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Tags Coronavirus , Sweden incidents , Sweden issues

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Old 6th October 2020, 12:41 PM   #2361
bruto
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Originally Posted by Tippit View Post
It’s almost like, if you had this deadly virus but you don’t test and everything else is more or less equal except for the insane responses from the media and everyone around you, it’s not really that deadly!

Imagine suffering from a “deadly” virus that requires testing to know you’ve contracted it! Deadly indeed.
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All those dead people just took it too seriously.
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Old 6th October 2020, 01:33 PM   #2362
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Originally Posted by bruto View Post
All those dead people just took it too seriously.
And what of the tens of millions that die globally each year from heart disease, stroke, and cancer? Perhaps we should stop the world for them. Fast food and sugar bans, anyone? Durrrrr, heart disease is not contagious!
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Old 6th October 2020, 01:45 PM   #2363
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Originally Posted by Tippit View Post
And what of the tens of millions that die globally each year from heart disease, stroke, and cancer? Perhaps we should stop the world for them. Fast food and sugar bans, anyone? Durrrrr, heart disease is not contagious!

Looks like around 30,000 people died of hunger today.
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Old 6th October 2020, 02:13 PM   #2364
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Originally Posted by Tippit View Post
And what of the tens of millions that die globally each year from heart disease, stroke, and cancer? Perhaps we should stop the world for them. Fast food and sugar bans, anyone? Durrrrr, heart disease is not contagious!
Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Looks like around 30,000 people died of hunger today.
Your point being?
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Old 6th October 2020, 02:20 PM   #2365
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Originally Posted by steenkh View Post
Your point being?

"Our" point, and I'm not using the "we" you people so love (edit: not talking on behalf of Tippit or Clutch Cargo or anvbody else), is obvious: The "measures" taken on the excuse of that "killer virus" are not for concerns of our health, but for political agenda reasons. And "we" can say this, after over half a year of this circus, with certainty.
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Old 6th October 2020, 08:50 PM   #2366
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LATEST UPDATE. according to WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19),
Data last updated: 2020/10/6, 3:07pm CEST

Newly reported cases in the last 24 hours:

U.S. 36,136
Australia 13
Sweden 0
Denmark 377
New Zealand 3

Sweden must have truly succeeded in “eliminating” the virus but poor New Zealand. It’s new cases in this category have more than doubled since yesterday’s tally. Naturally, the difference between 1 and 3 isn’t an earth-shattering increase but it does (again) dispel the fantasy claim that they have “eliminated” the virus more than once. I mean seriously, that “elimination” story will be the centre of jokes for a decade.

Political manipulation of the situation continues. It hasn’t yet reached the level we experienced during the “red scare” but once they (those who benefit) have accurately felt the pulse of the population they’ll be turning the screws and fine-tuning their skills. But you know, people are either conditioned to welcome being manipulated or are simply born to be lambs to the slaughter. The most curious thing is that whatever I’ve said about manipulation and fiddling of the statistics ….. some people (my antagonists) completely fail to see the message. They actually think I am scoffing at some of the statistics but praising some of the others! LOL. I say LOL. My message must be awfully complicated. I am thinking it’s simple. I am saying the statistics are being fiddled and juggled for the purpose of sublime, political advantage. How someone can find an inclination of favour in that straight-forward statement is beyond me. Lambs to the slaughter?
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Old 6th October 2020, 10:42 PM   #2367
dann
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Originally Posted by Tippit View Post
And what of the tens of millions that die globally each year from heart disease, stroke, and cancer?

Your questions would be interesting if you actually cared.

Quote:
Perhaps we should stop the world for them. Fast food and sugar bans, anyone? Durrrrr, heart disease is not contagious!

