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Tags Coronavirus , Sweden incidents , Sweden issues

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Old 23rd June 2020, 01:35 PM   #1201
Rolfe
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OK, close. Certainly not 858 for England for the week.

Only 12 of these 921 from today were from Scotland, and although Wales is having a cluster it isn't that many. The estimate that last week England was averaging 1,200 a day is probably not that far out.

ETA: There have been 200 cases in the Welsh cluster, but they won't all have been on a single day.
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Old 23rd June 2020, 01:39 PM   #1202
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Quote:
Sweden and Swedes are described as something to be avoided – especially if you live in neighbouring countries. The reason is the government’s corona strategy, which has led to more than 5,000 deaths from Covid-19. This year, Swedes are banned from entering e.g. Norway, the newspaper writes.
“Norway is not the only Scandinavian neighbouring country that closes its gates to visits from Swedes this summer. Denmark and Finland have also closed their borders to Swedes for fear that they will spread new corona infection,” according to the article written by the journalist Thomas Erdbrink.

I wish we could close our borders to England. We could do it in effect, by requiring everyone inside Scotland to remain within say 20 miles of their main residence and imposing that on visitors so they'd be breaking the law as soon as they crossed the border, but it's politically sensitive.

So we're gearing up to handle clusters of newly-introduced cases and hoping there won't be too many.

Coronavirus elimination ‘not far away’


Quote:
Ms Sturgeon said: “The opportunity, if you get it to that level of elimination, is that you can deal with imported cases on a much more targeted basis rather than facing the prospect of general blanket lockdowns again.”
She said the Test and Protect strategy will be key at this point.
The First Minister added: “We are looking at all of these issues just now to make sure we are well prepared and well equipped so we can get it to that level of elimination.
“Which on the figures we’re looking at right now, we are not far away from, but we have to keep at it.
“Then it’s about how we keep it at that level and deal with any flare-ups and outbreaks as they appear.”
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Old 23rd June 2020, 01:43 PM   #1203
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
OK, close. Certainly not 858 for England for the week.

Only 12 of these 921 from today were from Scotland, and although Wales is having a cluster it isn't that many. The estimate that last week England was averaging 1,200 a day is probably not that far out.
Ok, fair enough then. Wherever they are they aren't down in my neck of the woods - at least they aren't being reported on the ITV webpage. Of course whether the numbers will start to climb again soon is another matter. It wouldn't surprise me at all, especially if they reopen the pubs..
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Old 23rd June 2020, 01:48 PM   #1204
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It's very patchy. Looking at the Scottish figures, Edinburgh, Glasgow, the lower Clyde valley conurbation and Dundee have active viral spread. Isolated cases in about half the other regions. We've had single-figure new cases per week in the Borders for several weeks (only one last week and one the week before), but Edinburgh, not far away, had 25 a couple of weeks ago.

I think it's likely to be more marked in England because rural areas and small towns may be close to clear but it will still be spreading in some cities.
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Old 23rd June 2020, 04:57 PM   #1205
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Hmmm. Here's a tweet saying the MRC Biostatistics Unit has estimated there are currently 4,300 new infections per day in England. Range from 2,400 to 7,300 with a 95% confidence interval.

https://twitter.com/GabrielScally/st...34803370721281

There isn't a link so I don't know how they figured this out. If it's working back on death rates like I did it's probably wrong because of the reasons I outlined above. But these guys are pros, they shouldn't be making false assumptions like that.
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Old 24th June 2020, 04:34 AM   #1206
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Here's a BBC article with statistics taken from the Worldometer which has the UK rate of new infections at over 1,000 per day. Most of these are in England, as I said the rate in Scotland has dropped below 20 per day.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53157269
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Old 24th June 2020, 07:22 AM   #1207
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This one is all over the world today:
Britiske eksperter advarer Johnson om fare for ny bølge (BT, June 24, 2020)
British experts warn Johnson about the danger of a second wave

https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/...in.html]Beware second wave of coronavirus, medics warn Britain[/url][/i] (Jakarta Post, June 24, 2020)
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Old 24th June 2020, 08:51 AM   #1208
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The Government Isn’t Certain The Coronavirus 'R' Rate Is Below 1 In England

They're also saying that the true rate of new infections per day in England is estimated at about 7,000.

Obviously I can't swear that the Scottish level isn't seven times what's being reported either, and I was toying with the possibility that it might be four or five times what's being reported, but I actually don't think so, I think most of the deaths we're seeing now are the people infected at the height of the pandemic who are on the long tail of days-to-death and have probably been in intensive care for weeks, rather than people infected three weeks ago.

