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Tags 2020 elections , Biden administration , Biden controversies , joe biden , Kamala Harris

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Old 21st October 2021, 07:24 AM   #2521
Tero
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Sinema is assumed to oppose raising taxes. The funding that allows Biden to spend trillions. Or maybe it's just a single trillion by now:
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/1...rations-516364
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Old 21st October 2021, 08:21 AM   #2522
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Originally Posted by Craig4 View Post
He'll caucus with the Democrats. He doesn't get to hold sway over the Senate if Republicans have 51 senators.
Ah but he would still have the controlling as otherwise it would be a tie and it goes to Harris. It all depends on who he thinks will give him the most power in control of the senate.

Still probably best to caucus with the democrats as Mitch is just fine with nothing getting done. Being an impediment to passing anything only matters if you care if anything gets passed.
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Old 21st October 2021, 08:41 AM   #2523
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
Data is from early August, before everyone saw what a cluster **** Afghanistan turned into. We'll see if his numbers hold up.
His Domestic approval is at 44 something (with over 50% disapproving), so I think it's almost certain his numbers have fallen. Especially with Afghanistan.
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Old 21st October 2021, 11:31 AM   #2524
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Originally Posted by sir drinks-a-lot View Post
His Domestic approval is at 44 something (with over 50% disapproving), so I think it's almost certain his numbers have fallen. Especially with Afghanistan.
the numbers are down, but it's driven by the lack of progress or even apparent effort on domestic issues.
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Old 21st October 2021, 12:53 PM   #2525
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Originally Posted by Tero View Post
Sinema is assumed to oppose raising taxes. The funding that allows Biden to spend trillions. Or maybe it's just a single trillion by now:
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/1...rations-516364
Part of the trillions is targeted, means-tested tax cuts. The figure often quoted is not merely expenditures.
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Old 21st October 2021, 02:42 PM   #2526
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Originally Posted by Ziggurat View Post
Data is from early August, before everyone saw what a cluster **** Afghanistan turned into. We'll see if his numbers hold up.
"Turned" into? Afghanistan was always a cluster ****, and any expectation that the withdrawal wouldn't also be was hopelessly naive. I'm surprised it didn't turn out worse.

But falling public opinion is hardly surprising considering their ignorance.

Why is Afghanistan falling to the Taliban so fast?
Lt Col Daniel L Davis (ret)
Quote:
Sat 14 Aug 2021

The Taliban has been seizing territory in Afghanistan at an alarming rate, having captured all or parts of 10 provincial capitals from the Afghan National Defense Security Forces (ANDSF) in the past week. Far from representing a reason for Joe Biden to halt the withdrawal, however, this rapid deterioration in Afghan security has exposed the bankruptcy of US policies...

For the better part of at least the past 15 years, senior US civilian and uniformed leaders have been publicly telling the American people that the war in Afghanistan was necessary for US security, making progress, and supporting an Afghan security force that was performing well. All of it, from the beginning, was a lie...

“You know, you really shouldn’t be surprised” by how fast the Afghan military is collapsing, Sopko said in congressional testimony in late July. For at least nine consecutive years, Sopko continued, the Sigar had been “highlighting problems with our train, advise and assist mission with the Afghan military.” Why did the American public not know about this weakness earlier?
So now the public finally 'discovers' the truth (which wasn't hard to guess) and it's all Biden's fault? Of course is it, to someone with no critical thinking skills and the memory of a goldfish. It's not just ignorant consumers of news who are at fault though - the news media itself has been pushing this 'Biden failure' angle ever since they realized that the deadline was real. Why? Because bad news sells, and they needed to make as much out of it as possible before it was over (when we will go back to ignoring Afghanistan because who cares about a few towel-heads).

But what is the main reason Biden's approval is dropping? The usual one - democrats:-

Democrats' months of dithering are sandbagging Biden's popularity
Quote:
President Biden's popularity is in bad shape. The FiveThirtyEight poll average has him at 43.5 percent approval, which is approaching former President Donald Trump territory — and more than 10 points down from Biden's peak in March.

Now, there are surely a number of factors behind this fall. The mainstream media had a jingoistic panic attack over U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the ongoing pandemic is horribly unpleasant and depressing. The economy is in rough shape, too. All this surely took a toll on Biden's numbers.

