver's account "out of an abundance of caution".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51486131
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Old 13th February 2020, 11:18 AM   #1008
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So has anyone actually been confirmed to have it and then got better and was released? I realize its pretty new and perhaps could just kill them later, but I mean, do we know for sure it doesnt kill everyone who gets it?
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Old 13th February 2020, 11:59 AM   #1009
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
Not really. As long as it's China speaking, we won't hear the truth. The whole concept is just beyond them.
Wow, an authoritarian dictatorship lies a lot. Who would have thunk it?
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Old 13th February 2020, 12:13 PM   #1010
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Originally Posted by angrysoba View Post
Japanese news is reporting that an 80-year-old woman in Kanagawa has died from coronavirus.
That's the most interesting case so far.

The woman hasn't been anywhere near China, nor has anyone she knows. Her son-in-law is a taxi driver, though. Notably, she was diagnosed with pneumonia on 1st February, so she's obviously caught the disease 7-21 days earlier, meaning she became infected at least three weeks ago, and most likely a whole month ago. You don't develop the pneumonia immediately.

Another case reported from Japan is that of some bloke in his 20s who hasn't been to China.

That's all highly encouraging news, because while it means the virus is spreading, it's not causing the massive number of deaths seen in China.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/1...-from-outbreak

Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
So has anyone actually been confirmed to have it and then got better and was released? I realize its pretty new and perhaps could just kill them later, but I mean, do we know for sure it doesnt kill everyone who gets it?
Yes, there are definitely several cases of the disease going away by itself, most notably the Pommy bloke who brought it from Singapore and infected the family at his chalet.

He wasn't very sick with it, is now completely free of the disease and is at home.

There are lots of other examples.
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Taking all of the current evidence into account, it seems to me that either the virus has lost its virulence, or the numbers were skewed by only the severe cases being discovered early on. That's fairly common and happened with H1N1 Mexican 'flu.

I think it's going to be very much like that pandemic - not as bad as seasonal influenza, but due to nobody being immune, it will harvest a toll of oldies, sickies and random other people, because most people will get it.

Health services are likely to be overwhelmed by the volume, but not to the extent that the systems will break entirely. Some people will die as a result of that pressure, and I'm going to stick with my initial prediction that the final death toll will be around 3,000,000.

I think the final mortality rate will look a lot like the H1N1 at about 0.05% overall - about half seasonal 'flu. Based on 70% of the population getting it, I
get 2.66 million deaths and have thrown in a few more to account for weak health systems in many countries.

If you're not chronically ill, or over 75, you will almost certainly survive it.
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Old 13th February 2020, 12:23 PM   #1011
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
The whole concept is just beyond them.
Shall we start a new thread on that subject, because it's getting a touch off topic here, and I believe that sentence applies to all politicians, not just totalitarian ones.
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Old 13th February 2020, 12:33 PM   #1012
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
Shall we start a new thread on that subject, because it's getting a touch off topic here, and I believe that sentence applies to all politicians, not just totalitarian ones.
It's not so much that politicians lie, but that totalitarian regimes tend to aggressively oppose transparency as a fundamental policy of government. To a much greater degree than other systems.

Yes, Australian politicians can and do hide things. But the Chinese government is in a whole other league. And I think the reliability of the Chinese government's reporting on this issue is a central part of the topic, and should remain part of the thread.
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Old 13th February 2020, 12:38 PM   #1013
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
...Taking all of the current evidence into account, it seems to me that either the virus has lost its virulence, or the numbers were skewed by only the severe cases being discovered early on.
We know it is your second option there. I posted about it up thread. And no, viruses simply do not lose their virulence this fast and in this pattern.

Quote:
I think it's going to be very much like that pandemic - not as bad as seasonal influenza, but due to nobody being immune, it will harvest a toll of oldies, sickies and random other people, because most people will get it.

Health services are likely to be overwhelmed by the volume, but not to the extent that the systems will break entirely. Some people will die as a result of that pressure, and I'm going to stick with my initial prediction that the final death toll will be around 3,000,000.