But even if Scotland is missing a factor of four, or five, or seven, at least the starting figure is only 16.6 new cases a day, not over 1,000. Even a multiplier of seven only comes to 116 new cases a day and I don't think it's anything close to that. Only 0.3% of tests carried out yesterday were positive. You'd have to be trying awful hard to find uninfected people, or have an appalling sensitivity problem, to be missing much with those stats.

The Scottish government has explicitly declared its intention to eliminate community transmission of the virus by the autumn. I really do wonder if they're going to have to put some sort of restrictions on cross-border travel if this goes on.
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Old 24th June 2020, 08:59 AM   #1209
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
The Scottish government has explicitly declared its intention to eliminate community transmission of the virus by the autumn. I really do wonder if they're going to have to put some sort of restrictions on cross-border travel if this goes on.
You might have to start to think outside the box about this. Something radical like, oh I don't know, independence from the rest of the UK.
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Old 24th June 2020, 09:47 AM   #1210
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If only we had a government in Scotland committed to that...
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Old 24th June 2020, 12:54 PM   #1211
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Löfven: Linde försvarer Sverige (Aftonbladet.se, June 23, 2020)
Löfven: Linde defends Sweden Maybe they should both focus on saving the lives of their senior citizens. That would no doubt improve Sweden’s image abroad.

And speaking of Sweden’s image. Some private companies would also like the government to work on the country's image:


Quote:
Gränsen mellan Sverige och Finland förblir stängd ett tag till, meddelade Finlands utrikesminister Pekka Haavisto under tisdagen. Det innebär ännu ett hårt slag för kryssningsföretagen, som nu vill att regeringen ska jobba hårdare för Sverigebilden.
Färjebolag vill att regeringen förbettrar Sverigebilden (DagensNyheter.se, June 24, 2020)
Translation:
The border between Sweden and Finland remains closed for the time being, according to Finland’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Pekka Haavisto, on Tuesday. That is another hard blow for ferry lines, which now want the government to work harder on Sweden’s image.
Ferry company wants the government to improve Sweden’s image

Quote:
Stanna hemma om du är sjuk, håll avstånd och tvätta händerna.
Mantrat från statsepidemiologen och läkaren Anders Tegnell på Folkhälsomyndigheten har etsat sig fast hos svenska folket under coronapandemin.
(…)
Tegnell slår i programmet fast att det som varit jobbigast och gnagt i honom mest är vad mer som hade kunnat göras.
– Jag tror inte vi har några bra svar – än. Det finns en del tydliga skillnader mellan länder, hur vi registrerar dödsfall skiljer sig åt, andelen äldre i våra befolkningar varierar och inte minst organiserar vi vår äldrevård på olika sätt. Visst ska vi jämföra och utvärdera, lära oss, men att dra säkra slutsatser redan nu kan leda till många felaktiga svar.
Självkritisk Tegnell: Dödstalen borde ha kunnat undvikas (Aftonbladet.se, June 24, 2020)
Translation:
Stay at home if you’re ill, keep distance and wash your hands
The mantra from the national epidemiologist and doctor Anders Tegnell at the Public Health Agency has imprinted itself on the Swedes during the corona pandemic.
(…)
On the TV show, Tegnell states that what’s been toughest and nagged at him the most is the question what else could have been done.
- I don’t think that we have any good answers – yet. There are many clear differences between countries, how we register the number of deaths is different, the percentage of old people in our populations vary, and we have different ways of organizing the elderly care. Of course, we have to compare and evaluate, to learn, but drawing definite conclusions so soon may lead to many wrong answers.
Tegnell: The number of deaths should have been avoidableIFor the most part, they were – if he had listened to the people warning him, which he didn’t.

