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Tags Coronavirus , Sweden incidents , Sweden issues

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Old 31st July 2020, 04:05 PM   #1521
dann
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Tourism might still be possible if everybody arriving from abroad is tested and quarantined for as long as it takes to process the tests. I actually thought that this was their intention.
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 31st July 2020, 04:12 PM   #1522
dann
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Friday:
Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, July 31, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 568 (5,743) 45* 40 *322 new cases according to SVT.se.
USA: 473 (156,712) 67,941* 18,865 *still incoming.
Denmark: 106 (615) 64 3
Finland: 59 (329) 9 0
Norway: 47 (255) 9 1
Iceland: 29 (10) 13 0
Iceland has 50 active cases. Faroe Islands 36, New Zealand 20.

No new cases in the Faroe Islands, so maybe they got it completely under control again.
Søfolk bringer corona til Færøerne (MaritimeDenmark.dk, July 30, 2020)
Seamen bring corona to the Faroe Islands

Related: Coronavirus Found in Semen (HealthLine, May 14, 2020 – Sorry, couldn’t help myself! )
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 31st July 2020, 04:53 PM   #1523
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
Tourism might still be possible if everybody arriving from abroad is tested and quarantined for as long as it takes to process the tests. I actually thought that this was their intention.

I thought it was, but then a single test isn't going to be enough. Someone who caught the virus just a couple of days ago will still test negative. You need to test on arrival, then go immediately to airport hotel quarantine, and retest on day five. If both tests are negative then it's pretty unlikely anyone will get through and if someone does the TeTrIs operation should be up to coping with such small numbers. You'd think.

But then they presumably thought it was up to coping with the small number of infected people who would get in if they just tested once. And clearly that wasn't the case.

The NZ system of a full two weeks quarantine and I think three tests seems to be the only one that's acceptably secure, and even then it only works if the protocols are followed rigorously.
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Old 1st August 2020, 12:17 AM   #1524
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I can see how that would put a damper on tourism!

Cuba will be opening up for tourism, which is very precarious in a country with much fewer ressources than Iceland, but they will limit it to particular tourist ressorts and not let people go to Havana, for instance. In spite of a very efficient lockdown and reopening, they still have flare ups when people relax and forget about PPE and social distancing, leading to admonitions like this one: Everyone (Granma.cu, July 28, 2020)
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 1st August 2020, 12:30 AM   #1525
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I thought it was, but then a single test isn't going to be enough. Someone who caught the virus just a couple of days ago will still test negative. You need to test on arrival, then go immediately to airport hotel quarantine, and retest on day five. If both tests are negative then it's pretty unlikely anyone will get through and if someone does the TeTrIs operation should be up to coping with such small numbers. You'd think.

But then they presumably thought it was up to coping with the small number of infected people who would get in if they just tested once. And clearly that wasn't the case.

The NZ system of a full two weeks quarantine and I think three tests seems to be the only one that's acceptably secure, and even then it only works if the protocols are followed rigorously.
2 tests day 3 and day 12.
Several day 3 negatives and day 12 positives so far, each time with a reminder from admin why day 12 is so important.
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Old 1st August 2020, 12:37 AM   #1526
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All positives get taken to a more rigorous facility where I imagine “escape” is harder
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Old 1st August 2020, 02:27 AM   #1527
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Day 3 after what? Estimated day of exposure if they are found by means of contact tracing?
And if the test on day three is negative, do they then stay in isolation until the test on day 12 clears them?
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 1st August 2020, 03:27 AM   #1528
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
Day 3 after what? Estimated day of exposure if they are found by means of contact tracing?
And if the test on day three is negative, do they then stay in isolation until the test on day 12 clears them?
Ah ok.
All people arriving on any inbound flight to New Zealand are masked and taken by bus to one of 28 or so quarantine hotels in 4 cities under army and police guard.
Tested on day 3, if positive reported in daily statistics and transferred to a medically supported hotel.
If clear day 3 they are all tested day 12 and a significant number of cases have emerged.
They are then transferred to the medically enabled and more secure facility.
A question I can’t answer right now is whether their stay is open ended
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Old 1st August 2020, 04:33 AM   #1529
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Originally Posted by Samson
If clear day 3 they are all tested day 12 and a significant number of cases have emerged.

That's the bit Iceland weren't doing and that seems to have been their downfall.
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Old 1st August 2020, 05:11 AM   #1530
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
We're currently contact-tracing the newest cluster which seems to relate to an Amazon warehouse and a local pharmacy. This appears to be unconnected to the call centre cluster, which we've heard no more about. It's 12 days since that emerged and there were no new cases in that region today, which is encouraging.

Spoke too soon. Apparently someone involved in the Sitel cluster has been connected to the Inverclyde cluster. A number of businesses are involved and the contact tracers are running around like busy little bees.

Link between Covid cluster and call centre outbreak

Quote:
A link has been established between a cluster of Covid-19 cases in Inverclyde and an earlier outbreak at a call centre in Lanarkshire.

NHS Greater Glasgow said 13 people had tested positive in the health board area, a rise of two since Thursday.

