The One Covid-19 Science and Medicine Thread

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I wonder what they would say if you asked them.

Not sure why I would specifically ask that, but since the lockdown started, I’ve been talking to my mum every three days, and she is in very good spirits. Looking forward to the day when she can see her great-grandchildren again, taking part in zoom meetings with church members, baking, gardening, researching the family tree.

All I was pointing out was that age alone is not enough to determine whether someone has a decent quality of life. Not everyone over 70 is in God’s waiting room.

I’m sorry to hear about your father, but you refer to ‘his condition’, so it sounds as though there was something more than just age involved.
 
That, again, seems to be more an indication of quality of life, though, or, more specifically, lack of good quality of life because of limitations from declining health and other factors. Do you think he would have felt the same were he in good health?

My mom is 74 and my dad is 85. Both still live independently, do their own in store shopping (when not prevented by doing so by a pandemic) participate in various hobbies and activities, and exercise multiple times a week. Dad regularly goes for 5 mile bike rides and several mile walks, and mom likes to switch it up between youtube workouts in home, outdoor group exercise classes with other members of their 55+ community, and multi-mile walks on nearby trails.

If I'm honest, despite both of them having various health issues, they're probably in better shape and are more active than I am at 44 years old. Their existing health issues mean that neither is likely to survive Covid 19, but that's different from saying that their quality of life is so poor that death would be a desired outcome.

Dad's starting to slip cognitively a bit, but he still works part time remotely from home. Mom is sharp as a tack and has been enjoying various zoom classes in lieu of her usual in person church and community group classes.

There's no doubt in my mind that both value their lives and wish to continue living as long as their current quality of life can be maintained. There's also no doubt in my mind that were their quality of life to drastically decline to the point that they're not able to do the things they enjoy now, they'd be in a very different state of mind.
I'm pleased to hear they are still in relatively good health. Not all old people are, particularly those who are in care homes.
Not sure why I would specifically ask that, but since the lockdown started, I’ve been talking to my mum every three days, and she is in very good spirits. Looking forward to the day when she can see her great-grandchildren again, taking part in zoom meetings with church members, baking, gardening, researching the family tree.

All I was pointing out was that age alone is not enough to determine whether someone has a decent quality of life. Not everyone over 70 is in God’s waiting room.
I don't disagree at all, I never said that all those over 70 would wish to end it all, but simply point out that some who are frail and ill may feel that it offers them an escape from their inevitable further decline.
I’m sorry to hear about your father, but you refer to ‘his condition’, so it sounds as though there was something more than just age involved.
By condition I meant general health. It was mainly old age, he was 93 and simply got more and more frail, weak and incontinent, with some senile dementia and prostate cancer helping him downhill till he was bedridden and simply waiting to die.
 
Covid is truly not like the flu:
These are my observations (of hospitalized patients):

1) Everybody is so swollen their skin has blisters and is so tight it looks like it’s about to burst, from head to heel. And skin so dry peeling and flaky that to slather Vaseline on every shift is almost necessary — all over.

2) Everybody’s skin is weeping clear fluid and has sores and the skin just slides off with slightest turn or rub, all over the body.

3) Everybody’s blood is thick as slush. Can’t figure out what’s making it clot like that, but it’s dark and thick.

4) Everybody’s kidneys are failing. Urine dark or red, which could contribute to the swelling, but we don’t know yet.

5) Everybody has an abnormal heart rhythm. Not sure of the cause. But even without underlying heart problems, it’s not beating normally.

6) Seems counterproductive, but the ones that are not breathing on the ventilator have to lay flat on their stomachs to breathe better. And even some on the ventilator are on their stomachs. And the slightest turn for some is what leads to their almost immediate death. Bathing, cleaning and turning to prevent skin breakdown causes most to code blue, so a decision has to be made on which is most important.

7) Everyone has a Foley catheter and a rectal tube — incontinent of bowel and bladder.

8) Everybody on tube feeding. Everybody.

Never before in my entire career have I seen a disease process attack in this way.

— 20-year veteran nurse in NYC via Dr. Dee Knight
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/me...id-19/ar-BB15Pumu?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=mailsignout

I wish I could send this to everybody who thinks masks are an infringment on their rights.
 
I'm going to strongly disagree with you. Many of those older people that have died would have in a better society and culture already have been allowed to die or euthanised long before the virus hit them, mainly the ones with various forms of cognitive degenerative diseases. To be blunt their life is not as important to save as say a 45 year old for example. And whilst our society may try to fool itself that we don't have such a view that is exposed to be the lie it is by the value we place on the care for those people.

