[Continuation] The Russian Invasion of Ukraine (3)

[Aridas]

Originally Posted by zorro99

Three months into the invasion and the only thing the Russians have accomplished is seizing Mariupol, a city of less than half million. Ukraine successfully repelled the Russians from Kiev and other cities. Zelensky is still alive and well whilst Russian supporters are griping about the incompetence of senior leadership. Advantage Ukraine.

Don't forget Kherson, much as that fairly certainly fell primarily because of the betrayal of all the top people in charge of the defense. Melitopol fell more directly, as well. They've also completely leveled Popasna, one of those troublesome places that they just couldn't pass, and they still currently control lots of territory in general that they didn't before they invaded. They've also done tons of damage to civilian infrastructure and the civilian population and generally sowed chaos around the world (which Russia generally seems to count as working to their advantage). Ukraine's overwhelmingly surpassed expectation and Russia's dramatically underwhelmed expectations, certainly, but that's certainly not good reason to engage in such motivated forgetfulness. Bad arguments are not worth using when there's so many good ones available, especially when they're so easy to poke holes through, to poke at an underlying principle there.

[Aridas]

Looks like we might have a bit more news about why Russia's not been making all that much progress from Izyum. In this case, a Russian account of how the assault on Dolgen'koye has been going on. Dolgen'koye is a tiny place blocking their southern advance, for reference.

To poke at a couple bits of analysis/summation that may be of interest -

Quote:

A company is four platoons, each of which should have 30-40 infantrymen. Each platoon normally has four sections, so around 7-10 soldiers each. So, what should’ve been a company with 120-160 soldiers, in fact had 13. That’s, at best, just 10% of full strength. It was section pretending to be a company.

<snip>

They’re already what, 90% understrength, and then another 80% decide not to proceed. This was the closest to combat Viktor got. The rest of this info he got second-hand from other fighters.

<snip>

Seriously, not a single infantry fighting vehicle or truck to help carry the wounded back? You're going to tell me they have all that supposed combat power, and they made these guys march 4-6 hours each way, with no vehicle support? Or maybe Ukraine has done such a good job interdicting fuel supplies, that Russia literally can’t move its vehicles.

Quote:

Looking ahead, I’ll say that based on the fact that different units tried to take Dolgen'koye, I think that our command simply had the task of taking Dolgen'koye and simply sent in everyone they could. It got to a point where in early May they started sending only 7 people to attack!!

<snip>

If Russia had 22 functioning BTGs in the Izyum salient, they wouldn’t be throwing the freshest meat into that grinder. Their own officers say “it’s a suicide mission,” and yet they keep executing the order from who-knows-what-general who got his rank by being so stupid, he would never pose a threat to Putin’s regime. "We got 120? Throw them in! Frontal attack. Oh, only 18 returned? Smush them with those other survivors, and let’s do it again!”

Note that Russia lost over 100 men in this attack … because of two machine guns. Two. A tank would take out those prepared machine gun nests. But again, Russia couldn’t spare a single one.

Ouch.

Elsewhere, Russia's expanded out from Popasna, apparently without fighting in most of the villages that they've taken and been driven back just about everywhere that there was resistance. Russia's also apparently retaken some of that border territory back from Ukraine north of Kharkiv and lost some across the river to the east of Kharkiv, giving Ukraine a foothold there that further threatens the supply lines to Izyum.

[The Great Zaganza]

Putin's plan is to bring down the Ukrainian electric grid through the drain caused by the refrigeration units necessary to keep the corpses of Russian soldiers from decomposing.

[Captain_Swoop]

Originally Posted by lomiller

Combined arms has been used in various forms for hundreds of years. Combining infantry artillery and cavalry was key to Napoleons' success and Wellingtons' army was organized on a similar basis at Waterloo. In WW1 combined arms was one of the keys to the success of the 100 days, in WWII Germany was employing combined arms tactics from nearly the start.

I know, which makes me ponder the lack of combined arms tactics displayed by the Russians so far. They seem to have reverted to their old rush forward with lots of tanks and get them destroyed tactic.

[Captain_Swoop]

Russia's "liberation" of the self-declared Luhansk People's Republic in eastern Ukraine is almost complete, Moscow's defence minister has said in comments quoted by the Tass news agency.

More territory has been seized from Ukraine by Russian-backed separatists and Russia's own forces, Sergei Shoigu said.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61518209

[Captain_Swoop]

BBC Jeremy Bowen reports

Is Russian firepower starting to show in Ukraine's east?

