Where are we heading as a nation?

shemp · 11th January 2021, 12:25 PM

I feel like we're at a major turning point in history. We could be on the verge of a "sea change" and it might not be good for this nation and a lot of its people.

This poll contains several possible outcomes, but if you don't agree that any will happen please choose the Planet X option and speak your mind.

For the perpetually undecided, multiple choice is enabled.

CJW · 11th January 2021, 12:42 PM

The question in my mind was "Were the events of Jan 6 a Waterloo or Fort Sumpter moment". Think it's just the start - I can only guess how many McVeighs were in Washington that day, now sitting at home and ready to carry out the fight.

Tero · 11th January 2021, 12:47 PM

"The insurrectionists will eventually be taken down but many lives will be lost."

Something like that, but no more that 10 lives the next round.

Horatius · 11th January 2021, 12:51 PM

I'm not sure what the functional difference is between "There will be a long period of terrorism but not a real Civil War" and "The insurrectionists will eventually be taken down but many lives will be lost". The terrorism will be the civil war, and those behind it will almost certainly be taken down, but a lot of lives will be lost in the process.

I suppose you could say a "civil war" requires the backing of actual government officials on both sides, so that a group of yahoos blowing **** up in several states wouldn't be considered a "Civil War" in principle, but I'm not sure that's actually a requirement of a civil war. And even in this case, the yahoos do have at least the tacit support of Trump and quite a few members of Congress.

JoeMorgue · 11th January 2021, 12:51 PM

I'm going to be the optimistic pollyanna of the bunch, mainly in that most of people who are going to reply to this thread are going to be people who have a vested emotional interested in things not getting better.

I do think we'll be okay, long term. I still see this as a dying creature, and I mean both Trump and the entire movement around him, trying to do as much damage as possible on the way out.

There are parts that I am most certainly scared of long term, unfixable consequences resulting from. I make no apologies and have not hidden the fact that the fall out our intellectual standards it took to get us to our current post-fact world scare the living hell out of me and if we can't fix that I don't say a way back, but I still question how long term sustainable full scale reality denial as a core central pillar of movement is.

But I don't think the anger, the violence, the hate... I don't they are permanent.

TragicMonkey · 11th January 2021, 12:52 PM

There wasn't a "sex toilet" option in the poll. I think the US is headed towards becoming a sex toilet.

Crossbow · 11th January 2021, 12:53 PM

I am afraid that my answer is:

"The insurrectionists will eventually be taken down but many lives will be lost."

Unfortunately, we go through this very sad, and yet completely foreseeable, exercise every two or three generations.

BobTheCoward · 11th January 2021, 12:53 PM

Let's not forget how much right wing violence and terrorism there was between 1880 and 1970.

RecoveringYuppy · 11th January 2021, 02:18 PM

Where's the option for option for "We'll continue to chase the Pacific Plate for the foreseeable future of the Cenezoic Era"?

dudalb · 11th January 2021, 02:25 PM

Originally Posted by Horatius

I'm not sure what the functional difference is between "There will be a long period of terrorism but not a real Civil War" and "The insurrectionists will eventually be taken down but many lives will be lost". The terrorism will be the civil war, and those behind it will almost certainly be taken down, but a lot of lives will be lost in the process.

I suppose you could say a "civil war" requires the backing of actual government officials on both sides, so that a group of yahoos blowing **** up in several states wouldn't be considered a "Civil War" in principle, but I'm not sure that's actually a requirement of a civil war. And even in this case, the yahoos do have at least the tacit support of Trump and quite a few members of Congress.

A Civil War can be primarly a Guerilla war. I give you the Irish Civil War of 1921-23 as an example.
I think what may happen in the US will be on the level of Ulster in the most recent "Troubles".

dudalb · 11th January 2021, 02:27 PM

Originally Posted by Crossbow

I am afraid that my answer is:

"The insurrectionists will eventually be taken down but many lives will be lost."

Unfortunately, we go through this very sad, and yet completely foreseeable, exercise every two or three generations.

It has been 160 years since the last time we had a really serious insurrection and that is more then three generations.

Crossbow · 11th January 2021, 02:53 PM

Originally Posted by dudalb

It has been 160 years since the last time we had a really serious insurrection and that is more then three generations.

You are quite correct.

But there have been a number of smaller insurrections/rebellions/domestic terrorism/etc.

Oystein · 11th January 2021, 02:56 PM

The options are of course vague. Take "There will be a long period of terrorism but not a real Civil War.":
What constitutes "period of terrorism"? There has been some terrorism always, everywhere, at some level. So what thresholds can be defined to delineate such a period? And what is "long", anyway?

I am convinced that there will be some newly fomented terrorist activity out of the extremist and racist GOP and QAnon crowds, with tacit and open support from politicians and significant swaths of Trump's voter base. Perhaps some backlash terrorism from the other sides, too. But on what level, and how sustained I cannot tell.

Safe-Keeper · 11th January 2021, 03:07 PM

As others have said, it depends on whether this is the beginning or the end.

Certainly Trump and the events of 2016-2020, and now 2021, have mobilised the forces of good. That's something.

acbytesla · 11th January 2021, 03:11 PM

Originally Posted by Oystein

The options are of course vague. Take "There will be a long period of terrorism but not a real Civil War.":
What constitutes "period of terrorism"? There has been some terrorism always, everywhere, at some level. So what thresholds can be defined to delineate such a period? And what is "long", anyway?

