2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

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I thought that this was an interesting video of the former chief medical officer of the UK explaining what the strategy is.

If I remember rightly, he points out that "herd immunity" is not the policy as such, rather it is "flattening the curve".

If you take the view that this virus will inevitably become endemic to the human population, then extreme quarantining could just be delaying the inevitable.

 
That said, it looks like the UK's fatalities have doubled, or nearly doubled in 24 hours for two days running.

And this is early in the outbreak.

By the time they start going to extreme measures, the UK could be going into Italian territory....
 
angrysoba said:
Imagine this happening in even more under-developed countries.
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It's going to regardless. They won't be able to test, track or stop it.

Even the Indian gov't Minister I quoted a million posts ago admitted they have no chance of stopping it. They have one test facility in all of India.

They're doomed, and nothing will change that.

angrysoba said:
If you take the view that this virus will inevitably become endemic to the human population, then extreme quarantining could just be delaying the inevitable.
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That's what I keep saying!

I think at the moment, countries are standing in front of a runaway train, shouting "STOP!" and hoping it does so.

But I just don't think it will.

The most interesting conundrum the world has faced since Neville Chamberlain stepped off a plane waving a piece of paper with Herr Hitler's signature on it.
 
How long until some restaurant or bar owners decdies to defy the closing order and how much support willhe get.
 
dudalb said:
SO you think letting the virus take it course is a good idea?
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Rule of so.

That’s not the policy. If you watched the video of Vallance talking you would know that is not the policy. As I thought, you are criticizing the policy from a position of ignorance.

There are a number of people who have criticized the policy from an intelligent standpoint. At least read them first and then come back to us.
 
The Peace Corps is evacuating all volunteers back to the U.S.


Peace Corps announces suspension of Volunteer activities, evacuations due to COVID-19

This leads one to wonder: Many, possibly most of the volunteers are living in small villages and other low density housing situations. Now they will all be routed to the national capitols and then through airports which are very crowded due to everyone (not just Peace Corps Volunteers) trying to get to where they need to go before further travel restrictions get put into place.

Then one hears numerous stories of massive crowds at grocery stores, as everyone tries to stock up before things get worse.

I keep wondering how much of this last minute rush is just making things worse. It would take a few days to show up, there may be a whole lot of people getting infected in the airports and grocery stores and such as they do what they can, ironically, to avoid getting infected.
 
People will probably get self-isolation fatigue after a few weeks. I guess we'll see then.

Meanwhile, here in Norway everything is grinding to a halt. I just checked the home page of our chess federation; all large and medium tournaments cancelled though club evenings are still on... for now.

I'll go to the local grocer in about an hour. They open at 6AM and I'll be there! They were out of pasta last time I went, so it'll be interesting to see what they have left of everything.
 
The Atheist said:
The most interesting conundrum the world has faced since Neville Chamberlain stepped off a plane waving a piece of paper with Herr Hitler's signature on it.
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We, in the States, like to criticize Chamberlain as the great appeaser but don't look all that closely at our own actions.

The States did nothing after Germany invaded Poland while Chamberlain declared a state of war.

After Japan bombed Pearl Harbor the States declared war only on Japan. It wasn't until Germany, in support of their ally, declared war on the States that we reciprocated.

And we are late to addressing this party as well.
 
marting said:
We, in the States, like to criticize Chamberlain as the great appeaser but don't look all that closely at our own actions.

The States did nothing after Germany invaded Poland while Chamberlain declared a state of war.

After Japan bombed Pearl Harbor the States declared war only on Japan. It wasn't until Germany, in support of their ally, declared war on the States that we reciprocated.

And we are late to addressing this party as well.
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There is a plausible argument that Chamberlain’s “appeasement” bought the U.K. enough time to defend themselves when Poland was invaded and war was actually declared, whereas going to war earlier with an ill prepared U.K. would have been a disaster.

In many ways flattening the curve is a similar concept.
 
angrysoba said:
I thought that this was an interesting video of the former chief medical officer of the UK explaining what the strategy is.

