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Cont: The Russian invasion of Ukraine part 7

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jimbob said:
Over on Scrutable, one poster, EACLucifer, pointed out the other option that he might be desperate and that as a last roll of the dice to try to get too popular for Shoigu to attack.
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Which will be all lthe more reason for Putin to take him out.
 
dudalb said:
Which will be all lthe more reason for Putin to take him out.
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Yup.

And I don't think Prigozhin* is THAT stupid, so I HOPE for him to chose a kinetic approach to Shoigu..



Wit the recent developments, why do I want to spell his name, "P-A-U-L-U-S" and compare with another Nazi army that took months to capture 90% of a city on the Eurasian Steppe?
 
jimbob said:
Yup.

And I don't think Prigozhin* is THAT stupid, so I HOPE for him to chose a kinetic approach to Shoigu..



Wit the recent developments, why do I want to spell his name, "P-A-U-L-U-S" and compare with another Nazi army that took months to capture 90% of a city on the Eurasian Steppe?
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Nah no similarity I'm sure that Prigozhin will not be promoted to Field Marshal.
 
Of course, it is not just a war Special Military Operation; there is always concomitant psychological war, or a war of nerves that goes with it. Deception is part of the art of war. We won't know the full story until it is over. However, I do believe Russia is seriously unnerved, with the pathetic 9 May parade, the pathetic analogies in Putin's speeches likening Russia to defeating Hitler in WWII and it won't have gone unnoticed in Russia that parades were cancelled, hundreds of thousands of their soldier were never coming home, people being brutally conscripted on stepping outside their front door, a massive cost of living crisis, blackouts, food shortages, wages not being paid, jobs being lost, fires breaking out all over, etc. Russia barred from international sport, not in the Eurovision song contest (they take all of this seriously). Nobody likes them. They are ever more isolated.

Prigozhin is a typical narcissist General. He knows he has Putin's ear. He was likely in front of a green screen when he sent out the video with piles of dead Russian soldier behind him. OTOH he really is absolutely seething at the sheer number of casualties, covering his back to preclude himself getting the blame for the disaster that is turning out for the Russians. Yes, we have to be wary of trusting his motives for broadcasting his disaffection with Putin to the whole world. OTOH, something is definitely afoot. Telegram and Twitter has an air of excited anticipation that a counter offensive is on its way at last. Yes, the Russians have been fleeing Bakhmut. Yes, they are demotivated. Hardly making any gains.

Belgorod is nervous; centre of Russian logistics. Has been on fire. Have been explosions.

Change is in the air. The tables are turning.
 
SpitfireIX said:
Jake Broe has opined that Zelenskyy is waiting for the Ground Launched Small Diameter BombWP to arrive before launching the counteroffensive, which would make sense.
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Unless some of the probing attacks make unexpected progress, where of course you follow them up.
 
Vixen said:
Of course, it is not just a war Special Military Operation; there is always concomitant psychological war, or a war of nerves that goes with it. Deception is part of the art of war. We won't know the full story until it is over. However, I do believe Russia is seriously unnerved, with the pathetic 9 May parade, the pathetic analogies in Putin's speeches likening Russia to defeating Hitler in WWII and it won't have gone unnoticed in Russia that parades were cancelled, hundreds of thousands of their soldier were never coming home, people being brutally conscripted on stepping outside their front door, a massive cost of living crisis, blackouts, food shortages, wages not being paid, jobs being lost, fires breaking out all over, etc. Russia barred from international sport, not in the Eurovision song contest (they take all of this seriously). Nobody likes them. They are ever more isolated.

Prigozhin is a typical narcissist General. He knows he has Putin's ear. He was likely in front of a green screen when he sent out the video with piles of dead Russian soldier behind him. OTOH he really is absolutely seething at the sheer number of casualties, covering his back to preclude himself getting the blame for the disaster that is turning out for the Russians. Yes, we have to be wary of trusting his motives for broadcasting his disaffection with Putin to the whole world. OTOH, something is definitely afoot. Telegram and Twitter has an air of excited anticipation that a counter offensive is on its way at last. Yes, the Russians have been fleeing Bakhmut. Yes, they are demotivated. Hardly making any gains.

