2020 Congressional Election

[smartcooky]

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

The Democrats have the majority, same rules apply.

OK, so the Senate is effectively 51-50, so all the committees follow suit?

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by Firestone

(bolding mine)

Raising the question of when Ossoff will be seated.
As long as he isn't, McConnell remains "majority" leader.

(Data point: Al Franken, in 2009, was seated on July 7th, 9 months after the election.)

Does it matter if McConnell gets an extra week?

But with Warnock seated and Perdue challenging the election, I believe that makes it 49/49 because Perdue's term expired.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Originally Posted by smartcooky

OK, so the Senate is effectively 51-50, so all the committees follow suit?

Yes.

[Segnosaur]

Originally Posted by Firestone

(bolding mine)

Raising the question of when Ossoff will be seated.
As long as he isn't, McConnell remains "majority" leader.

(Data point: Al Franken, in 2009, was seated on July 7th, 9 months after the election.)

According to Wikipedia, the 2009 Al Franken election 1) had a much narrower margin of less than 1000 votes, 2) actually had active legal cases going on regarding some disputed ballots that seemed to have SOME validity, and 3) the governor of Minnesota hadn't signed off on the certification.

I am not sure if the same issues will apply here... The margin of victory in the Ossoff election is much larger, and given the Republican's track record of court challenges, I assume any lawsuit they bring will probably be dismissed fairly quickly. And I doubt Moscow Mitch would really have much legal ground to block him if/when he gets certified.

[Firestone]

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

Does it matter if McConnell gets an extra week?

Extra week, indeed doesn't matter.
If Perdue manages to drag it out for months, as in Minnesota in 2009, yes, it does matter.
Let's hope it doesn't happen.

Originally Posted by Skeptic Ginger

But with Warnock seated and Perdue challenging the election, I believe that makes it 49/49 because Perdue's term expired.

With Warnock seated and Perdue challenging the election, it's 50 R - 49 D.

(Just playing my part in the "Dems in disarray" meme here.
Let's hope it's an academic discussion, and that Ossoff is seated soon enough.)

[Firestone]

Originally Posted by Segnosaur

According to Wikipedia, the 2009 Al Franken election 1) had a much narrower margin of less than 1000 votes, 2) actually had active legal cases going on regarding some disputed ballots that seemed to have SOME validity, and 3) the governor of Minnesota hadn't signed off on the certification.

I am not sure if the same issues will apply here... The margin of victory in the Ossoff election is much larger, and given the Republican's track record of court challenges, I assume any lawsuit they bring will probably be dismissed fairly quickly. And I doubt Moscow Mitch would really have much legal ground to block him if/when he gets certified.

Let's hope.

An added element is that it's doubtful the Georgia Governor and Secretary of State will do much to help Perdue, after he throw them under the bus over the election "fraud" in Georgia.

[timhau]

Originally Posted by Segnosaur

According to Wikipedia, the 2009 Al Franken election 1) had a much narrower margin of less than 1000 votes

312, out of nearly 3 million votes cast. You had to go to the second decimal of percentage points to get a difference. Ossoff's margin is now over 12,000 votes and likely to grow.

[DevilsAdvocate]

Originally Posted by Firestone

Extra week, indeed doesn't matter.
If Perdue manages to drag it out for months, as in Minnesota in 2009, yes, it does matter.
Let's hope it doesn't happen.

Perdue could be playing a dangerous game. He isn't going to win in the end. It would just postpone Democrats getting the majority. If McConnell and Republicans use that delay to hinder Biden, once Ossoff does get seated it is much more likely that Democrats will decide that it is payback time.

With Democrats in control of the House, Senate, and Presidency they can do a lot against Republicans. The only limitations are their will and how the public will respond. If they get pushed too far, Democrats will push back.

Democrats have a lot of weapons they could use. Expand the Supreme Court. Give statehood to to Puerto Rico and Washington DC. Pass laws controlling gerrymandering for Congressional districts based on the 2020 census. Amnesty for millions of illegal immigrants with a path to citizenship.

[Firestone]

Originally Posted by DevilsAdvocate

Democrats have a lot of weapons they could use. Expand the Supreme Court. Give statehood to to Puerto Rico and Washington DC. Pass laws controlling gerrymandering for Congressional districts based on the 2020 census. Amnesty for millions of illegal immigrants with a path to citizenship.

