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Tags 2016 elections , 2020 elections , donald trump , presidential candidates , republicans

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Old 9th July 2020, 10:01 PM   #601
The Great Zaganza
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The SCOTUS decision about Trump's records is a clear marker for "post-Peak Trumpdom.

The Justices have made it clear that the President does not have immunity against investigation, which has a lot of knock-on effects when it comes to subpoenas etc.
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Old 9th July 2020, 10:37 PM   #602
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Originally Posted by Segnosaur View Post
It is certainly possible that some Trump supporters would lie because they like Trolling pollsters. (Its also possible that some may lie because they are embarrassed to tell anyone they like Trump.)

But, I figure at most that might affect the results by a percent or 2. If Biden is leading by double digits it won't really change a potential win to a loss.

Remember, many of the same factors were in play in 2016... We knew Trump was a racist conman who liked to 'grab em by the pussy'. Trump's supporters were fine with that. Yet opinion polls ended up actually being pretty accurate at the end (off by only a couple of percentage points in the popular vote). They had similar reasons to lie in 2016, but it didn't really change how accurate the polls ended up being.

If someone is so embarrassed about liking Trump that they lie to pollsters, then they need to ask themselves why they are embarrassed.
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Old 10th July 2020, 08:38 AM   #603
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I don't credit Trumpsters as having a high level of introspection.

However, there is probably a little fear of this playing into it as well:
https://www.diyphotography.net/bh-em...tter-movement/
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Old 11th July 2020, 08:44 AM   #604
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
The SCOTUS decision about Trump's records is a clear marker for "post-Peak Trumpdom.

The Justices have made it clear that the President does not have immunity against investigation, which has a lot of knock-on effects when it comes to subpoenas etc.
I think it was designed to delay issue beyond November. It also means they can attack Biden more from this angle, if he becames POTUS.

USA rots. It is not pretty. It is irreversible. All you guys can do is to slow down process of degeneration (by voting for someone else than authoritarian right-wing party of rethuglicanery) until I am safely in grave. Unfortunately, I doubt I will be that lucky.

Returning to title, there may be peak of Trump. But when peak of aforementioned authoritarian right-wing party will pass?
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Old 11th July 2020, 11:31 AM   #605
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
I don't credit Trumpsters as having a high level of introspection.

However, there is probably a little fear of this playing into it as well:
https://www.diyphotography.net/bh-em...tter-movement/
I don't think so unless your* paranoia runs so deep you think the pollsters are part of the Deep State and polling is just a ruse to call up your employer and say "Your employee is going to vote for Trump".

I can see not wanting to say who you're voting for if you think it might cause dissention in the family, among friends, etc because they vehemently oppose that candidate but not to some stranger calling for a poll.

*"Your": those taking the poll.
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Old 11th July 2020, 04:54 PM   #606
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
I don't think so unless your* paranoia runs so deep you think the pollsters are part of the Deep State and polling is just a ruse to call up your employer and say "Your employee is going to vote for Trump".

I can see not wanting to say who you're voting for if you think it might cause dissention in the family, among friends, etc because they vehemently oppose that candidate but not to some stranger calling for a poll.