No need to stop the world for them. On the contrary. A bit of exercise would do most of those people good, before they get to the dying stage, but if the food industry hadn't been so enamoured of hydrogenated oils (trans fats) used in (not only!) fast food, many of those deaths from heart disease wouldn't have happened. Trans fats are well-known to be extremely unhealthy, they are used for no other reason than that they are a little more practical for the food industry, but they can be done away with no real difficulty and without any expenses for the tax payer. And yet it takes decades to get rid of them, and in many places in the USA, it hasn't happened yet:
Quote:
Denmark became the first country to introduce laws strictly regulating the sale of many foods containing trans fats in March 2003, a move that effectively bans partially hydrogenated oils. The limit is 2% of fats and oils destined for human consumption. This restriction is on the ingredientsrather than the final products. This regulatory approach has made Denmark the only country in which it is possible to eat "far less" than 1 g of industrially produced trans fats daily, even with a diet including prepared foods. It is hypothesized that the Danish government's efforts to decrease trans fat intake from 6 g to 1 g per day over 20 years is related to a 50% decrease in deaths from ischemic heart disease.
Trans fat regulations: Denmark (Wikipedia)
So you are almost right: Heart disease is not usually contagious, but it can be when it is caused by SARS-CoV-2: As evidence builds that COVID-19 can damage the heart, doctors are racing to understand it (ScienceMag, Sep. 15, 2020)
However, much more often heart disease is the result of capitalism. I guess your solution to the problem of heart (if you were actually interested in finding one) would be to abolish the FDA and medical research so the numbers would simply go away just like Trump's suggestion that Covid-19 would go away if only people weren't tested.

Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Looks like around 30,000 people died of hunger today.

And instead of trying to find out how those deaths can be stopped ...
Why are so many people in developing countries poor? (GegenStandpunkt)
The ”World Hunger Problem” – Good Reasons for Hunger (RuthlessCriticism/MSZ)
... you see it as a reason for not doing anything about the coronavirus, another mass killer.
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"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 6th October 2020, 10:54 PM   #2368
dann
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Originally Posted by Clutch Cargo View Post
Sweden must have truly succeeded in “eliminating” the virus ...

No, obviously not, but we already knew that.

Tuesday:
Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Oct. 6, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 582 (5,883) 1862* 23 *since Friday, according to SVT.se
Denmark: 114 (663*) 322 28 *Another 6 deaths!
Finland: 62 (346) 227 8
Norway: 51 (275) 180* 4 *Last night it was 65, so my suspicion that Norway updates its numbers on Worldometers more than once a day, seems to be true
Iceland: 29 (10) 101 4
Iceland has 747 active cases, Faroe Islands 23, New Zealand 43.
The Faroe Islands have 122 in quarantine, 2 hospitalized.
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 6th October 2020, 11:00 PM   #2369
dann
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Still much too high, and after weeks of this the death toll is rising as we knew it would, but at least it seems to be going in the right direction:

322 nye smittede, men kurven er knækket, siger sundhedsministeren (DR.dk, Oct. 6, 2020)
322 new cases, but we have broken the curve, the minister of health says

Kurven er knækket: Kontakttallet er faldet til 0,8 (TV2.dk, Oct. 6, 2020)
We have broken the curve: The R0 has dropped to 0,8
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 6th October 2020, 11:25 PM   #2370
dann
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
"Our" point, and I'm not using the "we" you people so love (edit: not talking on behalf of Tippit or Clutch Cargo or anvbody else), is obvious: The "measures" taken on the excuse of that "killer virus" are not for concerns of our health, but for political agenda reasons. And "we" can say this, after over half a year of this circus, with certainty.

The certainty you are talking about doesn't take months. When you make a decision about what you want to believe and do so independently of the facts of the matter, there is no need for your decision to change. But if you ever lose faith, i.e. if you become interested in actual critical thinking about the pandemic, I can recommend this series of articles:
Quote:

They are free-of-charge, for now.