Quote:
Stockholm tillhör den tiondel av de europeiska regionerna som drabbats hårdast av coronaviruset, enligt en sammanställning som SvD tagit del av.
Det är nyhetsbyrån Newsworthy som analyserat den så kallade överdödligheten i 500 regioner i Europa den senaste tiden.
I Stockholmsregionen dog totalt 5 510 personer fram till maj i år, både till följd av covid-19 men också andra dödsfall, jämfört med 3 200 under samma period förra året. Det innebär att regionen haft 71 procent fler dödsfall i år än föregående år.
Det gör att Region Stockholm hamnar på plats 32 av 500 av de analyserade europeiska områdena i sammanställningen.
Nio av tio av de värst drabbade områden ligger i norra Italien.
Stockholm bland Europas värst drabbade (Aftonbladet.se, June 24, 2020 – 06:48)
Translation:
Stockholm belongs to the 10% of the European regions that were hit hardest by the coronavirus, according to a compilation that SvD participated in.
The news agency Newsworthy has analyzed the so-called excess mortality in 500 regions of Europe recently.
In the Stockholm Region a total of 5,510 people died before May of this year, both caused by Covid-19 but also by other causes, compared to 200 in the same period last year. This means that the region had 71 percent more deaths than in the previour year.
This places Region Stockholm on #32 of 500 analyzed European regions in the compilation.
Nine of the ten regions that were hit the hardest are in Northern Italy.
Stockholm is among Europe's hardest hit regions

Quote:
Läkares vittnesmål om hårda prioriteringar bland patienter inom intensivvården väcker politiska reaktioner. Oppositionsregionrådet Aida Hadzialic (S), anser att pandemin förtydligar vad nedmonteringen av den offentligt drivna sjukvården resulterar i.
– Professionen har varnat för konsekvenser – ingen har lyssnat, säger hon.
S om iva-prioriteringar: Konsekvens av nedmontering av offentlig vard (DagensNyheter.se, June 23, 2020)
Translation:
Doctors’ testimony about hard prioritizations among patients in intensive care cause political reactions.
Member of the opposition in the Regional Council Aida Hadzialic (Social Democrat) thinks that the pandemic makes it clear what downsizing the state-operated health care system leads to.
- The professionals have warned about the consequences – nobody listened, she says.
Social Democrat about ICU prioritizations: A consequence of downsizing public health care
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 24th June 2020, 01:02 PM   #1212
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I see some people on Twitter pleased that left-wing parties are doing better in Swedish opinion polls.
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Old 24th June 2020, 01:06 PM   #1213
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Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, June 24, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 516 (5,209) 343 193
USA: 375 (124,036) 25,749* 16,504 *still incoming
Denmark: 104 (603) 54 8
Finland: 59 (327) 12 2
Norway: 46 (249) 16 6
Iceland: 29 (10) 0 0 Either no changes since yesterday or not yet reported.
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 24th June 2020, 01:18 PM   #1214
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I see some people on Twitter pleased that left-wing parties are doing better in Swedish opinion polls.

I think that there is reason to assume that the liberalization, i.e. privatization of the care industry, has contributed to the outbreak, which may make people reluctant to support right-wing parties. But Sweden's corona crisis management has been just as bad as Trump's - but unlike Trump, they haven't had the benefit of sensible epidemiological advice.

As mentioned above, the interview with the Minister of Foreign Affairs was a catastrophe, but it doesn't seem to have harmed the government as much as one might have expected. Or maybe the polls were from before the interview. That right-wing extremists attack the government's strategy may even make it seem more reasonable than it is.
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 24th June 2020, 02:43 PM   #1215
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Anders Tegnell doubles down.

Sweden's chief epidemiologist, who is largely behind the approach of keeping large parts of the country open during the coronavirus pandemic, says he was surprised to see other European Union countries close their borders.

Anders Tegnell, chief epidemiologist for Sweden's Public Health Agency, described his country's strategy in a programme by Swedish public radio channel Sveriges Radio P1 as a "classic pandemic model" that he had been discussing with international colleagues for 20 years.

Tegnell said "it was as if the world went crazy and everything we discussed seemed completely forgotten".


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/new...ectid=12342826
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Old 24th June 2020, 02:50 PM   #1216
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He might be right that that was the plan for an influenza epidemic. This is a far nastier virus.
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Old 25th June 2020, 12:29 AM   #1217
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Quote:
Many Swedes were initially reassured that its response to the crisis had been led by healthcare experts, not politicians, fuelling a belief that it acted rationally as other countries responded emotionally.
(…)
But Elisabet Lann, the Gothenburg city councillor responsible for elderly care and a member of the opposition Christian Democrats who is sceptical about the government strategy, says 200 years of peace and neutrality have left Sweden slow to react. The response has been cloaked in a self-image of a country that believes it behaves calmly while others are impetuous. “We don’t like to be irrational because of feelings, or be frightened to make irrational moves,” she says. “We look at other countries as more impulsive.”
(…)
“All of us who work with this, every day and night, we think, ‘Was this right or wrong?’” says Mr (Leif) Dotevall. “Some days we think we were right and other days not at all. Finally, we may be surprised to see the whole picture.”
Coronavirus: Sweden starts to debate its public health experiment (Financial Times, June 22, 2020)

Interesting graph comparing Sweden, the UK, Belgium, Denmark and Norway.
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 25th June 2020, 02:30 AM   #1218
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It's an interesting question as to why deaths in Sweden have declined and are declining despite the lack of a lockdown. It could be the number of people who are voluntarily locking down, and the less drastic measures like college closures and distancing.