It also confirmed that one of those cases was linked to the Sitel call centre outbreak in Motherwell.

Staff at M&D Green Pharmacy in Port Glasgow have tested positive as well as a worker at Amazon's Gourock site.

Some individuals visited a number of businesses in the Greater Glasgow area, and health officials have warned they may have been infectious at the time.
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Old 1st August 2020, 09:38 AM   #1531
dann
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
That's the bit Iceland weren't doing and that seems to have been their downfall.

It is much too soon to consider travellers from countries like Denmark and Germany virus free at this point.
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 2nd August 2020, 12:31 AM   #1532
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Flere butikker melder allerede udsolgt af mundbind (TV2.dk, Aug. 1, 2020)
Face masks already sold out in several shops.

62 er nu smittet på slagteri i Ringsted: 'Det viser med al tydelighed, hvor hurtigt det kan gå' (DR.dk, Aug. 1, 2020)
62 now infected at slaughterhouse in Ringsted: ’It makes it obvious how fast it can happen’.

Quote:
Anders Tegnell, statsepidemiolog – är tydlig med hur lite han vet.
Därför är det viktigt att erkänna att vi inte vet (Sydsvenskan.se, Aug. 1, 2020)
Anders Tegnell, national epidemiologist – makes it clear how little he knows
The reason why it’s important to realize that we don’t know - Apparently, it's a Tegnell fan who doesn't realize that Tegnell uses not knowing as an excuse for many of the measures in the Swedish strategy even when he often should have known but is just in denial about knowledge that doesn't suit him - like the success of New Zealand's strategy, which he simply declares "impossible."

Köpenhamn vaknar till liv – och välkomnar de svenska turisterna (Sydsvenskan.se, Aug. 1, 2020)
Copenhagen wakes up – and welcomes Swedis tourists - We haveing been asleep till now – and some of us would have preferred to see you next year instead.

Dubbla utmaningar för vården: Bekymrade (SvenskaDagbladet.se, Aug. 1, 2020)
Doubled challenges for care workers: Disconcerted - Care workers have been told that they should be prepared for a rise in cases after the summer holidays.

Kilometerlånga köer på Öresundsbron mot Danmark (SVT.se, Aug. 1, 2020)
Kilometer-long line of cars on the Øresund Bridge to go to Denmark - I really, really, really don’t think this is a good idea at this point.

Pridefestivalen blir digital: ”Det är mycket fix och tricks” (SVT.se, Aug. 1, 2020)
The Pride Festival goes digital: ”There are many complications and tricks” - And Anders Tegnell is one of the speakers.

From yesterday:
Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Aug. 1, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 568 (5,743) 45* 40 *322 new cases according to SVT.se No numbers on weekends.
USA: 477 (157,898) 67,941* 18,720 *still incoming.
Denmark: 106 (615) 64 3 No number on weekends.
Finland: 59 (329) 11 0
Norway: 47 (255) 9 1
Iceland: 29 (10) 8 0
Iceland has 58 active cases. Faroe Islands 36, New Zealand 22.
Apparently no new cases in the Faroe Islands after the Russian invasion.
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 2nd August 2020, 03:42 PM   #1533
dann
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In Denmark, there have been no protests against the recommendations that face masks be used - in particular on public transport:

Salg af mundbind mangedoblet: 'Vi har solgt 10.000 på en time' (DR.dk, Aug. 2, 2020)
The sale of face masks multiplied: ’We have sold 10,000 in one hour’

In Sweden, the media are ambiguous, but many seem to be warming up to the idea:

Debatten om munskydd sliter isär samhällen (Sydsvenska Dagbladet, Aug 1, 2020)
The debate about face masks tear apart societies

Quote:
Det nordiska motståndet mot munskydd luckras upp när semestrarna går mot sitt slut. I Sverige säger regeringen att munskydd inte är en politisk fråga men det är inte hela sanningen.
Sverige allt ensammare i mundskyddsfrågan (SydsvenskaDagbladet.se, Aug. 2, 2020)
The Nordic opposition to face masks is dwindling, as the holidays are ending. In Sweden, the government says that face masks aren’t a political question, but that is not the whole truth.
Sweden is more and more alone in its attitude to face masks

Quote:
– Det är mycket bättre om man kan hålla avstånd, säger statsepidemiolog Anders Tegnell
(..)
Folkhälsomyndigheten har hittills valt att inte rekommendera munskydd eftersom ”ett munskydd som kliar och åker ner under näsan bidrar till att händerna ofta rör mun, ögon och näsa vilket kan öka risken för smittspridning”.
Och enligt en ny studie publicerad i den vetenskapliga tidskriften The Lancet ger munskydd endast ett begränsat skydd mot smittan. Åtminstone för den som bär masken. Däremot skyddas omgivningen.
”Munskydd är inte säkert” (Aftonbladet.se, Aug. 2, 2020)
-Social distancing is much better, says national epidemiologist Anders Tegnell
(…)
So far, the Public Health Agency has declined to recommend face masks since ”a face mask that tickles and gets below the nose contributes to making people's hands touch touch their mouths, ears and noses more often, which may increase the risk of transmission of the infection.”
And according to a new study published in the scientific journal The Lancet, face masks only offer limited protection from infection. At least for the one wearing the mask. But (!) that person’s surroundings are protected.
”Face masks aren’t safe”