I think the final mortality rate will look a lot like the H1N1 at about 0.05% overall - about half seasonal 'flu. ...[snipped numbers]

If you're not chronically ill, or over 75, you will almost certainly survive it.
Care to apologize for making fun of me for saying something similar?
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Old 13th February 2020, 01:23 PM   #1014
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And the economic damage the virus might do is beginning to hit home: Disney is going to take a 200 Million hit from what is happening to it's Asia/Pacific based Theme Parks/Resorts: The ones in China closed, and drastic drops in attending on those in Asia outside of China.
And this is just a drop in the bucket of how much economic damage this will do.
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Old 13th February 2020, 03:10 PM   #1015
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Originally Posted by The Atheist View Post
If you're not chronically ill, or over 75, you will almost certainly survive it.
I follow all the logic in your posts but if the above is the case why did that thirty-something doctor in China die from it? One would assume he was perfectly healthy?
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Old 13th February 2020, 03:26 PM   #1016
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Originally Posted by Stee View Post
I follow all the logic in your posts but if the above is the case why did that thirty-something doctor in China die from it? One would assume he was perfectly healthy?
He was also enemy of the state.
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Old 13th February 2020, 03:33 PM   #1017
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Originally Posted by Stee View Post
I follow all the logic in your posts but if the above is the case why did that thirty-something doctor in China die from it? One would assume he was perfectly healthy?
He was a smoker maybe? I would suggest that smokers would also be vulnerable. We also do not know his other health conditions. So your assumption may not be valid.

If you are a heavy smoker I suggest there is a gun held to your head. Give up now or die from this virus. That would put a significant % of the Chinese population at risk. The rest of the non smoking world is reasonably safe.
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Old 13th February 2020, 03:40 PM   #1018
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Originally Posted by Stee View Post
I follow all the logic in your posts but if the above is the case why did that thirty-something doctor in China die from it? One would assume he was perfectly healthy?
He could have any number of chronic conditions. Do you have any evidence that he was "perfectly healthy"?

Also, these are general predictions. It's never absolute. There will be young healthy people dying, just not a large percentage of the whole.
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Old 13th February 2020, 03:43 PM   #1019
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It may also change in different environment.
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Old 13th February 2020, 03:55 PM   #1020
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
We know it is your second option there. I posted about it up thread. And no, viruses simply do not lose their virulence this fast and in this pattern.

Care to apologize for making fun of me for saying something similar?
Yeah, I agree with the second option, also because there have obviously been very mild cases early on. I did mention that way back when I was using the factor of 100, which I think will be right - there will be 100 or so

Your statement about influenza being "thousands of times worse" is still woefully incorrect, so no apology.

Originally Posted by Stee View Post
I follow all the logic in your posts but if the above is the case why did that thirty-something doctor in China die from it? One would assume he was perfectly healthy?
That's why I used the example of H1N1. Among the few oldies who croaked, there were several tragic cases reported just in NZ, of perfectly healthy - and in a couple of cases, extremely healthy - people who died from it.
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Old 13th February 2020, 04:07 PM   #1021
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Originally Posted by Dr.Sid View Post
It may also change in different environment.
That's what's so cool - and terrifying - about viruses. You cannot predict with any accuracy what they will do. H1N1 is a great example, and I hope I'm right in analogising the two, because that was going to be Spanish 'Flu 2.0 and wasn't. This looked briefly like SARS 2.0 but isn't.

It's also why the world should still treat Covid-19 seriously - the little bastard could mutate and become deadly tomorrow. Again, as I mentioned way back, the more people infected, the greater the chances of a mutation.

It also highlights why people need to learn to deal with animals in a way that doesn't encourage cross-infection. We might not be so lucky next time.
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Old 13th February 2020, 04:56 PM   #1022
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Originally Posted by novaphile View Post
Meanwhile, something very odd is going on here in South Australia...



The Health Minister is refusing to say how many people have been exposed, how many people are in hospital, and how many are in quarantine elsewhere.



Just watched the TV news and he said, "I don't have any of that information, I haven't requested any of that information" and "that information is irrelevant."