Belgorod is nervous; centre of Russian logistics. Has been on fire. Have been explosions.

Change is in the air. The tables are turning.
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Belgorod, anolther name from the "Great Patriotic War" that is reapearing.
Of couse with Belgorod, you have to wonder who is causing the explosions......
 
Only thing Keeping Special Military Operation from being the most misjudged name for a war ever is "The China Incident".
 
Drewbot said:
I think it will be combination of 1 and 2 or 1 and 3
[qimg]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/932/4HgYSJ.jpg[/qimg]
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If route 1 happens, it will be after one of the other two start. River crossings are not easy and Ukraine cannot afford the sort of casualties associated with it. It also requires resources not yet mentioned in what the west has been giving to Ukraine. Most notably, bridges. Even if that is a primary attack route, any Russian artillery can make short work of the bridges.

Attacking where your maps shows route 3 has an issue with not great terrain compared to route 2 and is much easier for Russia to resupply and reenforce. Could still happen but the risk level is higher than 2.

2 has one big issue. It has a closed flank and some not great terrain at the start. But once you get past the reservoir, the terrain starts to open up as you approach Melitopol. There is also an active insurgency there if you look up the ISW maps. It is also the most direct route to Crimea.

That said, I still say to keep an eye on Tokmak. If that falls, everything to the west and south of it is exposed to artillery and rockets. Also has a smaller area of insurgency around it than Melitopol. The terrain it is on is also not easy but if it isn't taken that is where Russia will be putting artillery.
 
Either way being able to cut off Crimea's land bridge will be important to the course of the war.
 
Wildy said:
Either way being able to cut off Crimea's land bridge will be important to the course of the war.
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And its bridge-bridge.

Waves a combination of ADM-160 and Storm Shadow at the Kerch Bridge
 
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Drewbot said:
I think it will be combination of 1 and 2 or 1 and 3
[qimg]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/932/4HgYSJ.jpg[/qimg]
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I reckon any attacks through route 1 will be pinning attacks, designed not to gain ground but to pin down defenders, at least until the main objective is captured.

The only way 1 develops into the main attack is if Russia weakens their defences on the left bank so much they can't actively defend a landing there. Which will take a significant weakening.
 
Word is that lots of things are falling from the sky in Russia lately.

One Su-35, one Su-34, and two Mi-8 reported down in Bryansk region. Worst day for the Russian military aviation since the first week of the war, when Moscow assumed that it had destroyed Ukrainian air defenses (reddit.com)
Also:

"Today the Ukraine Ministry Of Defense announced the award of "Hero of Ukraine" to the Russian missile crew responsible for the downing of 4 Russian Aircraft in 24 hours. "These brave missile crewman reflect great credit upon themselves and the spirit of the defense of Ukraine for their brave actions" a ministry spokesperson quoted from the award citation. "We hope that with the award of our nations highest military honor will serve as an incentive for other Russians to act with similar bravery to the discredit of nation from which they come".

The award was forwarded to the Russian embassy in Poland with a request for an in person award ceremony in Red Square.
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My conjecture is that the high profile success of Ukraine's ADM-160/Storm Shadow attack triggered a panic, and upset Moscow's precarious balance of air defense and IFF. Which is is to say Bryansk AD is having trouble being aggressive enough to intercept stealthy cruise missiles in a cloud of literal hax, and also cautious enough to avoid shooting down their own planes.

And speaking of that Ukrainian attack, I think it's telling that the US is willing to give Moscow direct experience with its premier electronic warfare drone. They must be pretty sure that the ADM-160 won't be seeing improved AD from any of its near peers anytime soon, even with this telemetry handed to them on a platter.
 
One has to admire the slow, steady burn of Ukraine's information management. Where and when is the counter-offensive going to hit? The Shadow knows. This is masterful.
 
jimbob said:
https://scrutable.science/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=3264&p=147436#p147419

Some interesting reasoning based on avowed amateur photographic analysis, suggesting that maybe it was Western air to air missiles.

Too big for MANPADS, to small for say S300, probably not ex Soviet AA missiles either (reply to my asking if any Russian missiles fitted)
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Shades of a Apollo hoax photo "analysis". Your source is suggesting a Ukrainian or NATO or Belarusian or Moscow plane fired a western air-launched missile somewhere near the Bryansk air defense sector.