Anders Tegnell still doesn’t seem to get the point that it isn’t a question of either face masks or social distancing. Or else, he is deliberately trying to confuse people - much like Trump in the USA.
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 2nd August 2020, 03:45 PM   #1534
dann
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Sunday:
Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Aug. 2, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 568 (5,743) 45* 40 *322 new cases according to SVT.se No new numbers on weekends.
USA: 478 (158,323) 47,944* 18,623 *still incoming.
Denmark: 106 (615) 64 3 No new numbers on weekends.
Finland: 59 (329) 10 0
Norway: 47 (255) 10 1
Iceland: 29 (10) 14 0
Iceland has 72 active cases. Faroe Islands 33, New Zealand 25.

In the latest outbreak(s), Faroese nationals were isolated after contact with Russian crew members, but turned out not to be infected:
Quote:
On 19 July, a foreign family of three were tested positive at their entry into the Faroe Islands; they were placed in quarantine.
On 24 July, a crew member on the Russian trawler AK-0749 Karelia docking in Klaksvík had tested Covid-19 positive, and later the same day another crew member was hospitalised with corona-like symptoms. On the following day 30 crew members of 77 were tested, including the 2 hopitalized and 23 of these tested Covid 19 positive. 8 Faroese people have been in contact with the crew and were quarantined. On 26 July Karelia left the Faroe Islands. Faroese authorities had urged the ship’s captain to return to Russia immediately due to the possibility of some of the infected sailors needing urgent treatment, but in stead the trawler was heading for further fishing in NEAFC (North East Atlantic Fisheries Commission) waters northeast of the Faroe Islands.
On 28 July all 23 crew members from the Lithuanian cargo ship Cassiopea, which was docked next to the Russian trawler Karelia in Klaksvík were tested, and six of them got a positive result. This brings the total number of confirmed cases in the Faroe Islands to 220, and the number of active cases to 32, all 32 cases are foreigners, 29 sailors and 3 tourists. Even though most of them had left the islands, they would remain listed as active cases in the Faroe Islands for two weeks.
On 30 July another five sailors aboard Cassiopea test positive for COVID-19. This means that a total of 11 crew members from Cassiopea have tested positive, and that the Faroe Islands on that day had 37 active cases registered. The crew were told to stay on the ship. Later that day Cassiopea left the Faroe Islands with most of its crew heading for Las Palmas. Four sailors from Cassiopea remained in the Faroe Islands, three of them which had been tested positive were isolated in a hotel and the fourth who was tested negative was quarantined also in a hotel.
COVID-19 pandemic in the Faroe Islands: July (Wikipedia)
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx

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Old 2nd August 2020, 06:15 PM   #1535
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
That's the bit Iceland weren't doing and that seems to have been their downfall.
Today:

"The second case is a man in his 20s who arrived in New Zealand from Switzerland via Amsterdam and Seoul on July 20.


"He has been staying at the Sudima Hotel in Christchurch and tested negative around day 3 of his stay, then tested positive at his second routine test."

The Ministry of Health say this case again emphasises the importance of testing returnees in managed isolation twice before they are able to leave the facility."

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12353163

This seems simple and effective, but it is vital to recall the first 1800 odd were released with no testing, and Ardern defended this potential disaster by saying the 14 day quarantine underpinned the strategy. In other words this guy if asymptomatic would have been out in 2 days with potentially full blown covid. This is my assessment and needs more analysis.

Better to be lucky than smart, and frankly there are thousands of anecdotes confirming New Zealand was very very very lucky.
It seems we are tightening all the time, and this is hardly surprising.

eta: hard to decide where to post but there is a theme of comparing New Zealand and Sweden as contrasting approaches.

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Old 3rd August 2020, 09:30 AM   #1536
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I think Scotland has been very lucky so far, but how long can that continue? Infection rates have more than doubled in the past three to four weeks, although that's from a very low baseline. We were down to an average of only 7.1 new cases per day and we're now on 20.

This is partly because we're getting better at finding cases than we were, but also partly because we're seeing more cases. We're now on our fourth cluster since we started to ease up restrictions but so far we seem to have been able to contain them.

First we had Annan, and they say it's gone - but there were three isolated new cases in that region last week when previously cases were rare.

Then we had the Sitel call centre (25 cases), and it looks to be gone also, except someone from that cluster is implicated in setting off the next cluster in Inverclyde. That's supposedly contained but they announced today that one more person has tested positive in relation to that cluster bringing that total to 14.

Now we've got Aberdeen, where someone who was in a pub on 26th July later went down with the virus and now the cluster is up to 27 people. It's too early to say whether they'll be able to get on top of this one too.