*"Your": those taking the poll.
I recieve Facebook posts daily describing how the expectation to wear face masks is a conspiracy to rob us of our freedoms.
There are people getting fired and doxed for expressing opinions contrary to the current zeitgeist (as in the link)
It is not a stretch to expect a fair number of Trump supporters feel intimidated into not sharing their support with anyone.
I am most definitely not a Trump supporter- yet if I were there is no way I would put out a Trump/Pence sign in front of my home in the neighborhood in which I live.
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Old 11th July 2020, 06:11 PM   #607
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
I recieve Facebook posts daily describing how the expectation to wear face masks is a conspiracy to rob us of our freedoms.
There are people getting fired and doxed for expressing opinions contrary to the current zeitgeist (as in the link)
It is not a stretch to expect a fair number of Trump supporters feel intimidated into not sharing their support with anyone.
I am most definitely not a Trump supporter- yet if I were there is no way I would put out a Trump/Pence sign in front of my home in the neighborhood in which I live.
When will white conservatives finally catch a break in this country?
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Old 11th July 2020, 06:59 PM   #608
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Originally Posted by johnny karate View Post
When will white conservatives finally catch a break in this country?
He's got a point though. Many racists want to stay in the closet about their racism.
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Old 11th July 2020, 08:38 PM   #609
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It is fascinating that being labeled a Racist seems to be worse for plenty Americans than being called a Fascist or even Nazi.
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Old 12th July 2020, 01:01 AM   #610
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
I recieve Facebook posts daily describing how the expectation to wear face masks is a conspiracy to rob us of our freedoms.
There are people getting fired and doxed for expressing opinions contrary to the current zeitgeist (as in the link)
It is not a stretch to expect a fair number of Trump supporters feel intimidated into not sharing their support with anyone.
I am most definitely not a Trump supporter- yet if I were there is no way I would put out a Trump/Pence sign in front of my home in the neighborhood in which I live.
I understand that but you seem to be missing my point. We're talking about lying to a stranger on the phone reading from a script who is making hundreds of phone calls a day from a list of anonymous numbers. Additionally, the question wasn't about being scared to say who they're voting for but being too embarrassed to say. I just don't see a significant amount of people lying about it either way.
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Old 12th July 2020, 02:43 PM   #611
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
I understand that but you seem to be missing my point. We're talking about lying to a stranger on the phone reading from a script who is making hundreds of phone calls a day from a list of anonymous numbers. Additionally, the question wasn't about being scared to say who they're voting for but being too embarrassed to say. I just don't see a significant amount of people lying about it either way.
That the threat is not real does not eliminate the perception that it may be.
"anonymous" phone numbers? If someone calls me, they can fairly easily find out who the number belongs to.

**phone rings** "Hello, this is (blank) calling on behalf of ABC polling, I wonder if you might be able to take a few minutes to answer some survey questions.....etc.... Etc..." Could be anyone.
If I had access to your full name or address (in some cases) and felt compelled to do so, it could be me. Not that hard a thing to fake.
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Old 12th July 2020, 02:47 PM   #612
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
That the threat is not real does not eliminate the perception that it may be.
Also known as “paranoia”.
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Old 12th July 2020, 02:51 PM   #613
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
It is fascinating that being labeled a Racist seems to be worse for plenty Americans than being called a Fascist or even Nazi.
Only one of those accusations is likely to get one fired.
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Old 12th July 2020, 03:32 PM   #614
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
That the threat is not real does not eliminate the perception that it may be.
"anonymous" phone numbers? If someone calls me, they can fairly easily find out who the number belongs to.

**phone rings** "Hello, this is (blank) calling on behalf of ABC polling, I wonder if you might be able to take a few minutes to answer some survey questions.....etc.... Etc..." Could be anyone.
If I had access to your full name or address (in some cases) and felt compelled to do so, it could be me. Not that hard a thing to fake.
Sorry, but this is going down Conspiracy Theory Lane and turning right onto Paranoia Parkway. Wait a minute....hmmmmm....that would fit right in with a lot of Trumpers. But I don't think so many that it would affect polls.
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Old 12th July 2020, 03:41 PM   #615
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
That the threat is not real does not eliminate the perception that it may be.
"anonymous" phone numbers? If someone calls me, they can fairly easily find out who the number belongs to.

**phone rings** "Hello, this is (blank) calling on behalf of ABC polling, I wonder if you might be able to take a few minutes to answer some survey questions.....etc.... Etc..." Could be anyone.
If I had access to your full name or address (in some cases) and felt compelled to do so, it could be me. Not that hard a thing to fake.

Agree!
Do people on a skeptic board really give out personal info to a stranger on the phone just because they ask? Baffling.

I wouldnt answer any of these polls. They would know a lot about you and it is just asking for a bunch of junk mail and solicitations. I get enough of that already just for being registered 'no party preferred'.
People lie. They sell your data. Maybe some here haven't noticed that political views have been weaponized lately for all sorts of things. Low odds for most but why even risk it?

The best answer is to not answer.


*side question: how are they getting people under 50 to even answer a phone?
There are calls that have come into my phone that, if I answer, it just puts me on a list of 'good numbers that answer' and I get sold off to the spam texters.

Maybe all of that predatory behavior aimed at my phone bothers me more than others.
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Old 12th July 2020, 03:58 PM   #616
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Originally Posted by Sherkeu View Post
Agree!
Do people on a skeptic board really give out personal info to a stranger on the phone just because they ask? Baffling.

