Global warming discussion III

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NASA: Hottest August Globally Since Records Began In 1880
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/09/15/3567464/nasa-hottest-august/

NASA data shows 2014 year to date (January through August) is the fourth hottest on record. All the hotter years were either El Niño years or had an El Niño preceding them — there is a few-month delay between the peak El Niño temperature and peak global temperature.

That puts us two-thirds of the way to the hottest ENSO-neutral year on record, while 2011 was the hottest La Nina year on record. If an El Nino does kick in this year it's a sure bet that 2015 will be the warmerst El Nino year on record. Of course, this just refers to surface temperatures, but some people seem to set great store by them.

On an unrelated matter :

Largest City In Vermont Now Gets All Its Power From Wind, Water And Biomass
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/09/15/3567307/vermont-renewable-power/

“We’re now in a position where we’re supplying Burlington residents with sources that are renewable,” said Ken Nolan, manager of power resources for Burlington Electric Department, earlier this month. “The prices are not tied to fossil fuels — they’re stable prices — and they provide us with the flexibility, from an environmental standpoint, to really react to any regulation or changes to environmental standards that come in the future.”

I only mention it because I find the phrase "largest city in Vermont" inexplicably amusing.
 
And how's that Antarctic land ice cover doing these days? Antarctica is a land mass, after all. A continental one, in fact.

Not so good according to the latest data.

Overall, the southern continent − 98% of which is covered with ice and snow − is losing 125 cubic km a year. These are the highest rates observed since researchers started making satellite observations 20 years ago.

http://www.theguardian.com/environm...caps-melting-at-unprecedented-rate?CMP=twt_gu
 
* there is a pause in global surface warming because that is subject to many factors leading to internal variation.
Actually the mythical Pause is now based on RSS, which is neither a measure of surface temperatures nor very reliable. The surface temperature Pause was abandoned some time ago, to no great fanfare. In fact with no mention at all, really; most AGW deniers don't seem to know it happened.
 
China to ban 'dirty' coal.

Australian coal exporters are scrambling to clarify the fallout from changes to China's coal import rules, which could expose the industry to billions of dollars in lost sales as China seeks to cut air pollution.
The Chinese government is to limit the use of imported coal with more than 16 per cent ash and 3 per cent sulphur from January 1, 2015, in a bid to improve air quality, especially in the major cities such as Beijing and around Shanghai.
At the same time, China is moving to force power utilities to slash coal import volumes, also with the stated aim of improving air quality, although this move will primarily give China's local coalminers a lift.
According to an analysis by Macquarie Bank, consultant Wood Mackenzie has indicated the Chinese ban could affect more than half Australia's thermal coal exports to China, although the ban is likely also to hit Indonesian coal exported to China.
"We all trying to sort out what is going on," one large coal exporter said on Tuesday. "The information has been fairly fluid.
"I'm not sure what the endgame is beyond driving more domestic production."
The Minerals Council of Australia said exporters could adapt to the changes.


So much for Australia trying to end the rise of "green" energy.

As for the "endgame", he can't even guess that it might have something to do with the atrocious pollution that coal is helping to create in China.
​
 
Actually the mythical Pause
What is up with calling facts "myths"? Skepticalpseudoscience does it all the time.
September 8, 2014 | If today’s tools for multiyear climate forecasting had been available in the 1990s, they would have revealed that a slowdown in global warming was likely on the way, according to new research.
According to absolute nobodies, there is no slowdown.
Some climate models simulate the global warming pause if they take account of cooling Pacific waters, according to new research.
According to pseudscience, there is no pause. According to actual real science, not only is it a reality, they want to know why.
The slowdown in the rate of global warming in the early 2000s is not evident in the multi-model ensemble average of traditional climate change projection simulations. However, a number of individual ensemble members from that set of models successfully simulate the early-2000s hiatus when naturally-occurring climate variability involving the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) coincided, by chance, with the observed negative phase of the IPO that contributed to
http://www.reportingclimatescience....ate-models-simulate-global-warming-pause.html
 