The more parsimonious explanation is that Moscow's air defense ****** itself, and that your source is a jackass.
 
As always I find myself back at asking what Russia is hoping to accomplish.

I always get warry when we get to the point where everything the other side is doing is so obviously wrong to us.

Russia is stupid, overconfident, and lead by a madman but I don't know if I buy they are being this overly, on the nose wrong about everything.

I still wonder, at times, if they aren't playing some of this intentionally.

I get nervous whenever the other side keeps being wrong in the exact ways we expect them to be wrong.
 
JoeMorgue said:
As always I find myself back at asking what Russia is hoping to accomplish.

I always get warry when we get to the point where everything the other side is doing is so obviously wrong to us.

Russia is stupid, overconfident, and lead by a madman but I don't know if I buy they are being this overly, on the nose wrong about everything.

I still wonder, at times, if they aren't playing some of this intentionally.

I get nervous whenever the other side keeps being wrong in the exact ways we expect them to be wrong.
Click to expand...
If they were doing some of this intentionally, they'd have some gains to show for it.

What Putin was hoping to accomplish was the immediate capitulation of the Ukrainian people, concurrent with the capture of their capital, the overthrow of their government, and the installation of a Moscow puppet regime.

This failed because Putin had bad information about the quality and readiness of his troops, and he had bad information about the quality and readiness of the Ukrainian defenders. Being that overly, on the nose wrong about those two things has snowballed into the intractable mess Putin is in today.

Putin lacks the political capital to withdraw. He lacks the military wherewithal to decide the contest in his favor. And he lacks the diplomatic finesse to sue for a favorable peace brokered by a respected third party.

The issue isn't that Putin is a cartoon villain. The issue is that he's driven his country into an incident pit. That's less a matter of being consistently, stupidly wrong all the time, and more a matter of being critically wrong at certain inflection points.

And even if Putin and his generals are being smart now, you still have to account for the fact that the entire Moscow military apparatus is systemically, institutionally stupid. The best thing a wise commander in chief could have done is aggressively reform the armed forces fifteen, twenty years ago. You doubt that Putin is being overly on the nose wrong about everything? He was obviously overly, on the nose wrong about that.

What clever, competent thing do you imagine Putin might be keeping up his sleeve? A secret army ready to spring up the moment the counterattack begins? Mass raids of precision-guided missiles, targeting actual military assets of Ukraine? Dogs with bees in their mouths, and when they bark they shoot bees?

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tl;dr - even if Moscow isn't being this overly, on the nose wrong about everything, they've been this overly, on the nose wrong about enough things that there's no recovering now.
 
It is quite possible that Putin is intentionally leaching his country of every able-bodied man who might oppose him, safe in the knowledge that Moscow won't be invaded Nazi-Germany style: losing the war makes him safer, politically, IMO.
 
The Great Zaganza said:
It is quite possible that Putin is intentionally leaching his country of every able-bodied man who might oppose him, safe in the knowledge that Moscow won't be invaded Nazi-Germany style: losing the war makes him safer, politically, IMO.
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If his goal was/is to be the politically safe pariah leader of an isolated, economically depressed and militarily weak country he seems well on the way to achieving that aim. Wonder if he is proud of that.
 
Anyway, my headcanon has been, and remains, that the CIA got to Putin in Berlin back in the 80s. Now their man in Moscow is doing everything according to plan. Too bad about Ukraine, but you have to break a few eggs to make an omelet.
 
JoeMorgue said:
As always I find myself back at asking what Russia is hoping to accomplish.

I always get warry when we get to the point where everything the other side is doing is so obviously wrong to us.

Russia is stupid, overconfident, and lead by a madman but I don't know if I buy they are being this overly, on the nose wrong about everything.

I still wonder, at times, if they aren't playing some of this intentionally.

I get nervous whenever the other side keeps being wrong in the exact ways we expect them to be wrong.
Click to expand...