The latest, Die Elende Sehnsucht nach 'Normalität', begins like this:
Quote:
Nicht wenige leiden darunter, dass sie durch die staatliche Seuchenpolitik arbeitslos oder auf Kurzarbeit gesetzt werden und folglich mit ihrem Einkommen noch viel schlechter auskommen als sonst schon. Aus dem ärgerlichen Sonderfall des Lockdowns sollte man nicht gleich den Trugschluss ziehen, der Normalfall des alltäglichen Arbeitslebens wäre an und für sich ein Inbegriff erstrebenswerter Verhältnisse. Immerhin wirft der Ausnahmefall des erschwerten Lebensunterhalts ein Licht auf die Existenz- und Überlebensbedingung, die den erwerbsbürgerlichen Alltag so unbedingt beherrscht, dass man ihre Gemeinheit aus lauter Gewohnheit schon gar nicht mehr bemerkt.

Da gibt es Zeitgenossen, die sich über staatliche Freiheitsberaubung beklagen, weil sie gelegentlich einen Mund-Nasen-Schutz tragen sollen, um die Ausbreitung des Coronavirus zu hemmen. Die merken offenbar gar nicht, was sie damit über ihre bürgerliche Freiheit zu Protokoll geben. Aber was soll man sich auch von Leuten erwarten, die "quer" für eine löbliche Eigenschaft des "Denkens" halten oder die allen Ernstes gebieterisch fordern, der Staat – die "Merkel-Diktatur" – solle ihnen gefälligst sofort erlauben, wieder frei zu sein, damit sie barrierefrei husten können.
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 7th October 2020, 04:15 AM   #2371
Samson
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Originally Posted by Childlike Empress View Post
Looks like around 30,000 people died of hunger today.
Which happens everyday.
France closed all hostelries today.

Spot the diffeence?
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Old 7th October 2020, 06:23 AM   #2372
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Mod WarningSome bickering moved to AAH.

Please keep to the topic of this thread, which is, among other things, not about one another.

Thank you.
Responding to this mod box in thread will be off topic Posted By:zooterkin
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Old 7th October 2020, 10:13 AM   #2373
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A new article in Science about the Swedish strategy, and how some researchers consider leaving Sweden because of the pressure they have been exposed to for having criticized the strategy:
Quote:
Giesecke and Tegnell believed herd immunity would arrive quickly. In the Lancet article, Giesecke claimed about 21% of residents of Stockholm county had already been infected by the end of April; Tegnell predicted 40% of them would have antibodies by the end of May. When initial studies showed the number was actually about 6% in late May, Tegnell said immunity was hard to measure. FoHM continued to say Swedes had built up immunity, but in September it backtracked, estimating that “just under 12%” of Stockholm residents, and 6% to 8% of the Swedish population as a whole, had antibodies to the virus by mid-June.
(…)
FoHM “should have listened more carefully to the scientific community both inside and outside the country,” Hansson says. Still, he predicts the rifts will eventually heal. “I am sure we will continue to argue, but I don’t see permanent damage,” he says. “We’ll move on. We’ll go back to complaining about grants.”
But Ewing worries the fight has left permanent scars. He says at least three more members of the Vetenskapsforum are considering leaving Sweden, as Brusselaers did. And even if it turns out that the country has built up enough immunity to evade a new wave of disease, he says, the price has been too high. “I worry that countries around the world are going to say, ‘We can try what Sweden did.’ But we have killed too many people already.”
’It’s been so so surreal.’ Critics of Sweden’s lax pandemic policies face fierce backlash (Science, Oct. 6, 2020)