Not so good according to the latest data.
June 10, 2014
AUSTIN, Texas — Thwaites Glacier, the large, rapidly changing outlet of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, is not only being eroded by the ocean, it’s being melted from below by geothermal heat, researchers at the Institute for Geophysics at The University of Texas at Austin (UTIG) report in the current edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
http://www.utexas.edu/news/2014/06/10/antarctic-glacier-melting/
 
NASA: Hottest August Globally Since Records Began In 1880
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/09/15/3567464/nasa-hottest-august/
Classic fallacy of short term measurements. In 1955, when efforts to increase measurements of weather data really cranked up, only 10% of the world had any measurements at all. And the oceans were barely covered at all. Recent trends, when the data is much better, really show what is happening, rather than this "hottest year" pseudoscience.
NASA data shows 2014 year to date (January through August) is the fourth hottest on record.
That actually is almost meaningless in terms of climate. Looking at what is actually real, is scientific.

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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Looking at trends is really what climate is about. The warming trend is obvious in the NH cold season trend below.

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If that had continued, there would be little doubt about the AGW theory being correct. Instead, we can see how different things are now.
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So when somebody is selling you "it's hotter than ever" instead of discussing trends and global changes, hang onto your wallet.
 

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It's like debating with a creationist. They will never ever admit they could be be wrong and no one with any sense believes the rubbish they spout anyway so what's the point?
 
[qimg]http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/imagehosting/333255287ecd2326c8.gif[/qimg]

For once you got something right r-j. There is certainly an irony overload in your posts. 97% of climate scientists and 100% of scientific institutions believe the statistics are correct. You, Lord Monckton and Anthony Watts and a few other oddballs think they are fudged.
This thread is full of train wrecks of your creation but you never admit you are wrong. When proved wrong you just go on to create the next one. When asked for evidence you just ignore it. Like Alec said it's all pointless.
 
When proved wrong you just go on to create the next one.
If anyone ever offered any evidence, and it showed something, I have no trouble changing my mind. But the irony is, that instead of providing evidence, there are just claims, lies, insinuations and insulting nonsense. None of which is convincing. You have to provide scientific evidence to be effective.
Buckaroo said:
State succinctly what your entire argument is, please.
March 22 2013

Exactly. Rather than a blanket unscientific insult, like we see over and over, present your argument, your evidence, and act in a scientific manner. Like I did when I found the claims that "there is no theory" (and worse) so absurd, it borders on trolling. Or the original AGW theory conflict, which of course only got worse over time.
Buckaroo said:
R-j, putting aside for the moment that your claim that winters are getting colder is demonstrably false, you seem to believe that you are making some kind of point with it.
March 22 2013

I provided an abundance of scientific evidence, like posting a link to NASA, where James Hansen is discussing his theoretical ideas to explain the colder winters.
Or links to papers in respected science journals, papers by actual climate researchers, that clearly stated facts, there is no shortage of scientific evidence. The responses ranged from "winters are warming" to "global warming is causing colder winters", as well as the most popular, "I don't understand".

Buckaroo said:
You've failed to communicate what conclusion about AGW you are drawing from your erroneous belief about colder winters. This is why we say your posts are incoherent:
March 22 2013

Quite the contrary, my points are both easy to grasp, and supported by the evidence. What isn't supported, and is an example of woo woo talk, is claims like "You've failed to communicate what conclusion about AGW", or "You were shown to be wrong". Rather than claiming something, provide your evidence, make an argument.

I was direct and clear, and provided abundant sources for why I said something. For example March 19 2013
r-j said:
The unscientific continues.

Of course the science is being ignored. By the deniers.