Yeah, that's fine - and I agree with you on aged care - but those are the people who get triaged for death when the hospitals fill up.

My point was that the age of those dying is irrelevant. Yes, a fair few were on their last legs, but a hell of a lot aren't. I believe the stupid old Windsor bitch is in her 90s and still works harder than most Poms.
 
Just over a month later ...

Less than a month later (oh how time flies)

Per the same source, states with >1k recorded covid-19 deaths (green=change in rank):

1: 28,743 New York NY
2: 10,985 New Jersey NJ

03: 6,148 Massachusetts MA
04: 5,129 Michigan MI
05: 4,985 Pennsylvania PA
06: 4,607 Illinois IL
07: 3,604 California CA
08: 3,583 Connecticut CT
09: 2,629 Louisiana LA
10: 2,207 Maryland MA
11: 2,190 Florida FL
12: 1,940 Indiana IN (new)
13: 1,837 Ohio OH (new)
14: 1,783 Georgia GA
15: 1,461 Texas TX (new)
16: 1,310 Colorado CO (new)
17: 1,137 Virginia VA (double new)
18: 1,044 Washington WA (new)

19: 851 Minnesota MN (new)
20: 764 Arizona AZ (new)
21: 759 North Carolina NC (new)
22: 672 Missouri MO (new)
23: 595 Mississippi MS (new)
25: 579 Rhode Island RI (new)
26: 533 Alabama AL (new)
Source this time is the COVID Tracking Project.

1: 24,766 New York NY
2: 12,949 New Jersey NJ

03: 7,890 Massachusetts MA
04: 6,911 Illinois IL
05: 6,464 Pennsylvania PA
06: 6,109 Michigan MI

07: 3,604 California CA
08: 3,583 Connecticut CT
09: 3,333 Florida FL
10: 3,134 Louisiana LA
11: 3,092 Maryland MD
12: 2,735 Ohio OH
13: 2,688 Georgia GA
14: 2,569 Indiana IN

15: 2,220 Texas TX
16: 1,651 Colorado CO
17: 1,645 Virginia VA
18: 1,425 Minnesota MN
19: 1,384 Arizona AZ
20: 1,276 Washington WA

21: 1,251 North Carolina NC

22: 989 Mississippi MS
23: 961 Missouri MO
24: 906 Rhode Island RI
25: 864 Alabama AL
26: 750 Wisconsin WI (new)
27: 688 Iowa IA (new)
28: 673 South Carolina SC (new)
29: 542 Tennessee TN (new)
30: 537 Kentucky KY (new)
31: 537 DC (new)
32: 504 Delaware DE (new)


At the next update, which among the [19,26] will jump into the >1k group?
Three, sadly: Minnesota, Arizona, and North Carolina.

Will NY and NJ have any company, in 2020 (>10k)?

How many states will eventually, in 2020, record >1k Covid-19 deaths?

<snip>
My guesses:

- there will ~a dozen US states with >10k Covid-19 deaths by the first week of 2021. :(

- not so sure, but more than 35 will have >1k Covid-19 deaths in 2020 :(
 
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<snip>

I said way back in the first few pages that the pragmatic approach would be to let the virus run for that very reason. The people it's killing are the ones that take up the majority of health budgets, so chopping them out would be the economically soundest approach.
Cite?

Counter, at least for the US: the sickest - the ones taking the greatest bite from the health care budgets - are also the ones on Medicare (65+, in short). And among those, it's the ones with chronic conditions, e.g. cancer. Interestingly, "cancer" is not in the CDC Covid-19 comorbidity list*. :jaw-dropp

I think I read that there's also a pretty huge disparity in Covid-19 death rates (all ages, etc), when analyzed by income/wealth ... the poorest die quickly, the rich just get sicker and live on.

It looks like that will happen anyway.
It might, in the US (or a large part of it). And Brazil. And ... But not Iceland, not NZ, not Australia, ... and likely not Europe ...


*Though "chronic lung disease" is; that obviously includes many of those with cancer (not just lung cancer)
 
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I don't disagree at all, I never said that all those over 70 would wish to end it all, but simply point out that some who are frail and ill may feel that it offers them an escape from their inevitable further decline.
I can think of much nicer ways to go, and I hope I am given the option. My mother had cancer and was suffering more pain than she should have because she had been warned about becoming addicted to painkillers. The doctor said just take as much as you want - better to go out happy than in pain. She died at 49.

zooterkin said:
Not everyone over 70 is in God’s waiting room.
Retirement ages around the World are being pushed up to 70 and beyond because people are living longer. So on the one hand you don't deserve a pension because you are too fit, but on other hand you don't deserve to live because you are too old?