I am convinced that there will be some newly fomented terrorist activity out of the extremist and racist GOP and QAnon crowds, with tacit and open support from politicians and significant swaths of Trump's voter base. Perhaps some backlash terrorism from the other sides, too. But on what level, and how sustained I cannot tell.

Unfortunately, I think this is probably true.

crescent · 11th January 2021, 03:24 PM

Originally Posted by Horatius

I'm not sure what the functional difference is between "There will be a long period of terrorism but not a real Civil War" and "The insurrectionists will eventually be taken down but many lives will be lost". The terrorism will be the civil war, and those behind it will almost certainly be taken down, but a lot of lives will be lost in the process.

I suppose you could say a "civil war" requires the backing of actual government officials on both sides, so that a group of yahoos blowing **** up in several states wouldn't be considered a "Civil War" in principle, but I'm not sure that's actually a requirement of a civil war. And even in this case, the yahoos do have at least the tacit support of Trump and quite a few members of Congress.

Originally Posted by dudalb

A Civil War can be primarly a Guerilla war. I give you the Irish Civil War of 1921-23 as an example.
I think what may happen in the US will be on the level of Ulster in the most recent "Troubles".

Add the Nepali civil war to that. No government people at all on the rebel side, some desertion from the national army but no defection to the other side. The war ended with the King deposed and the Maoist rebel leader as Prime Minister.

The idea that a civil war can't happen unless states secede or military people revolt is pretty U.S.-centric.

My guess is that we'll see something like a cross between the Troubles and the end of the more extreme elements of the "Peace movement" in the U.S. in the early 1970's - the era of the Weather Underground and the Symbionese Liberation Army. Except this time it will come more from the right. Scattered violence, sometimes very bad, sometimes with a few disgruntled government people involved. More Bundy family type occupations of government facilities in rural areas. The Sagebrush Rebellion 2.0.

These sorts of movements often get more dangerous at the end, as the moderates flee and all that is left are the most extreme ideologues. The end of the Trump administration could trigger such an effect.

But no open warfare, no states seceding, no Generals leading their troops against the elected government, nothing like that. If nothing else, our population is just too old - civil war is for the young.

And I don't discount the possibility of the far-left adding to the pot. Confrontational people are going to use whatever excuse they have to prolong the tit-for-tat feud behavior, each side using the other side's more recent provocation as justification for bad behavior.

I don't really know that the end result will be. Mass acceptance of internet-driven conspiracy theories seems to be here to stay. More and more people seem to accept strongly confrontational tactics as a means to solve problems (despite it rarely working). Our society is adapting to internet-based communication is ways that don't seem to have been anticipated.

Mader Levap · 11th January 2021, 03:26 PM

Endgame is, of course, right-wing authoritarian state with Republicans as one true party.

Norman Alexander · 11th January 2021, 03:28 PM

The revolution will not be televised...

So Trump won't watch it.

catsmate · 11th January 2021, 04:34 PM

Where is the "It's not my country" option?

Manopolus · 11th January 2021, 04:36 PM

Originally Posted by TragicMonkey

There wasn't a "sex toilet" option in the poll. I think the US is headed towards becoming a sex toilet.

Really?! With such a large population of incels? How's that work?

angrysoba · 11th January 2021, 05:17 PM

Originally Posted by TragicMonkey

There wasn't a "sex toilet" option in the poll. I think the US is headed towards becoming a sex toilet.

Are you kidding? It's already there!

Modified · 11th January 2021, 05:27 PM

Originally Posted by TragicMonkey

There wasn't a "sex toilet" option in the poll. I think the US is headed towards becoming a sex toilet.

I'm unfamiliar with the young peoples' lingo these days. Is "sex toilet" a good thing or a bad thing?

newyorkguy · 11th January 2021, 05:37 PM

I think the future looks increasingly grim. The current crisis will linger. Consider close to 75 million Americans voted for four more years of donald trump. Demographics will play an important role in decreasing the tension. My pessimistic hunch is, by the time we really regroup as a nation -- in another generation or two -- it will be when the climate change crisis begins to get out of control. We begin to have cycles of massive storms, causing severe damage and economic loss. Extreme summer heat waves where temperatures reach unsurvivable levels for days at a time. I read an interview with a very accomplished scientist who said he's given up. He thinks the window of opportunity to rollback the danger has closed. That humankind has been revealed as not having the political will to do what we had to do.

He said that we will not be the first species to become extinct. That the world will go on without missing us.

It's very gloomy but I have a hunch he's probably right. This movie has a very unhappy ending. Everyone dies in the final scene.

shemp · 11th January 2021, 05:44 PM

Originally Posted by newyorkguy

I think the future looks increasingly grim. The current crisis will linger. Consider close to 75 million Americans voted for four more years of donald trump. Demographics will play an important role in decreasing the tension. My pessimistic hunch is, by the time we really regroup as a nation -- in another generation or two -- it will be when the climate change crisis begins to get out of control. We begin to have cycles of massive storms, causing severe damage and economic loss. Extreme summer heat waves where temperatures reach unsurvivable levels for days at a time. I read an interview with a very accomplished scientist who said he's given up. He thinks the window of opportunity to rollback the danger has closed. That humankind has been revealed as not having the political will to do we had we had to do.

He said that we will not be the first species to become extinct. That the world will go on without missing us.

It's very gloomy but I have a hunch he's probably right. This movie has a very unhappy ending. Everyone dies in the final scene.

And we'll take most of the innocent species with us. Year 2100 tops. I won't be there to see the ending, but many of today's children will. I won't say it was a nice run while it lasted.

