2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

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angrysoba said:
ETA: was she at Monday’s COBRA meeting?
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That's a bloody good question!

Skeptic Ginger said:
Just had a person from Seattle on the news, she had a mild case, only fever, no respiratory symptoms and she's well now. She got sick after attending a party. They only found the case because she submitted a nasal sample for flu testing.

No mention if other people from the party have even been notified, let alone tested or advised to self-quarantine. :mad:
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You're playing it just like us - my daughter has all of the symptoms, so I rang the dedicated health line and was told to visit a GP.

Gobsmacked, I asked the nurse at the other end why the hell I would do that, being the exact opposite of what's needed.

Our government's health department is determined to make us Little Italy.

a_unique_person said:
How about this for the variable fatality rates. If best quality treatment is available the death rate is lower than if the health system is overloaded. That would explain the huge spike in Italy.
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Sure it will. That's the whole point of mitigation efforts - control the outbreak, keep it small, ensure intubated ICUs are available for every patient who needs one.

I imagine death rates when hospitals are overflowing are probably 50% higher than they would otherwise be.
 
portlandatheist said:
I was just thinking that politicians, in general, are a high-risk group. They travel, go to meetings and gatherings of all kinds, and interact with the public. They shake hands. I'm sure we'll see many of them get the virus.
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And other than a joke or two avoiding hand shaking, none of them are practicing social distancing.

The Democrats need a back up plan if Biden catches it.
 
N. Macedonia under quarantine. Apparently they had their first verified case Feb 26th, and already the whole country went on on lock down yesterday. My friend did not say if it was mandatory or voluntary quarantine, only that she was not supposed to leave her house for anything but emergencies.

So apparently it isn't just Italy, but also rapidly spreading through the Balkan states.

No word from my Greek friends yet.
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
I haven't found the number but this is on the public health web site:

http://www.austintexas.gov/COVID19
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I found this from your link
Currently, it’s unclear how easily or sustainably this virus is spreading between people.
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I find that amazing. Should be easy to find out when it has just started spreading from person to person. Method
1. A person with the virus is asked about their movements.
2. It is discovered that this person came into contact with another person who also had the virus.
3. They are both asked what contact they had with each other.
4. Repeat the above steps for other cases until you have a good sample size.
5. Discover what sort of contact most of them had.
6. Alert the public not to do this type of contact with a person who might have the virus.
7. Repeat the above steps

Note on step 5. It should be found that most of them had similar types of contact. Maybe most of them came briefly close to each other (if this is the case then maybe everyone in the room got the virus). Or maybe they were together for 15 minutes. It is important also in this step to find out contact they had with other people while they were infectious but did not give it to these people.

Note on step 7. The method of transmission may change over time or there may be more than one method of transmission.
 
Maybe they need to convert hotels and other tourist accommodation into ICUs. Train people on how to treat the patients. These people could even have a mild case themselves (as long as that does not make anyone even more sick!). It would have the advantage of keeping these people employed, as well as locked up. They would be there 24 hours a day until they are no longer infectious. A major problem with this is that specialised equipment might be hard to get. Australia has a month or two to get this equipment if it starts now.
 
The Atheist said:
Sure it will. That's the whole point of mitigation efforts - control the outbreak, keep it small, ensure intubated ICUs are available for every patient who needs one.

I imagine death rates when hospitals are overflowing are probably 50% higher than they would otherwise be.
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Good point.

Likely the reason that nothing is being done here in Orange County. They can afford for it to spread slowly because the rate of transmission is pretty low.

I think public transport is a factor and almost no one uses it here. Our cars are like millions of little protective bubbles that stem the tide.
 
rjh01 said:
I found this from your link

I find that amazing. Should be easy to find out when it has just started spreading from person to person. Method
1. A person with the virus is asked about their movements.
2. It is discovered that this person came into contact with another person who also had the virus.
3. They are both asked what contact they had with each other.
4. Repeat the above steps for other cases until you have a good sample size.
5. Discover what sort of contact most of them had.
6. Alert the public not to do this type of contact with a person who might have the virus.
7. Repeat the above steps

Note on step 5. It should be found that most of them had similar types of contact. Maybe most of them came briefly close to each other (if this is the case then maybe everyone in the room got the virus). Or maybe they were together for 15 minutes. It is important also in this step to find out contact they had with other people while they were infectious but did not give it to these people.

