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COVID-19 Numbers, Canada vs. The US

Horatius

NWO Kitty Wrangler
Horatius
Joined
May 9, 2006
Messages
29,691
I'm (mostly) copying a post I just made on Facebook here, because I'd like to see what you lot think.

*****

So, 12 days ago, I posted about the exponential nature of the numbers associated with this pandemic:

https://www.macleans.ca/society/hea...OO6bfwAS0tDw_PMD6MmzY9U5A5038YbWGSSnz2gMXO6Ow

At the time, I estimated the doubling time in Canada was about every 4 days, and so we'd have to wait 8 to 12 days to see if our efforts were having any effect. Well, there's good news and bad, folks.

The good news is, we can absolutely see a change in the Canadian numbers! You can see the graphs here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/canada/

They break it down into total cases, new cases, and deaths. In all three instances, you can see that the exponential curve has flattened out. We're still seeing new cases every day, but the number of new cases is roughly the same each day - the rate is not accelerating, which is really good news, compared to what we were seeing 12 days ago. Go Team Canada, Great Work!

The bad news comes when you compare the Canadian numbers to the US numbers. See the same data for the US here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

All three of those curves are still exponential. All Three. That is a critical observation, because it means the increasing number of new cases likely isn't just a matter of the US testing more people now. The number of deaths would likely be independent of the number of tests, and it is following the same type of curve. This tells me that the US efforts are not having the same effect as the Canadian efforts.

And since we're right next to them on this continent, that's probably not good news for us. At this point I don't want to try to predict exactly where this is going to go, because now it's outside the realm of science and math. Now it's down to people, and how they react, and I've given up trying to figure out what some of the people in charge down there are thinking. But if I were a betting man (and I am), I'd put my money on things getting a lot worse before they get better.

Hang on fellow Canucks, it's going to be a bumpy ride, despite all our best efforts.

*****


Comments?
 
I find none of this surprising, to be perfectly honest.


Pulling a number out of my arse, here's my guess on why that is:

70% of Canadians: "Scientists tell us to stay home, avoid other people, and wash our hands for as long as it takes to 'flatten the curve'. So that's what we'll do."

70% of Americans: "But, ma freedoms!"


Generally speaking, Americans tend to put a lot more emphasis on individual freedoms above all other things to the point of cutting off one's own nose, if necessary. It's a culture thing that's been ingrained since birth. So it doesn't really come as a surprise that so many of them are fighting against what scientists are advising.... they see it as an 'infringement' on their personal freedom to choose for themselves how they want to handle this situation. Near-sighted, rather than far-sighted.

So from that point if view, I see these US soldiers being on our border as a good thing. Keeping 'unwanteds' from crossing the border.... works in both directions. Thanks Trump. :thumbsup:






Unfortunately, SARS-CoV-2 (aka CoV-fefe) doesn't recognize borders.

So to reiterate your sentiments on the matter: ****
 
AnonyMoose said:
I find none of this surprising, to be perfectly honest.

Pulling a number out of my arse, here's my guess on why that is:

70% of Canadians: "Scientists tell us to stay home, avoid other people, and wash our hands for as long as it takes to 'flatten the curve'. So that's what we'll do."

70% of Americans: "But, ma freedoms!"
Click to expand...



Yeah, I'm not too surprised either. Just from watching the response to calls for action in the US, you could tell far too many people weren't taking it seriously enough to have the intended effect. From attending spring break and Mardi Gras, to various states refusing to issue shutdown orders, to various people talking about suing the government over these orders, it was obvious that not enough people were going to do the hard work needed to have a significant effect.

But at the end of the day, the virus will do what it will do, and those who refuse to act accordingly are going to pay a price, as will anyone else that they interact with.

This is what I posted on Facebook as a follow-up comment:

****

We're literally watching a world-wide, real-time experiment that compares the effects of different strategies on the spread of a pandemic. Click around on that world of meters site, and see. Compare the UK and Italy.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

As badly hit as Italy was at the beginning, you can see their trends starting to improve. Meanwhile the UK, which did almost nothing until this week, is still exponential. This isn't just Canada vs. the US, this is science based policy vs. making it up as you go along.

****

This pandemic is going to be studied by epidemiologists for literally centuries to come, if not longer. Let's hope the lessons we learn in the next few months stick long enough to be worth the price we're going to pay to learn them.
 
The only thing we can know for sure right now is that our countries will not be making the same mistakes again like they have with this pandemic. Unfortunately it will be at the cost of lives.

But then again... history shows us that this is just more of the same old, same old (nations making mistakes at the cost of the lives of its people). So we may very well be singing this same song yet again if any of us lives long enough to see the next pandemic hit our species.

****
 
Response to a post originally in the main COVID-19 thread.

ProBonoShill said:
You keep making this comparisons as if they're somehow valid. The U.S is a far more populated country with a smaller landmass than Canada. Using population density as a sole metric is simply ignorant.
Click to expand...
Except the population of Canada is concentrated along the Canada-US border. Go more than about 200 km north of the border and the population density drops off dramatically (exceptions: Saskatoon, Calgary, and Edmonton.) Therefore I'm comfortable with the comparison.

Let's compare populations the two largest cities in each country. The epicentre of the US outbreak is New York City. According to World population review, the population density of NYC is 26,403/square mile, or 10,194/km^2. The same site shows Toronto's density as 4,149/km^2, 40% less than New York's. As of April 2 (11:59pm), NYC has recorded 45,707 cases and 1,374 deaths. Toronto has seen 818 cases and 19 deaths. (Caution: the previous two sites are updated daily. Numbers quoted here are as of the time I wrote this post.)

This is where analysis gets tricky. I'm not experienced enough in statistics to know how a density will end up influencing outcomes. It's probably not linear like the 1:8.6 number I'm using for Canada:USA based on population, or a 1:3.5 number for Toronto:NYC based on population, or a 1:2.4 number for Toronto:NYC based on population density.

For Toronto:NYC the COVID-19 cases are running 1:55 and deaths are running 1:72. The NYC death ratio is twice that of Toronto's. It's interesting to note NYC's density is more than twice that of Toronto's, so density may have an effect here. ETA: Incorrect. See later post. This will likely be the subject of a few papers once the current emergency is over.

Not to mention on a worldwide scale our southern neighbours while not doing the best have a much better survival rate than several European nations which get touted here as being far better off healthwise.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Click to expand...
This point I can't argue with, aside from wondering if similar political differences are causing similar differences in death rates.

In my opinion, the major problem with my analysis is an uncertainty as to how far along the infection curve the US is compared to Italy and Canada. The first confirmed case in Italy was actually ten days after the first case in the US. However, the date to reach 100 cases was February 23 in Italy, March 4 in the US, and March 11 in Canada. The date to reach 100 deaths was March 4 in the Italy (10 days after 100 cases), March 18 in the USA, (14 days after 100 cases) and April 1 in Canada (21 days after 100 cases.)

These numbers actually support your contention that population density is a factor, in addition my idea that different approaches in between Canada and the US played a role.
 
Last edited:
The current situation in Canada

Public Health Canada's Coronavirus web site said:
Province, territory or other | Number of confirmed cases | Number of deaths |
British Columbia|
1,066​
|
25​
|
Alberta|
,754​
|
9​
|
Saskatchewan|
193​
|
3​
|
Manitoba|
127​
|
1​
|
Ontario|
2,392​
|
37​
|
Quebec|
4,611​
|
33​
|
New Brunswick|
81​
|
0​
|
Nova Scotia|
173​
|
0​
|
Prince Edward Island|
21​
|
0​
|
Newfoundland and Labrador|
175​
|
1​
|
Yukon|
8​
|
0​
|
Northwest Territories|
2​
|
0​
|
Nunavut|
0​
|
0​
|
Repatriated travellers|
13​
|
0​
|
Total |
9,613​
|
109​
|
Click to expand...
Confirmed cases are up 13% from yesterday (from 8,548); deaths are up 14% (from 96).


The latest points covered by CBC News

Now that I'm posting this report in an area that's not likely to be viewed by as many people, I've decided to drop this section. It took a fair amount of effort to put together. I'll reconsider if I get requests to restore it.