The really bad Britain situation is down to locking down too late, but also I think due to the early strategy allowing unrestricted inward travel to a major international hub and allowing major mass international events (football, racing) to spread the virus right across the country. I saw an interesting article showing coronavirus deaths on a regional basis and Britain was the only country to be a bad colour everywhere. Other countries had bad areas but also areas where the virus hadn't really taken hold before they began stringent control measures. (Scotland could have been one of these but for our government's crazy decision to do exactly what London did, on the same day, regardless of the local situation.)

It makes it look as if Sweden isn't really that bad despite not locking down. Actually it is that bad, it's just that Britain is super-terrible-on-speed. I think they did it deliberately because they wanted to get the epidemic over and done with as fast as possible so they wanted the virus to spread to all parts of the country as fast as possible, then they had a "what have we done?" moment in March.
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Old 25th June 2020, 04:42 AM   #1219
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Scotland today. Two more people died, no clue as to how long they'd been ill for, or when they might have caught the virus. Only five new cases. This is only the second day (the first was yesterday) when new cases has been in single figures. We supposedly still have 721 active cases (yesterday's figure) but we can win this over the summer if we don't go mad.
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Old 25th June 2020, 07:12 AM   #1220
dann
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
He might be right that that was the plan for an influenza epidemic. This is a far nastier virus.

And unlike the 'rona, lockdowns eliminate the flu almost immediately.

Quote:
Influenzasæsonen 2019/2020 var den mildeste set i flere år. Spredningen af den nye coronavirussygdom (COVID-19) til Danmark i slutningen af februar 2020 medførte iværksættelse af omfattende smittebekæmpelse i uge 11 og 12, hvorefter forekomsten af cirkulerende influenzavirus stort set forsvandt.
Influenzasæsonen - opgørelse over sygdomsforekomst 2019/20 (SSI, June 24, 2020)
Translation:
The flu season 2019/2020 was the mildest in several years. The spread of the new coronavirus disease (Covid-19) to Denmark in late February 2020 led to a massive struggle against transmission in the weeks 11 and 12, and then the presence of circulating flu virus virtually disappeared.
The influenza season - account of current diseases
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 25th June 2020, 07:25 AM   #1221
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Apparently we tested nearly 4,500 people yesterday and only found five positive samples. A positivity rate of only 0.1%. This doesn't fit the theory of there being a lot more than we're aware of, particularly not now that the message is getting out about people getting tested if they have any symptoms at all. And as they say, if one person doesn't come forward then the people they infect will. Or if they don't infect anyone else, that's not a problem anyway. It also doesn't feel like poor sensitivity on the test. That would show up in numbers stubbornly staying up, and they're not.

Todays "active cases" number is down to 640. I'm not sure how they define an active case, but at least it's coming down. It may be a metric to watch as we go forwads.
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Old 25th June 2020, 07:26 AM   #1222
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Got my antibody test yesterday. I'm counted as class-three personnel, so I could get one, although not through local authorities as I was supposed to as they can't get their **** together. Had to go private through my work health care, and even they just got their tests and weren't sure my blood test wouldn't just spill all over the centrifuge as the tubes were all wrong.

Will get a response early next week hopefully, provided they don't mess my test up.
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Old 25th June 2020, 07:32 AM   #1223
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Ti deltagere i Black Lives Matter-demonstration smittet med coronavirus (TV2.dk, June 25, 2020)
Ten participants in the BLM protest infected with the coronavirus
They say that they aren't sure that the ten cases were infected at the protest. When you ask 15,000 people to get tested, it is not unlikely that they will discover other cases that were infected somewhere else.