An article in Expressen today is based on the article in Science:
Efter kritiken: Forskare överväger lämna Sverige (Expressen.se, Oct. 7, 2020)
After the criticism: Researchers consider leaving Sweden
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 7th October 2020, 12:16 PM   #2374
dann
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Wednesday:
Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Oct. 7, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
Sweden: 582 (5,892) 532* 24** *according to SVT.se, ** according to SVT.se
Denmark: 114 (663) 331 15
Finland: 62 (346) 120 8
Norway: 51 (275) +111* 4 *+ because Norway’s numbers appear to be reported to Worldometers more than once a day.
Iceland: 29 (10) 91 4
Iceland has 796 active cases, Faroe Islands 24, New Zealand 37.
The Faroe Islands have 117 in quarantine, 1 hospitalized.
Quote:
One person tested positive yesterday and no-one on Monday.
The daily number of positive Covid tests over the past week has been as follows: 5, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0 and 1.
One new Covid case so far this week (KVF.fo, Oct. 7, 2020)

Considering the size of the population, Iceland's numbers are alarming, so new restrictions are being introduced: What’s the Status of COVID-19 in Iceland? (IcelandReview, Oct. 7, 2020)
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx

Last edited by dann; 7th October 2020 at 12:18 PM.
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Old 7th October 2020, 12:25 PM   #2375
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Europe:
Quote:
The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control's (ECDC) coronavirus alarm threshold is 20 cases per 100,000 people on a seven-day average. Beyond that, the agency says, the risk of Covid-19 is high, with a very high probability of infection, while vulnerable individuals face a "very high impact" from the disease.
And the situation is looking precarious. Only Germany (18.4 cases per 100,000), Finland (15.5), Cyprus (14.6) and Norway (13.9) fall below this case threshold, ECDC data showed on Monday.
Only four countries in Europe are below a critical coronavirus threshold (CNN, Oct. 5, 2020)

Denmark:
Mølbak: Restriktioner er den nye normal gennem efteråret og vinteren (TV2.dk, Oct. 7, 2020)
Mølbak: Restrictions will be the new normal this spring and the coming winter

Quote:
Gennemsnitligt 2,2 procent af den danske befolkning over 12 år har været smittet med coronavirus frem til 15. august.
(…)
Dermed kan markant flere danskere have været smittet med coronavirus end de officielle tal. Indtil videre er der i Danmark nemlig konstateret 30.379 smittetilfælde.
Mindst 90.000 danskere har været smittet, anslår SSI efter ny undersøgelse (TV2.dk, Oct. 7, 2020)
On average, 2,2 percent of the Danish population older than 12 have been infected with coronavirus before Aug. 15.
(…)
Significantly more Danes may have been infected with coronavirus than the official numbers say. So far, 30,379 cases have been registered.
(…)
At least 90,000 Danes have been infected, the State Serum Institute assumes after new study The study was based on a test for antibodies.

Sweden:
Tegnell: Jul utan släktkalas – och hemarbete i vår (DagensNyheter.se, Oct. 6, 2020)
Tegnell: Christmas without a family feast – and working from home in the spring
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 7th October 2020, 12:30 PM   #2376
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Originally Posted by Clutch Cargo View Post
It’s new cases in this category have more than doubled since yesterday’s tally. Naturally, the difference between 1 and 3 isn’t an earth-shattering increase but it does (again) dispel the fantasy claim that they have “eliminated” the virus more than once. I mean seriously, that “elimination” story will be the centre of jokes for a decade.
...LATEST UPDATE. After two weeks at Level 2 with no community transmission Auckland has joined the rest of the country at Level 1 which removes all mask mandates, social distancing measures and limitations on crowd sizes. We've eliminated Covid from the community for the second time.

The situation at the borders continues to reflect not the state of Covid in New Zealand, but the state of Covid in the rest of the world. Until the rest of the world gets the coronavirus under control we will continue to see new cases at the border. And we hope (and will do everything we can) to keep those cases at the border, but this is a global pandemic and the virus has proven to be a tricky beast. There are no guarantees. But we have an exceptionally strong resurgence plan that has worked before, it will work again.
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Old 7th October 2020, 09:33 PM   #2377
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Exclamation

LATEST UPDATE. according to WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)

Data last updated: 2020/10/7, 4:23pm CEST

Newly reported cases in the last 24 hours:

U.S. 38,920
Australia 25
Sweden 0
Denmark 322
New Zealand 3

It looks like Sweden is the ONLY country with ”elimination” being a feasible option. Naturally, if new cases pop up they can always ”eliminate” the virus again but that goes without saying.