If I remember rightly, he points out that "herd immunity" is not the policy as such, rather it is "flattening the curve".

If you take the view that this virus will inevitably become endemic to the human population, then extreme quarantining could just be delaying the inevitable.
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I am not certain I understand what you are getting at here. The goal is to reduce deaths and sickness during the epidemic stage; the virus establishing a endemic status later would be unfortunate but that does not reduce the importance of controlling the epidemic. Bubonic plaque is endemic in California. That does not mean preventing a bubonic plaque epidemic is meaningless.
 
Giordano said:
I am not certain I understand what you are getting at here. The goal is to reduce deaths and sickness during the epidemic stage; the virus establishing a endemic status later would be unfortunate but that does not reduce the importance of controlling the epidemic. Bubonic plaque is endemic in California. That does not mean preventing a bubonic plaque epidemic is meaningless.
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Nobody is (seriously) arguing against controlling the epidemic, as far as I know.

The only thing that is being debated is the methods of controlling the epidemic, and presumably how the resources for the healthcare system will be managed.

When I said, "extreme quarantining could just be delaying the inevitable", I am just pointing out one possible response may work in the short term but not in the long term, particularly when you have issues with compliance.

From what I understand, people in Wuhan are not allowed to leave their homes at all, except for maybe one family member to make a once-a-week trip to the supermarket.

How long could that policy be implemented around the world?
 
I think people should at least listen to what a particular scientist is saying before they start characterizing them as "a crackpot" who wants to "let the virus take its course".

 
angrysoba said:
I think people should at least listen to what a particular scientist is saying before they start characterizing them as "a crackpot" who wants to "let the virus take its course".

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And if I have listened to both sides: ignore it and isolate high risk people, or, make every effort to flatten the curve until treatments and vaccines are developed, and I've come to the conclusion the evidence overwhelmingly supports option #2, then what?

Think about it, letting the virus overrun hospitals and cause economic hardship because so many people will be out sick anyway, or, a short term economic disaster that we can recover from? Really? You think option #1 makes sense?
 
Skeptic Ginger said:
And if I have listened to both sides: ignore it and isolate high risk people, or, make every effort to flatten the curve until treatments and vaccines are developed, and I've come to the conclusion the evidence overwhelmingly supports option #2, then what?

Think about it, letting the virus overrun hospitals and cause economic hardship because so many people will be out sick anyway, or, a short term economic disaster that we can recover from? Really? You think option #1 makes sense?
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You haven’t even listened if you think “ignore it and isolate high risks people” is the option being put forward.

Did you even watch the video?
 
angrysoba said:
From what I understand, people in Wuhan are not allowed to leave their homes at all, except for maybe one family member to make a once-a-week trip to the supermarket.

How long could that policy be implemented around the world?
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Most restrictions like that that have been lifted as China has cut new coronavirus infections to a small fraction of that in Feb. or even most much smaller countries in Europe currently. Shops have re-opened and most travel restrictions ended. Really remarkable job. They will have to now maintain a balance watching out for local breakouts and stopping them early. I suspect they will be a model of what can be done to corral an initially large epidemic.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news...0-intl-hnk/h_00633a0135cea337eda02ce7e6c854e3
 
****...I just realized I am a high risk person. That’s me!

I have heart disease and (well controlled) diabetes II.

I’m gong to work from home as much as possible for as long as I can.

Stay safe, y’all...
 
NZ continues to lead the world in rules for dealing with Covid-19.

Leading by showing what not to do, that is.

Gatherings of over 500 people are banned.

But all schools, some of which have 2500 pupils, stay open...
 
Giordano said:
There is a plausible argument that Chamberlain’s “appeasement” bought the U.K. enough time to defend themselves when Poland was invaded and war was actually declared, whereas going to war earlier with an ill prepared U.K. would have been a disaster.
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Not necessarily, because Germany was also ill prepared as well. I would not call that exactly "plausible", more like remotely possible but highly unlikely.

And yes, this strategy is not really buying time against the virus either. In fact the opposite.
 
