Merged Bitcoin - Part 3

Belz... said:
I don't know why so many people are saying that. Inflation, in moderation, is actually a good thing. It stimulates the economy.
Click to expand...


I don't think that's always the case. I was thinking, in this case, of a global currency that would complement -- not supplant -- the currencies we already use. Kind of like bitcoin, but I was wondering if, at least in theory, we might have a concept without the glaring shortcomings bitcoin has.


psionl0 said:
Inflation is a tax on savings and acts as a disincentive to paying down debts (let inflation do that for you).
Click to expand...


Indeed. Belz does has a point, in economies with an excess of savings, especially when concentrated in the hands of relatively few people, inflation can do good. But I don't think that's always true (that inflation necessarily spurs real growth, or that inflation, even in moderation, is necessarily a good thing).

But I'm no economist (although I'm not entirely unfamiliar with the basics), and I say this off the cuff, so I guess I'm open to correction.


Although a currency needs to expand to accommodate population/GDP growth
Click to expand...


That can -- at least in theory -- be achieved without triggering inflation.


, it is better to use demurrage rather than inflation to stimulate spending.
Click to expand...


Say what? :)

You're using demurrage in a sense I'm not familiar with. A quick and lazy google search does not point at your particular meaning. Perhaps you mean a charge on unused money, a negative interest rate? I guess inflation can be thought of as demurrage (as the term is commonly used) on money stashed under the mattress.
 
For the vast majority of people inflation is not a good thing because it outpaces their wage growth effectively giving them less money over time. In that sense having it higher then like 1% isn't good. But if the ultra rich weren't insane and paid workers properly for the value they provide you could have higher inflation and still be fine
 
Chanakya said:
You're using demurrage in a sense I'm not familiar with. A quick and lazy google search does not point at your particular meaning. Perhaps you mean a charge on unused money, a negative interest rate? I guess inflation can be thought of as demurrage (as the term is commonly used) on money stashed under the mattress.
Click to expand...
There was a thread about demurrage a few years back (http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=277957). It is indeed a form of negative interest rate on bank accounts (not necessarily all of them). In the case of notes, holders have to buy stamps and affix them at regular intervals in order to keep them valid.

The main difference between demurrage and inflation is that with demurrage, you don't have the endless price/wage cycles and loans don't lose their value to inflation so excessive interest rates are not necessary.

Cryptos can easily be designed to implement demurrage on a continuous basis. In fact, one was actually designed - freicoin. It hasn't really taken off in the public imagination even though demurrage replaces transaction fees.
 
psionl0 said:
There was a thread about demurrage a few years back (http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=277957). It is indeed a form of negative interest rate on bank accounts (not necessarily all of them). In the case of notes, holders have to buy stamps and affix them at regular intervals in order to keep them valid.

The main difference between demurrage and inflation is that with demurrage, you don't have the endless price/wage cycles and loans don't lose their value to inflation so excessive interest rates are not necessary.

Cryptos can easily be designed to implement demurrage on a continuous basis. In fact, one was actually designed - freicoin. It hasn't really taken off in the public imagination even though demurrage replaces transaction fees.
Click to expand...


Thanks. That's very interesting!

I guess it's kind of ... not unlikely, that some economist, some time, would have tried to think up some 'ideal' currency.

Crypto does seem to offer a way. Not bitcoin, but perhaps one of the others, perhaps one yet to be put out there, that, in theory, and if people took to it, might actually work as some kind of global currency that doesn't have the glaring shortcomings of the USD or gold or such other.

As for demurrage, surely in such a scenario, the mattress would be the rational place to park one's savings? If, that is, there were no inflation? Although I guess you'd still incur a cost in terms of physical risk, or of physical security to mitigate that risk.

But I haven't yet read that thread you've linked. I look forward to doing that, later on. No doubt these basics would've been addressed there.
 
Belz... said:
What I don't understand is the bit I quoted.

Are you planning on explaing that, or are you just going to waste more bytes?
Click to expand...
Inflation reduces the value of your savings. It transfers wealth from savers to debtors. Is that not obvious to you?

Maybe you think that it is not like a tax unless you are physically handing dollars to another person. Or maybe it is that you have to fill out the necessary forms and submit them to the tax man.

This is reminiscent of those who say "it ain't money unless it is a federal reserve note . . . . ."
 
psionl0 said:
Inflation reduces the value of your savings. It transfers wealth from savers to debtors. Is that not obvious to you?
Click to expand...

What's obvious is that you're not describing a tax. If your savings don't have interests rates, it isn't the government's fault.

Maybe you think that it is not like a tax unless you are physically handing dollars to another person.
Click to expand...

No, it's not a tax unless it's a tax. It's not a tax. Inflation is not a government program to fund its services. It's a normal function of a working economy.
 
This pyramid will stop at about 9200. However I am no longer confident the edifice is going to crumble, interesting, I may change my view. On the other hand if current price is best guide to future price, and bitcoin does as intended, it will flat line in price for a few centuries like standard currencies.
 
psionl0 said:
Yes but what about bitcoin?
Click to expand...

9188 stopped it.
However I consider it a great trader's market but for the wicked spread. I think it will all stabilise and flat line during the year, that is my current prediction. The crypto sphere will tend towards a conventional currency range model, and they can all get real jobs.
 
Samson said:
9188 stopped it.
However I consider it a great trader's market but for the wicked spread. I think it will all stabilise and flat line during the year, that is my current prediction. The crypto sphere will tend towards a conventional currency range model, and they can all get real jobs.
Click to expand...
That's an amazing coincidence. Bitcoin rose in price as well as your unnamed pyramid.

