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10th December 2020, 01:04 AM | #121 |
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The point is this was not an allergic reaction (so it is said). To give a technical explanation; allergic reactions are triggered by the immune system you eat egg and you have anti-egg antibodies (usually IgE) the binding of the antibody to the egg protein causes the body to release chemicals such as histamine and bradykinin that are the actual cause of the swelling, flushing, drop in blood pressure that occurs in a severe allergic reaction - anaphylaxis. However the chemicals (histamine, bradykinin etc.) can be released by other mechanisms that are not immune mediated and so not allergic. One common trigger in some people are angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor drugs such as enalapril or ramipril, morphine like drugs can also do this. These can trigger histamine release, but as a direct consequence of the way they work in the body, not because you are allergic to them, you do not have antibodies to the drug. This direct stimulation of histamine release without involvement of the immune system is called an anaphylactoid reaction. A blood test - serum tryptase done at the time of the reaction differentiates the two.
If these people had an anaphylactoid reaction it is irrelevant what they are allergic to, and potentially the reaction could occur in non allergic people. |
10th December 2020, 04:27 AM | #122 |
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Interesting. That's what I wanted to know. 52% effective. In that case, probably best to just go based on who is most vulnerable, and those who care for the vulnerable, and front line health care workers, and then so forth and so on.
If it had been 60% or 70% effective with a single dose, then it might make sense at least mathematically to get everyone a first dose before the second one. Except also, even in that case, get the old and otherwise most vulnerable people protected first. I suspect Japan is going to approve it later than Britain or the US, because they've always been rather slow to approve vaccines compared to other countries. Also, the infection rate and the death toll is lower. I've heard it might not be available here until next spring. There is one Japanese company developing a vaccine, but they are so far behind (I think they are just starting phase 2 trials). By the time they are ready for phase 3, everyone's going already be getting the other vaccines. It's going to be hard to recruit volunteers for a trial when there's already a proven vaccine available and you know you won't be getting a placebo. |
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10th December 2020, 10:39 AM | #123 |
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10th December 2020, 10:43 AM | #124 |
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10th December 2020, 11:09 AM | #125 |
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Interesting article about vaccine development for covid and future threats. Footnote: The Moderna vaccine was actually designed and ready for testing by Jan. 13.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020...ne-design.html |
10th December 2020, 01:26 PM | #126 |
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There's an additional problem relying on 50-60% effectiveness with one dose is we don't know how long that immunity lasts. It might only last a month without the second dose.
The effectiveness here is based on some pretty small numbers of COVID cases in a large sample size over a limited time frame. People got the vaccine or placebo. I believe there were about 30K of them. A dozen or so got infected, most of them in the placebo group and of the few who got infected in the vaccine group, none had serious disease. There were two additional factors to consider, one was the length of the study which I believe was only a few months and certainly was no longer than 6 given the time frame developing vaccine. The second issue which is important to consider is that the people who volunteered to be in this study would have also been on average more cautious trying to prevent infection. I don't imagine many anti-maskers were in the volunteer group. So when the vaccine manufacturer makes a claim that the vaccine was X% effective, that is based on a study with significant limitations. If we use the study results as a basis for decision making I think it's a pretty safe bet that an interval for the second dose has some leeway. So are we better off doubling the number of people we vaccinate early on (knowing there will be enough vaccine for those 2nd doses eventually) or are we better off vaccinating half as many people with both doses? Another consideration is the vaccine wasn't tested on too many people over 70-80 years old. They tend to have a poorer response to vaccines in general. If carrying out the vaccine program could divvy people up easily, I would think people over 70 (or 80) and people who are immunocompromised should get 2 doses on schedule, everyone else with intact immune systems should get one dose and a delayed 2nd dose. Keep in mind all of these people should consider themselves to be potentially contagious if they are exposed to the virus. IOW quarantine rules would be the same. What will be tricky is knowing when we should open back up. We need to knock the virus down then do meticulous contact tracing. People are going to jump the gun and that might mean it takes longer to knock the virus down. |
10th December 2020, 02:07 PM | #127 |
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10th December 2020, 02:08 PM | #128 |
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And yet it occurred in two people who used epipens for their serious allergy to something(s).