It just looked really, really, odd.

(Especially for the Health Minister.)
If the Chinese did that we would be criticising them.
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Old 13th February 2020, 05:00 PM   #1023
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Everyone's immune system is different. It's just like any other disease. The odds are that the weaker people are more likely to die and the stronger are more likely to survive.
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Old 13th February 2020, 08:20 PM   #1024
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Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
So has anyone actually been confirmed to have it and then got better and was released? I realize its pretty new and perhaps could just kill them later, but I mean, do we know for sure it doesnt kill everyone who gets it?
So far 7,080 people have recovered.
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Old 13th February 2020, 08:28 PM   #1025
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Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
So has anyone actually been confirmed to have it and then got better and was released? I realize its pretty new and perhaps could just kill them later, but I mean, do we know for sure it doesnt kill everyone who gets it?
It's very hard to say at this stage, but there are a few estimates that put the mortality rate at around 3%-4%. In other words, between 96% and 97% of people who are infected recover.
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Old 13th February 2020, 09:21 PM   #1026
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Originally Posted by pipelineaudio View Post
So has anyone actually been confirmed to have it and then got better and was released? I realize its pretty new and perhaps could just kill them later, but I mean, do we know for sure it doesnt kill everyone who gets it?
Originally Posted by arthwollipot View Post
It's very hard to say at this stage, but there are a few estimates that put the mortality rate at around 3%-4%. In other words, between 96% and 97% of people who are infected recover.
The major problem with these figures (mentioned in Arthwollipot's link) is that the number of people who have been infected, during an outbreak, is unknown. A number of people will get infected and recover and they are not counted in any figures as they did not seek medical treatment and if they did the doctor did not count them as having the virus. One option is to say that a certain % of the population died from the virus. I have often seen this when reading about the black death. One small problem with this is that maybe no one died (400 population) from the virus on Lord Howe Island. This may be because they stopped all flights to the Island, rather than the Island being made of super people.
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Old 13th February 2020, 09:31 PM   #1027
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
The major problem with these figures (mentioned in Arthwollipot's link) is that the number of people who have been infected, during an outbreak, is unknown. A number of people will get infected and recover and they are not counted in any figures as they did not seek medical treatment and if they did the doctor did not count them as having the virus. One option is to say that a certain % of the population died from the virus. I have often seen this when reading about the black death. One small problem with this is that maybe no one died (400 population) from the virus on Lord Howe Island. This may be because they stopped all flights to the Island, rather than the Island being made of super people.
Yes, I would definitely not take the 3%-4% figure as definitive. But it definitely appears to be less deadly than SARS and MERS.
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Old 14th February 2020, 02:34 AM   #1028
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The MRC Centre for Global Disease Analysis at Imperial College in London is giving a preliminary rate of 1%, while admitting the ratio of infections against cases tested is at least 19:1. Serious case death rate of 20%, which is huge.

They explain it all pretty well here: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/1952...al-scientists/

If the 1% holds and 60% of the world is infected, that's 40,000,000 people dying.

You'd better hope they're wrong, because that's getting into nightmare scenario territory - a city of 1,000,000 people will need 5000 critical care beds. Auckland at 1,600,000 probably only has 5000 beds in total and maybe 200 intensive care beds.

That's going to be a very big gap that would be repeated around the world. Let's hope they're overestimating the impact.

