Alright, then the best you might hope for at the moment with exotic matter is a "draw" with any other "dark matter" theory because it lacks empirical support. Even if LHC finds some type of unexpected form of matter, will it actually have the "properties" (like longevity) that astronomers expect? What are the odds?
I understand that the "missing mass" is still quite substantial. Would it matter much if the estimate of dark matter were reduced by, say, one half?
It wouldn't matter much to me right now whether it is substantial or less substantial, I would still tend to favor any theory that did not evoke a new entity. Just out of curiosity, would it matter to you?
From my perspective that 'substantial' part is directly related to our own human ignorance. Yes, it could be related to an exotic particle, or it could just be there are currents in space, and rotational patterns are affected by them. It could be that here is more dust, more suns, more of everything than we imagine. I just don't have any physical evidence that exotic forms of matter or necessary or empirically justified.
I understand that the case for ordinary matter to account for the missing mass is a difficult case to make (can you show otherwise?),
Well, ok, but those recent papers suggest that we are making steady progress in identifying that missing mass. If galaxies are really twice as bright as believed, then we can easily double the point sources and improve our mass estimates accordingly. Likewise we can fill in some of that missing mass with black holes (it's a small amount, but hey it all counts). We evidently have been grossly underestimating the number of small stars compared to bigger (more visible) stars in a given galaxy. All these things add up and our technologies are improving. I'm optimistic that our technologies will eventually help us to figure it out, and so far I see no reason to assume our missing mass comes in any exotic forms.
consequently, the theory involves the possible existence of some form of mass not yet understood. Why is that so far fetched?
We'll have to discuss "probability" here sooner or later I suppose. I don't know. Define "far fetched". From my perspective it seems "far fetched" especially in light of all those recent "discoveries" I cited earlier. It seems like we still have a lot to learn about the layout of matter in a galaxy, and even our own solar system. It just seems premature from my perspective to "assume" that exotic forms of matter are necessary. Maybe we just need to launch the James Webb telescope and we may find a lot more mass.
I can, but the problem is that observations show that the causes you feel are more likely -- actually appear to be less likely
Those "observations" seem pretty "primitive" to me considering we have a hard time directly observing an Earth sized planet in our own galaxy, let alone one that is millions or billions of light years away.
There does seem to be a "subjectivity factor" here between the concept of a "better" theory. I'm not quite sure how to bridge that gap given the limits of our current technologies.