Sweden's liberal pandemic strategy questioned as Stockholm death toll mounts

[Rolfe]

Originally Posted by The Don

I've made a similar point to what follows in the "Coronavirus and Politics" thread.

It seems to me that countries which are faring comparatively badly w.r.t. Coronavirus (Sweden, US, UK, Brazil) would rather claim that there are faults in the counts and/or that the numbers aren't comparable instead of looking at their response to Coronavirus and considering changes to their response which is clearly isn't working

While at the beginning there was a more-or-less pan-UK approach to handling coronavirus (let's hear it for Ceredigion, the honourable exception) that is no longer the case. Scotland fared very badly at the beginning thanks to the strategy (which was frankly appeasement of English nationalism, trying to avoid calumny being thrown at Scotland for daring to do anything different). Our death toll is a shocker (4,129 confirmed or suspected coronavirus deaths out of a population of 5.45 million).

However our strategy coming out of lockdown has been different. Yes we've taken political flak for it, for "lagging behind England" for "playing catch-up", we've had people refusing to follow Scottish legislation and vowing loyalty only to Boris, but by and large it has been a success. The stats comparisons between Scotland and England are now absolutely enormous.

Scotland is sitting on a 7-day average of about 16 new cases per day. This is in the "beating coronavirus" category according to the endcoronavirus.org web site. Our excess deaths are firmly back down to normal variation. No new deaths reported today, and the 7-day average of new deaths is down to 1.7 per day.

Scotland not far away from eliminating coronavirus

We're not there yet but the diference is stark. The Scottish government has become more and more committed to elimination of the virus. We declined to touch that bloody useless app or get involved with SERCO-centralised contact tracing. We're beefing up the experienced local authority contact tracing teams and liaising with local GP practices to get on top of local clusters. We've been coming out of lockdown about a fortnight behind England with the result that viral prevalence is a lot lower by the time things are permitted that might increase the risk.

So can we please stop talking about "the UK" in this context. The UK has four different countries doing their own thing and only one of them is currently faring badly. England. Let's call it as it is.

[dann]

Do you know anything about the strategies of Wales and Northern Ireland?
Ireland has been climbing the list of deaths per million and will probably overtake the Netherlands before long.

[dann]

Originally Posted by dann

Translation:
Sweden is one of 11 European countries that the WHO has made a particular warning for about the spread of infections.
- That is a complete misinterpretation of the data, unfortunately, says national epidemiologist Anders Tegnell to SVT.
Tegnell about WHO: It’s a misinterpretation

Sweden’s strategy of not testing has come back to haunt him. Now that the real rate of infections is becoming apparent, he pretends that it is just a question of increased testing making it seem as if the rate of infections is on the rise. He is just as big a jerk as Trump.

Quote:

WHO: ”Stabil nivå”
I ett mejl till SVT Nyheter skriver organisationen att det alltjämt pågår en allmän smittspridning i Sverige och att antalet nya bekräftade fall per 100 000 invånare fortsatt är relativt högt. Däremot ser man ingen ökad smittspridning.
”Regeringen har utökat testningen och detta reflekteras i antalet nya rapporterade fall sedan i början av juni. Däremot är det viktigt att notera att andelen positiva testresultat bland de som testas ligger på en stabil nivå, runt 12 till 13 procent”, skriver WHO.
Sverige kvar på risklistan
Organisationen understryker även att det finns flera positiva trender i Sverige, bland annat att antalet allvarliga coronafall fortsätter att minska och att antalet inlagda på intensivvårdsavdelningar blir färre.
Men trots att WHO alltså nu backar gällande smittspridningen, så listas Sverige alltjämt som ett av elva riskländer på organisationens hemsida.
WHO backar: Smittspridningen i Sverige på stabil nivå (SVT.se, June 26, 2020)

Translation:
WHO: “Stable level”
In an email to SVT News, the organization writes that there is still a general spread of infection in Sweden, and that the number of new confirmed cases per 100,000 inhabitants is relatively high. But they don’t see any increased spreading.
“The government has increased testing and this is reflected in the number of new reported cases since early June. But it is important to notice that the percentage of positive tests among people being tested is at a stable level, about 12 to 13 percent,” writes WHO.
Sweden is still on the risk list
The organization even emphasizes that there are several positive trends in Sweden, among others that the number of serious corona cases continues to drop and that the number of hospitalized patients is decreasing.
But in spite of WHO now backing down as far as the spread of the virus is concerned, Sweden is still listed as one of eleven risk countries on the organization’s homepage.
WHO backs down: The spread of infection in Sweden is at a a stable level

When even the media are focussed on making Sweden look good, I wouldn’t be surprised if most Swedish readers of this article don’t notice what the WHO is actually saying! That Sweden's high (!) rate of infections is at a stable (I) level is something that should make Swedes concerned! There is absolutely no reason to wonder why Sweden is still on the list of high-risk countries.

[Rolfe]

Better go into the Politics thread and explain that to Arcade. (I agree with you.)