I wouldnt answer any of these polls. They would know a lot about you and it is just asking for a bunch of junk mail and solicitations. I get enough of that already just for being registered 'no party preferred'.
People lie. They sell your data. Maybe some here haven't noticed that political views have been weaponized lately for all sorts of things. Low odds for most but why even risk it?

The best answer is to not answer.


*side question: how are they getting people under 50 to even answer a phone?
There are calls that have come into my phone that, if I answer, it just puts me on a list of 'good numbers that answer' and I get sold off to the spam texters.

Maybe all of that predatory behavior aimed at my phone bothers me more than others.
The subject is getting changed here. I'm not talking about phone calls asking for personal info. I'm talking about political polls. These ask questions like "Do you agree the country is going in the right direction? A) Strongly agree B) Somewhat agree C) Strongly disagree D) Somewhat disagree" and "Do you plan to vote for the Republican nominee for President? A) Definitely B) Maybe C) No."

If you seriously think someone is going to then track down your employer and report your answers, that is full fledged paranoia. If you're too embarrassed to say whom you're voting for, then you need to ask yourself why you think it's embarrassing.

Frankly, I don't answer polls because they're just a pain in the ass and I've better things to do with my time and not because I'm embarrassed by my choices or paranoid the pollster is out to get me.
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Old 12th July 2020, 05:41 PM   #617
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
Sorry, but this is going down Conspiracy Theory Lane and turning right onto Paranoia Parkway. Wait a minute....hmmmmm....that would fit right in with a lot of Trumpers. But I don't think so many that it would affect polls.
Imagine that. Might even cause them to give a false answer.

What was that original claim that started this sidebar again....?
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Old 12th July 2020, 05:43 PM   #618
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
The subject is getting changed here. I'm not talking about phone calls asking for personal info. I'm talking about political polls. These ask questions like "Do you agree the country is going in the right direction? A) Strongly agree B) Somewhat agree C) Strongly disagree D) Somewhat disagree" and "Do you plan to vote for the Republican nominee for President? A) Definitely B) Maybe C) No."

If you seriously think someone is going to then track down your employer and report your answers, that is full fledged paranoia. If you're too embarrassed to say whom you're voting for, then you need to ask yourself why you think it's embarrassing.

Frankly, I don't answer polls because they're just a pain in the ass and I've better things to do with my time and not because I'm embarrassed by my choices or paranoid the pollster is out to get me.
For some, who they plan to vote for is personal information.

And of course, one could be certain that the poll is anonymous. After all, they say it is.
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Old 12th July 2020, 05:44 PM   #619
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Originally Posted by Sherkeu View Post
Agree!
Do people on a skeptic board really give out personal info to a stranger on the phone just because they ask? Baffling.

I wouldnt answer any of these polls. They would know a lot about you and it is just asking for a bunch of junk mail and solicitations. I get enough of that already just for being registered 'no party preferred'.
People lie. They sell your data. Maybe some here haven't noticed that political views have been weaponized lately for all sorts of things. Low odds for most but why even risk it?

The best answer is to not answer.


*side question: how are they getting people under 50 to even answer a phone?
There are calls that have come into my phone that, if I answer, it just puts me on a list of 'good numbers that answer' and I get sold off to the spam texters.

Maybe all of that predatory behavior aimed at my phone bothers me more than others.
Or give the answer that is less likely to draw the attention of the thought police.
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Old 12th July 2020, 06:49 PM   #620
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
Or give the answer that is less likely to draw the attention of the thought police.
I’m pretty sure the thought police can already see into your brain, depending on the grade of tinfoil used for your hat.
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Old 12th July 2020, 10:19 PM   #621
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
Imagine that. Might even cause them to give a false answer.

What was that original claim that started this sidebar again....?
No. My original post was regarding Trump supporters being EMBARRASSED by admitting they'd vote for Trump, not being SCARED to do so. Those are two totally different things.
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Old 12th July 2020, 10:25 PM   #622
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Originally Posted by Distracted1;13154994For some,
who they plan to vote for is personal information.
Oh, come on. That is not the kind of personal information we're talking about and I think you know that. Personal information is name, address, employer, etc.