Growth curve

Date | Cases | Change
2020-03-13|
155​
|
2020-03-16|
440​
|
183.9%​
|
2020-03-18|
656​
|
49.1%​
|
2020-03-19|
873​
|
33.1%​
|
2020-03-20|
926​
|
6.1%​
|
2020-03-21|
1,081​
|
16.7%​
|
2020-03-22|
1,471​
|
36.1%​
|
2020-03-23|
2,091​
|
42.1%​
|
2020-03-24|
2,792​
|
33.5%​
|
2020-03-25|
3,409​
|
22.1%​
|
2020-03-26|
4,043​
|
18.6%​
|
2020-03-27|
4,689​
|
16.0%​
|
2020-03-28|
5,425​
|
15.7%​
|
2020-03-29|
6,258​
|
15.4%​
|
2020-03-30|
7,437​
|
18.8%​
|
2020-03-31|
8,548​
|
14.9%​
|
2020-04-01|
9,613​
|
12.5%​
|
The curve is showing continued signs of flattening out.


Canada vs the USA. Because Canada's population is 1/8.6 that of the States, typically ratios for raw numbers in many areas run 1:8.6 (or 10 to 86) for Canada:USA.

The source for Tested is Wikipedia. The source for Confirmed cases and Deaths is also Wikipedia. That page is often more up-to-date than the Canadian government page, meaning the numbers for confirmed cases and deaths may differ from what I posted above.

Metric | Canada | Expected US number based on 1:8.6 ratio | Actual US Number | Actual Canada:US ratio | Yesterday's ratio
COVID-19 tests |
256,933​
|
2,209,623​
|
1,230,519​
|
1:4.7​
|
1:4.5​
|
COVID-19 cases |
9,731​
|
83,687​
|
216,362​
|
1:22​
|
1:22​
|
COVID-19 deaths |
111​
|
955​
|
5,133​
|
1:46​
|
1:35​
|

Observations:
  • The US is slowly but surely ramping up its testing
  • The ratio for cases in Canada compared to the USA remains steady at 1:22
  • The "death gap" widened to 1:46 (it was 1:35 yesterday), but that ratio is highy dependent on the number of deaths in Canada. If the number of Canadian deaths takes a jump the gap narrows again.
 
Last edited:
Again as I expressed in the other thread simple 10:1 comparisons with regards to the U.S is foolhardy at best.

What parameters are at use?

Gun Ownership?

Pop Density?

Occupants per household?

Average age?

Soda Drinkers?

Poutine consumption?

Ice skaters vs dune buggy pilots?

I could on forever.

How many NHL players are Canadian?

How many PGA Golfers are American?

Grammy Winners?

Nobel Peace prize?

Get the point?
 
ProBonoShill has challenged my assumption that the infection and morality rate differences between Canada and the US are due only to faster and more concise action on the part of the Canadian government. ProBonoShill notes that Canada's population density is much lower than the States, which is true to a point. I'm not sure what the density numbers would be if you took into account that a considerable percentage of Canada's population lives in a narrow strip of about 200 kilometres from the American border.

So I did some analysis on two major population centres: Toronto (population 6,196,731) and New York City (population 8,398,748.) Now, this may not be a fair comparison because NYC is the hardest hit city in the US. So what are the numbers as of today?

  • Toronto deaths: 19, or 0.3 per 100,000 population
  • New York City deaths: 1,374, or 16.3 per 100,000 population

NYC's rate is 48 times that of Toronto's. Is population density solely responsible for this?

Another comparison often made is Vancouver, BC (metro area population 2,463,431; 855/km^2) and Seattle, WA (metro area population 3,939,363; 185/km^2; both from Wikipedia.) Both cities are major gateways to international travel. However, it's possible the virus made it to Seattle before it got to Vancouver.

  • Vancouver deaths: 21, or 0.85 100,000 population
  • Seattle deaths: 164, or 4.16 per 100,000 population
King County's death rate is 4.8 times that of Vancouver's, despite having a much lower population density.

Admittedly these are two of the worst hit areas in the States, but I'm also comparing them to the two hardest hit areas in Canada.

Given that the majority of deaths are occurring in cities (because that's where the virus has the most opportunity to spread) and Canadian cities are faring better than American ones, do geography and population density play that much or a role in the differing numbers between Canada and the United States?
 
Last edited:
It is a relatively small area in NY/NJ that has the bulk of the US cases (compared to the continental landmass!). Last I looked it was 100,000 cases just in that area. It skews the result.

The rest of the cases are spread out in pockets across the country. Canada has big cities and small towns just like the rest of the US, but there is only one mega city- NYC... and it is uniquely qualified to be a superspreader.

Take out NY and then compare again. Does the comparison still hold for the rest of the states?

I'm not saying the US is doing a good job...I know Calif has had a dismal response, testing just 900 of every million- and that is after we ramped up!. (It might actually be the worst rate in the country.) I am of the belief that weather/sun plays a role so I think southern areas will be luckier despite all the awful mismanagement.

California has only slightly more people than Canada, but I wouldn't compare the 2 because I think our latitude and location gives us an advantage. Our deaths are higher now, but may end up less than Canada, but not because of anything we did better.
 
Last edited:
ProBonoShill said:
Again as I expressed in the other thread simple 10:1 comparisons with regards to the U.S is foolhardy at best.

What parameters are at use?

Gun Ownership?

Pop Density?

Occupants per household?

Average age?

Soda Drinkers?

Poutine consumption?

Ice skaters vs dune buggy pilots?

I could on forever.

How many NHL players are Canadian?

How many PGA Golfers are American?

Grammy Winners?

Nobel Peace prize?

Get the point?
Click to expand...
To a degree, yes. But I'm not going to do your research for you. How about you hit Wikipedia and DuckDuckGo and check out the numbers for yourself?
 
Sherkeu said:
It is a relatively small area in NY/NJ that has the bulk of the US cases (compared to the continental landmass!). Last I looked it was 100,000 cases just in that area. It skews the result.

The rest of the cases are spread out in pockets across the country. Canada has big cities and small towns just like the rest of the US, but there is only one mega city- NYC... and it is uniquely qualified to be a superspreader.

Take out NY and then compare again. Does the comparison still hold for the rest of the states?
Click to expand...

Interesting point. According to Worldometer, New York and New Jersey combined have 106,156 cases and 2,574 deaths.

Totals, including New York and New Jersy

Metric | Canada | Expected US number based on 1:8.6 ratio | Actual US Number | Actual Canada:US ratio |
COVID-19 cases |
9,731​
|
83,687​
|
216,362​
|
1:22​
|
COVID-19 deaths |
111​
|
955​
|
5,133​
|
1:46​
|

Totals without the states of New York and New Jersey

Metric | Canada | Expected US number based on 1:8.6 ratio | Adjusted US Number | Actual Canada:US ratio |
COVID-19 cases |
9,731​
|
83,687​
|
110,2206​
|
1:11.8​
|
COVID-19 deaths |
111​
|
955​
|
2,559​
|
1:23.1​
||

Removing that enormous cluster on the densly populated eastern seaboard certainly helps the US numbers, but they're still not that great when compared with Canada's.

Totals without New York City (45,707 cases and 1,374 deaths)

Metric | Canada | Expected US number based on 1:8.6 ratio | Adjusted US Number | Actual Canada:US ratio |
COVID-19 cases |
9,731​
|
83,687​
|
170,655​
|
1:17.5​
|
COVID-19 deaths |
111​
|
955​
|
3,394​
|
1:30.6​
||

Even after taking out the "super-spreader" megacity, the death rate for the US overall compares poorly with Canada's: USA 10.3 per 1,000,000 population; Canada 2.9 per 1,000,000 population. (When NYC is included, the US death rate is 15.5 per million.)


I'm not saying the US is doing a good job...I know Calif has had a dismal response, testing just 900 of every million- and that is after we ramped up!. (It might actually be the worst rate in the country.) I am of the belief that weather/sun plays a role so I think southern areas will be luckier despite all the awful mismanagement.