Arrogance is blindness, a failing with which even otherwise clever people can be afflicted. Indeed it's possible clever people are more susceptible. And being in power doesn't usually discourage arrogance. I think Putin believed his own hype and the clarity that comes with humility either came too late or possibly hasn't yet arrived.
 
JoeMorgue said:
As always I find myself back at asking what Russia is hoping to accomplish.

I always get warry when we get to the point where everything the other side is doing is so obviously wrong to us.

Russia is stupid, overconfident, and lead by a madman but I don't know if I buy they are being this overly, on the nose wrong about everything.

I still wonder, at times, if they aren't playing some of this intentionally.

I get nervous whenever the other side keeps being wrong in the exact ways we expect them to be wrong.
Click to expand...

Probably better off not thinking of Russia as a unified entity where they are working to a common goal. Different people involved want different things.

Putin wants to build a legacy for himself.

Putin's immediate subordinates are looking to gain power by coming out of this with a situation favoring them over their rivals.

Lower level leaders not on the battlefield are looking to make money.

People on the battlefield are fighting to not lose but not really trying to win.
 
As long as Putin keeps going, he doesn't have to admit defeat. He's framed this as an existential struggle, so now he's stuck with it. I expect Ukraine will make significant gains with their upcoming operations, but I don't think this will change Putin's mind.
 
theprestige said:
If they were doing some of this intentionally, they'd have some gains to show for it.

What Putin was hoping to accomplish was the immediate capitulation of the Ukrainian people, concurrent with the capture of their capital, the overthrow of their government, and the installation of a Moscow puppet regime.

This failed because Putin had bad information about the quality and readiness of his troops, and he had bad information about the quality and readiness of the Ukrainian defenders. Being that overly, on the nose wrong about those two things has snowballed into the intractable mess Putin is in today.

Putin lacks the political capital to withdraw. He lacks the military wherewithal to decide the contest in his favor. And he lacks the diplomatic finesse to sue for a favorable peace brokered by a respected third party.

The issue isn't that Putin is a cartoon villain. The issue is that he's driven his country into an incident pit. That's less a matter of being consistently, stupidly wrong all the time, and more a matter of being critically wrong at certain inflection points.

And even if Putin and his generals are being smart now, you still have to account for the fact that the entire Moscow military apparatus is systemically, institutionally stupid. The best thing a wise commander in chief could have done is aggressively reform the armed forces fifteen, twenty years ago. You doubt that Putin is being overly on the nose wrong about everything? He was obviously overly, on the nose wrong about that.

What clever, competent thing do you imagine Putin might be keeping up his sleeve? A secret army ready to spring up the moment the counterattack begins? Mass raids of precision-guided missiles, targeting actual military assets of Ukraine? Dogs with bees in their mouths, and when they bark they shoot bees?

---


tl;dr - even if Moscow isn't being this overly, on the nose wrong about everything, they've been this overly, on the nose wrong about enough things that there's no recovering now.
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This is a great summary of what's gone wrong for Moscow/Putin.

It's amazing how many people have forgotten that the whole plan was to finish this within a week. Land troops in Kyiv, capture and kill the government, install a puppet ruler. Game over.

Putin's plan failed in March 2022. Since then, there has been no plan. Well, no plan except to hang on desperately hoping for a way out.
 
If Russia can hold back the Ukrainians for enough time, EU, and particularly the U.S. might tire and force Ukraine to accept a territory loss.

At the last presidential election almost half of U.S. voters supported a party that is now wanting to gradually wind this war up. Trump might not be the next president, but he has already declared hat he’ll stop the war within 24 hours, and that can only mean by forcing concessions on Ukraine. If a Trump clone wins, he might not do it in 24 hours, but perhaps over a year?

A big Ukrainian victory this year might change all that.
 
eerok said:
As long as Putin keeps going, he doesn't have to admit defeat. He's framed this as an existential struggle, so now he's stuck with it.
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Actually, that's probably shrewd. If Russia gets pushed back to its own borders and then negotiates a peace, Putin can now say that they achieved their goals by continuing to exist, and that the war has weakened Ukraine, killed its more Nazi-esque military elements, and drained NATO stockpiles enough that Russia is now much more secure.



ETA: to be clear, it's all crap, of course.
 