But it's also not a coincidence that Biden's peak popularity came after his party quickly passed the huge American Rescue Plan (ARP), or that he's now at a low point after seven months of incomprehensible Democratic dithering in Congress over his Build Back Better agenda. It shows how his party's recent lack of political virtues like confidence, boldness, and aggression has sapped his popularity...

Speaking personally — as someone well to Biden's left who nevertheless recognizes his original, full-priced agenda as a big step forward — it's been a profoundly demoralizing seven months. Watching the party twiddle its thumbs trying to make sense of the erratic and self-contradictory garbage coming out of Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.V.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) to get something worth passing through Congress is both boring and maddening.
The same democrats who just recently 'discovered' what a cluster **** Afghanistan was, now are 'bored and demoralized' by the reality of politics. Where is the confidence, boldness, and aggression we expected? Perhaps we should have voted for Trump instead!
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Old 21st October 2021, 04:13 PM   #2527
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I will say Biden did a bad job evacuating Afghanistan when someone points me to a country where citizens think they did a great job evacuating. No group seems to think the country they reside in did a good job.
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Old 21st October 2021, 07:08 PM   #2528
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Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
Part of the trillions is targeted, means-tested tax cuts. The figure often quoted is not merely expenditures.
The focus was on Sinema. She at first opposed any changes in tax. But having bad press from her veteran advisors that resigned, she is OK on tax changes now.
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Old 21st October 2021, 09:06 PM   #2529
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Quote:
Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) squabbled behind closed doors Wednesday, with Manchin using a raised-fist goose egg to tell his colleague he can live without any of President Biden's social spending plan, Axios has learned.
https://www.axios.com/manchin-sander...aa8e1d908.html

I love this story so much. I find it particularly amusing when an earnest but clueless group runs into the buzzsaw of reality. There are some democrats that probably should have known better, but the reality that Manchin controlled the agenda was obvious since January.

In the article, he said just pass the infrastructure bill and wait six months to see what happens. Instead of doing that, they played around with a plan they didn't have the votes for when they could have already been on the six month wait with a passed infrastructure bill.
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Old 22nd October 2021, 06:02 AM   #2530
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Manchin is "young" enough to want another term. His next election is 2024. He will want to be remembered for something other than a powerful vote...if he votes...rather than voting no. He has to juggle his coal backers and democratic working class voters. Though he trashes entitlements, infrastructure jobs will be attractive in his state. Therefore he will in the end vote for a whittled down bill with zero climate money.
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Old 22nd October 2021, 06:27 AM   #2531
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There was a political cartoon I saw yesterday. It was set on Halloween at the "Sinemanchin" house, with Manchin and Sinema standing on their doorstep with looks of utter terror on their faces. They were being confronted by a Trick-or-Treater dressed as the Bill from the old Schoolhouse Rock "I'm Just a Bill" short, saying "I'm a Bill that actually passed Congress."
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Old 22nd October 2021, 07:12 AM   #2532
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
https://www.axios.com/manchin-sander...aa8e1d908.html

I love this story so much. I find it particularly amusing when an earnest but clueless group runs into the buzzsaw of reality. There are some democrats that probably should have known better, but the reality that Manchin controlled the agenda was obvious since January.

In the article, he said just pass the infrastructure bill and wait six months to see what happens. Instead of doing that, they played around with a plan they didn't have the votes for when they could have already been on the six month wait with a passed infrastructure bill.
That the Democrats weren't on top of messaging and setting expectations low since day 1 is probably the big error here.

It's even worse than the Obama years that Republicans went full obstructionist. At least in that scenario the Democrats could partially deflect blame for inaction on the opposite party taking a deliberately obstructionist approach.

This time around the problem is that Democrats are obstructing their own party head. Much blame is being placed on Manchin and Sinema, but the broader problem is that the party is not unified enough to govern on the razer thin margin they secured last election. On paper the Democrats have total control (barely) of government, but in practice they are still largely paralyzed.

Republicans showed that obstructing government was an effective political ploy, and it will likely be even more effective now that it's the supposed majority party obstructing itself.