Note on step 7. The method of transmission may change over time or there may be more than one method of transmission.
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Public Health here gave up contact tracing almost before they started as the virus was already loose in the community. Cases unconnected to the first case were turning up everywhere.
 
a_unique_person said:
According to the GOP it is now called the "China Virus". Smart marketing move.
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I don't really see the issue with the name 'Wuhan Virus'. Is there any recent examples where restraint in regards to naming a virus was used? I did read that the WHO a number of years back wanted to stop the practice of associating virus names with certain things like places but I can't think of any backlash until this current outbreak.

It hasn't been that long since MERS and I don't recall any widespread issues being voiced about that name. Then again I am not in the medical field and since it didn't become the same kind of problem as this current outbreak, it didn't really cause me to spend as much time keeping up to date with everything going in.
 
How many times will we have to self isolate?

Was thinking about this, if I have what I think are the symptoms and I as advised self quarantine but aren't tested and in fact don't have the viral infection and I return to normal life, then I again get some suspicious symptoms I go back into self isolation.

Is self isolation useful if I'm not tested?
 
Darat said:
How many times will we have to self isolate?

Was thinking about this, if I have what I think are the symptoms and I as advised self quarantine but aren't tested and in fact don't have the viral infection and I return to normal life, then I again get some suspicious symptoms I go back into self isolation.

Is self isolation useful if I'm not tested?
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depends on whether you are worried about being infectious or getting infected.
 
rjh01 said:
It is important also in this step to find out contact they had with other people while they were infectious but did not give it to these people.
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Not practical.

My daughter is a classic example. She comes into contact with probably 100 people a day, and if those people pick up germs from her on their hands, then they could potentially infect dozens more each.

Some people, it will be helpful, but in a lot of cases, a complete waste of time.

The fact that I've been asking for years why we aren't teleworking is just another piece on the pile from where I sit.

We could have this sucker under control in days, but nobody can be bothered.

rjh01 said:
Maybe they need to convert hotels and other tourist accommodation into ICUs. Train people on how to treat the patients.
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If it were that easy there wouldn't be a worldwide shortage of doctors and nurses.

Darat said:
How many times will we have to self isolate?

Was thinking about this, if I have what I think are the symptoms and I as advised self quarantine but aren't tested and in fact don't have the viral infection and I return to normal life, then I again get some suspicious symptoms I go back into self isolation.

Is self isolation useful if I'm not tested?
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No, in fact, it's counter-productive if you're not tested, because you're eating into sick leave unnecessarily. I'd say that would make people less likely to do it a second time, so the testing should be easy enough to access that it's not an issue.

Every country seems to be looking to Italy instead of South Korea for a template on how to proceed.
 
The Atheist said:
rjh01 said:
It is important also in this step to find out contact they had with other people while they were infectious but did not give it to these people.
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Not practical.

My daughter is a classic example. She comes into contact with probably 100 people a day, and if those people pick up germs from her on their hands, then they could potentially infect dozens more each.

Some people, it will be helpful, but in a lot of cases, a complete waste of time.
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I am sure your daughter would know where she has been in the last few days. If she has been in the same place as someone else who has the virus then we can assume that either she gave it to that other person or she got it from that other person. They could both then be given a photo of each other and asked do you remember this person?

Once many people in any one location have the virus this becomes hard as each person would be in contact with several people all with the virus and many of them do not tell the authorities they have the virus. One of the things you need is for anyone who may have the virus to get tested fast. The more people, with the virus, who do not get tested the harder it is for this to work.

rjh01 said:
Maybe they need to convert hotels and other tourist accommodation into ICUs. Train people on how to treat the patients.
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If it were that easy there wouldn't be a worldwide shortage of doctors and nurses.

<snip>
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You may be right, but it is not often that they get heaps of people all with the same thing wrong with them. Hence a team of people could be trained to provide most of the services these sick people need. Each person in the team could be trained to do one or two functions. Hence not much training required. These people would be useless at providing care for people with other diseases. If anything unusual happens then a fully trained nurse or doctor could be called.
 
rjh01 said:
These people would be useless at providing care for people with other diseases. If anything unusual happens then a fully trained nurse or doctor could be called.
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Every trained nurse and doctor that's not sick will be in deck at actual hospitals, and when it comes to things like intubation - which is going to be required in large numbers, I doubt you could teach people in the time available.