I'd say that's lucky, in that so far there has been no flare-up into sustained community transfer from any of these clusters. Given what's going on in Melbourne I'm really quite nervous about this because you can't keep being lucky forever. New Zealand's virtue is that it consolidated its lucky gains and didn't just cross its fingers and expect the run of luck would continue indefinitely.

Meanwhile the other regions of Scotland are still just seeing the odd case every so often, but "so often" is a bit more often than it used to be. They say they'd like to see our average daily numbers down to about 5 cases per day and now we've gone from being close to being four times that. And the schoolchildren are going back next week.

I was talking to a friend in England who is in one of the restricted zones in Yorkshire. In the very small area round their house there were six cases just in the last week. (England are publishing data right down to very local groups of streets.) I said, "we've only had six cases since the beginning of June, so that's in two months." He said, you mean in the village? I said no, in the whole of the Borders. There was a stunned silence.

Actually I see we've lost the 26th June case so that must be the one that was later reversed as a false positive. So we've had cases on 1st June, 5th June, 11th June, 18th July and 25th July. Only five in two months. At one point we went five weeks without a new case. Now nine days since that last one. And we have open pubs and restaurants and a long open border with England. How long can this last?

Going back to the Sweden comparison, it's interesting that we're not hearing about anything similar to the Melbourne situation happening in Sweden. I suspect people in Sweden are in general more cautious because they know the virus was never contained, whereas there seems to have been a degree of complacency in Australia. Nevertheless I don't know why they're having such poor success in containing it now because they're cracking down pretty hard. (I suppose the herd immunity nuts are going to say that Sweden has herd immunity so they're fine but that's nonsense. They're being hit pretty hard but they just don't seem to be reporting the big flare-ups seen elsewhere.
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Old 3rd August 2020, 12:06 PM   #1537
dann
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I think Scotland has been very lucky so far, but how long can that continue? Infection rates have more than doubled in the past three to four weeks, although that's from a very low baseline. We were down to an average of only 7.1 new cases per day and we're now on 20.

That is still much better than here:

207 er bekræftet smittet med coronavirus siden fredag (DR.dk, Aug. 3, 2020)
207 confirmed cases of infection with coronavirus since Friday

Epidemien kan komme ud af kontrol: Kåre Mølbak er bekymret over udviklingen (DR.dk, Aug 3, 2020)
The epidemic may get out of control: Kåre Mølbak is worried about the development
- See the graph of the development since the first week of July. It will take more than face masks to make up for this, I'm afraid.

41 coronasmittede på norsk færge - to danskere er sat i karantæne (DR.dk, Aug. 3, 2020)
41 cases on Norwegian cruise ship – two Danes quarantined


Sweden has had 590 new cases since Friday (SVT.se, Aug. 3, 2020). And consider that they don't test very much ...
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx

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Old 3rd August 2020, 01:09 PM   #1538
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Going back to the Sweden comparison, it's interesting that we're not hearing about anything similar to the Melbourne situation happening in Sweden. I suspect people in Sweden are in general more cautious because they know the virus was never contained, whereas there seems to have been a degree of complacency in Australia. Nevertheless I don't know why they're having such poor success in containing it now because they're cracking down pretty hard. (I suppose the herd immunity nuts are going to say that Sweden has herd immunity so they're fine but that's nonsense. They're being hit pretty hard but they just don't seem to be reporting the big flare-ups seen elsewhere.

I think that the problem is that the Public Health Agency in Sweden doesn't tell the public about flare ups. For instance, when journalists discovered that some (poor) neighborhoods in Stockholm had many more cases and deaths than others (the affluent ones), they needed special permission to get hold of the data to prove it. Sweden only gives access to the numbers on a regional level. I think that they claim that it is in order to protect people's right to privacy!
This could be the reason why we hear about flare ups in Norway and Denmark but only rarely about any in Sweden - in spite of their much higher number of infections.

In a discussion with the Swedish skeptics (and 'skeptics'), some of them claimed that open schools haven't contributed to the spread of the virus. When I was trying to find Swedish examples (I have only found a few), one SVT article mentioned that the journalists knew about an outbreak at a school because parents had contacted them! And since this was back in April, there was no real testing and contact tracing (I wonder if there would be any today), so nobody knows who infected whom!

In this way, Anders Tegnell and the Public Health Agency can continue to claim that schoolchildren don't spread the virus: That's the advantage (for them) of flying blind!
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"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 3rd August 2020, 01:56 PM   #1539
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The UK's troubled response to the coronavirus pandemic became even more confused on Monday, as government guidance seemingly at odds with itself rolled out across England, pushing the four nations of the UK further apart. (CNN, Aug. 3, 2020)
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 3rd August 2020, 03:02 PM   #1540
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Originally Posted by dann View Post

Hmmm. England is turning into a bit of a mess, in partlcular because the guidelines and regulations are opaque and in many ways nonsensical. On the other hand there are vast regions of England that are doing fine, and there should be no reason to shut down Northumberland just because Yorkshire is in trouble.

England's schools don't start till September. Ours start next week. This is a worry, although we do have a contingency plan. I think Nicola Sturgeon would have been slower to open up, but not being independent it's difficult to diverge too much when people are screaming "but England has allowed x to re-open!" even if the entire point is that England should not have done that.