California has only slightly more people than Canada, but I wouldn't compare the 2 because I think our latitude and location gives us an advantage. Our deaths are higher now, but may end up less than Canada, but not because of anything we did better.
Click to expand...
Correct; the population ratio of Canada:California (is that CA:CA? :p) is 1:0.96, and your winters are much nicer! Right now the death count is running (Canada:California)=1:1.7, which is much better than the overall US numbers, with or without NY/NJ.
 
Last edited:
Blue-

While you edit, please look at the USA adjusted death count. I think it was under by about 1000.
 
The density of the population in NYC is remarkable. They reside like sardines in a can.

I have visited a few large cities in Canada (Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto) but the apparent "density of people" is not comparable to New York City.
 
my non-expert opinion on comparing different countries or even different states/provinces with a country:

Due to inconsistencies in when/where people are tested or not, I think a direct comparison (except perhaps by magnitude) of the numbers of "confirmed cases" isn't particularly helpful. Perhaps comparison by number of deaths is more appropriate, but then we have other complications like Italy just giving up on patients with lower chance of survival giving an inflated % compared to other places... this all seems very complicated.
 
Blue Mountain said:
  • Vancouver deaths: 21, or 0.85 100,000 population
  • Seattle deaths: 164, or 4.16 per 100,000 population
Click to expand...

Regarding the Vancouver deaths, half of them were in one senior care centre in North Van. It's a good example of how contagious it is, and how vulnerable seniors are.
 
pharphis said:
my non-expert opinion on comparing different countries or even different states/provinces with a country:

Due to inconsistencies in when/where people are tested or not, I think a direct comparison (except perhaps by magnitude) of the numbers of "confirmed cases" isn't particularly helpful. Perhaps comparison by number of deaths is more appropriate, but then we have other complications like Italy just giving up on patients with lower chance of survival giving an inflated % compared to other places... this all seems very complicated.
Click to expand...

Very much this. Testing varies considerably between districts. Here in Canada, Quebec has a much higher number of cases because they're testing more aggressively and declaring a "case" without waiting for confirmation from the national microbiology laboratory. However, the number of deaths isn't way out of line from the other provinces.
 
The current situation in Canada

Public Health Canada's Coronavirus web site said:
Province, territory or other | Number of confirmed cases | Number of deaths |
British Columbia|
1,066​
|
31​
|
Alberta|
871​
|
13​
|
Saskatchewan|
206​
|
3​
|
Manitoba|
,1067​
|
1​
|
Ontario|
2,793​
|
53​
|
Quebec|
5,518​
|
36​
|
New Brunswick|
91​
|
0​
|
Nova Scotia|
193​
|
0​
|
Prince Edward Island|
22​
|
0​
|
Newfoundland and Labrador|
183​
|
1​
|
Yukon|
6​
|
0​
|
Northwest Territories|
2​
|
0​
|
Nunavut|
0​
|
0​
|
Repatriated travellers|
130​
|
0​
|
Total |
1,1131​
|
138​
|
Click to expand...
Confirmed cases are up 16% from yesterday (from 9,613); deaths are up 27% (from 109).


Growth curve

Date | Cases | Change
2020-03-13|
155​
|
2020-03-16|
440​
|
183.9%​
|
2020-03-18|
656​
|
49.1%​
|
2020-03-19|
873​
|
33.1%​
|
2020-03-20|
926​
|
6.1%​
|
2020-03-21|
1,081​
|
16.7%​
|
2020-03-22|
1,471​
|
36.1%​
|
2020-03-23|
2,091​
|
42.1%​
|
2020-03-24|
2,792​
|
33.5%​
|
2020-03-25|
3,409​
|
22.1%​
|
2020-03-26|
4,043​
|
18.6%​
|
2020-03-27|
4,689​
|
16.0%​
|
2020-03-28|
5,425​
|
15.7%​
|
2020-03-29|
6,258​
|
15.4%​
|
2020-03-30|
7,437​
|
18.8%​
|
2020-03-31|
8,548​
|
14.9%​
|
2020-04-01|
9,613​
|
12.5%​
|
2020-04-02|
11,131​
|
15.8%​
|
Currently the growth curve is unsteady and hovering around the 15.5% mark. Not good, in my opinion, but I think Canada is now at the high point of the curve: we're seeing cases that have been incubating for about two weeks. Two weeks ago is about the time various provinces began more aggressive measures to slow the spread by closing schools and businesses, and cancelling events. Some provinces were slower to do this than others.


Canada vs the USA. Because Canada's population is 1/8.6 that of the States, typically ratios for raw numbers in many areas run 1:8.6 (or 10 to 87) for Canada:USA.

The source for Tested is Wikipedia. The source for Confirmed cases and Deaths is also Wikipedia. That page is often more up-to-date than the Canadian government page, meaning the numbers for confirmed cases and deaths may differ from what I posted above.

Metric | Canada | Expected US number based on 1:8.6 ratio | Actual US Number | Actual Canada:US ratio | Yesterday's ratio
COVID-19 tests|
280,550​
|
2,412,730​
|
1,350,219​
|
1:4.8​
|
1:4.7​
|
COVID-19 cases|
11,268​
|
96,905​
|
245,175​
|
1:22​
|
1:22​
|
COVID-19 deaths|
138​
|
1,187​
|
6,059​
|
1:44​
|
1:46​
|

Per million population
Metric | Canada | United States
COVID-19 tests|
7,403​
|
4,114​
|
COVID-19 cases|
298.6​
|
740.7​
|
COVID-19 deaths|
3.7​
|
18.3​
|
 
Last edited:
pharphis said:
my non-expert opinion on comparing different countries or even different states/provinces with a country:

Due to inconsistencies in when/where people are tested or not, I think a direct comparison (except perhaps by magnitude) of the numbers of "confirmed cases" isn't particularly helpful. Perhaps comparison by number of deaths is more appropriate, but then we have other complications like Italy just giving up on patients with lower chance of survival giving an inflated % compared to other places... this all seems very complicated.
Click to expand...

I agree wholeheartedly about confirmed cases (in the UK, for example, only people admitted to hospital are being tested - a few exceptional cases aside).

But while I agree that there are complicating factors to using deaths as an indicator of how deadly the disease is in and of itself, it can be useful as an indicator of how well different countries are coping. Healthcare systems being overwhelmed and therefore people dying who otherwise would have lived would be a part of that.

Of course, even those figures won't be accurate. Not everybody who dies will be tested, and some authorities are failing to count some deaths. I've also seen reports of deliberate underreporting of deaths from both China and the US. And that's not to mention the increased death toll from fewer available doctors to take care of other patients and emergencies, suicides, vulnerable people left without care, etc.

So no figures are perfect, and none of them really encapsulate what's going on in the crisis, but I don't think it's unreasonable to compare countries by how many reported deaths there are.

Rate can also be instructional as a way of indicating how well measures to combat the virus are working (or how well the measures in place 4 weeks previously are working). Looking at the first chart here shows that the number of deaths in the US is doubling every 3 days, whereas in Canada it's doubling every 4 days. That shows that the crisis is less severe in Canada, even though things like population density will be a factor, rather than it purely being down to measures consciously taken. Although, of course, things like population density should factor into any government's response to a crisis such as this.
 
Squeegee Beckenheim said:
Of course, even those figures won't be accurate. Not everybody who dies will be tested, and some authorities are failing to count some deaths. I've also seen reports of deliberate underreporting of deaths from both China and the US. And that's not to mention the increased death toll from fewer available doctors to take care of other patients and emergencies, suicides, vulnerable people left without care, etc.
Click to expand...



I'm also increasing concerned that the information we're getting just isn't very reliable, because of failures in the reporting systems. There was a report the other day that deaths as officially reported in Ontario may be low by a factor of two:

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/number-o...ly-double-what-ontario-is-reporting-1.4877627


Trying to make predictions or comparisons with bad data is a fools game. And the various numbers I've seen seem noisy enough to support the hypothesis that we're getting bad data. If you look at the daily death totals for Canada the last several days, you get a weird pattern of a couple of low days interspersed with one high day:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/canada/

That looks to me like some people dying on one day, but not being reported until a day or two later. That makes it hard to really get a feel for how the numbers are actually evolving. It looks like things are getting worse, but exactly how much worse is hard to determine.
 