The other problem for you is lack of materials - hospitals don't have oodles of ICU equipment lying around, making the rooms sterile and air-tight would be a touch difficult.

Nice thought, but not at all practical.

The practical measure would be to get armed forces to set up MASH-style hospitals and get ready to lend a hand.
 
Darat said:
How many times will we have to self isolate?

Was thinking about this, if I have what I think are the symptoms and I as advised self quarantine but aren't tested and in fact don't have the viral infection and I return to normal life, then I again get some suspicious symptoms I go back into self isolation.

Is self isolation useful if I'm not tested?
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This is why we need drive-through testing.
 
The thing that keeps coming into my mind is a program I watched several years ago about the behaviour of people in emergency situations and the differences between those who survive and those who die.

9/11: The staff of the company who had health and safety guy who insisted on regular fire drills got out. Others stayed to finish of that very important email didn't fair so well.

Fire in Wolworth's (a former department chain store fire in UK): People in restaurant who had just sat down to eat their fish and chips stayed in restaurant despite smoke coming in under curtains.

Just listened to Sam Harris' podcast on Coronavirus and how amazingly badly the USA is dealing with it.

Humans suck at risk! I'm hoping our flight to Las Vegas for wedding is cancelled so the decision is taken out of our hands. Don't want my 76 year old mother ill in New York in the middle of April relying on the flash, expensive and crap US healthcare system!
 
Ivor the Engineer said:
The thing that keeps coming into my mind is a program I watched several years ago about the behaviour of people in emergency situations and the differences between those who survive and those who die.

9/11: The staff of the company who had health and safety guy who insisted on regular fire drills got out. Others stayed to finish of that very important email didn't fair so well.

Fire in Wolworth's (a former department chain store fire in UK): People in restaurant who had just sat down to eat their fish and chips stayed in restaurant despite smoke coming in under curtains.

Just listened to Sam Harris' podcast on Coronavirus and how amazingly badly the USA is dealing with it.

Humans suck at risk! I'm hoping our flight to Las Vegas for wedding is cancelled so the decision is taken out of our hands. Don't want my 76 year old mother ill in New York in the middle of April relying on the flash, expensive and crap US healthcare system!
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Yeah, good point.

It’s one of those “I don’t want to look weird by reacting differently from everyone else” situations where we look to others for clues for how to behave in an unfamiliar situation.

Actually, we found ourselves in a similar position to Sam Harris as we had taken our son out of his kindergarten before the schools were officially closed and we were also wondering if maybe we were just over reacting.

Still, I know of at least one guy who is completely underreacting. His son came down with a fever at his nursery school and two days later (today!) he sent him back to school. Wtf!
 
Darat said:
How many times will we have to self isolate?

Was thinking about this, if I have what I think are the symptoms and I as advised self quarantine but aren't tested and in fact don't have the viral infection and I return to normal life, then I again get some suspicious symptoms I go back into self isolation.

Is self isolation useful if I'm not tested?
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Yes. Self isolation is always a good idea when you have the symptoms of a contagious disease. On those occasions when you don't have COVID-19, you'll still be minimizing the risk of passing other contagious diseases to others.

A test for COVID-19 immunity (possessing antibodies to the coronavirus because you've already had it and recovered from it) would be a great thing to have though. I've just recovered from a week of illness - probably not COVID-19 but maybe. I would be relieved to know that it was COVID-19 because I'd then be able to go shopping and attend events without fear of COVID-19 infection. As far as I know, no such test is readily and affordably available.
 
The Atheist said:
Every trained nurse and doctor that's not sick will be in deck at actual hospitals, and when it comes to things like intubation - which is going to be required in large numbers, I doubt you could teach people in the time available.

The other problem for you is lack of materials - hospitals don't have oodles of ICU equipment lying around, making the rooms sterile and air-tight would be a touch difficult.

Nice thought, but not at all practical.

The practical measure would be to get armed forces to set up MASH-style hospitals and get ready to lend a hand.
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Yes the defence forces might be able to provide hospital care for some people, but what happens when all of this is overwhelmed? It is something we should be discussing now. Maybe it might be better to discuss this issue in the new thread covid-19 and politics, as it is more of a political decision than medical.
 