Why not all of that?

Just kidding.

They can do a lot, but they need Manchin, Sinema, ea on board.
And deal with that stupid filibuster.

Still, here you are, within a few weeks of a Democratic trifecta in DC. Let's savour the moment.

[Stacyhs]

Ossoff now leads by over 16,000.

[angrysoba]

If Ossoff wins will this make him the first Millennial* in the Senate?

*

Yes, I get it. Who cares about generations? Generations aren't real.
etc...

[timhau]

Originally Posted by Stacyhs

Ossoff now leads by over 16,000.

It may not even go to an automatic recount. If the trigger is a winning margin of <0.5 %, that translates to roughly 22,500 votes.

BTW, in November Perdue was only 13,471 votes short of winning the race outright.

[Firestone]

The all-knowing NYT Needle still predicts a 1.1% win for Ossoff.

[smartcooky]

Originally Posted by angrysoba

If Ossoff wins will this make him the first Millennial* in the Senate?

*

Yes, I get it. Who cares about generations? Generations aren't real.
etc...

Bonus: And he will have kicked a crook out of the Senate!

[Aidoneus]

Originally Posted by DevilsAdvocate

Senate ties are broke by the President of the Senate, which is the Vice President, which will be Kamala Harris. So Democrats would be the majority.

Is that definitely the case? As I understand it, the makeup of the Senate is now 50R, 48D and 2 Independent.

Practically, it's a 50-50 split, as the independents normally vote D, but how does that impact the Majority Leader? Republicans are still the largest party.

[Venom]

Originally Posted by angrysoba

If Ossoff wins will this make him the first Millennial* in the Senate?

*

Yes, I get it. Who cares about generations? Generations aren't real.
etc...

Josh Hawley is the first Millenial in the Senate at 41, the older end of Millenial. The big brothers who taught us how to play Nintendo 64 Millenial-Gen X group of guys.

[DevilsAdvocate]

Originally Posted by Firestone

Why not all of that?

Just kidding.

They can do a lot, but they need Manchin, Sinema, ea on board.

That is my point. Democrats can't do those really radical things because many Democrats won't go along with it and doing those things basically requires every Democrat to be on board.

The more Republicans ignore even any semblance of honor or respect or duty, the more those fence-sitting Democrats will be willing to go against their principles and just do what it takes to go against the Republicans. If Republicans are going to consistently do it when they have even a slight margin of power, then that should be balanced by the same actions when the power is reversed.

Republicans have pushed it very far to the limits in denying Obama federal judge appointments, and using procedural measures to gut the Affordable Care Act while spending years yammering to repeal and replace when they didn't actually have a replacement, and denying a Supreme Court seat and giving one to Trump under the same circumstances, and so on and son on.

Trump has done everything he can on elections with trying to work with Russians and now dozens and dozens of lawsuits and cajoling state official to try to overturn the election he lost.

There is a point where those Democrats on the fence decide...forget it. We've had enough. They have done too much. Time for payback to balance things out. Just push things trough.

Perdue fighting this election may be the straw on that camel's back.

[Firestone]

Originally Posted by DevilsAdvocate

That is my point. Democrats can't do those really radical things because many Democrats won't go along with it and doing those things basically requires every Democrat to be on board.

The more Republicans ignore even any semblance of honor or respect or duty, the more those fence-sitting Democrats will be willing to go against their principles and just do what it takes to go against the Republicans. If Republicans are going to consistently do it when they have even a slight margin of power, then that should be balanced by the same actions when the power is reversed.

Republicans have pushed it very far to the limits in denying Obama federal judge appointments, and using procedural measures to gut the Affordable Care Act while spending years yammering to repeal and replace when they didn't actually have a replacement, and denying a Supreme Court seat and giving one to Trump under the same circumstances, and so on and son on.

Trump has done everything he can on elections with trying to work with Russians and now dozens and dozens of lawsuits and cajoling state official to try to overturn the election he lost.

There is a point where those Democrats on the fence decide...forget it. We've had enough. They have done too much. Time for payback to balance things out. Just push things trough.

Perdue fighting this election may be the straw on that camel's back.

I see your point. Interesting times for sure.

[a_unique_person]

Originally Posted by dudalb

And most of the uncounted votes are in heavily Blue areas.