Antikroppar hos 17 procent av testade i Stockholm: ”Indikerar en utbredd smittspridning” (DagensNyheter.se, June 24, 2020)
Antibodies in 17% of people tested in Stockholm. ”Indicates widespread contagion”

Quote:
• "I jämförelsen av dödstal mellan 2019 och 2020 finns en kraftig ökning framför allt i den äldsta åldersgruppen under april och maj", slås det bland annat fast i rapporten.
• Äldre personer, i synnerhet de över 80 år, har hittills drabbats hårdast oavsett det totala antalet avlidna i Sverige.
• Rapporten visar också att de äldre i Sverige, i relation till befolkningen i övrigt, inte är mer drabbade än äldre i andra länder i Norden. Andelen personer över 70 år som avlidit i covid-19 är till mitten av juni 87 procent i Finland, 88 procent i Danmark, 87 procent i Norge och 89 procent i Sverige.
SKR:s rapport hur äldreomsorgen har klarat coronapandemin (SVT.se, June 25, 2020)
Translation:
• In comparison to the number of deaths between 2019 and 2020, there is a massive increase in April and May in the oldest age group, in particular,” the report states, among other things.
• Old people, in particular those older than 80, have so far been hit the hardest in spite of the total number of deaths in Sweden.
• The report also shows that old people in Sweden, in comparison to the rest of the population, are not harder hit than old people in other Nordic countries. The percentage of people older than 70 deceased from Covid-19 until mid-June was 87% in Finland, 88% in Denmark, 87 percent in Norway, and 89% in Sweden.
Report from Sweden’s Municipalities and Regions (SKR) about how the elderly care coped with the corona pandemic

The Swedes are still in denial! The report shows that old people in Sweden were significantly harder hit than old people in Finland, Norway and Denmark - as were young people and the middle-aged and children (probably) - but it sounds so much better when you put it like this. The old dead people were accompanied by younger Swedes. Isn't that nice!
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 25th June 2020, 07:32 AM   #1224
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
And unlike the 'rona, lockdowns eliminate the flu almost immediately.

Translation:
The flu season 2019/2020 was the mildest in several years. The spread of the new coronavirus disease (Covid-19) to Denmark in late February 2020 led to a massive struggle against transmission in the weeks 11 and 12, and then the presence of circulating flu virus virtually disappeared.
The influenza season - account of current diseases

That's interesting!

Our flu season was mild too, so that there was actually a negative number of excess deaths in January/February. It was all over and done with by week 5 and people didn't really start social distancing and cancelling things until about week 10.
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Old 25th June 2020, 07:41 AM   #1225
dann
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Apparently we tested nearly 4,500 people yesterday and only found five positive samples. A positivity rate of only 0.1%. This doesn't fit the theory of there being a lot more than we're aware of, particularly not now that the message is getting out about people getting tested if they have any symptoms at all. And as they say, if one person doesn't come forward then the people they infect will. Or if they don't infect anyone else, that's not a problem anyway. It also doesn't feel like poor sensitivity on the test. That would show up in numbers stubbornly staying up, and they're not.

Congratulations!

Quote:
Today's "active cases" number is down to 640. I'm not sure how they define an active case, but at least it's coming down. It may be a metric to watch as we go forwards.

I think the definition of active cases depends on 1) getting tested positive in the first place, and 2) not dying! I think that the health care system in Denmark automatically assumes that if you are still alive and free of symptoms 30 days after you were tested positive, you are no longer an active case. It doesn't seem to require a new test or an antibody test.
And you don't get a diploma.
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 25th June 2020, 07:49 AM   #1226
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Originally Posted by uke2se View Post
Got my antibody test yesterday. I'm counted as class-three personnel, so I could get one, although not through local authorities as I was supposed to as they can't get their **** together. Had to go private through my work health care, and even they just got their tests and weren't sure my blood test wouldn't just spill all over the centrifuge as the tubes were all wrong.

Will get a response early next week hopefully, provided they don't mess my test up.

Hmmm. Antibody test lacks proper assessment.

I'm not saying you shouldn't have got the test, but for goodness sake don't act on the result if it's positive! Serology tests can be a bugger and this isn't nearly a mature enough discipline to be using a result to relax precautions. As several people say in that article, serology tests are a surveillance tool, not something that should affect how any individual behaves.
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Last edited by Rolfe; 25th June 2020 at 07:54 AM.
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Old 25th June 2020, 07:51 AM   #1227
dann
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Originally Posted by uke2se View Post
Got my antibody test yesterday. I'm counted as class-three personnel, so I could get one, although not through local authorities as I was supposed to as they can't get their **** together. Had to go private through my work health care, and even they just got their tests and weren't sure my blood test wouldn't just spill all over the centrifuge as the tubes were all wrong.

Will get a response early next week hopefully, provided they don't mess my test up.