The WHO is notoriously susceptible to political pressure. A % positivity rate of 12-13% is not good at all and suggests that a lot of cases are being missed. (Scotland's 7-day average is now down to 0.5%. Seventeen new cases in 5,871 people tested yesterday, 0.3% on the day.) If you have a stable level of infection when you only have 17 cases a day and the amount of testing you're doing suggests you're not missing much, you're not in too much trouble. If you have a stable level of infection when you have more than 1,000 recorded new cases a day and the amount of testing you're doing suggests you're missing quite a lot, with all due respect I think you're in a dangerous place.

[Rolfe]

Originally Posted by dann

Do you know anything about the strategies of Wales and Northern Ireland?
Ireland has been climbing the list of deaths per million and will probably overtake the Netherlands before long.

I don't really have much detail. One Welsh council distinguished itself by keeping contact tracing going into and through lockdown and has had very few deaths indeed. But recently there has been a big cluster on the Isle of Anglesey in a meat processing plant, when the isle had been at a very low level of infection. So that has pushed their stats into a bad place. I don't believe anywhere in Wales is using the English contact tracing system which is a really bad, centralised abomination.

I realise Ireland hasn't been good but it's been better than NI (and its worst areas have been those that border on NI), and NI itself has been the best of the countries in the UK. Everything's relative.

ETA: Ireland is in the "winning" category on the endcoronavirus.org site, with only seven new cases/day now. I don't see that it has an ongoing problem. Countries with an appalling death toll in April and May [*waves*] are getting on top of it now and shouldn't be judged on their historic death toll as regards their current state of play.

[dann]

Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, June 26, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 523 (5,280) 303 171
USA: 385 (127,361) 42,777* 15,749 *Still incoming
Denmark: 104 (604) 39 11
Finland: 59 (328) 19 1
Norway: 46 (249) 40 4
Iceland: 29 (10) 2 0 Iceland has 9 active cases.

I assume that Iceland's new cases are all travellers coming to Iceland from abroad, but I'm still not sure. Iceland reopened its borders on June 15. (Iceland Monitor, June 10, 2020)
"Although the tests are currently free, a $112 charge will be implemented from July 1."

Denmark is now #11 on the list of countries that test the most. I assume that Denmark will soon overtake Iceland. When you do as well as they have done in Iceland, you no longer need to test much.

[dann]

It seems as if the Swedish government has finally started telling Tegnell and the Public Health Agency what's to be done:

Quote:

Efter 115 dagar i rampljuset tar Anders Tegnell semester. Hyllad och kritiserad för den svenska linje som byggt på tillit till invånarna och få hårda regler.
Nu har Folkhälsomyndigheten fått ett nytt uppdrag från regeringen när det gäller smittspårning.
– Vi ska börja arbeta mer aktivt igen för att hitta alla kontakter som en smittad person kan ha haft, säger Anders Tegnell i en stor intervju med DN.
Anders Tegnell: Ländernas öppnande ett gigantisk experiment (DagensNyheter.se, June 26, 2020)

Translate:
Efter 115 days in the spotlight, Anders Tegnell takes a holiday. Praised and criticized for the Swedish strategy based on confidence in the citizens and very few strict rules.
Now the Public Health Agency got a new assignment from the government about tracing of infections.
- We have to start working more actively again to find all the contacts that an infected person may have had, says Anders Tegnell in a big interview with Dagens Nyheter
Anders Tegnell: The reopening of the countries is a huge experiment

But they still have problems with testing:

Stora skillnader i hur coronatester erbjuds över landet – Gratis i Stockholm – Svårt att testa sig överhuvudtaget i en del regioner (SVT.se, June 26, 2020)
Big differences in how corona tests are supplied in different parts of the country – Free in Stockholm – Difficult to get tested at all in some regions

[Rolfe]

Scotland had no new deaths reported today. That's two "weekdays" in a row with none (bearing in mind that today's report is yesterday's figures). We're now into a weekend where numbers are usually low and I would expect no more reported tomorrow or Monday which would give us four days in a row with no deaths. Our rolling 7-day average is now only 1.4 deaths per day.

We had 15 new cases today which brings the rolling 7-day average down to 14.7 cases per day. We're still testing 200 people to find one positive.

I've just seen this document from the Scottish government. Their modellers seem to think that in reality we have somewhere between 65 and 180 new cases per day, but there is no indication given of how they are working that out. It's not dissimilar to some of the numbers I was speculating about earlier in the thread but these didn't ring true to me and I came to the conclusion that basing these estimates on death rates was invalid during the exit tail from the epidemic due to the number of people who take significantly longer than three weeks to die of this. I don't know if the government modellers are using that logic or not. My gut feeling is that it's not so many as this, although obviously the reality is going to be more than 15.

These same people also estimate that there are between 900 and 2,200 infectious people in Scotland. Again I don't know how they're doing this but it's probably an extrapolation from their ideas about how many new cases there really are per day. The actual figure for active cases based on known positive tests is 556.

My gut feeling is that these models are too pessimistic, however I don't know enough about how they're derived. The main thing is that the metrics keep coming down and that has to be encouraging. They're not coming down in England, they're a lot higher, and yet England is opening pubs in a week's time. I try not to be worried about the border but it is a concern.

If there isn't a case in my own region tomorrow, this will be our first week without a new reported case. As well as the three island regions that haven't had a case for ages, we also have four mainland regions that haven't had a case for at least three weeks. (That's health board regions, which are smaller than local government regions, so it's seven out of 32 in fact.)