Other than excluding people with very severe allergic reactions, the guidelines we have here are now saying people should get the vaccine where access to emergency reactions exist. It's a relatively simple solution. |
10th December 2020, 11:44 PM | #129 |
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Yes people who have serious allergies probably have serious allergies because they are predisposed to have a cataclysmic release of histamine whatever the trigger. People can have immunologically similar allergies but the severity differs.
I was responding to the question 'what were they allergic to?'. I was making the point that the particular allergy was unimportant, since this was not an allergic reaction. Although it may seem nitpicking there is a difference between having an allergic reaction and people who have a history of severe allergies having an increased risk of a non-allergic serious adverse reaction. |
11th December 2020, 09:52 AM | #130 |
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The US, TV news networks are treating it like a done deal. With maps about where to go in your neighborhood to get an injection and showing a parking lot test run. Yet there will only be enough vaccine available next week for 1% of the population and only enough on order for 15% of the population.
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11th December 2020, 11:56 AM | #131 |
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11th December 2020, 12:20 PM | #132 |
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11th December 2020, 01:42 PM | #133 |
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Trump orders FDA chief to approve Pfizer vaccine today or resign.
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11th December 2020, 01:44 PM | #134 |
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11th December 2020, 01:45 PM | #135 |
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11th December 2020, 02:02 PM | #136 |
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At least one place in Pennsylvania is practicing with drive-through vaccine clinics. It doesn't seem like a bad idea. They're finding out it takes longer than expected. https://www.msnbc.com/katy-tur/watch...un-97567301634 |
11th December 2020, 02:41 PM | #137 |
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11th December 2020, 02:45 PM | #138 |
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11th December 2020, 07:32 PM | #139 |
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I can't speak for the networks, and indeed it's not out of the question that they're just being stupid about it. Maybe they are just looking for something positive to talk about amidst all the bad news. On the other hand, perhaps they're also trying to normalize the whole idea. If they keep making the point that the state is working hard to make the procedure efficient, and if they keep treating the vaccine as a fait accompli, perhaps it will make people more used to it and willing to accept it.
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11th December 2020, 07:48 PM | #140 |
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That's bizarre. The public won't have access to the vaccine for quite a while. So what are people going to think when they see this stuff then the vaccine isn't available for another month.
The people who had the vaccine reactions didn't have them until the next day. Waiting 15 minutes then driving off when we don't yet know the full extent of the allergic reactions seems a tad worrisome. |
11th December 2020, 07:49 PM | #141 |
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11th December 2020, 11:48 PM | #142 |
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14th December 2020, 07:38 PM | #143 |
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I wonder if there's a site to track how many jabs have actually been given in real time?
It's an enormous undertaking in terms of just the physical logistics of it all. I found these articles: Rollout of Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 Vaccine Slows in U.K. Due to Allergic-Reaction Monitoring (Wall Street Journal)
Quote:
Tracking vaccine distribution, state by state (Washington Post) While all of these sites typically have paywalls for most of their content, it seems that you can view these articles even without a subscription. In the case of the Wall Street Journal, there is a pop-up, but you can click the X in the corner to make it go away and still read the article. |
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14th December 2020, 08:03 PM | #144 |
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15th December 2020, 06:22 AM | #145 |
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In the US, it will be a supply and demand problem. Lots of demand and little supply.
Joe Biden pledged about 100 million doses/jabs by May 1st. That means 1 million doses/jabs need to be delivered to hospitals every work day. With luck there may be a total 15 million doses/jabs available in the next few weeks. But what happens after that? |
15th December 2020, 07:30 PM | #146 |
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With over 200,000 people testing positive every day, we need to vaccinate at least 1 million people/ day to get ahead of it. And it takes 2 doses of course.