This subject is based upon statistics laced with propaganda. I see statistics being quoted in support of certain countries. By support I mean praise. Wonderful. Not. But when statistics are quoted that put the opposing philosophy in a good light well …. the reaction is, “Yeah, but …” or “It’s false statistics”. At the moment it seems to be focused around the term “eliminate”, tweaking the term to mean something it doesn’t. Propaganda at its best - or is it worst?

What puzzles me is that Denmark – having taken serious measures to “eliminate” the virus - is now actually going through a period of fluctuation of higher (and even higher) levels of the virus. Strange, very strange. But we can always find new ways to spin the term “eliminate” and then Denmark can shoot up to the most successful nation that has “eliminated” the virus.

Anyway, I’ve posted the LATEST UPDATE. according to WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) and there it is.
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Old 7th October 2020, 11:20 PM   #2378
dann
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CC has managed to prove that he can manipulate data by pretending that when a certain site doesn't (yet!) present any data, the data must be "0".
It offends him that he was wrong about the meaning of the word "eliminate", but instead of appreciating the correction, he is making a big song and dance out of insisting on his misinterpretation by lying about whatever occurs to him.

Unfortunately for CC (and for an awful lot of his compatriots, but for a different reason), his WHO site also shows that Sweden's numbers have been rising slowly but steadily for the past five weeks: Sweden

And unfortunately for CC (but fortunately for Danes), his WHO site shows the opposite of what he is now claiming, "that Denmark – having taken serious measures to “eliminate” the virus - is now actually going through a period of fluctuation of higher (and even higher) levels of the virus.": Denmark
WHO's numbers show that after having dropped to an almost* insignificant level in July, the number of new confirmed cases in Denmark began to rise again in August until new restrictions were introduced, which made the numbers go down again as they have been doing for the past ten days.

So CC's "higher (and even higher)" is a deliberate lie, whereas the second half of his paragraph about Denmark may just be a lie based on ignorance: "Strange, very strange. But we can always find new ways to spin the term “eliminate” and then Denmark can shoot up to the most successful nation that has “eliminated” the virus."
Unlike countries like New Zealand, Iceland and the Faroe Islands, Denmark never intended to eliminate the virus and never claimed that it had been eliminated: The Danish strategy was (and is still, unfortunately) the Hammer & the Dance. The three other countries did intend to eliminate the virus, and they did so successfully. (And they are not the only ones!) That the virus, after having been eliminated, was reintroduced into all three countries by travelers from outside their areas was regrettable but not entirely unexpected, i.e. the countries were all aware that it might happen, and it did.

Countries like these are a thorn in the side of people preaching that we should let the virus rip until so many people have been infected (incl. died or maimed for the rest of their shortened lives) that an moron's version of 'herd immunity' has been achieved. That is why they rejoice when they hear about New Zealand, Iceland and the Faroe Islands having to start all over again.
Guys like Anders Tegnell who not only want but actually need elimination to be impossible (!) can't simply accept the fact that it isn't.
CC has made it obvious that he is one of those guys.

- - - - - -
*almost, because we are talking about a very infectious disease, so even low numbers are never insignificant.
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 7th October 2020, 11:25 PM   #2379
dann
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
Wednesday:
Coronavirus - countries (Worldometers, Oct. 7, 2020)
Deaths per million (Total deaths) New cases Serious/Critical
(...)
Norway: 51 (275) +111* 4 *+ because Norway’s numbers appear to be reported to Worldometers more than once a day.