Congratulations. I would like to get tested for antibodies, and I think we can at this point, but I am not sure about the accuracy of the antibody tests. The last time I heard about them, they seemed to have a pretty high percentage of false negatives as well as positives.
I came down with something in mid-February. It started with a dry cough and then I had a fever (very low) for about 4-5 days. It would be nice to be able to adjust my behavior accordingly, but as long as the tests aren't very precise. I would feel like an idiot if I had a false positive for antibodies and then got infected because I never actually had it in the first place.
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 25th June 2020, 07:53 AM   #1228
dann
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
Hmmm. Antibody test lacks proper assessment.

I'm not saying you shouldn't have got the test, but for goodness sake don't act on the result if it's positive! Serology tests can be a bugger and this isn't nearly a mature enough discipline to be using a result to relax precautions.

Well, that confirms my suspicions!

ETA: uke2se's antibody test is probably different from the one described in you link:
"Will get a response early next week hopefully"
Your link says, "Approx 20 mins in analysis"
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx

Last edited by dann; 25th June 2020 at 08:00 AM.
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Old 25th June 2020, 08:03 AM   #1229
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
I think the definition of active cases depends on 1) getting tested positive in the first place, and 2) not dying! I think that the health care system in Denmark automatically assumes that if you are still alive and free of symptoms 30 days after you were tested positive, you are no longer an active case. It doesn't seem to require a new test or an antibody test.
And you don't get a diploma.

I asked the guy who crunches our numbers online and he said he takes active cases as all new cases in the past four weeks minus any new deaths in the past four weeks. I haven't quite got my head round that but it sounds basically similar although without taking symptoms into account.

Maybe as the numbers get lower our authorities will follow up remaining cases a bit better and start to give a more scientific count of active cases. As things stand we're just (as of today) entering a period where four weeks ago new cases were declining quite rapidly, so we should see these active case numbers do the same over the next week or two.
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Old 25th June 2020, 08:07 AM   #1230
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
Congratulations. I would like to get tested for antibodies, and I think we can at this point, but I am not sure about the accuracy of the antibody tests. The last time I heard about them, they seemed to have a pretty high percentage of false negatives as well as positives.
I came down with something in mid-February. It started with a dry cough and then I had a fever (very low) for about 4-5 days. It would be nice to be able to adjust my behavior accordingly, but as long as the tests aren't very precise. I would feel like an idiot if I had a false positive for antibodies and then got infected because I never actually had it in the first place.

Don't change your behaviour in any way as a result of an antibody test. If it will make you more relaxed and help you sleep at night, or even just satisfy your curiosity, then fine, but take it from me, you can't cut back on precautions. Career in disease control using these bloody tests here. Practically wept with relief when accurate PCR tests became available.

Originally Posted by dann View Post
Well, that confirms my suspicions!

ETA: uke2se's antibody test is probably different from the one described in you link:
"Will get a response early next week hopefully"
Your link says, "Approx 20 mins in analysis"

Depends on the method. The article is talking about point-of-care tests but most tests will not be done that way. Most tests will still be sent to the lab and if the lab has any sense they won't be given the fast turnaround priorlty given to the PCR virus tests.

Also, point-of-care antibody tests can be a coin-toss. I wouldn't go near one for a brand new agent, I wouldn't trust it on a bet. I'd need to see a much longer period of evaluation, tweaking and proving in the field first.
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Last edited by Rolfe; 25th June 2020 at 08:31 AM.
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Old 25th June 2020, 11:52 AM   #1231
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Idiot statisticians. I think we actually had ten new cases reported today, not five. Drilling into the regional stats we seem to have had ten actual positive results, and then five people previously reported as positive changed to negative on a retest. No indication of when the original positive result was, it could have been weeks ago for all we know. But they've just added up all the numbers reported today and got five, from ten then take away five. It's as if the statisticians were obsessed by the total number of positives, when what we want to know are the numbers of new infections occurring.

Sure, maybe the total number of people with a positive test only increased by five today, but there were ten new people diagnosed!

Ten isn't so bad anyway. It's still the second-lowest day we've ever had.
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Old 25th June 2020, 07:04 PM   #1232
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That sounds promising but how is the border?
Nrw Zealand seems to have weathered letting people leave quarantine early without testing but has cost government dearly and deservedly.
Eradication makes for a happy nation.
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Old 25th June 2020, 11:07 PM   #1233
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Originally Posted by Rolfe View Post
I asked the guy who crunches our numbers online and he said he takes active cases as all new cases in the past four weeks minus any new deaths in the past four weeks. I haven't quite got my head round that but it sounds basically similar although without taking symptoms into account.