HHellpop · 11th January 2021, 05:57 PM

Originally Posted by newyorkguy

I think the future looks increasingly grim. The current crisis will linger. Consider close to 75 million Americans voted for four more years of donald trump. Demographics will play an important role in decreasing the tension. My pessimistic hunch is, by the time we really regroup as a nation -- in another generation or two -- it will be when the climate change crisis begins to get out of control. We begin to have cycles of massive storms, causing severe damage and economic loss. Extreme summer heat waves where temperatures reach unsurvivable levels for days at a time. I read an interview with a very accomplished scientist who said he's given up. He thinks the window of opportunity to rollback the danger has closed. That humankind has been revealed as not having the political will to do we had we had to do.

He said that we will not be the first species to become extinct. That the world will go on without missing us.

It's very gloomy but I have a hunch he's probably right. This movie has a very unhappy ending. Everyone dies in the final scene.

It does not please me in the slightest to point out that this has already begun.

A Running List of Record-Breaking Natural Disasters in 2020

Your accomplished scientist interviewee is correct. Here in southern Louisiana, it's not a matter of if New Orleans will become a coastal city, it's a matter of when. The tipping point was passed about 20 years ago.

Trebuchet · 11th January 2021, 06:05 PM

Originally Posted by HHellpop

It does not please me in the slightest to point out that this has already begun.

A Running List of Record-Breaking Natural Disasters in 2020

Your accomplished scientist interviewee is correct. Here in southern Louisiana, it's not a matter of if New Orleans will become a coastal city, it's a matter of when. The tipping point was passed about 20 years ago.

"Coastal"? Did you mean "submerged"?

As to the poll, it's multiple choice. I voted options 3 and 4 which are not mutually exclusive. But I expect the country to be in deep doodoo for the rest of my lifetime.

johnny karate · 11th January 2021, 06:08 PM

Originally Posted by Modified

I'm unfamiliar with the young peoples' lingo these days. Is "sex toilet" a good thing or a bad thing?

Yes.

HHellpop · 11th January 2021, 06:21 PM

Originally Posted by Trebuchet

"Coastal"? Did you mean "submerged"?

As to the poll, it's multiple choice. I voted options 3 and 4 which are not mutually exclusive. But I expect the country to be in deep doodoo for the rest of my lifetime.

Actually, you're right. I guess I wound up putting it in hopeful terms of my lifetime. But a recent Tulane study puts the coast somewhere close to Covington, north of Lake Ponchartrain, within 100 years, maybe longer. That's assuming we actually start electing people who care about it instead of the ones we have been, and stave it off a little longer. In other words, more likely 50 years.

And I voted the same.

The Atheist · 11th January 2021, 06:32 PM

The vernacular down here is "down the gurgler" (drain)

Irretrievably split down the right - you couldn't say it's split down the middle, centrism in America died last century - debt riding at $27T and counting, huge problems ahead from rising sea levels, crumbling infrastructure...

I don't see a good way out - call Steven Pinker, I'm sure he'll be able to put positive spin on it.

welshdean · 11th January 2021, 06:46 PM

Meh, you'll all be fine.

90% of the Qster will be flat earth earthers by the beginning of Feb.

The Great Zaganza · 12th January 2021, 05:42 AM

Nice try!

but in these cases it's always "All of the Above"

Horatius · 12th January 2021, 06:21 AM

Originally Posted by Oystein

The options are of course vague. Take "There will be a long period of terrorism but not a real Civil War.":
What constitutes "period of terrorism"? There has been some terrorism always, everywhere, at some level. So what thresholds can be defined to delineate such a period? And what is "long", anyway?

I'd define it as a level of terrorism that actually starts to affect a lot of people's day to day lives.

After 9/11, there was some increase in our awareness of the possibility of terrorism, the whole "See something say something" campaign, but if you weren't getting on a plane or trying to enter a major governmental facility, it didn't actually affect you that much. Going to the store, going to church, going to the pub, going to a football game, were all pretty much the same. No one stopped to think, "Will there be a bomb there? Will there be a mass shooting there?"

That's what's likely going to change. You'll have to start thinking about the odds of being attacked almost anywhere. "The MAGAs have been quiet for a month, they probably won't attack the supermarket this week....That one idiot got arrested for shouting about hanging President Biden, so maybe they'll be up in arms this weekend, better skip church..."

The Great Zaganza · 12th January 2021, 06:27 AM

it is clear terrorism when Representatives make political decisions because they are afraid of physical violence.

Hlafordlaes · 12th January 2021, 07:05 AM

Originally Posted by newyorkguy

I think the future looks increasingly grim. The current crisis will linger. Consider close to 75 million Americans voted for four more years of donald trump. Demographics will play an important role in decreasing the tension. My pessimistic hunch is, by the time we really regroup as a nation -- in another generation or two -- it will be when the climate change crisis begins to get out of control. We begin to have cycles of massive storms, causing severe damage and economic loss. Extreme summer heat waves where temperatures reach unsurvivable levels for days at a time. I read an interview with a very accomplished scientist who said he's given up. He thinks the window of opportunity to rollback the danger has closed. That humankind has been revealed as not having the political will to do what we had to do.

He said that we will not be the first species to become extinct. That the world will go on without missing us.

It's very gloomy but I have a hunch he's probably right. This movie has a very unhappy ending. Everyone dies in the final scene.

Originally Posted by HHellpop

It does not please me in the slightest to point out that this has already begun.

A Running List of Record-Breaking Natural Disasters in 2020

Your accomplished scientist interviewee is correct. Here in southern Louisiana, it's not a matter of if New Orleans will become a coastal city, it's a matter of when. The tipping point was passed about 20 years ago.