Quote:

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has condemned the Russians for destroying the area.

That could be code for admitting the weight of Russian firepower is starting to tell.

These are not big advances – it’s mile by mile and village by village - but it looks as if the Russians are reaping their first tactical success in weeks from tried and trusted methods of advance behind heavy bombardments.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61518209

[Captain_Swoop]

Russian senator Frants Klintsevich has claimed his country’s slow progress in Ukraine is because Moscow's forces are fighting soldiers "with exactly the same mentality as ours",
He called Ukraine's military "one of the strongest and best-trained armies"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61518209

[Captain_Swoop]

The Russian governor of occupied Kherson said the region will soon be fully integrated into Russia.

[Captain_Swoop]

Two MPs from the ruling United Russia party have submitted a draft bill that will remove the upper age limit of 40 for men to sign a contract to serve in the armed forces.

[The Great Zaganza]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

Two MPs from the ruling United Russia party have submitted a draft bill that will remove the upper age limit of 40 for men to sign a contract to serve in the armed forces.

Did they read Old Man's War?
Or do they just want to rid the system of pensioners?

[Jack by the hedge]

Originally Posted by The Great Zaganza

Did they read Old Man's War?
Or do they just want to rid the system of pensioners?

Seems rather early to descend to the Volkssturm level of desperation.

[llwyd]

One pretty interesting factor is the how the nice, educated middle class boys from Moscow and St Petersburg are almost totally absent from the Russian fighting forces that consist of the poor masses from the dirt poor countryside and from the oppressed the ethnic minorities. Of course this does rather mirror the US armed forces (apart from the fact that the recruits are treated like human beings and genuinely valued for their service).

But in Finland basically the whole age class would go to the frontlines: the rich and the poor, the middle class and the recent immigrants, university graduates and those having a trade school diploma etc. And Russia is supposed to have some sort of conscription even now - it's certainly not like Finnish conscription.

[jimbob]

Originally Posted by Jack by the hedge

Seems rather early to descend to the Volkssturm level of desperation.

Well they seem keen to emulate as much of the Nazi approach elsewhere

[kookbreaker]

Can we just skip to the part where he shoots himself in a bunker?

[The Don]

It seems that the Russians are making slow, but inexorable, progress on the Eastern front.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share

The Russians report that they have appointed a special headquarters to oversee restoration in Donbas

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share

Despite the reported level of losses, the Russians don't seem to be letting up in their attacks. Are those losses being overestimated by some considerable margin ? Are the Russians simply more resilient to losses and they shrug off levels which would render other armies useless ? Are the Russians proving very adept at re-arming and re-supply ?

[Klimax]

Originally Posted by The Don

It seems that the Russians are making slow, but inexorable, progress on the Eastern front.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share

The Russians report that they have appointed a special headquarters to oversee restoration in Donbas

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share

Despite the reported level of losses, the Russians don't seem to be letting up in their attacks. Are those losses being overestimated by some considerable margin ? Are the Russians simply more resilient to losses and they shrug off levels which would render other armies useless ? Are the Russians proving very adept at re-arming and re-supply ?

Russians and their objective are already reduced to fraction of original. (Barely only two axis of advance are moving) It doesn't matter if Russian progress is slow, if it is terminally costly and slower than snail on Saharan desert and Ukraine gets timer to finish units from second phase of mobilization. Also don't forget that there are two counterattacks by UA in progress - From Kherson and north of Izium.

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by The Don

It seems that the Russians are making slow, but inexorable, progress on the Eastern front.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share

The Russians report that they have appointed a special headquarters to oversee restoration in Donbas

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl...ost_type=share

Despite the reported level of losses, the Russians don't seem to be letting up in their attacks. Are those losses being overestimated by some considerable margin ? Are the Russians simply more resilient to losses and they shrug off levels which would render other armies useless ? Are the Russians proving very adept at re-arming and re-supply ?

What do you mean, the Russians don't seem to be letting up in their attacks?

They've withdrawn several large formations from around Kiev, and given up that front entirely. Abandoning the Kiev front is what is fueling their stubborn grind in the east.

[Ziggurat]

Originally Posted by kookbreaker

Can we just skip to the part where he shoots himself in a bunker?

Say what you will about Hitler, but at least he killed Hitler.