[dann]

Quote:

Sex patienter har isolerats efter att en svensk sjuksköterska på Helgelandsjukhuset i Norge konstaterats smittad av coronaviruset.
Även en svensk läkare har konstaterats smittad efter att ha undantagits karantänsreglerna.
Svensk vårdpersonal misstänks ha smittat norska patienter (Aftonbladet.se, June 27, 2020)

Translation:
Six patients were isolated after a Swedish hospital nurse at the Helgeland Hospital in Norway was tested positive for coronavirus.
A Swedish doctor has also been tested positive after he had been exempted from the quarantine rules.
Swedish health-care staff suspected of having infected Norwegian patients

Quote:

Antalet upptäckta coronafall fortsätter att öka i Sverige med tiotals dödsfall varje dag.
Nu höjer norska experter ett varningens finger mot grannlandet som de menar borde ändra sin strategi.
– Jag tycker synd om Sverige. Landet har haft en enorm tilltro till sin statsepidemiolog, säger smittskyddsläkaren Bjørg Marit Andersen till norska Dagbladet.
Norska experternas råd til Sverige: Byt strategi (Aftonbladet.se, June 27, 2020)

Translation:
The number of registered corona cases continues to increase in Sweden with two-figure death toll every day.
Now Norwegian experts are raising a finger of warning against the neighboring country, which should change its strategy, in their opinion.
- I feel sorry for Sweden. The country has had a huge confidence in its national epidemiologist, says the specialist in protection from infectious diseases Bjørg Marit Andersen to the Norwegian (newspaper) Dagbladet.
Norwegian experts’ advice for Sweden: Change strategies

There was a lot of confusion at the Danish border today, when Swedes tried to get into Denmark. Only Swedes from the region Västerbotten (which is very far from the Danish border) were allowed in because their rate of infection is supposed to be lower than the rest of Sweden. Swedes from Scania, Halland and Blekinge can only get in if they have a negative coronavirus test:

Quote:

Smitten er på så lavt et niveau i Västerbotten, at svenskere fra den region må rejse ind. Personer fra Skåne, Halland og Blekinge må rejse ind, selvom de regioner stadig er karantænezoner. De behøver heller ikke have booket et bestemt antal overnatninger.
Men det går ikke bare at krydse grænsen:
- Ikke uden en test. Så længe de tre regioner er at betragte som et karantæneområde, hvor smittetrykket er for højt, forudsætter det, at de har en coronatest, der er negativ. Medmindre de indrejser med et anerkendelsesværdigt formål, siger Peter Ekebjærg fra Rigspolitiet
(DR.dk, June 27, 2020)

Translation:
The rate of infection is at a level in Västerbotten that is so low that Swedes from that region are allowed to go to Denmark. People from Scania, Halland and Blekinge are allowed to go to Denmark even though the regions are still quarantine zones. They also don’t need to have reserved accommodation for a certain number of nights.
But they can’t simply cross the border:
- Not without a test. As long as the three regions are considered to be quarantine areas with a high R₀, it requires a negative corona test. Unless they enter the country with a merited/worthy purpose, says Peter Ekebjærg from the State Police.
The police make it clear after much confusion: The Swedes have to bring a negative coronavirus test

[dann]

Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, June 27, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 523 (5,280) 303 171 Sweden’s numbers from Friday; no new numbers till Monday.
USA: 387 (128,099) 36,799* 15,707 *Still incoming.
Denmark: 104 (604) 0 11
Finland: 59 (328) 7 1
Norway: 46 (249) 0 4
Iceland: 29 (10) 4 0 Iceland now has 12 active cases.

[Rolfe]

Is Iceland regretting opening its border yet?

[dann]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

Is Iceland regretting opening its border yet?

If I assume correctly when I think that the new cases are people coming to Iceland from the rest of the world, then I don't think that they are regretting it:

Quote:

As of June 15, travellers to Iceland have the option to be tested for COVID-19 upon entry at Keflavík Airport (or whatever their point of entry) or undergo a 14-day quarantine. This regulation applies to both residents and visitors to the country.
What’s the Status of COVID-19 in Iceland? (Iceland Review, June 24, 2020)

But I haven't been able to confirm it.

[Vixen]

Originally Posted by dann

Interesting graph comparing Sweden, the UK, Belgium, Denmark and Norway.

Quote:

:
Many Swedes were initially reassured that its response to the crisis had been led by healthcare experts, not politicians, fuelling a belief that it acted rationally as other countries responded emotionally.
(…)
But Elisabet Lann, the Gothenburg city councillor responsible for elderly care and a member of the opposition Christian Democrats who is sceptical about the government strategy, says 200 years of peace and neutrality have left Sweden slow to react. The response has been cloaked in a self-image of a country that believes it behaves calmly while others are impetuous. “We don’t like to be irrational because of feelings, or be frightened to make irrational moves,” she says. “We look at other countries as more impulsive.”
(…)
“All of us who work with this, every day and night, we think, ‘Was this right or wrong?’” says Mr (Leif) Dotevall. “Some days we think we were right and other days not at all. Finally, we may be surprised to see the whole picture.”
Coronavirus: Sweden starts to debate its public health experiment (Financial Times, June 22, 2020)

<SNORT> Be that as it may, it has never had to get involved in wars with Russia or Germany. This annoys me. However, at least Finland's left wing/centre/green/swedish party were prepared - it still had emergency stocks ever since the 1944 war end and knew to act with alacrity, albeit not until 18 March 2020, when a State of Emergency Law was passed - and the SDP prime minister Sanna Marin acted with a swiftness reminiscent of Jacinda (last name?) in New Zealand. ISTM that our dear friends in Sweden are now in a state of rationalisation. They still cannot quite accept that their superior plan was a disaster.

