2019-nCoV / Corona virus Pt 2

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Not according to this:
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221

In the earliest days at Wuhan, much of the spread was from people that hadn't been tested because they far outnumbered the known cases. Still, the infectiousness of these people with minimal or no symptoms was significantly less than those that had been identified.
That is not mutually exclusive.

Add that to the pile of studies people cite while drawing conclusions well before enough data has been collected. (Not you so much as the source you cited.)

There is evidence of asymptomatic spread. There is evidence of kids getting infected. And there is even more evidence of premature statements from the public health in the US giving dangerous advice to people that you only got it from people with symptoms and only in close contact like in households.

In the US, that short sighted BS from people drawing conclusions instead of saying, "we don't know yet" resulted in people not getting tested who should have been and it resulted in unnecessary spread and it's disgusting.
 
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That is not mutually exclusive.
Certainly true.

There is evidence of asymptomatic spread. There is evidence of kids getting infected. And there is even more evidence of premature statements from the public health in the US giving dangerous advice to people that you only got it from people with symptoms and only in close contact like in households.
That short sighted BS from people drawing conclusions instead of saying, "we don't know yet" resulted in people not getting tested who should have been and it resulted in unnecessary spread and it's disgusting.

Yep. Sure is. I've even seen a few people claiming that testing is harmful! Testing is critical for planning and adapting mitigation. It's just mind boggling how screwed up it has been.
 
It's an opinion, indicated by the word "seems". The opinion was arrived at by a subjective comparison of the number of deaths with the economic hardship observed and predicted.


ETA: I'm not sure what number of deaths would be proportional, although I could think about it. What number of deaths do you think would be proportional to this worldwide economic chaos?

I have no idea, but it seems you ought to otherwise you wouldn't know what an out of proportion number would be.
 
Anyone come across Wolfgang Wodarg doing the rounds amongst those trying to downplay this pandemic?
wodarg.com
His main claims are:


1. the lab in China identified a novel corona virus in a small sample of pneumonia patients (<50) of whom there are always plenty in Wuhan (with 11 million people) and put it into "the virus database" (whatever that is)

2. the German virologist Christian Drosten developed a test for this virus which was "rushed to market" in China without proper validation so we don't actually know if it tests what it should

3. we don't know the baseline for coronaviruses in pneumonia related deaths so we can't establish whether COVID-19 actually increased the rates: From the cited Glasgow study we would expect around 5-15% of flu season deaths to test positive for a coronavirus in an average flu season in Germany. That would be 3000 deaths which is more than 100x more than the reported COVID-19 death toll in Germany so far

4. just because someone tests positive for SARS-CoV-2 and died of pneumonia does not mean that they died because of SARS-CoV-2.

Seems to me he wants to be the Duesberg of Covid-19....
 
Anyone come across Wolfgang Wodarg doing the rounds amongst those trying to downplay this pandemic?
wodarg.com
His main claims are:


1. the lab in China identified a novel corona virus in a small sample of pneumonia patients (<50) of whom there are always plenty in Wuhan (with 11 million people) and put it into "the virus database" (whatever that is)

2. the German virologist Christian Drosten developed a test for this virus which was "rushed to market" in China without proper validation so we don't actually know if it tests what it should

3. we don't know the baseline for coronaviruses in pneumonia related deaths so we can't establish whether COVID-19 actually increased the rates: From the cited Glasgow study we would expect around 5-15% of flu season deaths to test positive for a coronavirus in an average flu season in Germany. That would be 3000 deaths which is more than 100x more than the reported COVID-19 death toll in Germany so far

4. just because someone tests positive for SARS-CoV-2 and died of pneumonia does not mean that they died because of SARS-CoV-2.

Seems to me he wants to be the Duesberg of Covid-19....
Reminds me of people like Dr Michael Behe who have a unique theory and they want to be the one person who discovered it. There must be a psychological syndrome behind it. Once in a while said hypotheses actually have validity (H-pylori, plate tectonics, Dr Snow's cholera and the Broad St water source). But except for those, the rest are crackpots. This guy is a friggin' crackpot.
 