A few people seem to have the disease lingering on. If they are tested again, I assume that they will go by the latest test + 30 days.
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 25th June 2020, 11:09 PM   #1234
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Originally Posted by Samson View Post
That sounds promising but how is the border?
Nrw Zealand seems to have weathered letting people leave quarantine early without testing but has cost government dearly and deservedly.
Eradication makes for a happy nation.

What was the point of not testing them before letting them leave?
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 25th June 2020, 11:11 PM   #1235
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Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, June 25, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 518 (5,230) 230 193
USA: 383 (126,780) 28,693 15,723 USA numbers from this morning except New cases from last night, CET.
Denmark: 104 (603) 21 9
Finland: 59 (327) 5 2
Norway: 46 (249) 0 6
Iceland: 29 (10) 6 0 Iceland has 9 active cases.
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 25th June 2020, 11:48 PM   #1236
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Tegnell: ”Det är på väg åt rätt håll. Vi har inte längre en överdödlighet” (SvenskaDagbladet.se, June 25, 2020) [/quote]
Tegnell: “We are going in the right direction. We no longer have excess mortality”

Pekas ut som alarmister av Tegnell – slår tillbaka (Expresssen.se, June 25, 2020)
They are accused of being alarmists by Tegnell – they hit back

Anders Tegnell om forskarnas kritik: ”Är man kritisk måste man komma med vettiga alternativ.” (Expresssen.se, June 25, 2020)
Anders Tegnell about the researchers’ criticism: “If you criticize, you have to come up with sensible alternatives”No, you don’t – and they actually already did. That he is still in denial isn’t their fault.

Quote:
Hur hanterar svenskarna pressen från coronapandemin vi lever i?
Det börjar se ut som ett krig.
På ena sidan: yngre som är rasande på äldres krav på hänsyn och ansvar.
På den andra: äldre som drabbas av en ilska de inte förstår.
Jag hör från många människor som lider svårt av omgivningens nonchalans, hån och ibland öppna hat nu i coronatider.
Något är riktigt sjukt i den svenska folksjälen (Aftonbladet.se, June 25, 2020)
Translation:
How do the Swedes cope with the pressure from the corona pandemic, in which we are living ?
It begins to look like a war.
On the one hand: young people who are furious about the demand of old people for
On the other hand: Old people affected by anger that they don’t understand.
I hear many people in this corona crisis suffering from the nonchalance, disdain and sometimes open hatred of their surroundings.
Something is really sick in the soul of the Swedish people

Tegnells markering mot granländerna: ”Ligger nu på en högre nivå än Sverige” (Aftonbladet.se, June 25, 2020) [/quote]
Tegnell about the neighbouring countries: ”Are now at a higher level than SwedenNo, it’s not what you might think and what I thought. He has found a funny way of talking about the fact that travel activities for Swedes are now restricted because the borders of other countries are closed to them, whereas citizens of these countries are free to go almost everywhere – except Sweden. More about this …

Norge stoppar resor till Sverige (DN.se, June 25, 2020)
Norway bans travelling to Sweden – Gotland was excempt from the rule, but not anymore. Anybody going to Sweden faces two weeks of quaranine when they return to Norway.

Gränsen mot Danmark förblir stängd – även för skåningar (SVT.se, June 25, 2020)
The Danish border remains closed – even for people from Scania - Scania was supposed to have been exempt from the Danish restrictions after pressure from Swedish politicians and the Danish opposition, but not anymore

FHM presenterar nya krav på munskydd i vården (SVT.se, June 25, 2020)
The Public Health Agency presents new requirements about masks in nursing homes - Tegnell and others seem to have discovered that masks are useful after all.
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 26th June 2020, 12:10 AM   #1237
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Quote:
Sverige finns bland elva europeiska länder som Världshälsoorganisationen WHO har utfärdat en särskild varning för när det gäller smittspridning.
– Det är tyvärr en total feltolkning av data, säger statsepidemiolog Anders Tegnell till SVT.
Tegnell om WHO: Det är en feltolkning av data (SvenskaDagbladet.se, June 26, 2020)
Translation:
Sweden is one of 11 European countries that the WHO has made a particular warning for about the spread of infections.
- That is a complete misinterpretation of the data, unfortunately, says national epidemiologist Anders Tegnell to SVT.
Tegnell about WHO: It’s a misinterpretation

Sweden’s strategy of not testing has come back to haunt him. Now that the real rate of infections is becoming apparent, he pretends that it is just a question of increased testing making it seem as if the rate of infections is on the rise. He is just as big a jerk as Trump.