Originally Posted by eeyore1954 View Post
I don’t think they are being called to enforce a quarantine. They are being called for logistics. I think it is a one mile diameter area. Unless it is like a trial I don’t see it helping much.
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dudalb said:
Porbably but the footage alone of the Guard being deployed will up the fear factor in this country considerably.
And Trumpy's "Don't Worry, Be Happy" message this morning won't help much either.
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I heard the mayor of New Rochelle this morning on the radio. The National Guard is their to do thing like delivering the food to school kids who were on lunch programs.
 
Ivor the Engineer said:
Fire in Wolworth's (a former department chain store fire in UK): People in restaurant who had just sat down to eat their fish and chips stayed in restaurant despite smoke coming in under curtains.
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Yes but weren't those fish and chips good.

Humans suck at risk! I'm hoping our flight to Las Vegas for wedding is cancelled so the decision is taken out of our hands. Don't want my 76 year old mother ill in New York in the middle of April relying on the flash, expensive and crap US healthcare system!
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You shouldn't rely on others to make that decision for you. Although that can be a very tough decision.
 
portlandatheist said:
I was just thinking that politicians, in general, are a high-risk group. They travel, go to meetings and gatherings of all kinds, and interact with the public. They shake hands. I'm sure we'll see many of them get the virus.
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If and when it begins affecting the upper echelons of government here in the U.S., it would deserve a new line in Alanis Morissette’s “Ironic”.*


*I began the post thinking I would say it would have a Shakespearean bent to it, but Alanis’ song is more timely.
 
I've seen a few recirculated posts on Facebook blaming the media for the panic hype. One of them quoted Dr. Drew. Like any political posting, I avoid getting drawn into that mess.
Except in a few weeks or months, when I may want to revisit those posts and write "What do you say now, you stupid ****?"
 
a_unique_person said:
How about this for the variable fatality rates. If best quality treatment is available the death rate is lower than if the health system is overloaded. That would explain the huge spike in Italy.
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IMO the variation in fatality rates is almost entirely a function of how many people have been tested. Even S. Korea probably hasn’t found all the active cases so the rate they are reporting is still higher than the “real” rate. Insufficient facilities for people having serious breathing problems could result in some additional deaths though.
 
Armitage72 said:
A child in New Jersey suffered chemical burns from what was likely a home-made hand sanitizer being sold at a 7-11.
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I bought a quart of Everclear and just poured it out. It's illegal to drive with an open container in a vehicle. And if I just stay home I don't need it to begin with.

There were large isopropyl wipes available so I bought a canister. Also some foiled-wrapped ones but they're tiny, like you would use to prep skin for an injection of blood draw. You'd need several to clean your hands.

I've done a few errands as normal but they are for necessities, computer repair, dog food and a fruitless search for hand sanitizer. My brother and his GF planned to fly in from Seattle and take his sibs to Opening Day at the local MLB stadium! Not sure that's gonna work out.

I live in a campus for the elderly with my 95-year-old mom. I have zero personal fear for my own safety, but bringing it home with me would suck. If I'm stocked up with functioning electronics I'd readily self-quarantine, but need to be out & about today.
 
Minoosh said:
I bought a quart of Everclear and just poured it out. It's illegal to drive with an open container in a vehicle. And if I just stay home I don't need it to begin with.

There were large isopropyl wipes available so I bought a canister. Also some foiled-wrapped ones but they're tiny, like you would use to prep skin for an injection of blood draw. You'd need several to clean your hands.

I've done a few errands as normal but they are for necessities, computer repair, dog food and a fruitless search for hand sanitizer. My brother and his GF planned to fly in from Seattle and take his sibs to Opening Day at the local MLB stadium! Not sure that's gonna work out.

I live in a campus for the elderly with my 95-year-old mom. I have zero personal fear for my own safety, but bringing it home with me would suck. If I'm stocked up with functioning electronics I'd readily self-quarantine, but need to be out & about today.
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I am similarly prepared, but the real deciding factor is for someone in authority to actually issue clear, decisive instructions.

I only have about 3 days worth of PTO accrued for this year so I would need my work to go ahead and instruct employees to stay home. Unpaid leave I can manage, but getting fired for no-show I cannot.

Lots of reports about organizational chaos out there. Tests not being available, suspected infected having no clear instructions on who to contact or what to do, and so on.
 
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