Norway's number of new cases for Wednesday has now been changed to 229 at Worldometers.
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"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 7th October 2020, 11:43 PM   #2380
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Originally Posted by banquetbear View Post
...LATEST UPDATE. After two weeks at Level 2 with no community transmission Auckland has joined the rest of the country at Level 1 which removes all mask mandates, social distancing measures and limitations on crowd sizes. We've eliminated Covid from the community for the second time.

Sheeples!
How can you put up with the tyrannical oppression that is New Zealand?!
Why can't you just embrace the freedom of the herd immunity strategy?!
Quote:
Team sports, parties at home and public transport are often mentioned when people are talking about the places where the risk of virus transmission is particularly high. The epidemiologist Emma Frans explains what we know about the places with the highest risk of infection.
One place that few people may consider is at home.
- Many people are infected with Covid-19 by a sick relative at home, but you can lower your risk of infection by trying to keep a distance to the sick person, Emma Frans says.
List: What we know about the risk of infection in different everyday places (SVT.se, Oct. 7, 2020)

Sheeples!!!!!!
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 8th October 2020, 12:58 AM   #2381
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A paper here suggests Sweden may be right!
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3588
Lock downs may result in a final mortality higher than a more liberal approach allowing herd immunity to develop in low risk (younger) people.

The author accepts lock downs may be (and were) necessary to stop the health service being overwhelmed by surges in cases. The argument is that in the end they do not save lives.
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Old 8th October 2020, 01:14 AM   #2382
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Originally Posted by Planigale View Post
A paper here suggests Sweden may be right!
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3588
Lock downs may result in a final mortality higher than a more liberal approach allowing herd immunity to develop in low risk (younger) people.

The author accepts lock downs may be (and were) necessary to stop the health service being overwhelmed by surges in cases. The argument is that in the end they do not save lives.
“In the absence of an effective vaccination programme”. The strategy was adopted in the knowledge that it was a temporary fix, pending the development of a vaccine. If such a vaccine is not forthcoming, then obviously things may get worse.
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Old 8th October 2020, 01:34 AM   #2383
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Originally Posted by zooterkin View Post
“In the absence of an effective vaccination programme”. The strategy was adopted in the knowledge that it was a temporary fix, pending the development of a vaccine. If such a vaccine is not forthcoming, then obviously things may get worse.
Exactly. Sweden's "we had to destroy the village to save the village" approach may be possibly vindicated if a vaccine is not found, but I doubt even then.

To make a policy decision, as they did, to accept death rates amongst the highest in the world and result in ever increasing infection rates is shameful. The Swedish government and those who support it should hang their heads in shame, and distortion of the facts as some here are doing (CC) doesn't change its culpability.
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Old 8th October 2020, 01:58 AM   #2384
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It is also worth noticing that this is based on the UK! Effect of school closures on mortality from coronavirus disease 2019: old and new predictions (BMJ, Oct. 7, 2020)


Quote:
Population About 70 million simulated people matched as closely as possible to actual UK demographics, geography, and social behaviours.

Main outcome measures Replication of summary data on the covid-19 epidemic [hilite]reported to the UK government Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), and a detailed study of unpublished results, especially the effect of school closures.

Results The CovidSim model would have produced a good forecast of the subsequent data if initialised with a reproduction number of about 3.5 for covid-19. The model predicted that school closures and isolation of younger people would increase the total number of deaths, albeit postponed to a second and subsequent waves. The findings of this study suggest that prompt interventions were shown to be highly effective at reducing peak demand for intensive care unit (ICU) beds but also prolong the epidemic, in some cases resulting in more deaths long term. This happens because covid-19 related mortality is highly skewed towards older age groups. In the absence of an effective vaccination programme, none of the proposed mitigation strategies in the UK would reduce the predicted total number of deaths below 200 000.