Horatius said:
I'm also increasing concerned that the information we're getting just isn't very reliable, because of failures in the reporting systems. There was a report the other day that deaths as officially reported in Ontario may be low by a factor of two:

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/number-o...ly-double-what-ontario-is-reporting-1.4877627


Trying to make predictions or comparisons with bad data is a fools game. And the various numbers I've seen seem noisy enough to support the hypothesis that we're getting bad data. If you look at the daily death totals for Canada the last several days, you get a weird pattern of a couple of low days interspersed with one high day:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/canada/

That looks to me like some people dying on one day, but not being reported until a day or two later. That makes it hard to really get a feel for how the numbers are actually evolving. It looks like things are getting worse, but exactly how much worse is hard to determine.
Click to expand...

Sure. But this kind of data really shouldn't be used for anything other than general trends, anyway. Looking at that data you can still see the general trend, even if the daily figures aren't reliable. And you shouldn't really be doing anything more than that, anyway.

Besides which, those numbers are currently low enough that you'd expect there to be a lot of fluctuation. When you're talking about 1 death going up to 4 and then back down again to 2 then there's nothing unusual about that. Even 5 to 24 to 12 isn't hugely anomalous, I'd have thought. Even 13 to 59 could be statistical noise.
 
Horatius said:
I'm also increasing concerned that the information we're getting just isn't very reliable, because of failures in the reporting systems. There was a report the other day that deaths as officially reported in Ontario may be low by a factor of two:

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/number-o...ly-double-what-ontario-is-reporting-1.4877627


Trying to make predictions or comparisons with bad data is a fools game. And the various numbers I've seen seem noisy enough to support the hypothesis that we're getting bad data. If you look at the daily death totals for Canada the last several days, you get a weird pattern of a couple of low days interspersed with one high day:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/canada/

That looks to me like some people dying on one day, but not being reported until a day or two later. That makes it hard to really get a feel for how the numbers are actually evolving. It looks like things are getting worse, but exactly how much worse is hard to determine.
Click to expand...
The pattern you mentioned seems to be clustered around weekends, with the jump being recorded on Monday. My hypothesis is some (but not all?) deaths from Saturday and Sunday aren't included in provincial and federal government numbers until the deaths are recorded by the provincial vital statistics offices.
 
I'm going to note here that the confirmed first case was reported in the States on January 15, while the first confirmed case in Canada was January 25—a full ten days later. I'm saying "confirmed" because it's possible there were unconfirmed cases in both countries prior to those dates.

Worst case scenario is Canada's numbers are looking so much better compared to the States only because we're ten days behind American curve. We won't really know until at least the end of April and quite possibly some time in June.
 
Blue Mountain said:
I'm going to note here that the confirmed first case was reported in the States on January 15, while the first confirmed case in Canada was January 25—a full ten days later. I'm saying "confirmed" because it's possible there were unconfirmed cases in both countries prior to those dates.

Worst case scenario is Canada's numbers are looking so much better compared to the States only because we're ten days behind American curve. We won't really know until at least the end of April and quite possibly some time in June.
Click to expand...

I wonder how many of people in the hot zone traveled north before Trudeau closed the border? (perhaps it was this influx in those few days that made Canada go 'oh crap! better close this down!'.)

Of course, Canadian citizens were always allowed to return. If there were a sizable amount, you'll see those extra cases begin to pop up in hospitals soon.
Actually, right around now.
 
Last edited:
William Parcher said:
The density of the population in NYC is remarkable. They reside like sardines in a can.

I have visited a few large cities in Canada (Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto) but the apparent "density of people" is not comparable to New York City.
Click to expand...
Not by worldwide standards; it's not in the top fifty cities by population density.
 
Sherkeu said:
I wonder how many of people in the hot zone traveled north before Trudeau closed the border? (perhaps it was this influx in those few days that made Canada go 'oh crap! better close this down!'.)

Of course, Canadian citizens were always allowed to return. If there were a sizable amount, you'll see those extra cases begin to pop up in hospitals soon.
Actually, right around now.
Click to expand...



That is certainly a factor. "Snowbirds" are a major phenomenon, and lots of them were in hard-hit areas like Florida, and had to drive all the way home. And lots of them were doing that in the first week or two after they started closing everything. They've been advised to self-isolate, but if they're already infected, that will show up in the numbers.

It's all a bit of a mess.

There was an interesting article written by someone caught up in all that:

https://www.macleans.ca/society/lif...y-2400-km-drive-back-to-the-sanity-of-canada/
 
The current situation in Canada

Public Health Canada's Coronavirus web site said:
Province, territory or other | Number of confirmed cases | Number of deaths |
British Columbia|
1,174​
|
35​
|
Alberta|
1,075​
|
18​
|
Saskatchewan|
220​
|
3​
|
Manitoba|
182​
|
2​
|
Ontario|
3,255​
|
67​
|
Quebec|
6,101​
|
61​
|
New Brunswick|
95​
|
0​
|
Nova Scotia|
207​
|
0​
|
Prince Edward Island|
22​
|
0​
|
Newfoundland and Labrador|
183​
|
2​
|
Yukon|
6​
|
0​
|
Northwest Territories|
4​
|
0​
|
Nunavut|
0​
|
0​
|
Repatriated travellers|
13​
|
0​
|
Total |
12,537​
|
187​
|
Click to expand...
Confirmed cases are up 13% from yesterday (from 11,131); deaths are up 36% (from 138).


Growth curve

Date | Cases | Change
2020-03-13|
155​
|
2020-03-16|
440​
|
183.9%​
|
2020-03-18|
656​
|
49.1%​
|
2020-03-19|
873​
|
33.1%​
|
2020-03-20|
926​
|
6.1%​
|
2020-03-21|
1,081​
|
16.7%​
|
2020-03-22|
1,471​
|
36.1%​
|
2020-03-23|
2,091​
|
42.1%​
|
2020-03-24|
2,792​
|
33.5%​
|
2020-03-25|
3,409​
|
22.1%​
|
2020-03-26|
4,043​
|
18.6%​
|
2020-03-27|
4,689​
|
16.0%​
|
2020-03-28|
5,425​
|
15.7%​
|
2020-03-29|
6,258​
|
15.4%​
|
2020-03-30|
7,437​
|
18.8%​
|
2020-03-31|
8,548​
|
14.9%​
|
2020-04-01|
9,613​
|
12.5%​
|
2020-04-02|
11,131​
|
15.8%​
|
2020-04-03|
12,537​
|
12.6%​
|


Canada vs the USA. Because Canada's population is 1/8.6 that of the States, typically ratios for raw numbers in many areas run 1:8.6 (or 10 to 86) for Canada:USA.

The source for Tested is Wikipedia. The source for Confirmed cases and Deaths is also Wikipedia. That page is often more up-to-date than the Canadian government page, meaning the numbers for confirmed cases and deaths may differ from what I posted above.

Metric | Canada | Expected US number based on 1:8.6 ratio | Actual US Number | Actual Canada:US ratio | Yesterday's ratio
COVID-19 tests |
302,745​
|
2,603,607​
|
1,469,251​
|
1:4.9​
|
1:4.8​
|
COVID-19 cases |
12,531​
|
107,767​
|
277,491​
|
1:22​
|
1:22​
|
COVID-19 deaths |
187​
|
1,608​
|
7,144​
|
1:38​
|
1:44​
|

Per million population
Metric | Canada | United States
COVID-19 tests |
7,989​
|
4,476​
|
COVID-19 cases |
322​
|
838​
|
COVID-19 deaths |
5.0​
|
21.5​
|
 
The current situation in Canada

Public Health Canada's Coronavirus web site said:
Province, territory or other | Number of confirmed cases | Number of deaths |
British Columbia|
1,203​
|
38​
|
Alberta|
1,075​
|
18​
|
Saskatchewan|
231 3​
|
Manitoba|
194​
|
2​
|
Ontario|
3,630​
|
94​
|
Quebec|
6,997​
|
75​
|
New Brunswick|
98​
|
0​
|
Nova Scotia|
236​
|
0​
|
Prince Edward Island|
22​
|
0​
|
Newfoundland and Labrador|
195​
|
​
|
Yukon|
6​
|
0​
|
Northwest Territories|
4​
|
0​
|
Nunavut|
0​
|
0​
|
Repatriated travellers|
13​
|
0​
|
Total |
13,904​
|
231​
|
Click to expand...
Confirmed cases are up 11% from yesterday (from 12,537); deaths are up 24% (from 187).