[Aridas]

Originally Posted by Klimax

Russians and their objective are already reduced to fraction of original. (Barely only two axis of advance are moving) It doesn't matter if Russian progress is slow, if it is terminally costly and slower than snail on Saharan desert and Ukraine gets timer to finish units from second phase of mobilization. Also don't forget that there are two counterattacks by UA in progress - From Kherson and north of Izium.

Kharkiv, not Kherson. The Kherson front's been relatively stable, despite apparent efforts to change that from both sides.

For a while, now, though, as you've referenced, Ukraine's strategy in the east has mostly been attrition and slowing Russia down as they buy time for reinforcements to get trained and... allowing the rest of their forces to be concentrated in more strategically useful counterattacks elsewhere. Russia's fundamentally strongest on the eastern front from the start, after all - their logistics are crap, but that doesn't matter so much when they're fighting directly from area that they've controlled for years. Where they can, Ukraine's been especially pounding away at overextended supply lines, bringing their strength to bear against the enemy's weakness.

[The Don]

Originally Posted by theprestige

What do you mean, the Russians don't seem to be letting up in their attacks?

They are making slow and inexorable progress in the East. Every day there seems to be a little more red on the maps in Luhansk and Donestk.

Originally Posted by theprestige

They've withdrawn several large formations from around Kiev, and given up that front entirely. Abandoning the Kiev front is what is fueling their stubborn grind in the east.

Exactly. The talking heads were suggesting that the formations being withdrawn from around Kyiv were broken and that their morale was very low. We were told that it would take a considerable amount of time - months - for them to regroup and re-equip and return to the front line (if they ever would).

Instead here we are a few weeks later and those BTGs which were supposed to be inoperable are now back in action.

I'm kicking myself for being too optimistic about the degree to which Russia failed, hard, early. I fear that they'll continue to make slow progress in the East for months to come and that it'll be a long time (if ever) before Ukraine turns the tide there.

Now Russia has several more BTGs which were tied down in Mariupol which they can throw into the fray in the South which IMO bodes ill for the Ukrainian defenders.

[crescent]

Originally Posted by Klimax

Russians and their objective are already reduced to fraction of original. (Barely only two axis of advance are moving) It doesn't matter if Russian progress is slow, if it is terminally costly and slower than snail on Saharan desert and Ukraine gets timer to finish units from second phase of mobilization. Also don't forget that there are two counterattacks by UA in progress - From Kherson and north of Izium.

The Ukrainians are facing a pretty small force north of Kharkiv - maybe 3 BTGs.

The scope of the fighting in Donbass is much larger (in terms of the numbers of forces, not much in terms of geographic area). And around Popasna the Russians have been making actual progress:

Quote:

#Popasna Update - There is a growing risk that #Russian forces around Popasna may be gaining momentum against #Ukrainian defenders in the area. Today #Russia captured Nova Kamyanka, Stryapivka, Volodymyrivka, Trypillya & Druzhba to the W and Troitske to the S of the city.

Quote:

#Russian forces moved the front line 7mi/11km W in one day. #Ukrainian forces in the area are severely outnumbered and taking heavy losses in the fighting. #Russian forces are seeking to cut the main supply route to #Severodonetsk city by capturing Bakymuts'ke and Soledar.

Quote:

This is not the only supply route to #Severodonetsk, but it is the shortest & fastest currently available. Should this route fall to #Russia, #Ukraine will be forced to prioritize the defense of the remaining route, as well as send supplies & troops to the slower & longer route.

Hopefully the Orcs will will out of steam soon and/or are at least taking unsustainable levels of casualties, but for now the situation seems concerning.

[Aridas]

Originally Posted by The Don

Exactly. The talking heads were suggesting that the formations being withdrawn from around Kyiv were broken and that their morale was very low. We were told that it would take a considerable amount of time - months - for them to regroup and re-equip and return to the front line (if they ever would).

Instead here we are a few weeks later and those BTGs which were supposed to be inoperable are now back in action.

For what it's worth, that was under the assumption that they would be restored to decent fighting condition, rather than just being effectively thrown into a grinder for show - undermanned, under equipped, and without meaningful training to integrate any replacement manpower that they might have had. The combat power that a full BTG should supposedly be able to exert just isn't to be found, in short.

[Aridas]

Originally Posted by crescent

The Ukrainians are facing a pretty small force north of Kharkiv - maybe 3 BTGs.