And go long on funeral directors.
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Old 14th February 2020, 02:50 AM   #1029
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Originally Posted by rjh01 View Post
The major problem with these figures (mentioned in Arthwollipot's link) is that the number of people who have been infected, during an outbreak, is unknown. A number of people will get infected and recover and they are not counted in any figures as they did not seek medical treatment and if they did the doctor did not count them as having the virus. One option is to say that a certain % of the population died from the virus. I have often seen this when reading about the black death. One small problem with this is that maybe no one died (400 population) from the virus on Lord Howe Island. This may be because they stopped all flights to the Island, rather than the Island being made of super people.
It's sad to think, if only they'd stopped more flights during the black death how many more lives could have been saved.
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Old 14th February 2020, 03:59 AM   #1030
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Originally Posted by a_unique_person View Post
Everyone's immune system is different. It's just like any other disease. The odds are that the weaker people are more likely to die and the stronger are more likely to survive.
Weaker and stronger in the context of the immune system has no meaning. Young, fit people died of flu in 1918 due to cytokine storm. HIV resistance is conferred by the CCR5 mutation. That's genetics.
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Old 14th February 2020, 08:39 AM   #1031
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Originally Posted by Capsid View Post
Weaker and stronger in the context of the immune system has no meaning. Young, fit people died of flu in 1918 due to cytokine storm. HIV resistance is conferred by the CCR5 mutation. That's genetics.
Can't use the fact most who die had some kind of health compromise or were over 75 as an amulet.

Fact is, one of my great uncles (whom, of course, I never met) died suddenly and unexpectedly of a flu-like illness two weeks after contracting it, aged 23. This was in 1914 so a bit before the Spanish flu in 1918.
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Old 14th February 2020, 08:59 AM   #1032
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Originally Posted by Vixen View Post
Can't use the fact most who die had some kind of health compromise or were over 75 as an amulet.

Fact is, one of my great uncles (whom, of course, I never met) died suddenly and unexpectedly of a flu-like illness two weeks after contracting it, aged 23. This was in 1914 so a bit before the Spanish flu in 1918.
Well, the thymus does involute as we get older and probably accounts for a declining immunity. Not sure I would describe that as "weaker" since the experience of being exposed to a lifetime of pathogens is retained.
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Old 14th February 2020, 10:07 AM   #1033
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This article is quite helpful, reporting deaths in health care staff.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51501005
Quote:
Six health workers have died and 1,716 have been infected since the outbreak
Health workers are likely to be relatively young and relatively fit. Ascertainment of infection is likely to be very good as they would try and avoid even staff with mild infections working to minimise transmission. These figures give a mortality of 0.3% in a working age population, probably comparable to seasonal flu. Other estimates are that if this does spread to be a pandemic about 30% - 60% of the global population would be infected. This suggests a global mortality of 6+ million, with 60+ million needing hospitalisation.
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Old 14th February 2020, 12:11 PM   #1034
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First African case, in Egypt.

https://www.euronews.com/2020/02/12/...19-coronavirus
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Old 14th February 2020, 12:20 PM   #1035
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Won't be the last.

Meanwhile, Indonesia is still claiming to have zero cases. Another country sharing a border with China without any cases.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-marc-lipsitch
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Old 14th February 2020, 01:24 PM   #1036
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This is also not good news: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51491763
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Old 14th February 2020, 01:25 PM   #1037
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Originally Posted by Capsid View Post
Weaker and stronger in the context of the immune system has no meaning. Young, fit people died of flu in 1918 due to cytokine storm. HIV resistance is conferred by the CCR5 mutation. That's genetics.
I'm a bit confused here. The immune system does age like the rest of the body. It's one reason we are giving quadruple strength influenza vaccine to people 65 and older.

However there have been occasional exceptions to the rule with flu, not always for clear reasons. The 2009 new variant hit younger people harder than the elderly.
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Old 14th February 2020, 01:28 PM   #1038
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
This article is quite helpful, reporting deaths in health care staff.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51501005

Health workers are likely to be relatively young and relatively fit....
Younger, maybe, but not necessarily "fit".
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Old 14th February 2020, 01:33 PM   #1039
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Originally Posted by sphenisc View Post
There could be a number of cases in India and poorer countries in Africa that have simply been attributed to flu and other common infections. I wonder what the threshold of pneumonia admissions to hospitals and deaths from pneumonia has to be before any alarm bells go off?
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Old 14th February 2020, 01:34 PM   #1040
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Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger View Post
I'm a bit confused here. The immune system does age like the rest of the body. It's one reason we are giving quadruple strength influenza vaccine to people 65 and older.



However there have been occasional exceptions to the rule with flu, not always for clear reasons. The 2009 new variant hit younger people harder than the elderly.

Welcome to the host pathogen relationship.


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