Mitch Must be getting really, really, nervous.

Mitch has been nervous for two months now.

[timhau]

Originally Posted by Aidoneus

Is that definitely the case? As I understand it, the makeup of the Senate is now 50R, 48D and 2 Independent.

Practically, it's a 50-50 split, as the independents normally vote D, but how does that impact the Majority Leader? Republicans are still the largest party.

Both independents caucus with the Democrats. Hell, one of them even tried to get their presidential nomination.

[Puppycow]

Back in November I didn't anticipate this.

Historically Democrats have done poorly in runoff elections like this.

I don't know how much is the Trump effect and how much is that Georgia really is purple now. Everyone seems to be crediting Stacy Abrams.

I seem to recall a similar transformation in Colorado from a state that typically leaned Republican to a purple state and now it may even be a blue state. Maybe Arizona in the future too?

On the other hand, I think some other states have gotten redder than they used to be too, like Indiana, Missouri, West Virginia, Ohio, Arkansas (where Bill Clinton came from, but is now very red).

[Captain_Swoop]

Trump Retweeted

Tomi Lahren
@TomiLahren
I wonder when the water main is gonna burst in Georgia....

Democrats scrounging up votes from mystical places again....

The steal is in the making in Georgia. Wait for it.


Kayleigh McEnany
@kayleighmcenany
Why are they stopping the vote count in Democrat Chatham county, Georgia?
This sounds familiar!

[Captain_Swoop]

Trump tweets

Just happened to have found another 4000 ballots from Fulton County. Here we go!

Looks like they are setting up a big “voter dump” against the Republican candidates. Waiting to see how many votes they need

[Mojo]

Hang on, are they complaining about counts being stopped and the Democrats finding more votes?

[Puppycow]

Thankfully by this time tomorrow the election will be officially certified and our long national nightmare will be all but over.

Unfortunately, I worry about what Trump's refusal to concede might lead some of his most radical followers to do. I think there will be blood. People who truly believe that the election was stolen, I don't what they might attempt to do in their desperation. That's my worry going forward. Trump may leave office but he can still cause trouble. Will angry mobs of armed Trump supporters who think the election was stolen descend on Washington?

[turingtest]

I like what this guy had to say back in 2016- (Twitter)

Quote:

If we nominate Trump, we will get destroyed.......and we will deserve it.
— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) May 3, 2016

Though I do think "destroyed" is a little strong. I'm hoping the GOP will at least take from this loss the lesson that they don't need to fear Trump, and that sucking up to him isn't any guarantee that it will pay the dividends they hope for. Now if they can just get over this idea that the only way they can lose an election is, by definition, for the other side to have stolen it, they can still have a future as a viable party in a republic run on the principle of democracy.

(Though I could never vote for them, since I just don't agree with their basic principles, I also could never be comfortable with the idea of a one-party state, even when the one party would be the one I do mostly agree with)

[Mader Levap]

Originally Posted by Segnosaur

So there is hope for American democracy after all.

Nah. It is just setback. Unless democrats manage to introduce sweeping reforms, and I doubt they will manage to do it for various reasons.

At least **** hitting the fan is delayed. But unfortunately, I still think USA rot is irreversible.

Prove me wrong. I wish with all my heart I am wrong. But I just can't see way out of that ride downhill into rightwing authoritarian state without copious amount of violence down the road.

[Mader Levap]

Originally Posted by turingtest

(Though I could never vote for them, since I just don't agree with their basic principles, I also could never be comfortable with the idea of a one-party state, even when the one party would be the one I do mostly agree with)

If republicans magically vanished, there will be two parties (and no more, unfortunately - that assumes rules stay same). One femtosecond after that magical vanishing of modern authoritartian degenerates, Sanders will split and create his own party - actually leftist one.

USA would be on square one, but I predict in this case, without any changes in political rules, rot would set in again. And that rot would proceeded way faster - not centuries, but decades.

[carlosy]

Originally Posted by Mader Levap

At least **** hitting the fan is delayed. But unfortunately, I still think USA rot is irreversible.

Delayed? The **** hit the fan 4 years ago. The USA and the world is covered in ****. There is **** all over the place.

Climate change beyond 3° is inevitable. That alone is enough **** for everyone. But there is more: 350.000 dead because of the ****** response by Trump about the virus. Still not enough ****** ?

