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Old 18th February 2011, 03:09 AM   #1
andyandy
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What happens if the Bahrain Monarchy fall?

Carrying on the popular "what happens if...." threads on dissidence across the middle east, Bahrain is joining in on the action:

Quote:
Thousands of mourners are calling for the downfall of Bahrain's ruling monarchy as they begin burying those killed during an assault on pro-reform protesters that has brought army tanks into the streets of the west's most strategic Gulf ally.

The reaction against Bahrain's king and his inner circle reflects an escalation of protesters' initial demands for the Sunni monarchy's hold on top government posts to be diluted, and for discrimination by the Shia majority to be addressed.

The mood, however, appears to have turned towards defiance of the entire ruling system after the attack on a protest camp in Bahrain's capital, Manama, on Thursday left at least five dead and more than 230 injured. The country was placed on an emergency-like footing, with military forces in key areas and checkpoints on main roads.

"The regime has broken something inside of me ... All of these people gathered today have had something broken in them," said Ahmed Makki Abu Taki, whose 27-year-old brother Mahmoud was killed in the pre-dawn sweep through the protest camp in Pearl Square. "We used to demand for the prime minister to step down, but now our demand is for the ruling family to get out."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011...nfall-monarchy

Seems like it's a long way from the monarchy actually being over-thrown - but what would happen if democracy allowed countries like Bahrain to vote for their own leaders? The US is in a particularly difficult spot - wanting to be seen to be supporting democracy, whilst doing everything they can to make sure that their interests in the region are maintained (ie that a benign ally remains in charge....)

Are these events driving each other, or are they disparate events caused by a confluence of similar factors? Indeed, is the media just focusing more on any dissent because the media loves nothing more than a good narrative?

Discuss....
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Old 22nd February 2011, 05:37 AM   #2
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If the Bahrain Monarchy falls in a forest does anyone care?
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Old 22nd February 2011, 05:55 AM   #3
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I care but don't feel like guessing. But since you insist...

Saudi Arabia says it's ready to help Bahrain's rulers
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...022002699.html

So I imagine they feel it's important Bahrain's king doesn't fall. If I now say "dominoes", you won't think "pizza". Will you?
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Last edited by FireGarden; 22nd February 2011 at 06:00 AM.
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Old 22nd February 2011, 06:28 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by FireGarden;
I care but don't feel like guessing. But since you insist...

Saudi Arabia says it's ready to help Bahrain's rulers
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...022002699.html

So I imagine they feel it's important Bahrain's king doesn't fall. If I now say "dominoes", you won't think "pizza". Will you?

After it is generally accepted historically that the 1960s domino effect fear of communism was ill placed, it's remarkable to see what appears to be a real manifestation of the domino effect in action.....we live in interesting times
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Old 22nd February 2011, 11:43 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by andyandy View Post
Seems like it's a long way from the monarchy actually being over-thrown - but what would happen if democracy allowed countries like Bahrain to vote for their own leaders?
Consider this quote from Bahraini opposition leader Ebrahim Sherrif:
Quote:
"We not saying to the royal family 'you're not part of this society'. We are saying 'you are welcome to be equal, but not to be above the law'. We don't want to overthrow the monarchy.

"We'd like to see a UK- or Spanish-style constitutional monarchy. A republic does not solve the problem - we had republics in Tunisia and Egypt and they were the first to be overthrown," he said.
"Day of transformation in Bahrain's 'sacred square'" -- February 19, 2011
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12515906

A constitutional monarchy with a figurehead royal head of state and an elected head of government sounds like a reasonable compromise with much good precedent.
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Old 22nd February 2011, 04:34 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by FireGarden View Post
I care but don't feel like guessing. But since you insist...

Saudi Arabia says it's ready to help Bahrain's rulers
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...022002699.html

So I imagine they feel it's important Bahrain's king doesn't fall. If I now say "dominoes", you won't think "pizza". Will you?
mind if i sig the bolded part?
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Old 23rd February 2011, 08:25 AM   #7
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100,000 protesting in Bahrain.
That's 1/5th the population.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/23/wo...n.html?_r=1&hp

Originally Posted by NWO Sentryman View Post
mind if i sig the bolded part?
I wouldn't mind.
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Old 26th February 2011, 04:48 PM   #8
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What happens if the Bahrain Monarchy fall?

The Fifth Fleet will become a floating HQ, for one.
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Old 5th March 2011, 05:42 AM   #9
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Are the Saudis merely willing to help, or does it go further?:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...t-2232928.html

Originally Posted by Independent
King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia is widely reported to have told the Bahraini authorities that if they do not crush their Shia revolt, his own forces will.
And that's against a background of a possible uprising in Saudi, with a 'day of rage' planned for March 11.

There were protests on the 4th, but their size isn't clear:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/63652c86-4...44feab49a.html
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Old 5th March 2011, 05:52 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by FireGarden View Post
Are the Saudis merely willing to help, or does it go further?:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...t-2232928.html



And that's against a background of a possible uprising in Saudi, with a 'day of rage' planned for March 11.

There were protests on the 4th, but their size isn't clear:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/63652c86-4...44feab49a.html
and they will be equipped with nothing but the finest military equipment money can buy.....

I wonder if either the UK or the US would dare criticise the Saudis if they did intervene?
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Old 5th March 2011, 08:16 AM   #11
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the problem is that the Saudis control an artery of the world's oil supplies and could cut it off, making the Oil panic of 1973 look like an empty petrol tank.
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Old 14th March 2011, 06:31 AM   #12
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1000 Saudi troops, as part of a GGC force invited by Bahrain, are in Bahrain to guard key facilities:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12729786
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/mi...928850647.html
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