I guess Biden has little choice but to accept whatever insanely neutered bill Manchin and Sinema are willing to accept and pretend it's some great accomplishment, but any hope of having material conditions significantly improved for large swaths of the voting public before the next election seems lost.

Biden is riding out his paralyzed presidency, unless Democrats can somehow broaden their majority in the Senate.
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Old 22nd October 2021, 07:27 AM   #2533
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Biden wanted to pass a very progressive bill whilst pretending that it's just business as usual, in the hope of appealing to a moderate center.
That backfired because Republicans will call every Democrat a socialist/communist and Democrats want more than just a continuation of Obama.
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Old 22nd October 2021, 07:46 AM   #2534
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post

I guess Biden has little choice but to accept whatever insanely neutered bill Manchin and Sinema are willing to accept and pretend it's some great accomplishment, but any hope of having material conditions significantly improved for large swaths of the voting public before the next election seems lost.

Biden is riding out his paralyzed presidency, unless Democrats can somehow broaden their majority in the Senate.
To your last point, what was the most liberal spending bill Obama proposed? I went looking, and I think it was the 800 billion ARRA act. Manchin supports a bill bigger than that, and it isn't because of inflation.

The baseline is relative. You call it neutered. But if you told 2009 Bernie Sanders that he could get a 1+ trillion appropriation instead of ARRA, with a means tested child tax credit monthly payment that no one was even proposing, he might have thought that was more progressive.
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Old 22nd October 2021, 07:50 AM   #2535
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
To your last point, what was the most liberal spending bill Obama proposed? I went looking, and I think it was the 800 billion ARRA act. Manchin supports a bill bigger than that, and it isn't because of inflation.

The baseline is relative. You call it neutered. But if you told 2009 Bernie Sanders that he could get a 1+ trillion appropriation instead of ARRA, with a means tested child tax credit monthly payment that no one was even proposing, he might have thought that was more progressive.
I don't think Obama was much of a spender, nor anywhere near as progressive as his campaign materials would have the public believe. He governed quite conservatively. Biden doesn't enjoy the same level of wild celebrity status that Obama benefited from, and conditions and expectations seem to have shifted quite a bit since those days.
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Old 22nd October 2021, 07:53 AM   #2536
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
I don't think Obama was much of a spender, nor anywhere near as progressive as his campaign materials would have the public believe. He governed quite conservatively. Biden doesn't enjoy the same level of wild celebrity status that Obama benefited from, and conditions and expectations seem to have shifted quite a bit since those days.
That is what I'm saying. Expectations shifting doesn't change the reality that Manchin is supporting the most progressive spending legislation progressives have gotten in decades, if ever. Thinking they could have gotten more doesn't make it less progressive.

But this is the progressive victory....They shifted the discourse so much that they got a senator from west Virginia to support a trillion in spending.
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Old 22nd October 2021, 08:07 AM   #2537
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
That is what I'm saying. Expectations shifting doesn't change the reality that Manchin is supporting the most progressive spending legislation progressives have gotten in decades, if ever. Thinking they could have gotten more doesn't make it less progressive.

But this is the progressive victory....They shifted the discourse so much that they got a senator from west Virginia to support a trillion in spending.
The question is whether the increase in willingness to spend is keeping apace with the increased need (or perceived need).

Things are much worse now than it was 10 years ago. it could be more and still not even close to good enough.
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Old 22nd October 2021, 08:27 AM   #2538
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
The question is whether the increase in willingness to spend is keeping apace with the increased need (or perceived need).

Things are much worse now than it was 10 years ago. it could be more and still not even close to good enough.
That seems like a pretty irrelevant question. It not being good enough doesn't change anything.
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Old 23rd October 2021, 02:28 AM   #2539
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To poke at a follow-up -