Growth curve

Date | Cases | Change
2020-03-13|
155​
|
2020-03-16|
440​
|
183.9%​
|
2020-03-18|
656​
|
49.1%​
|
2020-03-19|
873​
|
33.1%​
|
2020-03-20|
926​
|
6.1%​
|
2020-03-21|
1,081​
|
16.7%​
|
2020-03-22|
1,471​
|
36.1%​
|
2020-03-23|
2,091​
|
42.1%​
|
2020-03-24|
2,792​
|
33.5%​
|
2020-03-25|
3,409​
|
22.1%​
|
2020-03-26|
4,043​
|
18.6%​
|
2020-03-27|
4,689​
|
16.0%​
|
2020-03-28|
5,425​
|
15.7%​
|
2020-03-29|
6,258​
|
15.4%​
|
2020-03-30|
7,437​
|
18.8%​
|
2020-03-31|
8,548​
|
14.9%​
|
2020-04-01|
9,613​
|
12.5%​
|
2020-04-02|
11,131​
|
15.8%​
|
2020-04-03|
12,537​
|
12.6%​
|
2020-04-04|
13,904​
|
10.9%​
|


Canada vs the USA. Because Canada's population is 1/8.6 that of the States, typically ratios for raw numbers in many areas run 1:8.6 (or 10 to 86) for Canada:USA.

The source for Tested is Wikipedia. The source for Confirmed cases and Deaths is also Wikipedia. That page is often more up-to-date than the Canadian government page, meaning the numbers for confirmed cases and deaths may differ from what I posted above.

Metric | Canada | Expected US number based on 1:8.6 ratio | Actual US Number | Actual Canada:US ratio | Yesterday's ratio
COVID-19 tests |
317,972​
|
2,734,559​
|
1,639,380​
|
1:5.2​
|
1:4.9​
|
COVID-19 cases |
14,000​
|
120,400​
|
310,016​
|
1:22​
|
1:22​
|
COVID-19 deaths |
233​
|
2,004​
|
8,438​
|
1:36​
|
1:38​
|
What I find curious about the above table is that the United States has been ramping up its testing, but at the same time the number of cases compared to Canada remains steady at 1:22.

Per million population
Metric | Canada | United States
COVID-19 tests |
8,391​
|
4,994​
|
COVID-19 cases |
371​
|
936​
|
COVID-19 deaths |
6.2​
|
25.5​
|
 
A tale of two curves

One thing I've been concerned about when comparing the Canadian case count to the American count is the possibility Canada is up to ten days behind the American curve based on when the first case was seen in each country. So this evening I got the count data from the respective Wikipedia articles and created a side-by side comparison table.

Date | Canadian cases | (Change) | American cases | (change)
2020-01-21 |
​
| |
1​
| n.a. |
2020-01-22 |
​
| |
1​
| = |
2020-01-23 |
​
| |
1​
| = |
2020-01-24 |
​
| |
2​
| +100% |
2020-01-25 |
​
| |
3​
| +50% |
2020-01-26 |
​
| |
5​
| +67% |
2020-01-27 |
1​
| n.a. |
5​
| = |
2020-01-28 |
2​
| +100% |
5​
| = |
2020-01-29 |
2​
| = |
5​
| = |
2020-01-30 |
2​
| = |
6​
| +20% |
2020-01-31 |
3​
| +33% |
7​
| +17% |
2020-02-01 |
4​
| = |
8​
| +14% |
2020-02-02 |
4​
| = |
11​
| +38% |
2020-02-03 |
4​
| = |
11​
| = |
2020-02-04 |
5​
| +25% |
11​
| = |
2020-02-05 |
5​
| = |
12​
| +9.1% |
2020-02-06 |
7​
| +40% |
12​
| = |
2020-02-07 |
7​
| = |
12​
| = |
2020-02-08 |
7​
| = |
12​
| = |
2020-02-09 |
7​
| = |
12​
| = |
2020-02-10 |
7​
| = |
12​
| = |
2020-02-11 |
7​
| = |
12​
| = |
2020-02-12 |
7​
| = |
12​
| = |
2020-02-13 |
7​
| = |
12​
| = |
2020-02-14 |
8​
| +14% |
12​
| = |
2020-02-15 |
8​
| = |
12​
| = |
2020-02-16 |
8​
| = |
12​
| = |
2020-02-17 |
8​
| = |
12​
| = |
2020-02-18 |
8​
| = |
12​
| = |
2020-02-19 |
8​
| = |
12​
| = |
2020-02-20 |
9​
| +13% |
14​
| +17% |
2020-02-21 |
9​
| = |
14​
| = |
2020-02-22 |
9​
| = |
14​
| = |
2020-02-23 |
10​
| +11% |
14​
| = |
2020-02-24 |
11​
| +10% |
14​
| = |
2020-02-25 |
11​
| = |
14​
| = |
2020-02-26 |
12​
| +9% |
15​
| +7.1% |
2020-02-27 |
14​
| +17% |
15​
| = |
2020-02-28 |
16​
| +14% |
19​
| +27% |
2020-02-29 |
20​
| +25% |
24​
| +26% |
2020-03-01 |
24​
| +20% |
42​
| +75% |
2020-03-02 |
27​
| +13% |
57​
| +36% |
2020-03-03 |
33​
| +22% |
85​
| +49% |
2020-03-04 |
34​
| +3% |
111​
| +31% |
2020-03-05 |
48​
| +41% |
175​
| +58% |
2020-03-06 |
54​
| +13% |
252​
| +44% |
2020-03-07 |
60​
| +11% |
353​
| +40% |
2020-03-08 |
67​
| +12% |
497​
| +41% |
2020-03-09 |
79​
| +18% |
645​
| +30% |
2020-03-10 |
97​
| +23% |
936​
| +45% |
2020-03-11 |
118​
| +22% |
1,205​
| +29% |
2020-03-12 |
159​
| +35% |
1,598​
| +33% |
2020-03-13 |
198​
| +25% |
2,163​
| +35% |
2020-03-14 |
254​
| +28% |
2,825​
| +31% |
2020-03-15 |
338​
| +33% |
3,501​
| +24% |
2020-03-16 |
441​
| +30% |
4,373​
| +25% |
2020-03-17 |
598​
| +36% |
5,664​
| +30% |
2020-03-18 |
728​
| +22% |
8,074​
| +43% |
2020-03-19 |
873​
| +20% |
12,022​
| +49% |
2020-03-20 |
1,088​
| +25% |
17,439​
| +45% |
2020-03-21 |
1,331​
| +22% |
23,710​
| +36% |
2020-03-22 |
1,472​
| +11% |
32,341​
| +36% |
2020-03-23 |
2,091​
| +42% |
42,751​
| +32% |
2020-03-24 |
2,819​
| +35% |
52,690​
| +23% |
2020-03-25 |
3,409​
| +21% |
64,916​
| +23% |
2020-03-26 |
4,043​
| +19% |
81,966​
| +26% |
2020-03-27 |
4,757​
| +18% |
101,012​
| +23% |
2020-03-28 |
5,655​
| +19% |
121,105​
| +20% |
2020-03-29 |
6,320​
| +12% |
140,223​
| +16% |
2020-03-30 |
7,448​
| +18% |
160,686​
| +15% |
2020-03-31 |
8,591​
| +15% |
186,082​
| +16% |
2020-04-01 |
9,731​
| +13% |
212,814​
| +14% |
2020-04-02 |
11,285​
| +16% |
241,626​
| +14% |
2020-04-03 |
12,549​
| +11% |
273,808​
| +13%

Things were pretty comparable between the two countries at the start. In fact, Canada showed a higher growth rate for the first month, from the initial case on January 27 all the way through to February 27, when the US numbers took off, and they haven't looked back ever since.