I do believe the local answer to the Fermi paradox is now unambiguously clear. But given this propensity to short-term thinking and woo, I expect nuclear war, which will happen when:

- pressures on resources, especially food and water, start to become catastrophic sometime in the next 30-50 years
- the dollar is dumped as reserve currency and US borrowing costs skyrocket
- the US is massively boycotted for the first time by a large number of China-aligned nations, and has overseas monies seized as payment for war crimes

... and Americans find that the only solution that is still available is the one that has always been relied on in lieu of sound policy and the hard work of understanding the world on its terms: war.

Jack by the hedge · 12th January 2021, 07:07 AM

Safe-Keeper · 12th January 2021, 07:21 AM

Originally Posted by catsmate

Where is the "It's not my country" option?

Today we are all Americans.

JoeMorgue · 12th January 2021, 07:29 AM

Originally Posted by catsmate

Where is the "It's not my country" option?

We just assume all of them are in there with the "LOL American is ruined, I always said it was ruined, admit I was right all along about how ruined and unsavable America is. I was right all along. In fact I said America was ruined and unsavable before anyone else."

lomiller · 12th January 2021, 07:35 AM

This iteration will disappear soon, but the forces in the background enabling them and egging them on will continue unabated. In 5-10 years the their supporters is congress will be the "sane Republicans" being pushed aside by a new even more extreme version of the political right. It's been the pattern for decades now and I see no reason why it would change now.

Thermal · 12th January 2021, 09:33 AM

I think a better question would be "what are you doing about the direction your country is headed?" For the overwhelming majority, little to nothing. Composing witty tweets and posts doesn't amount to much.

I'd say we need to get real, collectively and individually. The Capitol storming is a perfect example. Thousands of people from all over the country travelled there, then by and large had no idea what to do when they got there. Took selfies and souvenirs and wandered home. They were so wound up in their LARPing fantasy that, like a dog chasing a car, had no idea what to do when they caught it. They just quietly went home.

Of course, there were some violent ones sprinkled in. There always are, and always will be. But in terms of where the country is headed, it's headed for deeper depths of living in a virtual delusion, fed by an endless cel phone screenshot of drama. Believing there is a coup when there is not. Believing there is a revolution when there is not. Just endless online game playing.

The country is headed where the people are headed, which is deeper into a virtual simulation, while not knowing their next-door neighbors name. Surrounding themselves with more like-minded people (or screen names) till the country fits their views. Theres not much objectively real online; our journalism is obscenely biased. Meanwhile, we are turned against each other with more and more rhetoric, and the wealthy (who care not a whit for all this) get a profitable laugh at our expense. Same as it ever was.

dann · 12th January 2021, 09:46 AM

Too bad the Trump cult is not a suicide cult, but in spite of this, I think there will be more suicides in the wake of the implosion of Qanon than assassinations. Having their guru denounce them is probably worse for their cognitive dissonance than if he had just died. Fortunately, most of them won't have the skill set or the patience of the Nashville suicide bomber.

Some will act out, but the idea of attacking the U.S. Capitol again combined with armed attacks at all the 50 state capitols will probably spread the protests so thin that it will become apparent how (relatively) few the militant right-wing extremists are.

A few Proud Boogaloo Bois may choose to focus on the capitols of two or three states, but the FBI will probably know about it and round them up before actual attacks happen.

The insurrectionists are going to win and Trump will be President for Life.	1	1.11%
Several states will attempt to secede and we'll be in another Civil War.	4	4.44%
There will be a long period of terrorism but not a real Civil War.	39	43.33%
The insurrectionists will eventually be taken down but many lives will be lost.	36	40.00%
Cooler heads will prevail and we'll reach some level of calm.	27	30.00%
Planet X will invade and we'll all be killed!	7	7.78%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 90. You may not vote on this poll

11th January 2021, 12:25 PM	#1
shemp a flimsy character...perfidious and despised Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: People's Democratic Republic of Planet X Posts: 40,238	Where are we heading as a nation? I feel like we're at a major turning point in history. We could be on the verge of a "sea change" and it might not be good for this nation and a lot of its people. This poll contains several possible outcomes, but if you don't agree that any will happen please choose the Planet X option and speak your mind. For the perpetually undecided, multiple choice is enabled.
	__________________ If being a twat was a TV show, Trump would be the boxed set. "...just as a magnet attracts iron filings, ~~Trump~~ shemp attracts, and is attracted to, louts." - George Will "[shemp is] a most notable coward, an infinite and endless liar, an hourly promise breaker, the owner of no one good quality." - Shakespeare Last edited by shemp; 11th January 2021 at 12:30 PM.

11th January 2021, 12:42 PM	#2
CJW Muse Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 764	The question in my mind was "Were the events of Jan 6 a Waterloo or Fort Sumpter moment". Think it's just the start - I can only guess how many McVeighs were in Washington that day, now sitting at home and ready to carry out the fight.
CJW Muse Join Date: Dec 2001 Posts: 764	__________________ I am the true Lord of the Dance... not matter what those idiots at work say!