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steenkh said:
If Russia can hold back the Ukrainians for enough time, EU, and particularly the U.S. might tire and force Ukraine to accept a territory loss.

At the last presidential election almost half of U.S. voters supported a party that is now wanting to gradually wind this war up. Trump might not be the next president, but he has already declared hat he’ll stop the war within 24 hours, and that can only mean by forcing concessions on Ukraine. If a Trump clone wins, he might not do it in 24 hours, but perhaps over a year?

A big Ukrainian victory this year might change all that.
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I think Ukraine understands this summer is their sole window of opportunity, and anything that prolongs it is in Russia's favor, so they'd best make it a decisive victory once and for all.
My thinking is the counteroffensive is being set to slow boil, and the heat has already been turned on, visually there's not a lot happening yet, but once it reaches a full boil, there'll be no mistaking it.
They've got a bunch of new, kick ass hardware that's in country, but hasn't been put into service yet, and I expect that to be a major game changer.
 
dasmiller said:
Actually, that's probably shrewd. If Russia gets pushed back to its own borders and then negotiates a peace, Putin can now say that they achieved their goals by continuing to exist, and that the war has weakened Ukraine, killed its more Nazi-esque military elements, and drained NATO stockpiles enough that Russia is now much more secure.

ETA: to be clear, it's all crap, of course.
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Putin can say what he wants as long as he stops killing and kidnapping people. I don't think Russians are going to build statues to honor him for this fiasco, though he might force them.

It goes without saying that he'll spout BS no matter what happens.
 
Mike! said:
My thinking is the counteroffensive is being set to slow boil, and the heat has already been turned on, visually there's not a lot happening yet, but once it reaches a full boil, there'll be no mistaking it.
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Agree. I think there's this expectation* that Zelenskyy will stand** on top of a hill, give a rousing speech, yell "Charge!" or "Allons!" or the Ukrainian equivalent, and the whole Ukrainian army will go charging across the plain to fight the Russians.

I don't think the Ukraine's big push is going to look anything like that. There will be a steady increase in Ukrainian military activity at various places along the front, with the Russians falling back in some places, and then later we'll realize that there were actually a lot of Ukrainian forces at some of the places where the Russians fell back, and in those places, the Russians had to fall back a lot. I expect that the Ukrainian near-term objectives won't be obvious until after the fact, but then we'll say, "Oh, that's gotta suck for the Russians."

*I don't think anyone with much military background expects anything like this, but a lot of media seems to.

**Actually, in my mental image, he's on horseback
 
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Leaked document reveals alleged Kremlin plan to take over Belarus by 2030
A group of U.S. and European media outlets, including the Kyiv Independent, has obtained a 17-page document allegedly detailing Russia's plans to subjugate Belarus and dismantle its independence.

The document details Russia's future steps to take full control of Belarusian political, economic, and military spheres by the end of the decade.

According to the document, by 2030, Belarus should have a single currency and tax system with Russia, and its media space must be under Russian control. The Belarusian army must comply with Russian regulations, while all key military production must be transferred from Belarus to Russia.
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https://kyivindependent.com/belarus...ed-kremlin-plan-to-take-over-belarus-by-2030/
 
jimbob said:
https://kyivindependent.com/belarus...ed-kremlin-plan-to-take-over-belarus-by-2030/
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I would guess there is nobody surprised to see that.

Even going back to the days of the Warsaw pact, the Soviets did things to make sure their allies could not go it alone. After they trashed Czechoslovakia's effort at reforms, the Soviets set up a logistics system that made all of the other pact members dependent on them. All the transportation assets and major ammo depots were run the the Soviets. If another member decided to change sides, they would suddenly have no fuel or ammunition coming their way.
 
jimbob said:
https://kyivindependent.com/belarus...ed-kremlin-plan-to-take-over-belarus-by-2030/
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Gee, speaking of Belarus, is Lukashenko dead?

msn said:
Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko was rushed back to Minsk almost directly from Red Square in Moscow on May 9 suffering from a serious but mysterious illness and hasn't been seen since. The Belarus strongman is clearly seriously ill and some are asking if he is already dead.
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https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...k&cvid=b879b6aa93f8431ba4eb0e26d8b99423&ei=15
 
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