The COVID Tracking Project

The COVID Tracking Project collects information from 50 US states, the District of Columbia, and 5 other U.S. territories to provide the most comprehensive testing data we can collect for the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2. We attempt to include positive and negative results, pending tests, and total people tested for each state or district currently reporting that data.
 
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When I see Zinc for any illness I get sketched, but this seems like its supposed to be legit

Is this a normally legit channel?

I really can't say about that channel since that's the first I've seen of it, however searching YT with "chloroquine covid-19" gives over a dozen results that seem legit.
 
But Iran v SK- is there a difference in areas under the curves, or just the time to peak? Are SKs stopped dying?

Just about. New cases have dropped and are still dropping, and they've had a very low mortality rate. Also, and interestingly, they have very few serious cases.

I've seen some YT videos discussing Chloroquine or Remdesivir together with Zinc to inhibit Covid-19. Here's an example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BIymfznD7YA

What do you guys think of this?

I've mentioned it a few times - chloroquine phosphate seems to be very useful, and has been tried with several different antivrials.

Remdesivir's been shown to have some pretty nasty side effects, but given the potential outcome of death, I imagine a little rectal bleeding isn't too bad.
____________________________________

Meanwhile, see if anyone can spot the problem here:

NZ's official position is that no community transmission has occurred in the country.

A man who flew from Auckland to Samoa to visit relatives is highly likely to have the disease...
 
I have not read this thread at all yet, so I apologise profusely if I am duplicating info, but i came across this paragraph on a Guardian article yesterday which has clarified my understanding to some degree:

"The coronavirus, officially SARS-CoV-2, is a virus, not a disease, and the disease it causes is COVID-19 (or coronavirus disease), deriving from CO(rona) VI(rus) D(isease)-(20)19. COVID-19 is also called “the coronavirus disease.” It’s not accurate to say “the virus COVID-19” (that’s the disease). Phrases to keep on hand: “COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus”; “the coronavirus, which causes COVID-19.”
 
"The coronavirus, officially SARS-CoV-2, is a virus, not a disease, and the disease it causes is COVID-19 (or coronavirus disease), deriving from CO(rona) VI(rus) D(isease)-(20)19. COVID-19 is also called “the coronavirus disease.” It’s not accurate to say “the virus COVID-19” (that’s the disease). Phrases to keep on hand: “COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus”; “the coronavirus, which causes COVID-19.”

I keep thinking it's something to do with crows.

Dave
 
I have not read this thread at all yet, so I apologise profusely if I am duplicating info, but i came across this paragraph on a Guardian article yesterday which has clarified my understanding to some degree:

"The coronavirus, officially SARS-CoV-2, is a virus, not a disease, and the disease it causes is COVID-19 (or coronavirus disease), deriving from CO(rona) VI(rus) D(isease)-(20)19. COVID-19 is also called “the coronavirus disease.” It’s not accurate to say “the virus COVID-19” (that’s the disease). Phrases to keep on hand: “COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus”; “the coronavirus, which causes COVID-19.”

Yes, this was mentioned in part 1 of this very long thread.
 
I've seen some YT videos discussing Chloroquine or Remdesivir together with Zinc to inhibit Covid-19. Here's an example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BIymfznD7YA

What do you guys think of this?


From Johns Hopkins:

Drugs currently under investigation[16]:
Remdesivir (Gilead; used to treat Ebola)
Currently under study in a trial in Wuhan; activity is seen in vitro with SARS-2-CoV, MERS-CoV (also including MERS-CoV primate studies).
Likely the most promising drug.
Chloroquine (or hydroxychloroquine) has been reported to have some efficacy in vivo and in COVID-19 pneumonia, the mechanism may be by interfering with cellular acidification in the phagolysosome.[8],[9]
ASC09/ritonavir, lopinavir/ritonavir, with or without umifenovir
ASC09/oseltamivir, ritonavir/oseltamivir, oseltamivir
Azvudine
Baloxavir marboxil/favipiravir and lopinavir/ritonavir in combination(s)
Camostat mesylate
Darunavir/cobicistat alone or with lopinavir/ritonavir and thymosin α1 in combination(s)
Interferon alfa-2b alone or in combination with lopinavir/ritonavir and ribavirin
Methylprednisolone
Camrelizumab and thymosin
Tocilizumab


No zink.
 