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marting said:
Most restrictions like that that have been lifted as China has cut new coronavirus infections to a small fraction of that in Feb. or even most much smaller countries in Europe currently. Shops have re-opened and most travel restrictions ended. Really remarkable job. They will have to now maintain a balance watching out for local breakouts and stopping them early. I suspect they will be a model of what can be done to corral an initially large epidemic.
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news...0-intl-hnk/h_00633a0135cea337eda02ce7e6c854e3
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My money is on South Korea.
 
angrysoba said:
You haven’t even listened if you think “ignore it and isolate high risks people” is the option being put forward.
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I'm inclined to think the Poms have the right idea.

As Ian Donald - Emeritus Professor of Liverpool University - puts it:

Donald says the Italian lockdowns aimed at trying to stop as much infection as possible are appealing, "but then what?" He warns such restrictions are not sustainable for months and will have to be relaxed, leading to a new surge in infections.
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That's exactly the point I keep making if you have a lockdown and slow the virus: what next?

angrysoba said:
My money is on South Korea.
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That works as long as you go hard and go early.

I suppose you might be able to control the spread with lockdowns, then ensure you follow SK's lead. Countries will need to be right on top of their game, but also run the risk of importing new infections, because developing countries will see the virus just run wild.
__________________________

India is showing one new case in the past 24 hours.

Just one.
 
And I'm starting to really freak out.

My desk neighbour -- who has been back from overseas for more than two weeks -- has been worried today that he may have a fever, and was coughing on the weekend.

Meanwhile, I've been suppressing a dry cough all afternoon.

Let's hope it's just a stress response.

(I guess I'll know tomorrow).

I've been monitoring my temperature for the last week (never done that before) and notice that it rarely changes more that a couple of tenths of degree. If it jumps to above 37 there's no way I'm going to work.
 
And finally some good news...

The shiny new hospital next door is open and fully operational (since the end of January).

This means that they have moved out of their existing city hospitals.

Those vacated hospitals are now going to be quickly retrofitted (because they're empty at the moment) to become CoViD-19 treatment centres.

Now that is a happy co-incidence.

:thumbsup: :) :thumbsup:
 
xjx388 said:
****...I just realized I am a high risk person. That’s me!

I have heart disease and (well controlled) diabetes II.

I’m gong to work from home as much as possible for as long as I can.

Stay safe, y’all...
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Are you over 65?
 
xjx388 said:
****...I just realized I am a high risk person. That’s me!

I have heart disease and (well controlled) diabetes II.

I’m gong to work from home as much as possible for as long as I can.

Stay safe, y’all...
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You too. But as long as your diabetes type 2 is well-controlled, that shouldn't make you worry - at least not according to the experts I've seen giving advice to people here.
But don't forget to put in some exercise. Many people tend to forget to exercise when working from home.
 
a_unique_person said:
That cut off year could be moveable. On a radio discussion today 60 was mentioned as a possibility. In Italy, I think 50, is on the cards.
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Of the four deaths in Denmark so far, three of them were 80, 81 and 92. I don't know the age of the last one, but that person was described as an elderly person "hospitalized with several serious diseases."
Also: two of them were described as male patients, there's no information about the other two.
Nyeste corona-tal fra Danmark og verden: Så mange er smittede, døde og indlagte (TV2, March 16, 2020)
 
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I want to know if self isolation means I can still go out for a drive or ride my motorbike. Or do we have to stay indoors and that is it?
 
Nessie said:
I want to know if self isolation means I can still go out for a drive or ride my motorbike. Or do we have to stay indoors and that is it?
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Last night on Danish TV, a doctor recommended going outside - also when meeting people. If you don't stand or sit too close to anybody, it's much less likely to transfer any infections. And viruses don't like the sun.
 
dann said:
Last night on Danish TV, a doctor recommended going outside - also when meeting people. If you don't stand or sit too close to anybody, it's much less likely to transfer any infections. And viruses don't like the sun.
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That's what I have heard as well. But... at some point the authorities may order everybody to stay in their homes, or forbid all traveling except for necessary business like buying food or walking your dog.
 
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