CNN missed a huge point in that last paragraph. Scotland's death toll is an absolute tragedy, but nearly all of it happened before mid-May, which is when Sturgeon abandoned her destructive policy of appeasement and "lockstep" with English decisions. I don't think I'll ever forgive her for that. But since she saw the light and diverged from England, we've been doing a lot better. If we were able to diverge a bit more I think we'd do better still
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Old 3rd August 2020, 03:50 PM   #1541
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Here's today's new cases for the whole UK. I think NI isn't quite as bad as it looks because three days worth of new cases have been dumped on Monday. Rheged looks a lot better than it did and if they can get a grip then Scotland will feel a lot safer. Northumberland is already protecting the Borders to some extent. If people from Kelso go drinking in Berwick they probably won't bring anything back home with them.



You can see where the current cluster is. That bit in the north-east with Aberdeen featuring prominently. I hope they can contain that.
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Old 3rd August 2020, 10:25 PM   #1542
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From Monday:
Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Aug. 3, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 568 (5,744) 45* 43 *590 new cases since Friday, according to [url=https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/senaste-nytt-om-coronaviruset]SVT.se[/url
USA: 479 (158,929) 48,622 18,725
Denmark: 106 (616) 207* 2 *new cases since Friday
Finland: 59 (329) 13 0
Norway: 47 (256) 44 1
Iceland: 29 (10) 8 0
Iceland has 80 active cases. Faroe Islands 33, New Zealand 27.
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 3rd August 2020, 10:39 PM   #1543
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Denmark's second-largest city Aarhus appears to have had two super-spreader events last week: Fans of the local football club celebrating coming in as #3. And there was a large gathering of people at the Aarhus University.
Det er nok en 'supersprednings-begivenhed': Smittetal i Aarhus mangedoblet over weekenden (DR.dk, Aug. 3, 2020)

The town Ringsted with the outbreak in a slaughterhouse mentioned recently, now 79 cases of 900 tested employees, gets its own testing centre:
Coronaudbrud fylder hos lokalbefolkning: Nu oprettes nyt testcenter (DR.dk, Aug. 3, 2020)
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 4th August 2020, 12:00 PM   #1544
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In Denmark, where the numbers have been rising again for 4-5 weeks:

Mølbak: Kan ikke anbefale en yderligere genåbning (DR.dk, Aug. 4, 2020)
Mølbak: Doesn’t recommend reopening any further

Udsæt genåbningen: Ekspert frygter superspreder på diskotekerne (DR.dk, Aug. 4, 2020)
Postpone the reopening: Expert fears superspreading at discoteques

Sundhedsminister: - Kan ikke være med til at åbne diskoteker og natklubber (TV2.dk, Aug 4, 2020)
Minister of health: - Won’t participate in reopening discoteques and nightclubs

Eksperter mener ikke, at nattelivet kan åbne før næste år (TV2.dk, Aug. 4, 2020
Experts don’t think that nightlife can reopen till next year - i.e. after people have been vaccinated

Halvdelen af de nye coronasmittede i Aarhus er fra somalisk mindretal (DR.dk, Aug 4, 2020)
50 percent of the new cases in Aarhus are in the Somali minority

Meanwhile in Sweden where the numbers are lower than they used to be but still a lot higher than in Denmark:

Positiv virustrend håller i sig i Sverige (Sydsvenskan.se, Aug. 4, 2020)
Still positive virus trend in Sweden - Tegnell plays down the fact that the countries that he points to are still doing much better than Sweden

Quote:
En ny studie från Karolinska institutet stödjer användningen av tygmunskydd för att minska spridningen av corona.
Men statsepidemiolog Anders Tegnell gör tummen ner.
– Det har inte fungerat speciellt bra i många länder, där man redan haft munskyddsregler på plats. Där har man nu ett ökande antal fall, säger han.
[When the journalist mentions that the Public Health Agency will have to teach people how to use face masks, Tegnell says:]
– Det finns mycket sådant underlag på diverse olika platser i världen redan. Men trots det så vet vi ju att det inte har fungerat speciellt bra i många länder. Vi kan ju se på Spanien, Österrike, Tyskland och flera länder där man redan har haft munskyddsregler på plats, att där har man nu ett ökande antal fall. Så helt uppenbart är det här inte en lösning som kommer att rädda oss alla. Det kommer krävas mycket mer komplicerade åtgärder än instruktionsfilmer.
Trots positiv studie om munskydd - Tegnell gör tummen ner (Aftonbladet.se, Aug. 4, 2020)
In spite of positive study about face masks - Tegnell turns his thumb down
A new study from Karolinska Institute supports the use of face masks to decrease the spread of corona.
But national epidemiologist Anders Tegnell turns his thumb down.
- I hasn't worked particularly well in many countries where they already had regulations about face masks. There, the numbers are now increasing.
(...)
- There is a lot of data from different places in the world already. But in spite of this, we know that it has not worked particularly well in many countries. We can look at Spain, Austria, Germany and several other countries where they already had face-mask regulations in place, and they now have an increasing number of cases. So this is quite evidently not a solution that will save us all. Much more complicated steps will be required than instructional videos.