The scope of the fighting in Donbass is much larger (in terms of the numbers of forces, not much in terms of geographic area). And around Popasna the Russians have been making actual progress:




Hopefully the Orcs will will out of steam soon and/or are at least taking unsustainable levels of casualties, but for now the situation seems concerning.

For the moment, I'm in the camp that says that it's not time to panic quite yet about the expansion from Popasna, especially given how, so far, it's reminiscent of Izyum. Russian gains around Popasna seem largely to be areas that were taken without a fight, for that matter. Not all, unfortunately.

[The Don]

Originally Posted by Aridas

For what it's worth, that was under the assumption that they would be restored to decent fighting condition, rather than just being effectively thrown into a grinder for show - undermanned, under equipped, and without meaningful training to integrate any replacement manpower that they might have had. The combat power that a full BTG should supposedly be able to exert just isn't to be found, in short.

I hope that's the case, but they seem to be relentlessly grinding away in the East and seem to have plenty of men, materiel and adequate morale to keep on going.

There are allegedly 22 BTGs in and around Izyum, though there are reports that 4 or more may have been redeployed North to protect supply lines. If Russia choose to do so, they could presumably redeploy some or all of these BTGs to perform a "short pincer" around Severodonetsk.

[Captain_Swoop]

Originally Posted by The Don

They are making slow and inexorable progress in the East. Every day there seems to be a little more red on the maps in Luhansk and Donestk.



Exactly. The talking heads were suggesting that the formations being withdrawn from around Kyiv were broken and that their morale was very low. We were told that it would take a considerable amount of time - months - for them to regroup and re-equip and return to the front line (if they ever would).

Instead here we are a few weeks later and those BTGs which were supposed to be inoperable are now back in action.

I'm kicking myself for being too optimistic about the degree to which Russia failed, hard, early. I fear that they'll continue to make slow progress in the East for months to come and that it'll be a long time (if ever) before Ukraine turns the tide there.

Now Russia has several more BTGs which were tied down in Mariupol which they can throw into the fray in the South which IMO bodes ill for the Ukrainian defenders.

That's the Russians problem though.
They should have withdrawn and rebuild the forces but have had to throw them back in too soon.
Why do you think the Baths the few forces they can divert from Mariupol will make a difference?
They have just spent weeks making very little headway where they have taken a battering.
What Russia needs are fresh formations.

[Jimbo07]

Originally Posted by Aridas

For what it's worth, that was under the assumption that they would be restored to decent fighting condition, rather than just being effectively thrown into a grinder for show - undermanned, under equipped, and without meaningful training to integrate any replacement manpower that they might have had. The combat power that a full BTG should supposedly be able to exert just isn't to be found, in short.

I keep thinking of things like Korea. By some estimates, at the Battle of Chosin, North Korea/China may have lost more troops than the UN even had in the field! They still "won" (in that the UN retreated).

Never underestimate the willingness of a dictator to kill his own troops!

I think this is something to keep in mind. Military service is not as popular in the West, and Western countries still keep favouring procurement of high tech devices at the expense of mass at sea (in the field, air, etc.). We're seeing the effectiveness of a smaller, highly trained force in Ukraine, with Western technology (arguably, without the full weight of that technology being brought to bear). On the flip side, we're seeing Russia willing to field units that would not be considered combat effective, otherwise. Not combat effective doesn't mean they can't provide mass, kill civilians, act like pirates, etc.

[The Don]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

That's the Russians problem though.
They should have withdrawn and rebuild the forces but have had to throw them back in too soon.

Is it too soon though, they seem to be achieving their objectives, albeit slowly. Of course the slowness of progress is consistent with the apparent Russian playbook of flattening an area, occupying it and flattening the next area.

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

Why do you think the Baths the few forces they can divert from Mariupol will make a difference?
They have just spent weeks making very little headway where they have taken a battering.

AIUI, they've got 6 or more BTGs which is a significant increase. Those BTGs were still effective enough to force the Ukrainian defenders to surrender.

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

What Russia needs are fresh formations.

That's certainly the message that respected commentators here are sending.

The Russians OTOH seem to be making inexorable progress in the East with "stale" formations.

[Aridas]

Originally Posted by The Don

I hope that's the case, but they seem to be relentlessly grinding away in the East and seem to have plenty of men, materiel and adequate morale to keep on going.