That harsh winter that we are experiencing, it is not proof that global warming is not happening, but rather serves as proof that it is indeed happening, and even a bit faster than we might like to think.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/Global-Warming-Cold-Winters.html
Climate change brings colder winters to Europe and Asia

The world is warming, so why have winters been getting colder across much of Eurasia?
http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/news/52135
Cold Winters Driven By Global Warming
http://news.discovery.com/earth/cold-winter-snow-weather-global-warming-101222.htm
Cold Winters Caused by Warmer Summers, Research Suggests
http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?p=9084487#post9084487
Warmer summers cause colder winters, scientists say
Looking temperature and snow and ice data, researchers found that higher summer temperatures in the Arctic meant more moisture in the air, leading to more snowfall.
http://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/cl...r-summers-cause-colder-winters-scientists-say

More snow, especially early in the fall, has a feedback effect where the white snow reflects the sun, causing faster cooling, which leads to more snow, and the snow doesn't melt, so we get this amplification and it gets colder.

Colder, not warmer. And it is the warmer summers, and declining sea ice that may be causing the early snow.

So global warming has been making the winters colder (a clear trend), especially in February, which shows the most drastic decline of average temperatures. While this was obviously missed by almost every climate expert, a few have been predicting this. For decades.

Now that everybody knows it's happening, the climate experts are now switching, and publishing about how global warming is causing colder winters.

The sad thing is how this is being used to say all climate predictions mean nothing, when in fact it is how science advances. Once you know your theory is wrong, you change it.

That is science. Not denial of what is being observed.

Which is why the poor fool who still insists winters are warming is the real denier.

Any trouble understanding that? Or what the sources are saying?

"The sad thing is how this is being used to say all climate predictions mean nothing, when in fact it is how science advances. Once you know your theory is wrong, you change it."

Watts et al use any and all shortcomings to say it's all a scam, or fraud, or something. His enemies do the same thing, just about Watts et al

Both are being unscientific.
 
For those who don't ever follow links, there are new papers in the links I just used, and strangely enough, quite relevant to the never ending dispute over NH winters.

http://web.mit.edu/jlcohen/www/papers/Cohenetal_NGeo14.pdf

Here's an excerpt. Regarding why the theory does not predict or explain the colder winters. It also includes, in an actual 2014 scientific peer reviewed paper, the exact phrase "global warming theory", which make it sort of a "two birds with one stone" sort of move.

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I call that evidence. Scientific evidence. It's why insults and claims with no evidence mean nothing to me. While scientific research means a lot.

Note that they clearly state "While global warming theory is consistent with record warm temperatures and more intense precipitation events, it does
not directly explain cold extremes", which is pretty much what I said in March 2013, which started the whole "there is no theory" nonsense.
 

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And check.

And mate.



About the serious issue of NH winters getting colder?

GISS shows where it is happening.

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And the NCDC NH land winter trend shows it means the actual NH mean is trending down.

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For those who don't ever follow links, ...
For those who read this thread:
This is a yet another repeat of r-j's delusion that the words theory, global and warming found in a document means that the document is describing a scientific theory called "Theory of Global Warming" :jaw-dropp!
In this case we have Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather which contains a single occurrence of the phrase "global warming theory".

Irrelevant link: Check.
No description of a scientific theory called "Theory of Global Warming": Mate.
 
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r-j: Please cite your source for these University station temperatures

There are more assertions in your "University station" post:
The record heat wave of 1934, which shows up in the official record four times,
June 1, 1934 102
July 22, 1934 101
July 24, 1934 105
August 8, 1934 100
...
All those records are from the University station, the rooftop one that is claimed to be so inaccurate by the realclimate/berkeley experts.
r-j (19 September 2014): Please cite your source for these specific temperatures which you state are from the University station.
r-j (19 September 2014): Please cite your source that shows that the University station is the rooftop one that was moved to O'Hare.

These might be one source and should also answer:
r-j (8 September 2014): Please cite the source you used to check the temperature records of from 1930 to about 1950 (1930's and 1940's) for the weather station mentioned in the [URL="http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/03/new-daily-temperature-dataset-from-berkeley/"]RealClimate article.[/URL]
 
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