But of course we all know why - money. Why should I (a 'young' person) have to give up some of my hard-earned income to support old people? Why should my bank balance suffer so they don't die of a disease that I will easily get over? I mean, what did old people ever do for me?
 
Here is a job for you. Which of these states are ruled by a Republican leader and which are Democratic and which are other? See if this makes a difference. Heard on the news yesterday it did. Maybe you can confirm that.
The US is not like Australia, even though both are federations. At least wrt how the states (same name!) are governed/administered: in Oz it's nigh on impossible for a Premier to be of a different party than that which controls the parliament (the governors are figure-heads). In the US, it's quite common for the governor of a state (a very powerful position) to be of a different party than the one controlling the leglistaure.

A rough guide is: the coasts are blue (Dems), the middle red (Republicans).

The "tri-state area" (NY, NJ, CT; all blue) - centered on NYC - was the hottest of hot spots; the Wuhan of the US if you like. We now know it was "seeded" largely by infected travellers from Europe (over a thousand separate times, IIRC). In rt.live, these three have low Rt values today.

A more interesting perspective might be which states seem to have Covid-19 sorta under control (e.g. NY, NJ, CT, MA, MD: blue), and which do not (e.g. NV, OK, FL, SC, AZ, TX: red). OR seems to be an outlier (blue, but high Rt).

I've been keeping track using an idiosyncratic metric; not ready to post about it yet ...
 
I can think of much nicer ways to go, and I hope I am given the option. My mother had cancer and was suffering more pain than she should have because she had been warned about becoming addicted to painkillers. The doctor said just take as much as you want - better to go out happy than in pain. She died at 49.

Retirement ages around the World are being pushed up to 70 and beyond because people are living longer. So on the one hand you don't deserve a pension because you are too fit, but on other hand you don't deserve to live because you are too old?

But of course we all know why - money. Why should I (a 'young' person) have to give up some of my hard-earned income to support old people? Why should my bank balance suffer so they don't die of a disease that I will easily get over? I mean, what did old people ever do for me?
Well, if it weren't for a pair of (now) old people*, you would not be here! :cool:

AFAIK, Homo sapiens is unusual in having a typical lifespan that considerably exceeds reproductive ability (females anyway). Apparently grandparents (and uncles and aunts) are good for children and other living things ... ;)

*Maybe more; depends on how sick you have been (etc)
 
As my father entered his last years of life he often expressed his disappointment that he had woken up that morning and would have to go through yet another day of struggle on his way to death. As his condition got worse he asked me more than once if I knew of any way he could get out of the inevitable decline into bedridden incontinence that was indeed his final lot. Being asked by your own father for a means to euthanasia does tend to make you wonder just who's life is being discussed.

So yes, I do have reason to think the answer may be different.

But I have already described my mother’s life. She is in excellent health and is able to take care of all her own needs. She employs a housekeeper because she can afford to, not because she needs to. My mother is not “struggling” by any definition of the word. She has no “condition” to struggle with. (Well, she is having cataract surgery on Tuesday if you want to count that). Honestly, your question after quoting my description of my mother’s life strikes me as rather odd. Almost as if you didn’t actually read my post before you quoted it. To emphasize, at 86 my mother is leading a great life and wants it to continue as long as possible. Her mother lived to 98 and it was only the last two years or so that were difficult for her.
 
Well, we clearly don't need more anecdotal evidence about this or that elderly person now. What is needed here is a proper survey of elderly persons of all demographics asking if they want to live or not. Only then can we make an informed decision as to whether it is okay to let them die for the economy, or not, as the case may be.

:boggled:
 
Why New Zealand decided to go for full elimination of the coronavirus

https://www.newscientist.com/articl...elimination-of-the-coronavirus/#ixzz6QLN4bsax

The first case of covid-19 in New Zealand was recorded on 28 February. Like most countries, it initially planned to gradually tighten its control measures as the virus gained momentum. But Baker, a public health expert at the University of Otago who is on the government’s covid-19 advisory panel, believed that this was the wrong approach. “I thought we should do it in the reverse order and throw everything at the pandemic at the start,” he says.
 
I've got a real problem here in Hawaii where politicians, local leaders and people in general think I have betrayed them and they are really unable to hold to the recommended policies anymore.

I did as much as I could since the beginning to really push and link and explain the science behind this and what the sensible policies were and many of the people involved.

After fighting very very very hard to convince their constituents, the local leaders were able to get mask wearing and distancing to become culturally accepted, and often would share videos I linked of health experts.