[Samson]

One of our guys talks UK and Sweden in this article

He also hit out at Sweden, which lies at the opposite end of the spectrum to New Zealand with very loose coronavirus restrictions.
"Sweden based their approach on three big assumptions," he said.
"First the idea the virus would sweep neatly through, creating herd immunity. Second was that the economy would be better off, and that has not been the case. And third, that you could protect the vulnerable [without a lockdown]. You can, but you have to work incredibly hard, and once the virus gets into aged care facilities it is devastating, as it has been in Sweden and the UK."

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/new...ectid=12343588

[dann]

I have shared your quotation with the Swedish skeptics.
You are probably aware that what New Zealand has accomplished goes against all the laws of nature, according to Tegnell.

I can see that New Zealand has 20 active cases (Worldometers), which is considerably better than Iceland, considering the sizes of the populations in the two countries.
Do you know if they are all people placed in quarantine when entering the country?

[Samson]

Originally Posted by dann

I have shared your quotation with the Swedish skeptics.
You are probably aware that what New Zealand has accomplished goes against all the laws of nature, according to Tegnell.

I can see that New Zealand has 20 active cases (Worldometers), which is considerably better than Iceland, considering the sizes of the populations in the two countries.
Do you know if they are all people placed in quarantine when entering the country?

Yes they are, straight from plane to quarantine and tightening all the time. Eradication should be the aim of all communities, it really is possible, and hopefully for Rolfe Scotland will get there. We have no unexplained cases in several weeks, with 5 to 10,000 tests a day.

[dann]

Originally Posted by Vixen

<SNORT> Be that as it may, it has never had to get involved in wars with Russia or Germany. This annoys me.

Please don't try to persuade Putin or Merkel to do something about it!

Quote:

However, at least Finland's left wing/centre/green/swedish party were prepared - it still had emergency stocks ever since the 1944 war end and knew to act with alacrity, albeit not until 18 March 2020, when a State of Emergency Law was passed - and the SDP prime minister Sanna Marin acted with a swiftness reminiscent of Jacinda (last name?) Ardern in New Zealand.

Wars and other disasters seem to help nations remain alert and prepared for the worst. Almost all Danish bunkers were torn down after the Cold War ended.
We're gonna look really stupid when the comet hits us!

Quote:

ISTM that our dear friends in Sweden are now in a state of rationalisation. They still cannot quite accept that their superior plan was a disaster.

It surprises me that Tegnell has been left in charge. Considering the very vested interest he has in making testing, tracing and quarantining a success and thus proving the Swedish strategy utterly wrong. It might have been better to have somebody else take over. Björn Olsen, for instance.

[Samson]

Originally Posted by dann

What was the point of not testing them before letting them leave?

Sorry missed this question at the time. It was a failure by those administering the policy, and a failure by the director general of health, Bloomfield, to check they were testing as specified.
51 of 55 leaving quarantine early for compassionate grounds were not tested!
Fortunately two British women were released early then tested positive and this blew the whole fiasco wide open.
The cornerstone policy was 14 days then testing day 3 and day 12 before release.
What obviously happened was the logistics of taking testers to the people was too hard and not planned for. Usually it is people go to the testers.
I realise none of that makes sense, but it is what happened and everyone is in a state of disbelief.

[Rolfe]

Jacinda Ardern did her nut and put the army in charge after that happened as I understand.

[Samson]

Yes, we have heard hardly anything from her since, it has closed the polling gap by 18 points with an election round the corner.

[dann]

Originally Posted by Samson

Sorry missed this question at the time. It was a failure by those administering the policy, and a failure by the director general of health, Bloomfield, to check they were testing as specified.
51 of 55 leaving quarantine early for compassionate grounds were not tested!
Fortunately two British women were released early then tested positive and this blew the whole fiasco wide open.
The cornerstone policy was 14 days then testing day 3 and day 12 before release.
What obviously happened was the logistics of taking testers to the people was too hard and not planned for. Usually it is people go to the testers.
I realise none of that makes sense, but it is what happened and everyone is in a state of disbelief.

Not unlike the confusion at the Danish-Swedish border yesterday morning when Swedes were let into the country without negative virus tests. I hope that not too many of them were asymptomatic carriers.

[Rolfe]

Scotland's headline figures for today. No new deaths and only eight new positive cases. That's three days on the trot with no deaths, and we seem set to make it four because the last time we had a death reported on a Monday (Sunday-registered deaths of course) was 1st May and even then it was only one.