Quote:
"In several countries across Europe, this risk has now become a reality - 30 countries have seen increases in new cumulative cases over the past two weeks.
"In 11 of these countries, accelerated transmission has led to very significant resurgence that if left unchecked will push health systems to the brink once again."
The 11 countries and territories were later identified by the WHO as Armenia, Sweden, Moldova, North Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kyrgyzstan, Ukraine and Kosovo.
Dr Kluge said countries such as Poland, Germany, Spain and Israel had responded quickly to dangerous outbreaks associated with schools, coal mines, and food production settings, and brought them under control through rapid interventions.
Coronavirus: 'Very significant' resurgences in Europe alarm WHO (BBC, June 25, 2020)
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx

Last edited by dann; 26th June 2020 at 12:17 AM.
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Old 26th June 2020, 02:17 AM   #1238
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
Translation:
Sweden is one of 11 European countries that the WHO has made a particular warning for about the spread of infections.
- That is a complete misinterpretation of the data, unfortunately, says national epidemiologist Anders Tegnell to SVT.
Tegnell about WHO: It’s a misinterpretation

Sweden’s strategy of not testing has come back to haunt him. Now that the real rate of infections is becoming apparent, he pretends that it is just a question of increased testing making it seem as if the rate of infections is on the rise. He is just as big a jerk as Trump.
I've made a similar point to what follows in the "Coronavirus and Politics" thread.

It seems to me that countries which are faring comparatively badly w.r.t. Coronavirus (Sweden, US, UK, Brazil) would rather claim that there are faults in the counts and/or that the numbers aren't comparable instead of looking at their response to Coronavirus and considering changes to their response which is clearly isn't working
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Old 26th June 2020, 02:32 AM   #1239
dann
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- Honey, that makeup isn't good for you. It makes you break out in a rash.
- That's OK. I'll just cover it up with some more makeup.
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx

Last edited by dann; 26th June 2020 at 02:33 AM.
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Old 26th June 2020, 06:10 AM   #1240
dann
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Swedish minister uses another trick from Trump's playbook

Quote:
Den svenske udenrigsminister, Ann Linde, er ikke imponeret af danske turisters opførsel.
Hun får "rigtig mange mails" om danskere, der bryder Sveriges corona-retningslinjer. Det kunne Dagens Nyheter fortælle i sidste uge.
- Vi får rigtig mange mails om, at der kommer folk fra Danmark, som ikke respekterer den sociale distance og flytter borde sammen på restauranter og alt muligt, sagde hun.
Interviewet blev også bragt i Politiken.
I virkeligheden har udenrigsministeren dog kun modtaget én mail om de danske turisters opførsel i Sverige.
Kun én svensker havde klaget, da svensk minister skældte danske turister ud. Sveriges udenrigsminister hævdede, at hun havde fået "rigtig mange mails" om danskeres opførsel. (DR.dk, June 26)
Translation:
Swedish minister of foreign affairs, Ann Linde, is not impressed by the behaviour of Danish tourists.
She gets ”very many emails” about Danes who break Sweden’s coronavirus guidelines. Dagens Nyheter told its readers about this last week.
- We get very many emails about people coming from Denmark who don’t respect social distancing and move tables together at restaurants and things like that, she said.
The interview was also published in (the Danish newpaper) Politiken.
But the minster of foreign affairs only received one email about the behavior of Danish tourists in Sweden.
Only one Swede had complained when Swedish minister claimed that the had received ”very many emails” about the behaviour of Danes

Ann Linde is the minister who was interviewed by Deutsche Welle last week:
Sweden’s FM Linde: 'We managed to flatten the curve' (Deutsche Welle, June 17, 2020)

Quote:
Ann Linde har også modtaget en mail fra en dansker, der er bosiddende i Helsingborg:
"Hej Ann. Jeg holder helt med det danske synspunkt om ikke at tillade svenskere at rejse ind i Danmark. Sverige har helt tabt kampen mod Covid-19," skriver danskeren i sin mail.
Translation:
Ann Linde also received an email from a Dane living in Helsingborg:
"Hi Ann. I completely agree with the Danish point of view about not letting Swedes travel to Denmark. Sweden has totally lost the battle against Covid-19, the Dane writes in his email.
__________________
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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