- This ******* wants people to die! He actually argues that since face masks alone don't 'save us all,' they really aren't worth considering seriously. As if any of his, 'complicated' measures, I guess, had saved everybody! And then he pretends that it is too complicated for Swedes to understand how to use face masks properly.
I am beginning to think that if I lived in Sweden, I would be tempted to join the people who send him death threats.
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 4th August 2020, 01:03 PM   #1545
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I am so glad Jason Leitch has changed his tune. He hasn't admitted he was wrong, or even that his message has changed, but right now I'm not making a big deal about that. If he'd remained on the side of Tegnell I might have been tempted to some direct action.
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Old 4th August 2020, 04:20 PM   #1546
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I am exasperated by Tegnell. He appears everywhere, and he almost always refers to 'studies showing (whatever)' without being specific about which (alleged) studies he's referring to.
I just read three fairly short Swedish articles about children's alleged insignificant contribution to the spread of the virus. These two:


Flera frågetecken finns kring hur barn smittar (SverigesRadio, Aug. 3, 2020)
More questions about how children transmit the virus

Lärare löper mindre covid 19-risk än andra (Läraren.se, May. 29, 2020)
Teachers are not as exposed to the risk of getting Covid-19 as others

The third article is from Tuesday night and contains this short quotation from Jonas Ludvigsson, pediatrician and professor of clinical epidemiology at the Karolinska Institute:

Quote:
"Jag är säker på att barn smittar men de smittar mindre. Det gör att jag inte tror att skolorna är en grogrund för dödligheten i pandemin. I alla fall inte att de driver den. Däremot kan de säkert sprida smitta i viss mån och inte minst från barn till barn."
Så att det inte skulle vara någon skillnad alls mellan hur vuxna och barn sprider smittan verkar inte stämma.
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/s...-coronaviruset Aug. 4, 2020 – 22:53
"I am certain (!) that children transmit the virus, but they do so to a minor degree. This means that I don't think (!?) that schools are a breeding ground for the mortality of the pandemic. They certainly aren't the driving force of it. However, they can probably (?) transmit the infection to some extent in particular from child to child."
So it doesn't seem to be true that there is no difference between how adults and children spread the infection.

But there are no links to the research he bases these assumptions on. I find it difficult to understand that recent tests of children show that their noses contain much more virus than the noses of adults, and yet, for some reason, they aren't as infectious as adults - and when they do infect, they mainly primarily infect other children.

ETA: The article from May 29 contains this gem:
Quote:
– Det är statistiskt säkerställt att lärare drabbas mindre, det är en tydlig statistisk skillnad mot andra yrkesgrupper, säger Anders Tegnell till Läraren.se.
– Jag skulle inte vilja säga att det är X antal gånger mindre än andra grupper. Men tittar man på hur ofta lärare dyker upp som sjukhusvårdade fall så är de klart mindre drabbade än andra, säger Anders Tegnell.[/i]
It has been made certain statistically that teachers are affected less, there is a clear statistical difference from other professions, says Anders Tegnell to Läraren.se.
– I won't say that it is so-and-so-many times less than other groups. But if you look at how often teachers appear as hospitalized cases, then they aren't as affected as others, says Anders Tegnell.

I am not surprised that he bases everything on hospitalizations instead of infections since Sweden only tested people who were seriously ill from Covid-19 and didn't even follow up on infections at schools. But then he also ignores that certain groups of Swedish society, like in most other countries, have much higher death tolls: first of all immigrants! And if Sweden is similar to Denmark in this respect, very few teachers, in particular elderly teachers, are immigrants, so there is reason to assume that their health in general is better than that of bus drivers, taxi drivers etc. And this will probably lead to a lower rate of mortality and also to a lower rate of hospitalizations, which again means that hospitalizations probably aren't the best way to know about the infection rate of people in different professions.
Tests would be the way to know, but as we already know, Sweden didn't really do testing ...
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx

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Old 4th August 2020, 04:23 PM   #1547
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Tuesday:
Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Aug. 4, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 569 (5,747) 37* 38 *169, according to SVT.se.
USA: 484 (160,256) 53,601* 18,407 *still incoming.
Denmark: 106 (616) 77* 3 * considering the size of the countries (but not the rate of testing), 77 is almost as bad as Sweden’s 169.
Finland: 60 (331) 17 1
Norway: 47 (256) 14 1
Iceland: 29 (10) 3 0
Iceland has 83 active cases. Faroe Islands 35, New Zealand 22.
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx

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Old Yesterday, 03:26 AM   #1548
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We haven't had any confirmed virus deaths for 19 days, and only one death in 27 days. It's practically getting spooky.

I know now that there is one wrinkle in this. Scotland doesn't count the long-haulers as confirmed deaths, but moves them to the suspected category. So if you test positive for the virus, get sick, get hospitalised and eventually die more than 30 days after your positive test, you go on the suspected list not the confirmed list. We did have eight suspected deaths last week (they only report suspected deaths weekly). Actually that would be the week before last, because last week's figure is due out this afternoon.