It seems to be based on a model akin to the Hammer without the Dance but with protection of the vulnerable exclusively.
It seems to be based on the same idea Sweden's herd-immunity strategy was based on:

Quote:
Conclusions It was predicted in March 2020 that in response to covid-19 a broad lockdown, as opposed to a focus on shielding the most vulnerable members of society, would reduce immediate demand for ICU beds at the cost of more deaths long term. The optimal strategy for saving lives in a covid-19 epidemic is different from that anticipated for an influenza epidemic with a different mortality age profile.

If you build into your model that "the most vulnerable members of society" are actually shielded, your model is very different from reality.
In real life, actually shielding the elderly from the virus consists in hammering it down - preferably eliminating it. As soon as the virus starts spreading again, nursery homes are hit as again. It's what happened in both Sweden and Denmark in recent weeks. Measures to protect only "the most vulnerable members of society" while letting the virus rip don't seem to work - except in models. We know how well it worked in Sweden ...

When you are dealing with "simulated people" only, you need to be aware that it is extremely easy to protect simulated vulnerable people!
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"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx

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Old 8th October 2020, 02:30 AM   #2385
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Inquiring minds want to know - so Anders Tegnell doesn't!

Quote:
Enligt ett pressmeddelande som KTH lagt ut på sin hemsida, och som DN var först att rapportera om, har mängden virus som hittats i avloppsvattnet i Stockholm fördubblats de senaste veckorna – och är nu på samma höga nivåer som i maj i år.
Tegnell om KTH:s studie: ”Vad tillför det här?” (SvenskaDagbladet.se, Oct. 6, 2020)
According to a press release placed on the website of the KTH, which DagensNyheter was the first media to report, the amount of virus found in sewage water in Stockholm has doubled in recent weeks – and is now at the same high level as in May 2020.
Tegnell about KTH’s study: “What’s the use of this?”

Quote:
Analyser av avloppsvattnet kan visa coronavirusnivåer eller utbrott av kräksjuka. Men forskare anser att det saknas ett intresse hos politikerna att satsa på analyserna.
– Det är inte rimligt i längden att det svenska folkhälsosystemet bärs upp av frivilliga studenter, säger David Nilsson, docent vid KTH.
Forskarkritik om avloppsprov (SvenskaDagbladet.se, Oct. 8, 2020)
Analyses of sewage water can show the levels of coronavirus or outbreaks of norovirus. But researchers say that politicians are not interested in investing in the analyses.
– In the long run, it is unreasonable that the Swedish health-care system is based on volunteer students, says David Nilsson, lecturer at the KTH.
Researchers criticize the response to sewage testing


The analyses of sewage water seem to agree with the rise in reported cases in Sweden in recent weeks:
Originally Posted by dann View Post
Tuesday, Sep. 15: Sweden: 840* *since Friday, according to SVT.se
Tuesday, Sep. 22: Sweden: 1199* *since Friday, according to SVT.se
Tuesday, Sep. 29: 1,543 since Friday, according to SVT.se
Tuesdag, Oct. 6: 1,862 since Friday, according to SVT.se
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"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx

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Old 8th October 2020, 02:45 AM   #2386
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Originally Posted by Clutch Cargo View Post
LATEST UPDATE. according to WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19),
Data last updated: 2020/10/6, 3:07pm CEST

Newly reported cases in the last 24 hours:

U.S. 36,136
Australia 13
Sweden 0
Denmark 377
New Zealand 3

Sweden must have truly succeeded in “eliminating” the virus but poor New Zealand. It’s new cases in this category have more than doubled since yesterday’s tally. Naturally, the difference between 1 and 3 isn’t an earth-shattering increase but it does (again) dispel the fantasy claim that they have “eliminated” the virus more than once. I mean seriously, that “elimination” story will be the centre of jokes for a decade.
The cases in NZ are people that are in isolation after coming into the country on flights from elsewhere, they aren't in the community and aren't a threat to people outside of the isolation facilities.

We currently have 0 cases outside of the Isolation Facilities and have had for about 12 days since the last small outbreak was deal with. Auckland returned to level 1 the other day, meaning the entire country is back to Level 1 now.