Ehh... they have been relentlessly assaulting, yes. In a drip, drip, drip fashion. Their main particularly notable success on the east involved literally leveling the tiny settlement of Popasna to the ground - not a single building standing, before Ukraine withdrew and they were able to take the rubble. On the current northern front, Russia will likely take Lyman at some point and they might eventually take Severodonetsk. After that, there's a river in their way. Getting a foothold across that river is exactly why Izyum was so important, which brings us to...

Originally Posted by The Don

There are allegedly 22 BTGs in and around Izyum, though there are reports that 4 or more may have been redeployed North to protect supply lines. If Russia choose to do so, they could presumably redeploy some or all of these BTGs to perform a "short pincer" around Severodonetsk.

They can try. For supposedly having 22 BTGs there, though, it's worth noting how much progress they've been actually been able to make. As for the "short pincer," it would either need to be extremely short or they would need to successfully get another river crossing foothold. So far, their various attempts at that have been going *quite* badly for them. If they did redeploy, though, that makes it all the easier for Ukraine to retake areas near Izyum.

[The Don]

Originally Posted by Aridas

Ehh... they have been relentlessly assaulting, yes. In a drip, drip, drip fashion. Their main particularly notable success on the east involved literally leveling the tiny settlement of Popasna to the ground - not a single building standing, before Ukraine withdrew and they were able to take the rubble. On the current northern front, Russia will likely take Lyman at some point and they might eventually take Severodonetsk. After that, there's a river in their way. Getting a foothold across that river is exactly why Izyum was so important, which brings us to...

As long as they're prepared to keep reducing places to rubble and have the requisite men and materiel to do so then presumably they can keep plodding on, devastating, in the same way.

Originally Posted by Aridas

They can try. For supposedly having 22 BTGs there, though, it's worth noting how much progress they've been actually been able to make. As for the "short pincer," it would either need to be extremely short or they would need to successfully get another river crossing foothold. So far, their various attempts at that have been going *quite* badly for them. If they did redeploy, though, that makes it all the easier for Ukraine to retake areas near Izyum.

Yes, my assumption was that they would stage a retreat around Izyum in order to free up those BTGs.

Yes, it would be a very short pincer.

[Aridas]

Originally Posted by The Don

As long as they're prepared to keep reducing places to rubble and have the requisite men and materiel to do so then presumably they can keep plodding on, devastating, in the same way.

Indeed. With that said, though, attrition is taking quite the toll on Russia's forces, both men and materiel. By the UK's public assessment, for example, Russia's lost about 1/3 of its men. In practice, that means a significantly greater than 1/3 reduction in combat capabilities. Equipment losses have been huge, as well - nearly the entire original numbers for some types of equipment, apparently. Also of note, as the artillery from the US continues to be put more into action, Russian artillery is under much greater threat due to being greatly outranged and of lower accuracy. That Russia can achieve plodding gains as they reduce the obstacles in their way to rubble is indeed worthy of note. That such doesn't stop Ukraine from retaking those piles of rubble as Russia weakens is also of note.

There is definitely cause for concern, but concern should ever be tempered with reason.

Originally Posted by The Don

Yes, my assumption was that they would stage a retreat around Izyum in order to free up those BTGs.

Yes, it would be a very short pincer.

Net gain Ukraine there, then, likely.

[Captain_Swoop]

Originally Posted by The Don

Is it too soon though, they seem to be achieving their objectives, albeit slowly. Of course the slowness of progress is consistent with the apparent Russian playbook of flattening an area, occupying it and flattening the next area.



AIUI, they've got 6 or more BTGs which is a significant increase. Those BTGs were still effective enough to force the Ukrainian defenders to surrender.



That's certainly the message that respected commentators here are sending.

The Russians OTOH seem to be making inexorable progress in the East with "stale" formations.

But they are losing more than they can put in as replacements.
Ukraine is growing in strength with new and better equipment coming in to the battle.

Russia are struggling to field anything at the strength it's supposed to be.

[Captain_Swoop]

Russia's plans to connect the Zaporizhzhia Ukrainian nuclear power station to the Russian electricity grid.
Russia's deputy prime minister plans to sell power from the plant to Ukraine or connect the facility to Russia if Kyiv refuses to pay.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61518209

[theprestige]

Originally Posted by The Don

As long as they're prepared to keep reducing places to rubble and have the requisite men and materiel to do so then presumably they can keep plodding on, devastating, in the same way.

What are you even on about?