Quote:
And of course, one could be certain that the poll is anonymous. After all, they say it is.
Again, this is pure paranoia. Political pollsters are not calling you so they can report your political preferences to your employers. This is just getting ridiculous.

ETA:
Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
Or give the answer that is less likely to draw the attention of the thought police.
Ok... if you're not being tongue in cheek, it answers a lot.

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Old 13th July 2020, 04:30 AM   #623
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I think Distracted1 just feels need to explain away results of polls that he does not like.

His argument fells apart for simple reason - if someone does not want to participate in poll (for whatever reason), then best thing to do would be simply not answering instead of lying to pollster.
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Old 13th July 2020, 04:55 AM   #624
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Originally Posted by Mader Levap View Post
I think Distracted1 just feels need to explain away results of polls that he does not like.

His argument fells apart for simple reason - if someone does not want to participate in poll (for whatever reason), then best thing to do would be simply not answering instead of lying to pollster.
!.) your mind-reading skills are truly abysmal

2.) Rationality is not an automatic human response
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Old 13th July 2020, 04:59 AM   #625
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Originally Posted by Stacyhs View Post
Oh, come on. That is not the kind of personal information we're talking about and I think you know that. Personal information is name, address, employer, etc.



Again, this is pure paranoia. Political pollsters are not calling you so they can report your political preferences to your employers. This is just getting ridiculous.

ETA:

Ok... if you're not being tongue in cheek, it answers a lot.
When you recieve calls from the IRS do you give your information?

How about when the local utility calls to tell you that they are on the way to shut off your power unless you can provide immediate payment via Apple gift-cards?

The only evidence that one has that it is a pollster on the other end of the phone is because they say so.

It may be paranoia to expect that ones voting preference is being sought out for nefarious means- but is is far from impossible.
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Old 13th July 2020, 05:03 AM   #626
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Some people may lie on a poll about who they will vote for, but the default assumption should be that they are telling the truth. That's how most interactions with people work on such mundane subjects such as who people are voting for.

You are simply trying to explain away polls for some reason. You are in CT territory.
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Old 13th July 2020, 05:56 AM   #627
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Originally Posted by thaiboxerken View Post
Some people may lie on a poll about who they will vote for, but the default assumption should be that they are telling the truth. That's how most interactions with people work on such mundane subjects such as who people are voting for.

You are simply trying to explain away polls for some reason. You are in CT territory.
Which is it?

Do "some people lie on polls about who they will vote for"?

Or is it "a CT" that "some people will lie on polls about who they will vote for?

It is unclear which is true from your post.
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Old 13th July 2020, 05:58 AM   #628
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
Which is it?

Do "some people lie on polls about who they will vote for"?

Or is it "a CT" that "some people will lie on polls about who they will vote for?

It is unclear which is true from your post.
Some people may. It's your burden of proof to show us that it's significant enough to make a difference in polling.
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Old 13th July 2020, 06:05 AM   #629
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It made a difference in 2016. The polls were still within the margin of error but all biased in the same direction, which was enough to throw everyone off.

538 would adjust for that polling bias as part of its adjustment for pollster bias. That might be a good place to dig into whether they feel phone polls have a slant in general.
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Old 14th July 2020, 04:45 AM   #630
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Originally Posted by Beelzebuddy View Post
It made a difference in 2016. The polls were still within the margin of error but all biased in the same direction, which was enough to throw everyone off.

538 would adjust for that polling bias as part of its adjustment for pollster bias. That might be a good place to dig into whether they feel phone polls have a slant in general.
Lying to pollsters isn't what made the polls in certain states be slightly for Clinton instead of for Trump.
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Old 14th July 2020, 11:52 PM   #631
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
When you recieve calls from the IRS do you give your information?
No. Because the IRS never, ever calls you.

Quote:
How about when the local utility calls to tell you that they are on the way to shut off your power unless you can provide immediate payment via Apple gift-cards?
No. Because I'm not an idiot who falls for that kind of scam.

Quote:
The only evidence that one has that it is a pollster on the other end of the phone is because they say so.
Pollsters don't ask for personal information. They don't ask you for your name, address, employer, etc. I don't know how many times I have to say that.[quote]


Quote:
It may be paranoia to expect that ones voting preference is being sought out for nefarious means- but is is far from impossible.
It's not impossible that it's the Clintons calling to find out if you have a child to sell them for their pizza parlor sex ring either. But it is nuts.