What I mean is that pushing the panic button too much might create a major economic crisis. Diminishing returns and all.

Yeah, panic is always a bad idea.

That said, a calm and rational implementation of what may seem drastic measures may not be.

Actually, the more I think about the UK response, the more I am of the opinion that it is a really well-thought-out and rational plan.

It has received some shrill criticism, but it makes sense to me, and if I am correct, this is what they are doing (bear in mind, this is largely my interpretation, and I could be wrong.):

The policy implementations are heavily influenced by the Nudge Unit, which is basically how to apply behavioural psychology to people's choices. The term that is used by its originators is "choice architecture". When people are faced with a choice, they most often resort to a default setting.

A lot of people have been demanding that the UK ban large scale sporting venues or have them played behind closed doors, shut down pubs and restaurants, lock down cities, and close schools. These ideas seem logical because it stops large scale congregations. However, they could have negative side effects as they might end up making people switch to default alternatives:


For example, in Paris and Spain, football games were played behind closed doors, so the fans took to the streets and the bars and the pubs and had impromptu drinking sessions. Result: Greater risk of infection

When cities and areas were locked down in Italy and (I think) in Spain, the residents just fled them and went to live with their relatives in the countryside. Result: Spreading of the virus and putting high-risk elderly people into contact

Close schools? Result: Working families send their kids to grandma.

What has the UK done differently?

I think, and this is really my assumption more than anything, they have tried to go stage by stage to change people's default settings.

First, they have pointed out who is at greatest risk and told them to self-isolate. They have been very clear not to have Sunday lunch with granny and grand dad. Try to keep them away. This means that if and when the schools close, the parents' first thought will not be to send them to granny because they already fear for granny's life.

Second, they have told people to stay away from pubs and restaurants and to stop social gatherings. This creates the default that going out drinking is a bad idea. This means that if and when the pubs and restaurants are formally closed, the first thing that strikes people is not to go out and drink on the streets.

As for sporting events, that has mostly been taken care of by venues themselves. Mostly they will have been hearing government warnings and unilaterally closing anyway.

I think (and hope) that overall it creates more compliance, because people's changing choice architecture makes them feel that they are the ones who made the decisions and they feel less resentful at being told what to do.

We shall have to see if it works.
 
It seems that more than half the critical cases in France are under 60.


It could be because they are much more likely to get infected. If you look at the number of infected persons in Denmark (Scroll down to: Aldersfordeling blandt de danske tilfælde = Age distribution of Danish cases).

40-49-year-olds will typically go skiing in the Alps for the winter holidays - in particular if they're relatively wealthy. The next graph: Her blev de bekræftede tilfælde smittet = Where the confirmed cases were infected (Austria and Italy).
And if you scroll back up a little to: Bekræftede tilfælde per 100.000 indbyggere = Number of confirmed cases per 100,000. The area with the highest number, Gentofte, slightly north of central Copenhagen, is the municipality of Copenhagen with the richest inhabitants, who can afford this luxury.
So at least in Denmark, the coronavirus was carried into the country by rich people. And the government refrained from forbidding this kind of holiday until it was too late. Much to the detriment of a lot of other people who could never afford to go skiing in Tyrol.
 
What a dumb name for a disease. It sounds like the name of a breakfast cereal.
Previous pandemics have had names like "Asian Flu", "Hong Kong Flu", "Spanish Flu" and "Russian Flu". The last two of those, despite their names, are also believed to have originated in China.

This time, the World Health Authority didn't want to antagonize China by giving the disease a Chinese or Asian name, so they chose the inoffensive 'COVID-19'

Here's a handy chart giving a nice visual representation of the history of pandemics.

History-of-Pandemics-Deadliest-1-scaled.jpg
 
It could be because they are much more likely to get infected. If you look at the number of infected persons in Denmark (Scroll down to: Aldersfordeling blandt de danske tilfælde = Age distribution of Danish cases).