Dems winning is just for feel good. But they will inherit a pile of shards and ****.

[Mader Levap]

Originally Posted by carlosy

Delayed?

Yes. By **** hitting the fan I mean fall of american empire. When all is said and done (and murdered a lot), USA may still exist, but it will be very, very different.

[angrysoba]

Originally Posted by carlosy

Delayed? The **** hit the fan 4 years ago. The USA and the world is covered in ****. There is **** all over the place.

Climate change beyond 3° is inevitable. That alone is enough **** for everyone. But there is more: 350.000 dead because of the ****** response by Trump about the virus. Still not enough ****** ?

Dems winning is just for feel good. But they will inherit a pile of shards and ****.

Well, as I've said before, no matter how bad things are, they can always get worse.

This is at least switching off the **** pipe so that it doesn't continue to shoot out at the fan and spin around in the blades of the fan...

I'm not quite sure how to make the metaphor work, but... this is better than a Trump presidency and GOP Senate.

[The Don]

I wonder how long the legal challenges to the Georgia results will last.

[slyjoe]

Originally Posted by The Don

I wonder how long the legal challenges to the Georgia results will last.

I think to some extent the public is lawsuited out. The BS lawsuits to come are more of what has already been heard. The republicans are not going to have a new argument. I would hope the BS lawsuits would be terminated quickly, and with prejudice.

[Captain_Swoop]

Trump Tweets

They just happened to find 50,000 ballots late last night. The USA is embarrassed by fools. Our Election Process is worse than that of third world countries!

[angrysoba]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

Trump Tweets

They just happened to find 50,000 ballots late last night. The USA is embarrassed by fools. Our Election Process is worse than that of third world countries!

Is this his pitch for why he would be the ideal leader?

[turingtest]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

Trump Tweets

They just happened to find 50,000 ballots late last night. The USA is embarrassed by fools. Our Election Process is worse than that of third world countries!

This from a guy who specifically asked someone to just find 11,780 votes for him two months after an election he lost...

[alfaniner]

Originally Posted by Puppycow

Thankfully by this time tomorrow the election will be officially certified and our long national nightmare will be all but over.

Unfortunately, I worry about what Trump's refusal to concede might lead some of his most radical followers to do. I think there will be blood. People who truly believe that the election was stolen, I don't what they might attempt to do in their desperation. That's my worry going forward. Trump may leave office but he can still cause trouble. Will angry mobs of armed Trump supporters who think the election was stolen descend on Washington?

They're there right now, and reports say they are riling themselves up. Today's gonna be bad.

[slyjoe]

Originally Posted by smartcooky

OK, so the Senate is effectively 51-50, so all the committees follow suit?

That's correct, and poor lil Lindsay Graham will no longer be chairman of the judiciary committee. Which to me is icing on the cake.

[Firestone]

Originally Posted by slyjoe

That's correct, and poor lil Lindsay Graham will no longer be chairman of the judiciary committee. Which to me is icing on the cake.

That too.

I'm ashamed to say that I feel so much schadenfreude today that I can't concentrate on my work.

[JoeMorgue]

Originally Posted by Mader Levap

Nah. It is just setback. Unless democrats manage to introduce sweeping reforms, and I doubt they will manage to do it for various reasons.

At least **** hitting the fan is delayed. But unfortunately, I still think USA rot is irreversible.

Prove me wrong. I wish with all my heart I am wrong. But I just can't see way out of that ride downhill into rightwing authoritarian state without copious amount of violence down the road.

"If (as it appears) the Democrats win the Senate tonight, ie depose Mitch McConnell as majority leader and clear the way for Democratic appointees, judges, etc -- I'm blocking every mother[bleeper] who immediately soars in and claims 'This ACTUALLY DOESN'T MATTER BECAUSE...'

That's like rushing into the wreckage of a plane crash and telling every survivor, 'Well you'll still die of cancer or something someday!' Can you cut that nasty, spiteful, smirking, contrarian bull[crap] for a couple of days? People are allowed to feel something other than misery.

If you find yourself being relentlessly negative because you think that doing anything else is compromising, you should know that you're driving people away. 'Come join me, we can all be miserable 24/7!' is not a compelling sales pitch. It's fine to celebrate the wins."

- Jason "David Wong" Pargin, via Twitter 1/6/2021