I suspect the different growth rates in February are a direct result of different testing strategies. Canada got on testing right away and stated testing probable cases and (possibly) contact tracing. By contrast, the US fumbled its testing all through February with a faulty test designed by the CDC and strict testing requirements. The new test was made available on February 29, with a ramp-up through March 12 as commercial labs were given the green light to test.

I still can't conclude that Canada and the US are on the same growth curve. I know Canada has been doing a lot more testing right from the start, so I suspect the early numbers for Canada's case count are more accurate than the States'. What I am seeing is that once the US got its act together on testing the numbers exploded. For the past week, though, the daily percentage increase between the two countries has been roughly parallel. That seems to say we're on the same curve.

I don't know how much of the blame for the CDC fumble can be allocated solely to the Trump administration. We can't rewind the clock to see what the outcome would have been had Hillary Clinton been in charge.
 
Last edited:
The current situation in Canada

Public Health Canada's Coronavirus web site said:
Province, territory or other | Number of confirmed cases | Number of deaths |
British Columbia|
1,203​
|
38​
|
Alberta|
1,250​
|
23​
|
Saskatchewan|
249​
|
3​
|
Manitoba|
203​
|
2​
|
Ontario|
4,038​
|
119​
|
Quebec|
7,944​
|
94​
|
New Brunswick|
101​
|
0​
|
Nova Scotia|
262​
|
0​
|
Prince Edward Island|
22​
|
0​
|
Newfoundland and Labrador|
217​
|
1​
|
Yukon|
6​
|
0​
|
Northwest Territories|
4​
|
0​
|
Nunavut|
0​
|
0​
|
Repatriated travellers|
13​
|
0​
|
Total |
15,512​
|
280​
|
Click to expand...
Confirmed cases are up 11.6% from yesterday (from 13,904); deaths are up 21% (from 231).


Growth curve

Date | Cases | Change
2020-03-09|
79​
|
2020-03-10|
98​
|
24.1%​
|
2020-03-11|
119​
|
21.4%​
|
2020-03-12|
151​
|
26.9%​
|
2020-03-13|
201​
|
33.1%​
|
2020-03-14|
260​
|
29.4%​
|
2020-03-15|
350​
|
34.6%​
|
2020-03-16|
440​
|
25.7%​
|
2020-03-17|
575​
|
30.7%​
|
2020-03-18|
656​
|
14.1%​
|
2020-03-19|
873​
|
33.1%​
|
2020-03-20|
926​
|
6.1%​
|
2020-03-21|
1,081​
|
16.7%​
|
2020-03-22|
1,471​
|
36.1%​
|
2020-03-23|
2,091​
|
42.1%​
|
2020-03-24|
2,792​
|
33.5%​
|
2020-03-25|
3,409​
|
22.1%​
|
2020-03-26|
4,043​
|
18.6%​
|
2020-03-27|
4,689​
|
16.0%​
|
2020-03-28|
5,425​
|
15.7%​
|
2020-03-29|
6,258​
|
15.4%​
|
2020-03-30|
7,437​
|
18.8%​
|
2020-03-31|
8,548​
|
14.9%​
|
2020-04-01|
9,613​
|
12.5%​
|
2020-04-02|
11,131​
|
15.8%​
|
2020-04-03|
12,537​
|
12.6%​
|
2020-04-04|
13,904​
|
10.9%​
|
2020-04-05|
15,512​
|
11.6%​
|


Canada vs the USA. Because Canada's population is 1/8.6 that of the States, typically ratios for raw numbers in many areas run 1:8.6 (or 10 to 86) for Canada:USA.

The source for Tested is Wikipedia. The source for Confirmed cases and Deaths is also Wikipedia. That page is often more up-to-date than the Canadian government page, meaning the numbers for confirmed cases and deaths may differ from what I posted above.

Metric | Canada | Expected US number based on 1:8.6 ratio | Actual US Number | Actual Canada:US ratio | Yesterday's ratio
COVID-19 tests |
330,901​
|
2,845,749​
|
1,779,357​
|
1:5.4​
|
1:5.2​
|
COVID-19 cases |
15,494​
|
133,248​
|
337,278​
|
1:21​
|
1:22​
|
COVID-19 deaths |
280​
|
2,408​
|
9,637​
|
1:33​
|
1:36​
|
For the first time the ratio of Canadian:US cases has decreased a little, from 1:22 to 1:21. This is likely the result of increased US testing finding additional tests.

Per million population
Metric | Canada | United States
COVID-19 tests |
8,767​
|
5,355​
|
COVID-19 cases |
411​
|
1,018​
|
COVID-19 deaths |
7​
|
29​
|
 
Mortality growth, Canada vs the USA

In this table, I've aligned the growth of cases and deaths since the fist confirmed death in each country. In the USA the first death occurred on February 29; the first Canadian death was ten days later on March 10.

The results are rather sobering.

Days since 1st death | Canadian cases | (Change) | Canadian deaths | (Change) | American cases | (change) | American deaths | (change)
0​
|
97​
|+22.8% |
1​
| |
24​
|+26.3% |
1​
| |
1​
|
118​
|+21.6% |
1​
|= |
42​
|+75.0% |
2​
|+100.0%|
2​
|
159​
|+34.7% |
2​
|+100.0%|
57​
|+35.7% |
6​
|+200.0%|
3​
|
198​
|+24.5% |
2​
|= |
85​
|+49.1% |
9​
|+50.0% |
4​
|
254​
|+28.3% |
3​
|+50.0% |
111​
|+30.6% |
11​
|+22.2% |
5​
|
338​
|+33.1% |
4​
|+33.3% |
175​
|+57.7% |
11​
|= |
6​
|
441​
|+30.5% |
6​
|+50.0% |
252​
|+44.0% |
14​
|+27.3% |
7​
|
598​
|+35.6% |
7​
|+16.7% |
353​
|+40.1% |
19​
|+35.7% |
8​
|
728​
|+21.7% |
9​
|+28.6% |
497​
|+40.8% |
21​
|+10.5% |
9​
|
873​
|+19.9% |
10​
|+11.1% |
645​
|+29.8% |
26​
|+23.8% |
10​
|
1,088​
|+24.6% |
12​
|+20.0% |
936​
|+45.1% |
31​
|+19.2% |
11​
|
1,331​
|+22.3% |
13​
|+8.3% |
1,205​
|+28.7% |
37​
|+19.4% |
12​
|
1,472​
|+10.6% |
20​
|+53.8% |
1,598​
|+32.6% |
41​
|+10.8% |
13​
|
2,091​
|+42.1% |
24​
|+20.0% |
2,163​
|+35.4% |
49​
|+19.5% |
14​
|
2,819​
|+34.8% |
27​
|+12.5% |
2,825​
|+30.6% |
56​
|+14.3% |
15​
|
3,409​
|+20.9% |
35​
|+29.6% |
3,501​
|+23.9% |
62​
|+10.7% |
16​
|
4,043​
|+18.6% |
39​
|+11.4% |
4,373​
|+24.9% |
76​
|+22.6% |
17​
|
4,757​
|+17.7% |
53​
|+35.9% |
5,664​
|+29.5% |
97​
|+27.6% |
18​
|
5,655​
|+18.9% |
60​
|+13.2% |
8,074​
|+42.5% |
123​
|+26.8% |
19​
|
6,320​
|+11.8% |
61​
|+1.7% |
12,022​
|+48.9% |
175​
|+42.3% |
20​
|
7,448​
|+17.8% |
89​
|+45.9% |
17,439​
|+45.1% |
230​
|+31.4% |
21​
|
8,591​
|+15.3% |
96​
|+7.9% |
23,710​
|+36.0% |
298​
|+29.6% |
22​
|
9,731​
|+13.3% |
109​
|+13.5% |
32,341​
|+36.4% |
408​
|+36.9% |
23​
|
11,285​
|+16.0% |
138​
|+26.6% |
42,751​
|+32.2% |
519​
|+27.2% |
24​
|
12,549​
|+11.2% |
187​
|+35.5% |
52,690​
|+23.2% |
681​
|+31.2% |
25​
|
14,018​
|+11.7% |
231​
|+23.5% |
64,916​
|+23.2% |
906​
|+33.0% |
26​
| | | | |
81,966​
|+26.3% |
1,159​
|+27.9% |
27​
| | | | |
101,012​
|+23.2% |
1,592​
|+37.4% |
28​
| | | | |
121,105​
|+19.9% |
2,039​
|+28.1% |
29​
| | | | |
140,223​
|+15.8% |
2,431​
|+19.2% |
30​
| | | | |
160,686​
|+14.6% |
2,985​
|+22.8% |
31​
| | | | |
186,082​
|+15.8% |
3,806​
|+27.5% |
32​
| | | | |
212,814​
|+14.4% |
4,746​
|+24.7% |
33​
| | | | |
241,626​
|+13.5% |
5,821​
|+22.7% |
34​
| | | | |
273,808​
|+13.3% |
7,007​
|+20.4% |
35​
| | | | |
307,036​
|+12.1% |
8,352​
|+19.2% |