But most people who die of covid do it within 30 days of testing positive. Three to four weeks ago we certainly had our lowest rate of new infections but it never dropped below 60 a week. It's difficult to believe that nobody is dying as a result of all this. I suppose though at that level of infection we could expect maybe a death a fortnight so perhaps it's just the way the numbers are falling. On the other hand that sort of assumes that we're finding all the positive cases and I don't think that's at all likely. Hmmm.


ETA: Seven "suspected" deaths this week. Some will be covid, some won't be. It's not an exact science. It's still just one a day at the very worst, but it does give some idea of the possible real level of infection out there. It will be interesting to see what the modellers say tomorrow.
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Old Yesterday, 04:13 AM   #1549
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Oh hell's teeth, we've had 64 new cases today. This is definitely not good.

The Aberdeen pub cluster is now on 54 cases. Aberdeen is being (at least partially) locked down.
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Old Yesterday, 09:45 AM   #1550
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Hmmm.

Sweden's economy hit less hard by pandemic

Did Sweden's coronavirus strategy succeed or fail?

Well, obviously if you don't take care homes into consideration, maybe it wasn't so bad. A lot of countries could say that. Who thinks condemning elderly people to a horrible death is something you can just exclude from your considerations?
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Old Yesterday, 09:48 AM   #1551
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
We haven't had any confirmed virus deaths for 19 days, and only one death in 27 days. It's practically getting spooky.
Denmark 6 deaths in 19 days, Finland 2, Norway 2, Sweden 154. (TV2.dk)

Quote:
But most people who die of covid do it within 30 days of testing positive. Three to four weeks ago we certainly had our lowest rate of new infections but it never dropped below 60 a week. It's difficult to believe that nobody is dying as a result of all this. I suppose though at that level of infection we could expect maybe a death a fortnight so perhaps it's just the way the numbers are falling. On the other hand that sort of assumes that we're finding all the positive cases and I don't think that's at all likely. Hmmm.
Before the arrival of the Russian trawler, the Faroe Islands had had 185 cases. So far no deaths, but stil one (Russian, I think) in ICU.
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old Yesterday, 09:55 AM   #1552
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post

But notice this:
Quote:
Sweden's unemployment rate of 9% remains the highest in the Nordics, up from 7.1% in March.

The comparison with Italy and Spain should take into consideration that the two countries rely heavily on tourism.
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old Yesterday, 10:04 AM   #1553
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Yesterday, the health authorities thought that the rising number of cases in Aarhus was due to superspreadder events, but:
Styrelse kan ikke koble smitte-boom til én begivenhed (DR.dk, Aug. 5, 2020)
Public Health Agency can’t connect flare up to just one event
- The rising number of cases in Aarhus seems to reflect general spread in the community

112 bekræftet smittet med coronavirus - største daglige stigning i tre måneder - 42 af de nye tilfælde er registreret i Aarhus. (DR.dk, Aug. 5, 2020)
112 new confirmed cases – biggest dayly rise in three months – 42 of the new cases are registered in Aarhus
- Biggest rise in daily numbers since May 7.

Statens Serum Institut: Bekymrende udvikling i Danmark (TV2.dk, Aug. 5, 2020)
Statens Serum Intitut: Diconcerting development in Denmark
- New daily cases have doubled in a week, from 247 to 494, and there are infections in more parts of the country, no longer centered in and around Copenhagen

Professor forstår DSB - men ikke Sundhedsstyrelsen: Hvorfor ikke bare gøre mundbind til et krav i toget? (DR.dk, Aug. 5, 2020)
Professor understands the DSB (Danish State Railways)– but not the Public Health Agency: Why not simply make the use of face masks on trains mandatory?
The public health agency has only recommended using face masks on trains, not made it mandatory, but the railways have already changed their policy of requiring reservations as if everbody is already wearing masks, which they aren't.
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx

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Old Yesterday, 10:10 AM   #1554
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Wednesday:
Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Aug. 5, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 570 (5,760) 66* 41 *359, according to SVT.se.
Denmark: 106 (616) 112 2
Finland: 60 (331) 29 1
Norway: 47 (256) 26 1
Iceland: 29 (10) 8 0
Iceland has 91 active cases, Faroe Islands 49, New Zealand 24.
14 new cases in the Faroe Islands – quite a lot in a population of only 52,000. I don't know if the new cases are due to community spread or people arriving from abroad.
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old Yesterday, 10:54 AM   #1555
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I think Iceland, the Faroes and New Zealand all count cases that have emerged in quarantine and keep them on the active cases list for 14 days even if they have never come in contact with the general population or even if they've left the country. I've not heard that there's any evidence of community spread going on, although of course there might be.
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Old Today, 01:00 AM   #1556
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Neither have I, but after the Russian and Lithuanian ships have both left, 14 new cases are a lot - after months without a single new case. It's possible that they have started testing the crews of all foreign vessels arriving in the islands. I think they only tested the Russians because two of them got really ill with Covid-19.
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old Today, 02:00 AM   #1557
dann
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Press briefing about the flare up in Aarhus (DR.dk, Aug. 6, 2020 – Breaking News)

Klart för masstestning av skåningarna (SVT.se, Aug. 6, 2020)
Ready to mass test people in Scania - It is a test for antibodies, not the virus test
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old Today, 03:04 AM   #1558
Rolfe
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
Neither have I, but after the Russian and Lithuanian ships have both left, 14 new cases are a lot - after months without a single new case. It's possible that they have started testing the crews of all foreign vessels arriving in the islands. I think they only tested the Russians because two of them got really ill with Covid-19.