Now many of those same experts have come out in videos saying "social justice is more important than social distancing" as if that's some dichotomy, and outright encouraging protestors massed up in a ball with no masks and no possibility of distancing.

So now I'm a liar

Now all of the push these leaders have had to try and save the local people is out the window and many will not be reelected.

I want to barf, I feel so betrayed

Before anyone goes stupid tribal (which seems to be the ^&^^^&%# problem thru this whole goddamn thing, worse than the virus), a short glance would tell you the political leanings here, so can't just go full TDS, its just people, who feel betrayed.

PEOPLE, not tribes, not left or right, not politics

Ungoddamn real, they are putting nails in my coffin now

https://www.newsweek.com/oregon-cou...AtuclVQaZn_r9XhQx5s4j4bfTv9WbDG4g679R4lTzD3iY
 
Why New Zealand decided to go for full elimination of the coronavirus

https://www.newscientist.com/articl...elimination-of-the-coronavirus/#ixzz6QLN4bsax

Quite right.

Which makes it all the more incredible that we didn't protect the borders.

We have about another 7-10 days to go without cases in the community to be sure the virus didn't slip in through the absurdly lax procedures. If we got away with it, that will be two unbelievable pieces of luck we've had.
 
A more interesting perspective might be which states seem to have Covid-19 sorta under control (e.g. NY, NJ, CT, MA, MD: blue), and which do not (e.g. NV, OK, FL, SC, AZ, TX: red). OR seems to be an outlier (blue, but high Rt).

Or Hawaii, as blue as it gets, with the highest RT in the nation
 
Why New Zealand decided to go for full elimination of the coronavirus

https://www.newscientist.com/articl...elimination-of-the-coronavirus/#ixzz6QLN4bsax
I don’t see the reason for all this panic in Australia and NZ over a few small outbreaks.
This will be the norm until an effective vaccine is found.
Noises about “total elimination” are just absurd as neither country is able to close their borders to the possibility of incoming infection.

Even 14-day quarantine is not a guarantee, as there have been cases that were infectious even after 21 days. If you add in the real-world fact that testing results are never going to be 100% accurate, claims of “elimination” are just a political PR nonsense.

There is absolutely no ironclad guarantee that COVID-19 is still not circulating through the NZ population.
Asymptotic anyone?
Those are just wandering around waiting to run into someone who is more susceptible to the virus, and then, BOOM, another media frenzy.

This current hysterical overreacting, deliberately stoked by the media, is as tedious as it is ******* childish.
 
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I don’t see the reason for all this panic in Australia and NZ over a few small outbreaks.

There's no panic here, just complete disgust at the disorganisation of what is actually a very simple job.

You seem to be confusing what's happening in Aussie and NZ. We have no community transmission and haven't had for 10 weeks. I'd say we'd have seen at least one positive test in that time if it was still around.

We have sell-out crowds at the rugby and totally open travel around the country. People are ignoring the hell out of it and the media is only focusing on whose neck will be on the chopping block for a monumental screw-up.
 
Covid-19 antibody tests for NHS and care staff are being rolled out without "adequate assessment", experts warn.

The tests could place an unnecessary burden on the NHS, the 14 senior academics say in a letter in the BMJ,

Last month, the government said it had bought 10 million antibody tests and asked NHS trusts and care homes to make them available to staff in England.

The group of scientists say as a positive result is unable to prove immunity, the tests offer "no benefit" to hospitals and care staff.

The results do not change what personal protective equipment staff must wear, for example.

The academics also suggest there is little data on how well the test works for people at highest risk - including people belonging to some ethnic minorities and older patients.

Instead, they call for other carefully designed strategies to help monitor the spread of the virus.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53169618
 
But I have already described my mother’s life. She is in excellent health and is able to take care of all her own needs. She employs a housekeeper because she can afford to, not because she needs to. My mother is not “struggling” by any definition of the word. She has no “condition” to struggle with. (Well, she is having cataract surgery on Tuesday if you want to count that). Honestly, your question after quoting my description of my mother’s life strikes me as rather odd. Almost as if you didn’t actually read my post before you quoted it. To emphasize, at 86 my mother is leading a great life and wants it to continue as long as possible. Her mother lived to 98 and it was only the last two years or so that were difficult for her.

Fair enough - Serves me right for not phrasing my original question correctly.
 
Wandering a little too bit away from the direct science discussions, let's get this thread back on track. There are at least two threads dedicated to political discussions about the virus, use those for the political stuff. Thanks.
Replying to this modbox in thread will be off topic  Posted By: Darat
 
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