Seven-day averages are now, deaths 1.4 per day and new cases 12.1 per day.

This feels good. The numbers have been going down inexorably and now sit very low. Obviously we won't be catching every case, and there are always some suspected covid deaths that don't make it to the headline figures, but historically these have been no more than 40% of the total so even that would only bring the death rate to 2.3 per day now.

Someone on Twitter figured out where the SG modelling figures that suggest much higher numbers of actual infections come from. They appear to be applying their estimate of the reproduction number in a way that gives them these figures. But their R numbers are themselves only estimates and there's a lot of assuming going on. Yes there will be people who don't come forward. Yes there will be asymptomatic infections. Yes there will be false negatives. (But I don't believe some of the alleged asymptomatic infection rates, they're really implausible, and I don't believe some of the alleged false negative rates either, PCR tests usually have very high sensitivity.) But the idea that we "really" have 65-180 new cases a day and we're only picking up 12 of these doesn't make sense on a whole heap of levels.

We're opening up a bit now. One of the ladies at (Zoom) church this morning had had a haircut. Non-essential shops will soon be open and some indoor visiting will be allowed. This last is the bit that worries me. I'd have hoped to get to a day in July when no new infections were reported, but with the opening up (and tourists allowed) that's probably unrealistic. But we've got to make a move some time, so fingers crossed and see how it goes.

Me, I'm continuing to keep my head down. I can talk to people in the street and in their gardens and on the phone and on Zoom. I can have a restaurant meal as a takeaway. I can get fresh produce from the hotel without going indoors. My hair is now long enough that I can catch it back with an elastic band. If they would tell us where the active hotspots are at postcode level rather than regional level and I could see we'd been virus-free for some weeks (which I suspect may be the case) I'd reconsider, but they won't. So here I am.

[Rolfe]

It seems I was wrong about the indoor visiting. We're certainly dancing now, with the level of re-opening that starts tomorrow, but no going into anyone else's house unless it's related to the "extended groups" that were introduced a couple of weeks ago where a single person (plus any children they have) is allowed to attach themselves to one other household in an exclusive relationship to alleviate loneliness and stress.

Here are the things that are changing. https://twitter.com/scotgov/status/1277300862394806280

None of this sounds too scary to me. Yes shops and factories are re-opening and how safe that is depends on the particular circumstances, but no indoor entertainment or leisure venues at all and no outdoor spaces of pubs or restaurants (yet, though I imagine that will be part of the next stage if all goes well with this new phase).

They haven't made masks compulsory in shops yet and I think they should. Some people are wearing them but it needs to be nearly everybody.

[Rolfe]

And here is Scotland's first real test of reopening.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53210774

Apparently people were queueing from 5.30 am to get into Primark. I tell you, it's a horrible day. There is quite a high wind and the rain is battering down. And thank goodness frankly. But that isn't stopping some idiots.

I'm thinking tomorrow is the day to make a planned supermarket run. Get in before any resurgence in virus activity and go to ground for another few weeks. A lamp I left for repair in the electrical shop a couple of weeks ago is now ready so I think I'll venture out, pick that up, get more cat food to add to the enormous stack I already have which will see me through Brexit too, some other pet supplies, and just basically top up the store-room.

I hope we'll get away with this but it's a worry. Yesterday saw a new case in the Highlands after weeks of no new cases. Could be nothing, as the one in Orkney was a few weeks ago, could be an introduction due to tourism. Something also seems to be happening in Clackmannanshire. That had also been clear for a few weeks, then suddenly three consecutive days with new cases, four in all. It's not so bad if the contact tracing teams are on these cases fast and get them quarantined, but there's still evidence of virus in virtually all the mainland counties, albeit at a low level in over half of them. Last week was my own region's first week with no new cases and hopefully no new deaths either although the disaggregated death figures don't appear until Wednesday.

If we do end up putting some border controls in place to keep out tourists from outwith Scotland I might consider a week or two in the Highlands or even elsewhere in the Borders. However if tourists are allowed in from higher-prevalence areas I'll stay away.

[Rolfe]

Sweden didn’t impose a lockdown, but its economy is just as bad as its neighbors

[Rolfe]

Scotland's statistics are in the "too good to be true" bracket, but I just don't know where the catch is. As expected no further deaths today (because Monday) but also only five new cases. This time the five new cases number isn't an illusion as it was on Thursday. Only four affected health board regions today, although the oddity is East Ayrshire with two cases, having been one of the ones that was just grumbling along with the odd case or two when other areas were much more affected. No negative numbers buggering things up.

I'm increasingly convinced something is wrong with the modelling. The modellers believe we had a median of 110 (65-180) new cases last Friday and will have 80 (45-130) this Friday. So they're estimating about roughly 90 today, say between 50 and 160. Where are they? All asymptomatic or refusing to go for testing? And what's more day after day the people they infect are also mainly asymptomatic or refusing to go for testing?

I note the modelling is based on new infections declining by 30% every week. If we look at the actual testing data the confirmed new positives have been declining by an average of 35% per week, although with a lot of variation. Maybe the R value is lower than they estimate, but also their starting estimate for mid-May seems very high. Their mid-point estimate is 910 infections on 15th May but we actually reported only 24 new positive cases. That's implying that we missed over 97% of infections. I suppose it's actually getting better as they're now implying we're only missing about 85%!