I thought they were testing everyone who went ashore as routine?
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Old Today, 03:41 AM   #1559
dann
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I don't know about that. But I doubt that a Faroese harbour constitutes much of a border. I also think that a couple of Russian and Lithuanian sailors might be able to find a way around that.

According to this report in the Faroese media, we are talking about community spread now (Google translation Icelandic-English, improved just a little by me - corona infection was coronary heart disease in Google's translation, for instance. As for the rest, your guess is as good as mine):

Quote:
– Fleiri nýggir tilburðir av koronusmittu eru staðfestir í dag, enn tað vórðu í gjár. Tað sigur Lars Fodgaard Møller, landslækni, við útvarpið.
Hann vil ikki siga, hvussu nógvar nýggjar tilburðir, talan er um, men tað eru fleiri tilburðir enn í gjár, tá 14 nýggir tilburðir vórðu staðfestir, sigur landslæknin.
Umleið 1.500-1.600 kanningar kanningar vórðu gjørdar í gjár. Landssjúkrahúsið gjørdi 868 royndir, og privatu fyritøkurnar gjørdu umleið 700, sambært landslæknanum.
Aftur í dag eru langar bíðirøðir við Landssjúkrahúsið og iNOVA, har fyritøkan Thetis heldur til. Klokkan 10 vóru framvegis 278 royndir, sum ikki vóru lidnar, og tí er endaliga talið ikki greitt enn.
Óvist hvussu nógvir: Fleiri nýggir tilburðir (Kringvarp Føroya, Aug. 6, 2020)
- More recent cases of corona infection have been confirmed today, but are still in the making, says Lars Fodgaard Møller, the national doctor, on the radio.
He does not want to say, no matter how many new events, the number is about, but there are still more events in the pipeline, 14 new events were confirmed, the national doctor wins.
Around 1,500-1,600 surveys were surveyed. The National Hospital performed 868 rounds, and the private companies performed a round 700, according to the national doctor.
Again today there are long queues at Landssjúkrahusið and iNOVA, the company Thetis continues. At 10 o'clock there were 278 rounds, some were not dead, and ten are not considered paid yet.
Uncertainty is enough: More new events - the new events are probably new cases, and I assume the surveys are tests.
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx

Last edited by dann; Today at 03:44 AM.
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Old Today, 04:45 AM   #1560
Rolfe
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We're having an alarming upsurge here. Coronavirus got into the Aberdeen nightlife scene as I said. Apparently they haven't identified the trigger case but suspect there were two people who were infectious and went pub-crawling in the city a week or two ago. The cluster is now 79 cases and there is concern about community spread. Consideration is being given to extending restrictions into Aberdeenshire which is a large rural area surrounding the city.

There were 67 new cases in the country today, with 39 of them in the Aberdeen/shire area although they haven't said how many of these have been directly linked to the cluster. Another 17 are in the Glasgow area to go with 14 yesterday so I think there is really something going on there. That's only 11 for the entire rest of the country. (Maybe even less as I suspect the Lanarkshire cases - 3 yesterday - are also likely to be related to the Glasgow region as a chunk of the Greater Glasgow conurbation is in South Lanarkshire.)

There is talk of looking at the Glasgow situation also to see what's going on. I hope that's cleared up without blanket restrictions being imposed on Glasgow people. Selfishly, because my friend who lives in Glasgow has invited me to go to Perthshire with her on Wednesday to spend a gift token afternoon tea voucher for two she received as a Christmas present. We have a booking at the hotel, but of course it was made in her name with her address and if there are restrictions on travel by people with Glasgow addresses then they won't take us. Even though I'm sitting in the safest part of mainland Scotland.

I think the huge difference between this cluster and the previous ones highlights the difference between pubs/clubs and other possible transmission events. The call centre and the private party scenes were quite quickly jumped on and dealt with, but the sheer number of dangerous contacts involved in pub-crawling puts it all into a different league. There are some noises being made about banning pub crawls, although I don't know how you do that. Another thing they ought to consider is making table seating and table service manadatory, with circulating between tables forbidden. I see small country pub/restaurants doing that anyway and I think the city centre nightlife needs to do the same. Treat a pub like a restaurant, your party occupies the table for the duration of your stay, drinks are brought to the table, and you don't get up and join another table. When you leave the table and chairs are sanitised before another party sits down.
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