You know, sometimes it's just better to stop digging the hole deeper and walk away. This is one of those times.
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Old 14th July 2020, 11:59 PM   #632
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaiboxerken View Post
Some people may lie on a poll about who they will vote for, but the default assumption should be that they are telling the truth. That's how most interactions with people work on such mundane subjects such as who people are voting for.

You are simply trying to explain away polls for some reason. You are in CT territory.
Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
Which is it?

Do "some people lie on polls about who they will vote for"?

Or is it "a CT" that "some people will lie on polls about who they will vote for?

It is unclear which is true from your post.
You're being intentionally obtuse.
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Old 15th July 2020, 05:38 AM   #633
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[quote=Stacyhs;13157583]No. Because the IRS never, ever calls you.



No. Because I'm not an idiot who falls for that kind of scam.



Pollsters don't ask for personal information. They don't ask you for your name, address, employer, etc. I don't know how many times I have to say that.
Quote:




It's not impossible that it's the Clintons calling to find out if you have a child to sell them for their pizza parlor sex ring either. But it is nuts.

You know, sometimes it's just better to stop digging the hole deeper and walk away. This is one of those times.

No, they do not. But people claiming to be the IRS do. What would be so CT about a phishing attempt that claimed to be a political poll?

Okay fine. I will adopt your outlook that people never lie to other people on the phone if those people are claiming to be political pollsters. Why would they?, ones political inclinations are definitly not considered personal by anyone.
I see the light now.
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Old 15th July 2020, 05:43 AM   #634
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
What would be so CT about a phishing attempt that claimed to be a political poll?
Because pollsters don't ask for personal information. That's why they're anonymous. If a pollster asks you to pay them via Steam gift cards before ansering the question and you do, you deserve to be scammed.
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Old 15th July 2020, 05:48 AM   #635
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And if you are that concerned about a pollster being some sort of phishing scheme or scam just hang up the damn phone.
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Old 15th July 2020, 05:49 AM   #636
Distracted1
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Because pollsters don't ask for personal information. That's why they're anonymous. If a pollster asks you to pay them via Steam gift cards before ansering the question and you do, you deserve to be scammed.
And who one plans to vote for is definitely not personal information.
Got it.
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Old 15th July 2020, 05:50 AM   #637
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Originally Posted by bonzombiekitty View Post
And if you are that concerned about a pollster being some sort of phishing scheme or scam just hang up the damn phone.
You tell them!.
Certainly, everyone is rational.
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Old 15th July 2020, 05:53 AM   #638
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
And who one plans to vote for is definitely not personal information.
Got it.
In the context of personal information that has any real value to a person trying to scam someone or some other nefarious purpose? No, not really.

Again, if you are concerned about the possibility of a person calling you is trying to gleam personal information from you for some reason, just hang up the phone.

Personally, I don't answer polls just because I don't like to. When I got calls from pollsters, I'd just say "I'm not interested in participating, good bye"

Last edited by bonzombiekitty; 15th July 2020 at 05:57 AM.
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Old 15th July 2020, 05:56 AM   #639
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
You tell them!.
Certainly, everyone is rational.
I'm not even sure what point you are trying to make anymore.

Is your argument that there are enough people who think that pollsters who called them are trying to scam them AND will lie to to pollster to prevent the scam rather than just hang up AND such people are heavily weighted towards one candidate that it would make a significant error in polling?

That sounds pretty ridiculous to me.
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Old 15th July 2020, 06:02 AM   #640
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Originally Posted by bonzombiekitty View Post
In the context of personal information that has any real value to a person trying to scam someone or some other nefarious purpose? No, not really.

Again, if you are concerned about the possibility of a person calling you is trying to gleam personal information from you for some reason, just hang up the phone.

Personally, I don't answer polls just because I don't like to. When I got calls from pollsters, I'd just say "I'm not interested in participating, good bye"
Fine advice. Alternately, If one thinks the caller is looking for specific information, one might choose to give false information. If one fears that they are in an environment wherein certain political viewpoints are goodthink, and others badthink, they might choose to give the answer that indicates they are in the goodthink cohort.

Human behavior encompasses many different responses to the same stimuli. Why that would be controversial, I have no idea.
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