11th January 2021, 12:47 PM	#3
Tero Master Poster Join Date: Oct 2010 Location: North American prairie Posts: 2,200	"The insurrectionists will eventually be taken down but many lives will be lost." Something like that, but no more that 10 lives the next round.
	__________________ I've deleted the one blog link. You can find the humor blog by searching "the kari report blogspot." Politics blog: https://esapolitics.blogspot.com/

11th January 2021, 12:51 PM	#4
Horatius NWO Kitty Wrangler Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 29,014	I'm not sure what the functional difference is between "There will be a long period of terrorism but not a real Civil War" and "The insurrectionists will eventually be taken down but many lives will be lost". The terrorism will be the civil war, and those behind it will almost certainly be taken down, but a lot of lives will be lost in the process. I suppose you could say a "civil war" requires the backing of actual government officials on both sides, so that a group of yahoos blowing **** up in several states wouldn't be considered a "Civil War" in principle, but I'm not sure that's actually a requirement of a civil war. And even in this case, the yahoos do have at least the tacit support of Trump and quite a few members of Congress.
	__________________ Obviously, that means cats are indeed evil and that ownership or display of a feline is an overt declaration of one's affiliation with dark forces. - Cl1mh4224rd

11th January 2021, 12:51 PM	#5
JoeMorgue Self Employed Remittance Man Join Date: Nov 2009 Location: Florida Posts: 30,612	I'm going to be the optimistic pollyanna of the bunch, mainly in that most of people who are going to reply to this thread are going to be people who have a vested emotional interested in things not getting better. I do think we'll be okay, long term. I still see this as a dying creature, and I mean both Trump and the entire movement around him, trying to do as much damage as possible on the way out. There are parts that I am most certainly scared of long term, unfixable consequences resulting from. I make no apologies and have not hidden the fact that the fall out our intellectual standards it took to get us to our current post-fact world scare the living hell out of me and if we can't fix that I don't say a way back, but I still question how long term sustainable full scale reality denial as a core central pillar of movement is. But I don't think the anger, the violence, the hate... I don't they are permanent.
	__________________ Yahtzee: "You're doing that thing again where when asked a question you just discuss the philosophy of the question instead of answering the bloody question." Gabriel: "Well yeah, you see..." Yahtzee: "No. When you are asked a Yes or No question the first word out of your mouth needs to be Yes or No. Only after that have you earned the right to elaborate." Last edited by JoeMorgue; 11th January 2021 at 12:56 PM.

11th January 2021, 12:52 PM	#6
TragicMonkey Poisoned Waffles Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Monkey Posts: 59,452	There wasn't a "sex toilet" option in the poll. I think the US is headed towards becoming a sex toilet.
	__________________ You added nothing to that conversation, Barbara.

11th January 2021, 12:53 PM	#7
Crossbow Seeking Honesty and Sanity Join Date: Oct 2001 Location: Charleston, WV Posts: 13,307	I am afraid that my answer is: "The insurrectionists will eventually be taken down but many lives will be lost." Unfortunately, we go through this very sad, and yet completely foreseeable, exercise every two or three generations.
	__________________ I can barely believe that I made it through the Trump presidency. On 15 FEB 2019 'BobTheCoward' said: "I constantly assert I am a fool." A man's best friend is his dogma.

11th January 2021, 12:53 PM	#8
BobTheCoward Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 20,227	Let's not forget how much right wing violence and terrorism there was between 1880 and 1970.

11th January 2021, 02:18 PM	#9
RecoveringYuppy Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 10,709	Where's the option for option for "We'll continue to chase the Pacific Plate for the foreseeable future of the Cenezoic Era"?

11th January 2021, 02:25 PM	#10
dudalb Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Sacramento Posts: 50,315	Originally Posted by Horatius I'm not sure what the functional difference is between "There will be a long period of terrorism but not a real Civil War" and "The insurrectionists will eventually be taken down but many lives will be lost". The terrorism will be the civil war, and those behind it will almost certainly be taken down, but a lot of lives will be lost in the process. I suppose you could say a "civil war" requires the backing of actual government officials on both sides, so that a group of yahoos blowing **** up in several states wouldn't be considered a "Civil War" in principle, but I'm not sure that's actually a requirement of a civil war. And even in this case, the yahoos do have at least the tacit support of Trump and quite a few members of Congress. A Civil War can be primarly a Guerilla war. I give you the Irish Civil War of 1921-23 as an example. I think what may happen in the US will be on the level of Ulster in the most recent "Troubles".
	__________________ Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein. Last edited by dudalb; 11th January 2021 at 02:28 PM.

11th January 2021, 02:27 PM	#11
dudalb Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Sacramento Posts: 50,315	Originally Posted by Crossbow I am afraid that my answer is: "The insurrectionists will eventually be taken down but many lives will be lost." Unfortunately, we go through this very sad, and yet completely foreseeable, exercise every two or three generations. It has been 160 years since the last time we had a really serious insurrection and that is more then three generations.
	__________________ Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty. Robert Heinlein.

11th January 2021, 02:53 PM	#12
Crossbow Seeking Honesty and Sanity Join Date: Oct 2001 Location: Charleston, WV Posts: 13,307	Originally Posted by dudalb It has been 160 years since the last time we had a really serious insurrection and that is more then three generations. You are quite correct. But there have been a number of smaller insurrections/rebellions/domestic terrorism/etc.
	__________________ I can barely believe that I made it through the Trump presidency. On 15 FEB 2019 'BobTheCoward' said: "I constantly assert I am a fool." A man's best friend is his dogma.