I have no idea where these numbers are coming from and in particular I don't know if it's accepted internationally that even if you're testing 300 people to find one positive, you're still only getting 15% of the cases. My brain hurts.

The two things I'd dearly like to know now are these. First, the ten people who died last week, when did they actually get sick, and what was the date of their probable infective contact (if known). Second, how many of the new cases are linked to already-identified clusters and how many are popping up out of the blue. Nobody's telling us and nobody's even acting like these are important things that would inform our interpretation of the numbers. But I think they're crucial.

[dann]

Originally Posted by Vixen

However, at least Finland's left wing/centre/green/swedish party were prepared - it still had emergency stocks ever since the 1944 war end and knew to act with alacrity, albeit not until 18 March 2020, when a State of Emergency Law was passed - and the SDP prime minister Sanna Marin acted with a swiftness reminiscent of Jacinda (last name?) in New Zealand.

Maria Wetterstrand agrees with you:
Tidigare språkröret: Finland var bättre förberedda för krisen (Expressen.se, June 29, 2020)
Former spokesperson: Finland was better prepared for the crisis

[dann]

1.500 unge samles til festuge på campingplads: Virologer er bekymrede (BT, June 29, 2020) – Only 90 km from Hjørring, the site of a recent outbreak
1,500 young people gathered for festival at a camping site: Virologists are worried

Nyt om mørketallet: Næsten ingen danskere har været smittet med corona (BT, June 29, 2020)
News about the hidden numbers: Almost no Danes were infected with corona - only 1,2 percent (i.e. between 0,7 and 1,7 percent) of the 2,427 healthy Danes in the survey had antibodies, between 40,000 and 98,000 Danes. I wouldn’t call that ‘almost no Danes’.

Björn Olsens kritik mot Stefan Löfven: ”Det där borde han ta tag i” (Expressen.se, June 29, 2020)
Björn Olsen’s criticism of Stefan Löfven: “He should deal with this”

Hoppas verkligen de tänker till en pikosekund (Expressen.se, June 28, 2020) six Somalis among the first 12
Björn Olsen: I really hope that they will consider this for a picosecond – Sweden has been hiding statistics about the hardest hit areas and segments of the population; for instance that six Somalis were among the first 12 deaths in Sweden.

Extrema trängseln på bussen mitt under pandemin (Expressen.se, June 29, 2020)
Crowding on the bus in the middle of the pandemic See the video!

Quote:

Danskar har med ”stor sannolikhet” spridit coronasmitta till Sverige.
Det visar forskare vid Köpenhamns universitet i en ny studie.
– Vi kan se att den typ av mutation som är mycket utbredd i Danmark dyker upp i Sverige, säger professorn Matthias Christandl, till Ekstrabladet.
Resultatet av studien, som ännu inte är vetenskapligt bevisad, visar bland annat att coronaviruset kom till Danmark via skidorten Ischgl i Österrike.
Samtidigt har danskarna i sin tur med stor sannolikhet fört viruset vidare till Island, Sverige och Lettland, menar professorn Matthias Christandl.
Studie: Danskar förde smittan till Sverige (Aftonbladet.se, June 29, 2020)

Translation:
With "high probability", Danes spread coronavirus to Sweden.
Researchers at the University of Copenhagen show this in a new study.
-We can see that the kind of mutation that is very widespread in Denmark appears in Sweden, says professor Matthias Christandi to Ekstra Bladet.
The results of the study, which haven’t yet been scientifically proved, show among other things that the coronavirus came to Denmark via the skiing area Ischl in Austria.
With high probability, Danes took the virus to Iceland, Sweden and Latvia at the same time, professor Matthias Christandl thinks.
Study: Danes brought the contagion to Sweden

Efter 115 dagar i rampljuset tar Anders Tegnell semester. ”Det är för svårt med mundskydd i samhället” (DagensNyheter.se, June 27, 2020)
After 115 days in the spotlight, Anders Tegnell takes a holiday: “Facemasks are too difficult in society.” – Notice that he takes his holiday when the Public Health Agency is leaving his strategy behind and beginning to test, trace and isolate/quarantine. Coincidence?!

Danmark tillåter besök på äldreboenden igen (SVT.se, June 29, 2020 – 17:28)
Denmark allows visits to elderly-care homes again So far, relatives had to meet their elderly relatives at nursing home outside.

Quote:

Det var i början av april som smittan tog sig in på delar av boendet. Coronaviruset spred sig snabbt och i slutet av maj hade 25 av 65 boende avlidit. Det är inte säkerställt att alla dog i covid-19, men samma period året innan avled sex personer.
Många brister på boende i Eskilstuna under coronautbrottet: ”Det var som en skräckfilm” (SVT.se, June 29, 2020)

Translation:
In early April, the infection snuck into parts of the nursing home. The coronavirus spread fast, and by the end of May 25 of 65 residents had died. It is not certain that they all died from Covid-19, but in the same period the year before six residents died.
Many shortcomings at nursing home in Eskilstuna during the corona outbreak: “It was like a horror movie”

Norges statsminister advarer efter vild genåbningsweekend (DR.dk, June 29, 2020)
Norway’s prime minister wars after wild reopening weekend - It's described as "more frantic that New Year's Eve

Tusentals svenskar kan lida av posttraumatisk stress efter covid-19 (DagensNyheter.se, June 28, 2020)
Thousands of Swedes may suffer from posttraumatic stress after Covid-19

munskydd till allmänheten (SVT.se, June 28, 2020 – 8:26)
Facemasks for ordinary use - I get the impression that this is another one of those points where Sweden's arrogant 'experts' are more interested in keeping up appearances and denying all new evidence than in learning what might help their compatriots.