40-49-year-olds will typically go skiing in the Alps for the winter holidays - in particular if they're relatively wealthy. The next graph: Her blev de bekræftede tilfælde smittet = Where the confirmed cases were infected (Austria and Italy).
And if you scroll back up a little to: Bekræftede tilfælde per 100.000 indbyggere = Number of confirmed cases per 100,000. The area with the highest number, Gentofte, slightly north of central Copenhagen, is the municipality of Copenhagen with the richest inhabitants, who can afford this luxury.
So at least in Denmark, the coronavirus was carried into the country by rich people. And the government refrained from forbidding this kind of holiday until it was too late. Much to the detriment of a lot of other people who could never afford to go skiing in Tyrol.

It looks like norwegian ski-tourists in Austria did much the same. According to this story, half the initial cases were traced back to a specific bartender in Austria who has a norwegian-sounding name:

https://www.aftenposten.no/verden/i/9vdVnM/5-mars-begynte-varslene-om-koronasmittede-skiturister-aa-renne-inn-det-tok-ti-dager-foer-oesterrike-stengte-skiheisene

I wonder if they are running out of tests. Only those who appear to need hospitalization are tested now.
 
My wife tells me that the guy in Japan infected with COVID 19 who ran round to all the different pubs in order to spread the coronavirus has...died of the disease.

Surely the least mourned victim of this, if it turns out to be true.
 
I'm impressed by the number of virologists and public health experts we have on this forum.
Here is my five point plan for defeating the virus.
If people would just listen to me we'd have this thing cracked within days.
Here is my theory on how the disease spread in China before anyone heard about it.
This is the demographic that is the main vector for the virus.
 
My great fear of the moment is that I don't see a path to normalcy from here.

Yes, someday schools will be open and I can go to restaurants again, and unemployment will be back to normal, but I don't see how we get from here to there in weeks, or even months, and if we don't get there in months, the economic fallout will last years.
 
Here's a handy chart giving a nice visual representation of the history of pandemics.


Yes, pandemics look extremely small when they have only just begun, don't they?
Some of us aren't surprised by that, but It's possible that others need a nice visual representation to see it.
 
Reminds me of people like Dr Michael Behe who have a unique theory and they want to be the one person who discovered it. There must be a psychological syndrome behind it. Once in a while said hypotheses actually have validity (H-pylori, plate tectonics, Dr Snow's cholera and the Broad St water source). But except for those, the rest are crackpots. This guy is a friggin' crackpot.

There are a lot more examples then that. The difference between crackpots and real scientists who develop novel theories that overturn a prevailing theory is that the scientists don't spend their time being "skeptical" of the established theory. They go out and do the work required to prove their own theory.
 
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It looks like norwegian ski-tourists in Austria did much the same. According to this story, half the initial cases were traced back to a specific bartender in Austria who has a norwegian-sounding name:

https://www.aftenposten.no/verden/i/9vdVnM/5-mars-begynte-varslene-om-koronasmittede-skiturister-aa-renne-inn-det-tok-ti-dager-foer-oesterrike-stengte-skiheisene


We should name it after him - at least here in Scandinavia! :)
I just don't get why Norwegians go skiing in the Alps! Many Danes go to Norway for this purpose. (They aren't always good at it and driving can be a problem, too.)

I wonder if they are running out of tests. Only those who appear to need hospitalization are tested now.


In Denmark it's official: Only those who need to be hospitalized will be tested to make sure that they don't end up with the other patients who don't have Covid-19.
 
There are a lot more examples then that. The difference between crackpots and real scientists who develop novel theories that overturn a prevailing theory is that the scientists don't spend their time being "skeptical" of the established theory. They go out and do the work required to prove their own theory.


At least you don't cater to the Popper nonsense that scientists are primarily trying to disprove their own theories.
 
My great fear of the moment is that I don't see a path to normalcy from here.

Yes, someday schools will be open and I can go to restaurants again, and unemployment will be back to normal, but I don't see how we get from here to there in weeks, or even months, and if we don't get there in months, the economic fallout will last years.


It will, yes, but that is the normalcy of capitalism. Think of 2007-08. It's been building up to this for the past decade.
 
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