11th January 2021, 02:56 PM	#13
Oystein Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 16,999	The options are of course vague. Take "There will be a long period of terrorism but not a real Civil War.": What constitutes "period of terrorism"? There has been some terrorism always, everywhere, at some level. So what thresholds can be defined to delineate such a period? And what is "long", anyway? I am convinced that there will be some newly fomented terrorist activity out of the extremist and racist GOP and QAnon crowds, with tacit and open support from politicians and significant swaths of Trump's voter base. Perhaps some backlash terrorism from the other sides, too. But on what level, and how sustained I cannot tell.
	__________________ Thermodynamics hates conspiracy theorists. (Foster Zygote)

11th January 2021, 03:07 PM	#14
Safe-Keeper Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Norway Posts: 10,395	As others have said, it depends on whether this is the beginning or the end. Certainly Trump and the events of 2016-2020, and now 2021, have mobilised the forces of good. That's something.
	__________________ "He's like a drunk being given a sobriety test by the police after being pulled over. Just as a drunk can't walk a straight line, Trump can't think in a straight line. He's all over the place."--Stacyhs "If you are still hung up on that whole words-have-meaning thing, then 2020 is going to be a long year for you." --Ladewig

11th January 2021, 03:11 PM	#15
acbytesla Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 28,212	Originally Posted by Oystein The options are of course vague. Take "There will be a long period of terrorism but not a real Civil War.": What constitutes "period of terrorism"? There has been some terrorism always, everywhere, at some level. So what thresholds can be defined to delineate such a period? And what is "long", anyway? I am convinced that there will be some newly fomented terrorist activity out of the extremist and racist GOP and QAnon crowds, with tacit and open support from politicians and significant swaths of Trump's voter base. Perhaps some backlash terrorism from the other sides, too. But on what level, and how sustained I cannot tell. Unfortunately, I think this is probably true.
	__________________ Just because I'm paranoid doesn't mean they're not out to get to me. .

11th January 2021, 03:24 PM	#16
crescent Illuminator Join Date: Jul 2011 Location: Colorado Posts: 3,974	Originally Posted by Horatius I'm not sure what the functional difference is between "There will be a long period of terrorism but not a real Civil War" and "The insurrectionists will eventually be taken down but many lives will be lost". The terrorism will be the civil war, and those behind it will almost certainly be taken down, but a lot of lives will be lost in the process. I suppose you could say a "civil war" requires the backing of actual government officials on both sides, so that a group of yahoos blowing ** up in several states wouldn't be considered a "Civil War" in principle, but I'm not sure that's actually a requirement of a civil war. And even in this case, the yahoos do have at least the tacit support of Trump and quite a few members of Congress. Originally Posted by dudalb** A Civil War can be primarly a Guerilla war. I give you the Irish Civil War of 1921-23 as an example. I think what may happen in the US will be on the level of Ulster in the most recent "Troubles". Add the Nepali civil war to that. No government people at all on the rebel side, some desertion from the national army but no defection to the other side. The war ended with the King deposed and the Maoist rebel leader as Prime Minister. The idea that a civil war can't happen unless states secede or military people revolt is pretty U.S.-centric. My guess is that we'll see something like a cross between the Troubles and the end of the more extreme elements of the "Peace movement" in the U.S. in the early 1970's - the era of the Weather Underground and the Symbionese Liberation Army. Except this time it will come more from the right. Scattered violence, sometimes very bad, sometimes with a few disgruntled government people involved. More Bundy family type occupations of government facilities in rural areas. The Sagebrush Rebellion 2.0. These sorts of movements often get more dangerous at the end, as the moderates flee and all that is left are the most extreme ideologues. The end of the Trump administration could trigger such an effect. But no open warfare, no states seceding, no Generals leading their troops against the elected government, nothing like that. If nothing else, our population is just too old - civil war is for the young. And I don't discount the possibility of the far-left adding to the pot. Confrontational people are going to use whatever excuse they have to prolong the tit-for-tat feud behavior, each side using the other side's more recent provocation as justification for bad behavior. I don't really know that the end result will be. Mass acceptance of internet-driven conspiracy theories seems to be here to stay. More and more people seem to accept strongly confrontational tactics as a means to solve problems (despite it rarely working). Our society is adapting to internet-based communication is ways that don't seem to have been anticipated.

11th January 2021, 03:26 PM	#17
Mader Levap Graduate Poster Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 1,576	Endgame is, of course, right-wing authoritarian state with Republicans as one true party.
	__________________ Sanity is overrated. / Voting for Republicans is morally equivalent to voting for Nazis in early 30's.

11th January 2021, 03:28 PM	#18
Norman Alexander Philosopher Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: Gundungurra Posts: 8,755	The revolution will not be televised... So Trump won't watch it.
	__________________ _{...our governments are just trying to protect us from terror. In the same way that someone banging a hornets’ nest with a stick is trying to protect us from hornets. Frankie Boyle, Guardian, July 2015}

11th January 2021, 04:34 PM	#19
catsmate No longer the 1 Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 23,830	Where is the "It's not my country" option?
	__________________ As human right is always something given, it always in reality reduces to the right which men give, "concede," to each other. If the right to existence is conceded to new-born children, then they have the right; if it is not conceded to them, as was the case among the Spartans and ancient Romans, then they do not have it. For only society can give or concede it to them; they themselves cannot take it, or give it to themselves.

11th January 2021, 04:36 PM	#20
Manopolus Metaphorical Anomaly Join Date: Jan 2010 Location: Brownbackistan Posts: 7,547	Originally Posted by TragicMonkey There wasn't a "sex toilet" option in the poll. I think the US is headed towards becoming a sex toilet. Really?! With such a large population of incels? How's that work?