This was originally supposed to be a lightning-fast conquest on multiple fronts, capturing the capital and overthrowing the government in the first week, while simultaneously surging out of Donbass and gobbling up the rest of the country.

Now it's going on four months later, and they've had to withdraw everything from their second front, and shove those depleted units back into the meatgrinder back east, just to keep making marginal progress there.

Of course they're going to be making tiny incremental gains in the one sector where they're focusing resources. The point is they've had to focus all their remaining resources in that one sector, just to make those gains.

You're interpreting that as winning, but it's actually mostly them losing everywhere else in a desperate bid to hang on to this one region.

[Captain_Swoop]

Originally Posted by theprestige

What are you even on about?

This was originally supposed to be a lightning-fast conquest on multiple fronts, capturing the capital and overthrowing the government in the first week, while simultaneously surging out of Donbass and gobbling up the rest of the country.

Now it's going on four months later, and they've had to withdraw everything from their second front, and shove those depleted units back into the meatgrinder back east, just to keep making marginal progress there.

Of course they're going to be making tiny incremental gains in the one sector where they're focusing resources. The point is they've had to focus all their remaining resources in that one sector, just to make those gains.

You're interpreting that as winning, but it's actually mostly them losing everywhere else in a desperate bid to hang on to this one region.

Yes, Look at the 6th Army at Stalingrad. It was still managing to capture the odd house or room in a building right up until the start of Operation Uranus. They had to deplete their units everywhere else to keep feeding the few they had in to the battle in the city, even stripping out command and support units to keep the infantry going.

[eerok]

I'm wondering if the additional arms and materiel that should flow from the US following their lend-lease act could make the difference in pushing back the Russians, or are there other factors apart from supply?

For example, Ukraine is reportedly losing fewer troops, and their morale and motivation are definitely higher than the Russians, but is it even remotely plausible for the Russians to persist until the Ukrainian forces are exhausted? They can throw a lot of fodder into this war, whereas Ukraine's population is a limited resource.

[Captain_Swoop]

Russian Embassy, UK has tweeted

[quote]Russia envoy to @UN #Nebenzia: The West is literally holding the whole developing world as hostage, driving it towards famine. Why must counties and regions suffer from irresponsible geopolitical games of the West? #foodcrisis[/euote]

[Captain_Swoop]

Originally Posted by eerok

I'm wondering if the additional arms and materiel that should flow from the US following their lend-lease act could make the difference in pushing back the Russians, or are there other factors apart from supply?

For example, Ukraine is reportedly losing fewer troops, and their morale and motivation are definitely higher than the Russians, but is it even remotely plausible for the Russians to persist until the Ukrainian forces are exhausted? They can throw a lot of fodder into this war, whereas Ukraine's population is a limited resource.

Where will the Russians get the 'fodder'?
If they get them, what is the point of 'throwing' them without weapons, training or support?

Why is the Russian population any less a limited resource?

[Jimbo07]

Originally Posted by eerok

t is it even remotely plausible for the Russians to persist until the Ukrainian forces are exhausted? They can throw a lot of fodder into this war, whereas Ukraine's population is a limited resource.

Back to Putin being a dictator. He doesn't care if his own troops are exhausted. At this stage, it's almost sadly comical. It's like the plan is to make a wall out of their own dead bodies.

ETA:

Quote:

Where will the Russians get the 'fodder'?
If they get them, what is the point of 'throwing' them without weapons, training or support?

It's not a case of the point, it's a case of they are. They're not following Western doctrine.

[Mike!]

Originally Posted by Captain_Swoop

Russian Embassy, UK has tweeted

Quote:

Russia envoy to @UN #Nebenzia: The West is literally holding the whole developing world as hostage, driving it towards famine. Why must counties and regions suffer from irresponsible geopolitical games of the West? #foodcrisis

There's enough irony and spin in that statement to generate a strong magnetic field.

[crescent]

Originally Posted by theprestige

Of course they're going to be making tiny incremental gains in the one sector where they're focusing resources. The point is they've had to focus all their remaining resources in that one sector, just to make those gains.

Russia apparently pushed 10 km yesterday outside Popasna. That's more than just incremental. The last Ukrainian forces at Avozstal have been taken into custody, most of the remaining Russian forces in Mariupol will be pushed north.

Perhaps not time to panic, but probably time to be concerned about the situation there. Ukraine really is losing ground in Donbass. It's true that it is just one region - but it is the region with the highest concentration of Ukrainian forces. Any loss there would be a major blow.