Utländska medier får inte nog av vår strategi (SVT.se, June 29, 2020 – 8:09)
Foreign media don’t hear enough about our strategy

Viruset kan överbelasta vården i turistorter (SVT.se, June 29, 2020 – 5:04)
The virus may overload the health-care system in tourist areas

Quote:

Semestrar flyttas och avbryts, patienter flygs med militärhelikopter till andra sjukhus och personal säger upp sig. IVA-sköterskor i Region Jönköping beskriver en krissituation.
– Vi är livegna just nu, säger Eva Berglund.
Larmet från sjukvården: ”Man lurar invånerna” (SvenskaDagbladet.se, June 28, 2020)

Translation:
Holidays are moved and interrupted, patients are flown by military helicopters to other hospitals and staff quit their jobs. ICU nurses in Region Jönköping describe a condition of war.
- We are serfs right now, says Eva Berglund
Alarm from the health-care system: “They trick the residents”


I find this one from April interesting when you consider that Sweden is now # 7 on the list of countries with the highest death toll per million, right behind Italy at #6:

Quote:

En grupp forskare hävdade nyligen att Sverige skjuter mot Italiens höjder i antalet döda i corona.
Två av forskarna som undertecknat debattartikeln i DN anser nu att det var en olycklig formulering.
– Det var ett misstag och det var inte bra. Vi skulle ha jämfört med ett annat land i stället. Tyngdpunkten i artikeln var att beskriva att det finns asymtomatisk spridning och vad de innebär för äldrevården, säger Björn Olsen, professor i infektionssjukdomar vid Uppsala universitet.
Även Marcus Carlsson, docent på matematikcentrum vid Lunds universitet, tycker att delar av artikeln kunde ha gjorts annorlunda.
– Jämförelsen med Italien var olycklig. Det är bättre att hålla sig till att jämföra grannländerna, säger han.
Tegnell-kritiska forskare: Vi ville ha dialog inte ett skyttegravskrig (Aftonbladet.se, April 19, 2020)

Translation:
A group of researchers recently claimd that Sweden is headed towards Italy’s high number of corona deaths.
Two of the researchers who signed the debate article in Dagens Nyheter now think that it was an unfortunate way of putting it:
-It was a mistake, and it wasn’t good. We should have compared with another country instead. The main point of the article was to describe that asymptomatic spread is taking place and what that means for elderly care, says Björn Olsen, professor of infectious diseases at Uppsala University.
- The comparison with Italy was unfortunate. It is better to stick to comparisons with neighbouring countries, he says.
Researchers criticize Tegnell: We wanted a dialogue not a trench war

[dann]

Quote:

Quote:

Tycker er rapportering är underlig. När ni rapporterar nya smittade och döda för andra länder som ligger långt under Sverige per capita görs det i katastroftoner. Sen när de svenska siffrorna presenteras görs detta som torr fakta utan några vidare kommentarer eller åsikter.
Leif

Hej Leif. Jag ska framföra dina synpunkter till våra redaktörer.
SVT · Jonas Olsson
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/s...-coronaviruset (SVT.se, June 29, 2020 - 16:50)

Translation:
I think your reporting is strange. When you report about new cases and deaths in other countries whose per capita numbers are far lower than Sweden's, you do so using alarmist language. But the Swedish numbers are presented as dry facts with no comments or opinions.
Leif
Hi Leif. I will present your point of view to our editors.
SVT - Jonas Olsson

I tend to agree with Leif! SVT has been doing a disservice to the population of Sweden by pretending that Sweden's situation was more or less 'business as usual'. The real catastrophic conditions were mainly to be found abroad, not in Sweden. The Swedish politicians have probably appreciated this attitude, but it has also contributed to the lack of awareness of how grim this situation has been for vulnerable Swedes.
The recent quarrel between Anders Tegnell and WHO where Anders Tegnell was presented by almost all Swedish news media as victorious is one of the worst examples of sycophancy I have ever seen.

[Rolfe]

We had the same thing here with the BBC. When the worst of the epidemic was happening in Italy they were full-on apocalyptic about it (but not mentioning that the experts were saying that we would be Italy in two weeks). Then when our death toll rose to the levels that had been apocalyptic in Italy it was just a factual report and they stopped showing the graphs that compared other countries.

[dann]

And, of course, we also have Trump's attempts to make China responsible for his own mismanagement of the pandemic.
It is one of the many things I can't stand about nationalism.
I doubt that the complaint from one of its viewers is going to do much to change SVT's corona news, but it was worth a try. Good that somebody points it out.