  • It took the USA 18 days to get to 100 deaths, while it took Canada 22 days (a four day gap)
  • It took the USA 20 days to get to 200 deaths, while it took Canada 25 days (a five day gap)

Based on this table, Canada is likely three or four days behind the US curve with regards to deaths. One piece of good news is (as of right now) Canada's deaths are growing at a slower pace than the States'. But Canada can still expect a rather large toll before the emergency is over.
 
Blue Mountain said:
Based on this table, Canada is likely three or four days behind the US curve with regards to deaths. One piece of good news is (as of right now) Canada's deaths are growing at a slower pace than the States'. But Canada can still expect a rather large toll before the emergency is over.
Click to expand...

Your timeline tables match the growth of cases in Calif. pretty well, and with populations that also match. It is almost exact!

Even so, Canada is higher now in new cases and new deaths than California ever was- or ever will be (IMO). California was hit first (not surprising given it is a larger hub of travel from initial outbreak areas) but Canada will soon overtake.

This virus likes the cold climates. There is not a single large international city with warm weather- even with their increased seasonal travel - that got hit hard with deaths per 100k residents like the colder northern cities.

Despite all the experience Toronto and Montreal had with SARS the first time around and their better responsive actions, the virus will still have a larger effect in those places. I think it is already baked in. I could be wrong but the numbers aren't telling me any different.
 
The current situation in Canada

Public Health Canada's Coronavirus web site said:
Province, territory or other | Number of confirmed cases | Number of deaths |
British Columbia|
1,266​
|
39​
|
Alberta|
1,348​
|
24​
|
Saskatchewan|
253​
|
3​
|
Manitoba|
204​
|
2​
|
Ontario|
4,347​
|
132​
|
Quebec|
8,580​
|
121​
|
New Brunswick|
103​
|
0​
|
Nova Scotia|
293​
|
0​
|
Prince Edward Island|
22​
|
0​
|
Newfoundland and Labrador|
226​
|
2​
|
Yukon|
7​
|
0​
|
Northwest Territories|
5​
|
0​
|
Nunavut|
0​
|
0​
|
Repatriated travellers|
13​
|
0​
|
Total |
16,667​
|
323​
|
Click to expand...
Confirmed cases are up 7.4% from yesterday (from 15,512); deaths are up 15.3% (from 280).


Growth curve

Date | Cases | Change
2020-03-09|
79​
|
2020-03-10|
97​
|
22.8%​
|
2020-03-11|
118​
|
21.6%​
|
2020-03-12|
149​
|
26.3%​
|
2020-03-13|
198​
|
32.9%​
|
2020-03-14|
254​
|
28.3%​
|
2020-03-15|
338​
|
33.1%​
|
2020-03-16|
424​
|
25.4%​
|
2020-03-17|
551​
|
30.0%​
|
2020-03-18|
621​
|
12.7%​
|
2020-03-19|
846​
|
36.2%​
|
2020-03-20|
926​
|
9.5%​
|
2020-03-21|
1,081​
|
16.7%​
|
2020-03-22|
1,471​
|
36.1%​
|
2020-03-23|
2,091​
|
42.1%​
|
2020-03-24|
2,792​
|
33.5%​
|
2020-03-25|
3,409​
|
22.1%​
|
2020-03-26|
4,043​
|
18.6%​
|
2020-03-27|
4,689​
|
16.0%​
|
2020-03-28|
5,425​
|
15.7%​
|
2020-03-29|
6,258​
|
15.4%​
|
2020-03-30|
7,437​
|
18.8%​
|
2020-03-31|
8,548​
|
14.9%​
|
2020-04-01|
9,613​
|
12.5%​
|
2020-04-02|
11,131​
|
15.8%​
|
2020-04-03|
12,537​
|
12.6%​
|
2020-04-04|
13,904​
|
10.9%​
|
2020-04-05|
15,512​
|
11.6%​
|
2020-04-06|
16,667​
|
7.4%​
|


Canada vs the USA. Because Canada's population is 1/8.6 that of the States, typically ratios for raw numbers in many areas run 1:8.6 (or 10 to 86) for Canada:USA.

The source for Tested is Wikipedia. The source for Confirmed cases and Deaths is also Wikipedia. That page is often more up-to-date than the Canadian government page, meaning the numbers for confirmed cases and deaths may differ from what I posted above.

Metric | Canada | Expected US number based on 1:8.6 ratio | Actual US Number | Actual Canada:US ratio | Yesterday's ratio
COVID-19 tests |
345,659​
|
2,972,667​
|
1,934,387​
|
1:5.4​
|
1:5.4​
|
COVID-19 cases |
16,653​
|
143,215​
|
367,461​
|
1:22​
|
1:21​
|
COVID-19 deaths |
323​
|
2,778​
|
10,910​
|
1:34​
|
1:33​
|
1st death + 27 days |
323​
|
n/a​
|
1,592​
|
1:4.9​
| |
I've added a new row to this table that compares the number of deaths in Canada since the first recorded death with the same number in the United States at the same point in time. The 8.6× factor doesn't apply here because the growth rate is unaffected by the population. The percentage change each day is what it is; it doesn't matter if the country has 100,000 people or 1,000,000,000 people (although the country with 100,000 will quickly run out of people to infect.)

Per million population
Metric | Canada | United States
COVID-19 tests |
9,158​
|
5,844​
|
COVID-19 cases |
441​
|
1,110​
|
COVID-19 deaths |
8.6​
|
33.0​
|
 
Does anyone know about BCG uptake in Canada? There's some suggestive correlations between vaccination and reduced Covid-19 effects.
 
catsmate said:
Does anyone know about BCG uptake in Canada? There's some suggestive correlations between vaccination and reduced Covid-19 effects.
Click to expand...

After a bit of Googling it appears that the BCG vaccine has not been given routinely in Canada for some decades. Going back fifty years, from personal experience, I know that testing for TB was recommended for individuals every few years (maybe annually? I remember being bugged by the company nurse to get retested on about that frequency). If you had actually been exposed to someone with TB you were vaccinated. Having been so exposed, I was last vaccinated around 1970. Again, going by Google, any effect/benefit will have worn off for now.

YMMV
 
The current situation in Canada

Public Health Canada's Coronavirus web site said:
Province, territory or other | Number of confirmed cases | Number of deaths |
British Columbia|
1,291​
|
43​
|
Alberta|
1,373​
|
26​
|
Saskatchewan|
260​
|
3​
|
Manitoba|
217​
|
3​
|
Ontario|
4,726​
|
153​
|
Quebec|
9,340​
|
150​
|
Newfoundland and Labrador|
228​
|
2​
|
New Brunswick|
105​
|
0​
|
Nova Scotia|
310​
|
0​
|
Prince Edward Island|
22​
|
0​
|
Yukon|
7​
|
0​
|
Northwest Territories|
5​
|
0​
|
Nunavut|
0​
|
0​
|
Repatriated travellers|
13​
|
0​
|
Canada |
17,897​
|
380​
|
Click to expand...
Confirmed cases are up 7.4% from yesterday (from 16,667); deaths are up 10.1% (from 345.)