With over 300 million people, it would take 600 million doses, so 600 days to fully vaccinate everybody at a rate of 1 million jabs per day. That's nearly 2 years. Can we push it higher? Maybe 2 million jabs per day? |
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15th December 2020, 10:31 PM | #147 |
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Are you sure about that?
All I've seen are claims that they had the reaction very soon afterwards, which would make sense. https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/e...id-19-vaccine/ Your input must be way out. Every year 51% of Americans have a 'flu jab in a short time frame with no problems, and it's going to be rolled out in stages, so I don't see much of an issue. |
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15th December 2020, 10:56 PM | #148 |
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I'm sure that's what I read in the report on these reactions. The issue of the epipens is being conflated with the actual reactions these people had.
From your link:
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The article says:
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The article explains the two kinds of reactions calling them both allergic reactions.
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A simple explanations without a lot of clutter:
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NIH: A Reliable Method for the Evaluation of the Anaphylactoid Reaction Caused by Injectable Drugs They do use guinea pigs and nude rats for the model. |
16th December 2020, 12:14 AM | #149 |
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16th December 2020, 12:26 AM | #150 |
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I think that if you want to send a message to the general public then it makes sense not to be strict about words, I would hope here that people do understand a release probably written by a 'coms' person may not be scientifically accurate. It is technically incorrect to call anaphylactoid reactions allergic, but for the general public since the reaction is indistinguishable to them from a true allergic reaction then it is reasonable to use this term about what they will see or suffer from*. The reactions were 'immediate' which is why there is a new requirement for people to be observed for 15 minutes post vaccination.
You may think my post was too detailed, and I did apologise for that, but from past experience if I simplify things too much you also criticise my posts! FWIW I could have gone into a lot more detail. I am yet to find the 'Skeptic Ginger" happy place, not too simple, not too complex; just right. *Also the immediate treatment is the same. ETA As you reference says
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16th December 2020, 12:42 AM | #151 |
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*True.
The timing of the reaction is important in identifying anaphylaxis. True anaphylaxis occurs within minutes of exposure usually within 15 but possibly up to an hour. Anaphylactoid reactions may occur at any time (including immediately). A story I hear is someone waking up with e.g. swollen lips / tight throat hours after having a curry, this will be an anaphylactoid reaction as it is too late to be an allergic / anaphylactic reaction. All too often the emergency department doctor has told them (incorrectly) they must have been allergic to something in the curry. On the other hand an anaphylactoid reaction to giving an iv injection of morphine can occur within seconds. |
16th December 2020, 01:07 AM | #152 |
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Technically correct or not, I've been hard pressed to find any research article that says technically anaphylactoid is not an allergic reaction.
Bottom line, who cares? Not true. I have criticized a couple of your posts when you had things wrong like saying TB was droplet spread when it isn't. I didn't finish one of our other discussions because one of my two dogs was dying, and when he died there was no point in bumping the thread. We come from different circles. And that goes with my point, who cares about the molecular chain of events that cause the two different reactions? Making some complicated point that it wasn't an allergic reaction just confuses people. Describing the molecular mechanisms wasn't the issue. Insisting one was not really and allergic reaction was. In this specific case, the report I read said they had symptoms the next day. I'll post it when I find it. If/when these vaccine recipients get their second dose, they would be sensitized and could have an anaphylactic reaction. And the caution is legit about observing people after they receive the vaccine. |
16th December 2020, 02:12 AM | #153 |
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I still don't understand why people are inventing different conspiracy theories. I understand that they have always been and will be, but this is senseless, because if they want to hide something from us, then we will never know about it))
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16th December 2020, 02:05 PM | #154 |
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16th December 2020, 02:19 PM | #155 |
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16th December 2020, 02:49 PM | #156 |
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16th December 2020, 02:54 PM | #157 |
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16th December 2020, 02:59 PM | #158 |
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Hey SG could you just correct the CDC about this? On their web site they say,
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16th December 2020, 03:03 PM | #159 |
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16th December 2020, 03:12 PM | #160 |
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