11th January 2021, 05:17 PM	#21
angrysoba Philosophile Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: Osaka, Japan Posts: 29,342	Originally Posted by TragicMonkey There wasn't a "sex toilet" option in the poll. I think the US is headed towards becoming a sex toilet. Are you kidding? It's already there!
	__________________ "The thief and the murderer follow nature just as much as the philanthropist. Cosmic evolution may teach us how the good and the evil tendencies of man may have come about; but, in itself, it is incompetent to furnish any better reason why what we call good is preferable to what we call evil than we had before." "Evolution and Ethics" T.H. Huxley (1893)

11th January 2021, 05:27 PM	#22
Modified Philosopher Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 6,888	Originally Posted by TragicMonkey There wasn't a "sex toilet" option in the poll. I think the US is headed towards becoming a sex toilet. I'm unfamiliar with the young peoples' lingo these days. Is "sex toilet" a good thing or a bad thing?
Modified Philosopher Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 6,888

11th January 2021, 05:37 PM	#23
newyorkguy Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Mar 2013 Location: NY Posts: 11,489	I think the future looks increasingly grim. The current crisis will linger. Consider close to 75 million Americans voted for four more years of donald trump. Demographics will play an important role in decreasing the tension. My pessimistic hunch is, by the time we really regroup as a nation -- in another generation or two -- it will be when the climate change crisis begins to get out of control. We begin to have cycles of massive storms, causing severe damage and economic loss. Extreme summer heat waves where temperatures reach unsurvivable levels for days at a time. I read an interview with a very accomplished scientist who said he's given up. He thinks the window of opportunity to rollback the danger has closed. That humankind has been revealed as not having the political will to do what we had to do. He said that we will not be the first species to become extinct. That the world will go on without missing us. It's very gloomy but I have a hunch he's probably right. This movie has a very unhappy ending. Everyone dies in the final scene.
	Last edited by newyorkguy; 11th January 2021 at 06:11 PM.

11th January 2021, 05:44 PM	#24
shemp a flimsy character...perfidious and despised Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: People's Democratic Republic of Planet X Posts: 40,238	Originally Posted by newyorkguy I think the future looks increasingly grim. The current crisis will linger. Consider close to 75 million Americans voted for four more years of donald trump. Demographics will play an important role in decreasing the tension. My pessimistic hunch is, by the time we really regroup as a nation -- in another generation or two -- it will be when the climate change crisis begins to get out of control. We begin to have cycles of massive storms, causing severe damage and economic loss. Extreme summer heat waves where temperatures reach unsurvivable levels for days at a time. I read an interview with a very accomplished scientist who said he's given up. He thinks the window of opportunity to rollback the danger has closed. That humankind has been revealed as not having the political will to do we had we had to do. He said that we will not be the first species to become extinct. That the world will go on without missing us. It's very gloomy but I have a hunch he's probably right. This movie has a very unhappy ending. Everyone dies in the final scene. And we'll take most of the innocent species with us. Year 2100 tops. I won't be there to see the ending, but many of today's children will. I won't say it was a nice run while it lasted.
	__________________ If being a twat was a TV show, Trump would be the boxed set. "...just as a magnet attracts iron filings, ~~Trump~~ shemp attracts, and is attracted to, louts." - George Will "[shemp is] a most notable coward, an infinite and endless liar, an hourly promise breaker, the owner of no one good quality." - Shakespeare Last edited by shemp; 11th January 2021 at 05:47 PM.

11th January 2021, 05:57 PM	#25
HHellpop Reluctant Galactic Assassin Join Date: Mar 2011 Location: Ylum Posts: 361	Originally Posted by newyorkguy I think the future looks increasingly grim. The current crisis will linger. Consider close to 75 million Americans voted for four more years of donald trump. Demographics will play an important role in decreasing the tension. My pessimistic hunch is, by the time we really regroup as a nation -- in another generation or two -- it will be when the climate change crisis begins to get out of control. We begin to have cycles of massive storms, causing severe damage and economic loss. Extreme summer heat waves where temperatures reach unsurvivable levels for days at a time. I read an interview with a very accomplished scientist who said he's given up. He thinks the window of opportunity to rollback the danger has closed. That humankind has been revealed as not having the political will to do we had we had to do. He said that we will not be the first species to become extinct. That the world will go on without missing us. It's very gloomy but I have a hunch he's probably right. This movie has a very unhappy ending. Everyone dies in the final scene. It does not please me in the slightest to point out that this has already begun. A Running List of Record-Breaking Natural Disasters in 2020 Your accomplished scientist interviewee is correct. Here in southern Louisiana, it's not a matter of if New Orleans will become a coastal city, it's a matter of when. The tipping point was passed about 20 years ago.
	__________________ "Vootie!" - Mezzrow

11th January 2021, 06:05 PM	#26
Trebuchet Penultimate Amazing Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Port Townsend, Washington Posts: 31,015	Originally Posted by HHellpop It does not please me in the slightest to point out that this has already begun. A Running List of Record-Breaking Natural Disasters in 2020 Your accomplished scientist interviewee is correct. Here in southern Louisiana, it's not a matter of if New Orleans will become a coastal city, it's a matter of when. The tipping point was passed about 20 years ago. "Coastal"? Did you mean "submerged"? As to the poll, it's multiple choice. I voted options 3 and 4 which are not mutually exclusive. But I expect the country to be in deep doodoo for the rest of my lifetime.
	__________________ Cum catapultae proscribeantur tum soli proscripti catapultas habeant.

11th January 2021, 06:08 PM	#27
johnny karate ... and your little dog too. Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 14,419	Originally Posted by Modified I'm unfamiliar with the young peoples' lingo these days. Is "sex toilet" a good thing or a bad thing? Yes.