Growth curve

Date | Cases | Change
2020-01-31|
4​
|
2020-02-08|
7​
|
75.0%​
|
2020-02-16|
8​
|
14.3%​
|
2020-02-21|
9​
|
12.5%​
|
2020-02-24|
10​
|
11.1%​
|
2020-02-25|
11​
|
10.0%​
|
2020-02-26|
12​
|
9.1%​
|
2020-02-27|
13​
|
8.3%​
|
2020-02-29|
15​
|
15.4%​
|
2020-03-01|
24​
|
60.0%​
|
2020-03-03|
33​
|
37.5%​
|
2020-03-05|
45​
|
36.4%​
|
2020-03-06|
51​
|
13.3%​
|
2020-03-07|
57​
|
11.8%​
|
2020-03-08|
62​
|
8.8%​
|
2020-03-09|
77​
|
24.2%​
|
2020-03-11|
103​
|
33.8%​
|
2020-03-12|
141​
|
36.9%​
|
2020-03-13|
179​
|
27.0%​
|
2020-03-14|
199​
|
11.2%​
|
2020-03-15|
253​
|
27.1%​
|
2020-03-16|
341​
|
34.8%​
|
2020-03-17|
440​
|
29.0%​
|
2020-03-18|
597​
|
35.7%​
|
2020-03-19|
873​
|
46.2%​
|
2020-03-20|
1,004​
|
15.0%​
|
2020-03-21|
1,371​
|
36.6%​
|
2020-03-22|
1,471​
|
7.3%​
|
2020-03-23|
2,091​
|
42.1%​
|
2020-03-24|
2,792​
|
33.5%​
|
2020-03-25|
3,409​
|
22.1%​
|
2020-03-26|
4,043​
|
18.6%​
|
2020-03-27|
4,689​
|
16.0%​
|
2020-03-28|
5,425​
|
15.7%​
|
2020-03-29|
6,258​
|
15.4%​
|
2020-03-30|
7,437​
|
18.8%​
|
2020-03-31|
8,548​
|
14.9%​
|
2020-04-01|
9,613​
|
12.5%​
|
2020-04-02|
11,283​
|
17.4%​
|
2020-04-03|
12,537​
|
11.1%​
|
2020-04-04|
13,904​
|
10.9%​
|
2020-04-05|
15,512​
|
11.6%​
|
2020-04-06|
16,667​
|
7.4%​
|
2020-04-07|
17,897​
|
7.4%​
|

Starting with today's post, I'm using numbers from a CSV file provided by Public Health Canada.


Canada vs the USA. Because Canada's population is 1/8.6 that of the States, typically ratios for raw numbers in many areas run 1:8.6 (or 10 to 86) for Canada:USA.

The source for Tested is Wikipedia. The source for Confirmed cases and Deaths is also Wikipedia. That page is often more up-to-date than the Canadian government page, meaning the numbers for confirmed cases and deaths may differ from what I posted above.

Metric | Canada | Expected US number based on 1:8.6 ratio | Actual US Number | Actual Canada:US ratio | Yesterday's ratio
COVID-19 tests |
348,105​
|
2,993,703​
|
2,080,758​
|
1:6.0​
|
1:5.4​
|
COVID-19 cases |
17,897​
|
153,914​
|
401,608​
|
1:22​
|
1:22​
|
COVID-19 deaths |
380​
|
3,268​
|
12,902​
|
1:34​
|
1:34​
|
1st death +28 days |
380​
|
n/a​
|
2,039​
|
1:5.4​
|
1:4.9​
|

Per million population
Metric | Canada | United States
COVID-19 tests |
9,223​
|
6,286​
|
COVID-19 cases |
474.2​
|
1,213​
|
COVID-19 deaths |
10.1​
|
40.0​
|
 
The current situation in Canada

Public Health Canada's Coronavirus web site said:
Province, territory or other | Number of confirmed cases | Number of deaths |
British Columbia|
1,336​
|
48​
|
Alberta|
1,423​
|
29​
|
Saskatchewan|
271​
|
3​
|
Manitoba|
221​
|
3​
|
Ontario|
5,276​
|
174​
|
Quebec|
10,031​
|
175​
|
Newfoundland and Labrador|
232​
|
2​
|
New Brunswick|
108​
|
0​
|
Nova Scotia|
342​
|
1​
|
Prince Edward Island|
24​
|
0​
|
Yukon|
7​
|
0​
|
Northwest Territories|
5​
|
0​
|
Nunavut|
0​
|
0​
|
Repatriated travellers|
13​
|
0​
|
Canada |
19,289​
|
435​
|
Click to expand...
Confirmed cases are up 7.7% from yesterday (from 17,897); deaths are up 14.5% (from 380.) This is the third day in a row the case growth rate has been under 10%. The US growth rate has been under or at 10% for four days now, but is typically 1% above Canada's (except today, when it was 2.3% higher.)


Growth curve from the begnimng of March

Date | Cases | Change
2020-03-01|
24​
|
60.0%​
|
2020-03-03|
33​
|
37.5%​
|
2020-03-05|
45​
|
36.4%​
|
2020-03-06|
51​
|
13.3%​
|
2020-03-07|
57​
|
11.8%​
|
2020-03-08|
62​
|
8.8%​
|
2020-03-09|
77​
|
24.2%​
|
2020-03-11|
103​
|
33.8%​
|
2020-03-12|
141​
|
36.9%​
|
2020-03-13|
179​
|
27.0%​
|
2020-03-14|
199​
|
11.2%​
|
2020-03-15|
253​
|
27.1%​
|
2020-03-16|
341​
|
34.8%​
|
2020-03-17|
440​
|
29.0%​
|
2020-03-18|
597​
|
35.7%​
|
2020-03-19|
873​
|
46.2%​
|
2020-03-20|
1,004​
|
15.0%​
|
2020-03-21|
1,371​
|
36.6%​
|
2020-03-22|
1,471​
|
7.3%​
|
2020-03-23|
2,091​
|
42.1%​
|
2020-03-24|
2,792​
|
33.5%​
|
2020-03-25|
3,409​
|
22.1%​
|
2020-03-26|
4,043​
|
18.6%​
|
2020-03-27|
4,689​
|
16.0%​
|
2020-03-28|
5,425​
|
15.7%​
|
2020-03-29|
6,258​
|
15.4%​
|
2020-03-30|
7,437​
|
18.8%​
|
2020-03-31|
8,548​
|
14.9%​
|
2020-04-01|
9,613​
|
12.5%​
|
2020-04-02|
11,283​
|
17.4%​
|
2020-04-03|
12,537​
|
11.1%​
|
2020-04-04|
13,904​
|
10.9%​
|
2020-04-05|
15,512​
|
11.6%​
|
2020-04-06|
16,667​
|
7.4%​
|
2020-04-07|
17,897​
|
7.4%​
|
2020-04-08|
19,289​
|
7.8%​
|


Canada vs the USA. Because Canada's population is 1/8.6 that of the States, typically ratios for raw numbers in many areas run 1:8.6 (or 10 to 86) for Canada:USA.

The source for Tested is Wikipedia. The source for Confirmed cases and Deaths is also Wikipedia. That page is often more up-to-date than the Canadian government page, meaning the numbers for confirmed cases and deaths may differ from what I posted above.

Metric | Canada | Expected US number based on 1:8.6 ratio | Actual US Number | Actual Canada:US ratio | Yesterday's ratio
COVID-19 tests |
370,315​
|
3,184,709​
|
2,206,994​
|
1:6.0​
|
1:6.0​
|
COVID-19 cases |
19,277​
|
165,782​
|
434,114​
|
1:23​
|
1:22​
|
COVID-19 deaths |
435​
|
3,741​
|
14,800​
|
1:34​
|
1:34​
|
1st death +29 days |
435​
|
n/a​
|
2,431​
|
1:5.6​
|
1:5.4​
|

Per million population
Metric | Canada | United States
COVID-19 tests |
9,812​
|
6,668​
|
COVID-19 cases |
511​
|
1,312​
|
COVID-19 deaths |
11.5​
|
44.7​
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