I hope your pyramid did better though. With a sell order at 9200, bitcoin just missed triggering the sell and plunged back down into the 8600s again. With all hope of a profit gone this time, this prediction would have to go into the "fail" category.
 
Dr.Sid said:
Nah, I'd give it to him this time. It's not over yet though. It's never over :-D
Click to expand...
You can say "near enough" if you like but your bank balance won't.

Of course, at some time in the future, bitcoin could top 9200 again and that would bring a revisionist analysis about how the prediction was right all along.
 
psionl0 said:
You can say "near enough" if you like but your bank balance won't.

Of course, at some time in the future, bitcoin could top 9200 again and that would bring a revisionist analysis about how the prediction was right all along.
Click to expand...

Exactly, which is why Samson's "magic 8 ball" style predictions from his so-called technical analysis have a much greater than 50% chance of being right.
 
Bitcoin topped the 9200 barrier this morning (currently about 9360).

It's a pity that Samson chickened out at 9188 - or did the pyramid fail to rise also?
 
psionl0 said:
Bitcoin topped the 9200 barrier this morning (currently about 9360).

It's a pity that Samson chickened out at 9188 - or did the pyramid fail to rise also?
Click to expand...
I saw the bull run inception in the algo and described regretfully to a friend.
As I have said I can’t bring myself to suggest buying the wretched thing.
:o
 
The Don said:
I was just pointing out to the uninitiated that your "predictions" aren't just 50/50 calls. For something which has a volatile price, saying that it will be higher/lower than its current price at some unspecified point in the future is both highly likely to be correct, but also functionally useless.
Click to expand...

Correct.

You sound like someone with actual, real life trading experience.
 
psionl0 said:
No disrespect to The Don but a mannequin could figure out the same thing.
Click to expand...

And yet, the internet is full of non-mannequins who can't seem to do so. Actually trading real money helps to cut through the nonsense, I've noticed.
 
psionl0 said:
Bitcoin topped the 9200 barrier this morning (currently about 9360).

It's a pity that Samson chickened out at 9188 - or did the pyramid fail to rise also?
Click to expand...

Why should anyone care? Bitcoin is a busted flush. I matters not how that market is manipulated. I have not an interest in associating with the criminal fraternity, nor the crank fraternity.
 
abaddon said:
Why should anyone care? Bitcoin is a busted flush.
Click to expand...
If we are not interested in Samson's fortune telling then what makes you think that we would be interested in yours? Tell us when the prices has dropped to zero.

abaddon said:
I matters not how that market is manipulated. I have not an interest in associating with the criminal fraternity, nor the crank fraternity.
Click to expand...
Here's a radical thought. End the war on drugs. That should see the demand for secret money drop to the floor.
 
Anyone familiar with Chainlink? Sorry the thread seems longish and I didn't want to pour back through it.

I have done some random googling, and it seems like it's getting a bit more attention recently. It should be noted I'm extremely dumb when it comes to this stuff. I'm invested to the tune of about $138 which has been as low as $98 and as high as $200. Mostly invested in Ripple, but I'm thinking about buying a bit of this coin to see how it does.
 
psionl0 said:
Inflation reduces the value of your savings. It transfers wealth from savers to debtors. Is that not obvious to you?
Click to expand...

Inflation, or more accurately, money creation, transfers wealth from savers to the (more likely than not) parasitical recipients of the newly created money or credit. While it's true that the real value of debts are worth less as money is debased, unless the debtor is a direct beneficiary of the money creation, it's just a second order effect.

Maybe you think that it is not like a tax unless you are physically handing dollars to another person. Or maybe it is that you have to fill out the necessary forms and submit them to the tax man.

This is reminiscent of those who say "it ain't money unless it is a federal reserve note . . . . ."
Click to expand...

With the advent of MMT becoming front and center, it's clearly obvious that inflation (money creation, specifically) is a tax. It's 2020, and Francesca was dead wrong, and I was right. MMT simply could not fund government if it weren't a tax. It's not a "direct" tax, since the Fed and it's cronies don't have to knock on your door and collect tax revenue, they can just debase your savings with a keystroke, but it is most certainly a tax, perhaps the most lucrative of all.
 
Tippit said:
Inflation, or more accurately, money creation, transfers wealth from savers to the (more likely than not) parasitical recipients of the newly created money or credit.
Click to expand...
This is not the thread for such a discussion but I think it is unfair to label people who borrow money from banks "parasitical recipients". There are plenty of legitimate reasons to borrow money (eg to build up a business).

To respond to what you posted in the silver thread, yes, a lot of bitcoin trading takes place "off block". That is why it is simplistic to examine the blockchain and scream "price manipulation" (although the price is likely manipulated).
 
psionl0 said:
No disrespect to The Don but a mannequin could figure out the same thing.
Click to expand...

Considering hop how much of this thread is dedicated to trying to explain to you that Bitcoin lacks an underlying market force to drive it’s price, I’m really not so sure you are in much of a position to comment on who could/couldn't figure this out...
 
lomiller said:
Considering hop how much of this thread is dedicated to trying to explain to you that Bitcoin lacks an underlying market force to drive it’s price, I’m really not so sure you are in much of a position to comment on who could/couldn't figure this out...
Click to expand...
Bitcoin has been around for 12 years now and still commands a high price so I am calling BS on this.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Back
Top Bottom