11th January 2021, 06:21 PM	#28
HHellpop Reluctant Galactic Assassin Join Date: Mar 2011 Location: Ylum Posts: 361	Originally Posted by Trebuchet "Coastal"? Did you mean "submerged"? As to the poll, it's multiple choice. I voted options 3 and 4 which are not mutually exclusive. But I expect the country to be in deep doodoo for the rest of my lifetime. Actually, you're right. I guess I wound up putting it in hopeful terms of my lifetime. But a recent Tulane study puts the coast somewhere close to Covington, north of Lake Ponchartrain, within 100 years, maybe longer. That's assuming we actually start electing people who care about it instead of the ones we have been, and stave it off a little longer. In other words, more likely 50 years. And I voted the same.
	__________________ "Vootie!" - Mezzrow

11th January 2021, 06:32 PM	#29
The Atheist The Grammar Tyrant Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 28,268	The vernacular down here is "down the gurgler" (drain) Irretrievably split down the right - you couldn't say it's split down the middle, centrism in America died last century - debt riding at $27T and counting, huge problems ahead from rising sea levels, crumbling infrastructure... I don't see a good way out - call Steven Pinker, I'm sure he'll be able to put positive spin on it.
	__________________ The point of equilibrium has passed; satire and current events are now indistinguishable.

11th January 2021, 06:46 PM	#30
welshdean Heb ei fai, heb ei eni Join Date: Jul 2002 Posts: 3,851	Meh, you'll all be fine. 90% of the Qster will be flat earth earthers by the beginning of Feb.
	__________________ "In science it often happens that scientists say, "You know that's a really good argument; my position is mistaken," and then they would actually change their minds and you never hear that old view from them again. They really do it. I cannot recall the last time something like that happened in politics or religion." Carl Sagan 1934 - 1996 RIP

12th January 2021, 05:42 AM	#31
The Great Zaganza Maledictorian Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 14,643	Nice try! but in these cases it's always "All of the Above"
	__________________ So what are you going to do about it, huh? What would an intellectual do? What would Plato do?

12th January 2021, 06:21 AM	#32
Horatius NWO Kitty Wrangler Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 29,014	Originally Posted by Oystein The options are of course vague. Take "There will be a long period of terrorism but not a real Civil War.": What constitutes "period of terrorism"? There has been some terrorism always, everywhere, at some level. So what thresholds can be defined to delineate such a period? And what is "long", anyway? I'd define it as a level of terrorism that actually starts to affect a lot of people's day to day lives. After 9/11, there was some increase in our awareness of the possibility of terrorism, the whole "See something say something" campaign, but if you weren't getting on a plane or trying to enter a major governmental facility, it didn't actually affect you that much. Going to the store, going to church, going to the pub, going to a football game, were all pretty much the same. No one stopped to think, "Will there be a bomb there? Will there be a mass shooting there?" That's what's likely going to change. You'll have to start thinking about the odds of being attacked almost anywhere. "The MAGAs have been quiet for a month, they probably won't attack the supermarket this week....That one idiot got arrested for shouting about hanging President Biden, so maybe they'll be up in arms this weekend, better skip church..."
	__________________ Obviously, that means cats are indeed evil and that ownership or display of a feline is an overt declaration of one's affiliation with dark forces. - Cl1mh4224rd

12th January 2021, 06:27 AM	#33
The Great Zaganza Maledictorian Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 14,643	it is clear terrorism when Representatives make political decisions because they are afraid of physical violence.
	__________________ So what are you going to do about it, huh? What would an intellectual do? What would Plato do?

12th January 2021, 07:05 AM	#34
Hlafordlaes Disorder of Kilopi Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: State of Flux Posts: 14,633	Originally Posted by newyorkguy I think the future looks increasingly grim. The current crisis will linger. Consider close to 75 million Americans voted for four more years of donald trump. Demographics will play an important role in decreasing the tension. My pessimistic hunch is, by the time we really regroup as a nation -- in another generation or two -- it will be when the climate change crisis begins to get out of control. We begin to have cycles of massive storms, causing severe damage and economic loss. Extreme summer heat waves where temperatures reach unsurvivable levels for days at a time. I read an interview with a very accomplished scientist who said he's given up. He thinks the window of opportunity to rollback the danger has closed. That humankind has been revealed as not having the political will to do what we had to do. He said that we will not be the first species to become extinct. That the world will go on without missing us. It's very gloomy but I have a hunch he's probably right. This movie has a very unhappy ending. Everyone dies in the final scene. Originally Posted by HHellpop It does not please me in the slightest to point out that this has already begun. A Running List of Record-Breaking Natural Disasters in 2020 Your accomplished scientist interviewee is correct. Here in southern Louisiana, it's not a matter of if New Orleans will become a coastal city, it's a matter of when. The tipping point was passed about 20 years ago. I do believe the local answer to the Fermi paradox is now unambiguously clear. But given this propensity to short-term thinking and woo, I expect nuclear war, which will happen when: - pressures on resources, especially food and water, start to become catastrophic sometime in the next 30-50 years - the dollar is dumped as reserve currency and US borrowing costs skyrocket - the US is massively boycotted for the first time by a large number of China-aligned nations, and has overseas monies seized as payment for war crimes ... and Americans find that the only solution that is still available is the one that has always been relied on in lieu of sound policy and the hard work of understanding the world on its terms: war.
	__________________ Driftwood on an empty shore of the sea of meaninglessness. Irrelevant, weightless, inconsequential moment of existential hubris on the fast track to oblivion. His real name is Count Douchenozzle von Stenchfahrter und Lichtendicks. - shemp