[uke2se]

Got my test results. No antibodies.

[dann]

Could be a false negative, but as Rolfe pointed out, it's probably better to behave as if you have no antibodies anyway.
Did you need to know for a specific purpose? To visit old relatives, for instance? I can see that Sweden is opening up for visits to nursing homes if people have been tested positive for antibodies:
De med antikroppar kan träffa äldre (SVT.se, June 30, 2020 - 15:05)
People with antibodies can visit old people - and other risk groups.

[dann]

Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, June 30, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 528 (5,333) 198 144
USA: 390 (129,981) 32,747* 15,935 - *Still incoming.
Denmark: 104 (605) 17 10 - Like Sweden, Denmark also seems to report only on weekdays now
Finland: 59 (328) 5 0
Norway: 46 (250) 17 2
Iceland: 29 (10) 2 0 - Iceland has 13 active cases.

[uke2se]

Originally Posted by dann

Could be a false negative, but as Rolfe pointed out, it's probably better to behave as if you have no antibodies anyway.
Did you need to know for a specific purpose? To visit old relatives, for instance? I can see that Sweden is opening up for visits to nursing homes if people have been tested positive for antibodies:
De med antikroppar kan träffa äldre (SVT.se, June 30, 2020 - 15:05)
People with antibodies can visit old people - and other risk groups.

I was the test case for work. If I had antibodies, they would proceed with further testing.

As I didn't show any, and there have since been other cases of Covid19 at work, it's all academic.

[Rolfe]

We had another three deaths today, but my feeling is that we're approaching the end of the tail of people dying who were infected back while the epidemic was still raging. There's still going to be the odd one, but if we really didn't have many more new cases last week than the 85 reported we shouldn't be seeing more than the occasional fatality going forward.

Ten new cases reported, but something is not clear. Five of them were in Dumfries and Galloway. Two weeks ago 10 historical cases were added to the D&G total (on 19th June). Other than that they've only had a couple of isolated cases recorded (one last week). So we don't know if the five cases today were another historical data-dump, or if there is a small cluster somewhere.

On the basis of this the Guardian claimed on its front page that cases in D&G were spiking so fast that a local lockdown is imminent! I kid you not.

Current 7-day rolling figures: new cases 10.6 per day, new deaths 1.3 per day.
Hospitalised 450, 5 in intensive care. 483 active cases.

[dann]

Do the three deaths correspond to a similar drop in the number of people in ICUs?

[dann]

Originally Posted by uke2se

I was the test case for work. If I had antibodies, they would proceed with further testing.

As I didn't show any, and there have since been other cases of Covid19 at work, it's all academic.

You probably already saw this:

Quote:

Enligt Tomas Bergström, professor i klinisk mikrobiologi, är de labratorietester som finns i dag mycket tillförlitliga. Den som får ett positivt resultat för så kallade IgG-antikroppar har all anledning att lita på resultatet.
– Nu är de i närmaste perfekta och kan inte bli mycket bättre, säger han.
Experterna: Så ska du tolka ett positivt antikroppstest (SVT.se, June 30, 2020)

Translation:
According to Tomas Bergström, professor of clinical microbiology, the current lab tests are very reliable. When you get a positive result for socalled IgG antibodies, you have every reason to rely on the result.
- Now they are almost perfect and can’t get much better, he says.
The experts: This is how to interpret a positive antibody test

[Rolfe]

Originally Posted by dann

Do the three deaths correspond to a similar drop in the number of people in ICUs?

Not sure actually.

Today is very confusing. Eight new cases were announced at the briefing, but when you drill down into the local data you find this figure is composed of 24 new cases and then 18 cases (presumably historical samples retested) subtracted. No, me neither.

Also, although the headline death number was one, when they released the local death data for last week the suspected deaths were included as well as the confirmed deaths, making several regions look as if they'd had sudden increases in deaths when this clearly isn't the case.

One nice spot is that my own region has recorded its first-ever week with no new infections (actually credited with -1 new cases!) and at the same time its first week with no new deaths, despite the addition of the confirmed cases. We haven't had a new case for 12 days now, and before that the previous new case was 11 days previously. If the one that's been cancelled by the -1 entry was the most recent case, we haven't had a new case for three weeks!

D&G seems to be having a genuine new cluster. One case on Monday, five yesterday and another one today. I've no idea where this is but I'd hazard a guess at Dumfries itself as it's the biggest town in the area. It's not many cases so hopefully they're on it. One good aspect is it will shut up the council leader who was demanding faster re-opening for D&G because of its low virus prevalence before this happened.

The Highlands has had a new case again today, after one last week. Hopefully they're on it. That region had gone several weeks with nothing. After the flurry of 4 cases at the weekend in Clackmannanshire that has gone quiet again so maybe the isolation is working.

[dann]

Originally Posted by Rolfe

Also, although the headline death number was one, when they released the local death data for last week the suspected deaths were included as well as the confirmed deaths, making several regions look as if they'd had sudden increases in deaths when this clearly isn't the case.

I think they have started doing that all over the world - maybe in an attempt to make statistics easier to compare.

Quote:

... my own region has recorded its first-ever week with no new infections (actually credited with -1 new cases!) ...

False positive? Left the country?