‘Why did we fight?’ Challenge of governing is wearing down Taliban.
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Old 23rd October 2021, 02:42 AM   #2540
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Deleted, wrong thread
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Old 23rd October 2021, 03:58 AM   #2541
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^ Wrong thread
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Old 23rd October 2021, 02:15 PM   #2542
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Not sure if I'm in the correct thread. Um...
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Old 24th October 2021, 03:59 PM   #2543
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Originally Posted by Delvo View Post
If Biden were to make his next big move based on trying to avoid losing the next election, it would need to be on a subject almost nobody is talking about yet. The runaway housing market is runawaying much faster now than it was in 2005-2007... as in, prices going up as much in a month as they did before in a year. If something isn't done, that points to our next round of "2008" being bigger than 2008 was.
Well this has changed in a way that I don't think most people were expecting, but it's still not being mentioned in political news. I only found out because I've been paying attention to real estate in particular. (I've never owned before and have long considered it impossible & also probably not even a good idea, but now I might buy sometime within the next year because of changes in my circumstances.)

A crash was always only one of three possibilities, although it was the easiest one to expect. We seem to be in the beginning of one of the other two options now. Prices in some major markets/regions have gone down three months in a row, but not very steeply, and not everywhere. That points to either a general downturn that's too slow to be called a "crash", or just a slight temporary fluctuation in a market that's still really, overall & in general, following the same rocket trajectory as before. (All rises & falls in almost any numbers in the natural world & economics have fluctuations.)

Some people say the prices can't keep getting worse and "what goes up must come down", but, if there is such a limit, we aren't near it yet; it can indeed get much worse. Japan has hundred-year mortgages. China sells only 70-year leases from the government instead of real ownership and still has down payments that take multiple generations of work to save up. I don't see much reason to think that's not where we're headed, but if it is, it will take time. (One sign of that is that there have begun to be a few 40-year mortgages instead of just 10/15/20... not long after the invention of the first 6-8-year auto loans.)

But, if this is the beginning of a gradual but real and meaningful reversal, then that's the best thing that could happen for the Democrats, because it's not an economy-undermining crash and it's not the continuation of the trend for prices to keep putting home ownership farther & farther out of more & more people's reach. One sign that this might be the case, rather than constant steep increases just being the permanent normal from now on at least until our housing market looks like China/Japan, is that the housing supply was low for the last year or two and the current shift in prices accompanies an increase in supply, which makes it look like the steep rise might have been just a result of a temporary condition which is now returning to normal.
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Old 25th October 2021, 03:29 AM   #2544
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...but circumstantial stuff like that won't matter since they're determined to throw everything away no matter what.

The latest news with the Big Bad Blunder bill is that, not only has Biden done the hatchet job on it that was predictable from him since before the election, but even Jayapal is out there now praising him for the wonderfulness of his hatchet job. It's been reduced to a worthless mockery. And this bill was the first time progressives had appeared to be putting up any fight on anything after a history of routinely caving in on everything else before. That was the first step toward starting to be taken seriously in the future even if they didn't get anything this time, and now at least one prominent member of the group is already slinking back to undo it all and confirm once again the promise to never do what they were elected to do.

And the Democrats act like there's some kind of mystery about why voters don't vote for them more and sometimes even look for someone to deliberately damage the system that keeps doing stuff like this.
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Old 26th October 2021, 05:04 AM   #2545
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Originally Posted by Delvo View Post
...but circumstantial stuff like that won't matter since they're determined to throw everything away no matter what.

The latest news with the Big Bad Blunder bill is that, not only has Biden done the hatchet job on it that was predictable from him since before the election, but even Jayapal is out there now praising him for the wonderfulness of his hatchet job. It's been reduced to a worthless mockery. And this bill was the first time progressives had appeared to be putting up any fight on anything after a history of routinely caving in on everything else before. That was the first step toward starting to be taken seriously in the future even if they didn't get anything this time, and now at least one prominent member of the group is already slinking back to undo it all and confirm once again the promise to never do what they were elected to do.

And the Democrats act like there's some kind of mystery about why voters don't vote for them more and sometimes even look for someone to deliberately damage the system that keeps doing stuff like this.
"This guy's not doing enough to fight cancer. I'm voting for cancer!!"
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Old 26th October 2021, 05:59 AM   #2546
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Originally Posted by gnome View Post
"This guy's not doing enough to fight cancer. I'm voting for cancer!!"
--Chris Rock
Is it primary season already?
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Old 26th October 2021, 07:29 AM   #2547
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Originally Posted by gnome View Post
"This guy's not doing enough to fight cancer. I'm voting for cancer!!"
--Chris Rock
Some people say comedy needs to be based on something true, but that's not accurate. It just needs to be based on something familiar, which includes, as in this case, familiar lies.
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Old 26th October 2021, 09:00 AM   #2548
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No paid leave in practically the last place on earth not to have it, with a "Democratic" "majority," in the midst/on the heels of an economically devastating pandemic, the bleeding of women from a workforce, & a full blown crisis in care is just the grimmest ******* embarrassment
https://twitter.com/rtraister/status...04436540248076
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Old 26th October 2021, 04:16 PM   #2549
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Nobody cared about Afghanistan the last couple decades when no conceivable victory was possible, and I don't see any reason why anybody is going to care now that we've admitted defeat. Ripping off the band-aid early in the term was a good play, by the time elections roll around nobody will give a ****.

https://trends.google.com/trends/exp...anistan&geo=US
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Old 27th October 2021, 01:38 AM   #2550
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Originally Posted by SuburbanTurkey View Post
Nobody cared about Afghanistan the last couple decades when no conceivable victory was possible, and I don't see any reason why anybody is going to care now that we've admitted defeat. Ripping off the band-aid early in the term was a good play, by the time elections roll around nobody will give a ****.

https://trends.google.com/trends/exp...anistan&geo=US
Wow.
That's telling
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Old 27th October 2021, 02:09 AM   #2551
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About those cargo ships waiting to unload and the idea of having the ports be open 24 hours til they're caught up instead of just the usual business hours...

Is there any reason why military personnel (National Guard, Corps Of Engineers, pick whatever unit you want) couldn't be assigned to that for a while?

(Actually, mentioning the Corps Of Engineers reminds me of another idea I've had before that still seems worth bringing up: have them do some of that civilian "infrastructure" work we've been talking about but not actually getting done. If that's where the need is, and the military is where the money is going...)
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Old 27th October 2021, 02:27 AM   #2552
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Longshoreman is an incredibly technical job these days, not something you can teach quickly and safely.
Covid reduced the number of workers, and it will take years to replace them - there is no short term fix.
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Old 27th October 2021, 06:12 AM   #2553
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It kind of sort of looks there might even be a vote of the Biden "everything" bill this week. Maybe.
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Old 27th October 2021, 06:19 AM   #2554
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
Longshoreman is an incredibly technical job these days, not something you can teach quickly and safely.
Covid reduced the number of workers, and it will take years to replace them - there is no short term fix.
Nonsense it is supposed to be all about California trucking regulations that are the problem. I have a coworker who will not shut up about it.
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Old 27th October 2021, 07:11 AM   #2555
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And what I've heard (which paper d'ya read, eh?) is that the real culprit is mainly that during the pandemic we've all ordered tons more stuff on line and the quantity has increased. Given the complexity of the world, it's probably all the things combined in some degree, but given the way we parse what we see, we are free to choose one thing to hammer away at, and get upset when trying to fix that doesn't solve everything.
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Old 27th October 2021, 08:03 AM   #2556
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
Longshoreman is an incredibly technical job these days, not something you can teach quickly and safely.
Crane operation too...


From this fortnight's Private Eye.
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Old 27th October 2021, 08:40 AM   #2557
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Loading/unloading might be slow now, but just wait until someone half-trained manages to cause serious damage to a crane or ship.
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Old 27th October 2021, 09:56 AM   #2558
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Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza View Post
Loading/unloading might be slow now, but just wait until someone half-trained manages to cause serious damage to a crane or ship.
You mean, like This?

(note, in this case it looks as if the ship was operating properly, and the crane was lowered too soon.)
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Old 27th October 2021, 10:02 AM   #2559
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Exactly like that
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Old 27th October 2021, 03:23 PM   #2560
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Originally Posted by bruto View Post
You mean, like This?

(note, in this case it looks as if the ship was operating properly, and the crane was lowered too soon.)


That's one of those slow-moving, "Oh, this is going to suck" kind of disasters you can see coming, but can do nothing to stop.

On the bright side, though, now I don't feel so bad about denting my dad's car backing out of the garage when I was sixteen.
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