We have indeed eliminated the virus from our community twice, actually technically 4 times since we had three outbreaks during the second "wave".
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Old 8th October 2020, 04:03 AM   #2387
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Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
The cases in NZ are people that are in isolation after coming into the country on flights from elsewhere, they aren't in the community and aren't a threat to people outside of the isolation facilities.

We currently have 0 cases outside of the Isolation Facilities and have had for about 12 days since the last small outbreak was deal with. Auckland returned to level 1 the other day, meaning the entire country is back to Level 1 now.

We have indeed eliminated the virus from our community twice, actually technically 4 times since we had three outbreaks during the second "wave".
While I agree with this post in the main, NSW was basking in the glory of 14 days or so of no community transmissions. Until today, with 8. So I wouldn’t be as sure as you seem to be that there will be no further outbreaks and soon.

I think Australia’s policy of controlling the virus is more practical. Get down to 5-10 a day which are easily traced and controlled and live with that.

ETA a vaccine, of course, would make the goal of elimination much more practical.
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Old 8th October 2020, 04:43 AM   #2388
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
I think Australia’s policy of controlling the virus is more practical. Get down to 5-10 a day which are easily traced and controlled and live with that.
...zero cases a day is much more practical to trace and control than 5-10 cases a day.
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Old 8th October 2020, 04:48 AM   #2389
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Originally Posted by banquetbear View Post
...zero cases a day is much more practical to trace and control than 5-10 cases a day.
Of course. What about my post did you not understand? You seem wedded to elimination as the only solution. I’m saying controlling a low number is a decent, achievable solution, particularly with larger populations than NZ.
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Old 8th October 2020, 05:20 AM   #2390
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Of course.
...I'm glad you agree with me.

Quote:
What about my post did you not understand? You seem wedded to elimination as the only solution.
You said "Australia’s policy of controlling the virus is more practical." Then you agreed with me by saying "of course (zero cases a day is much more practical to trace and control than 5-10 cases a day)." So what part of my post did you not understand? Do you agree with me or not?

Quote:
I’m saying controlling a low number is a decent, achievable solution, particularly with larger populations than NZ.
That literally wasn't what you said. I responded to what you actually said and you agreed with me. It this is what you intended to say then I would have said something different. I think Australia could get to elimination if it wanted, and there are a number of scientists who think it would be a valid strategy. But (as I've already stated in this thread) I'm not wedded to elimination as the only solution (outside of NZ). Australia’s policy of controlling the virus is a practical one. But it isn't more practical and it won't produce better (health) outcomes than the New Zealand strategy which is what you compared it too.
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Old 8th October 2020, 05:22 AM   #2391
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Of course. What about my post did you not understand? You seem wedded to elimination as the only solution. I’m saying controlling a low number is a decent, achievable solution, particularly with larger populations than NZ.

Elimination may not be the only solution, but it is obviously the most effective solution. The Hammer & the Dance is bloody annoying, and I fear that people are much more likely to get so tired of it that they become susceptible to the ideologues preaching herd immunity. When you have already experienced how effective the elimination strategy is, very few can be persuaded by the anti-maskers and virus deniers to let it rip.

Originally Posted by lionking View Post
So I wouldn’t be as sure as you seem to be that there will be no further outbreaks and soon.

I didn't see PhantomWolf claim that he was sure that "there will be no further outbreaks." Iceland shows us that a couple of infected psychopaths can get the whole thing started again.
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"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 8th October 2020, 05:59 AM   #2392
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Originally Posted by banquetbear View Post
...I'm glad you agree with me.



You said "Australia’s policy of controlling the virus is more practical." Then you agreed with me by saying "of course (zero cases a day is much more practical to trace and control than 5-10 cases a day)." So what part of my post did you not understand? Do you agree with me or not?



That literally wasn't what you said. I responded to what you actually said and you agreed with me. It this is what you intended to say then I would have said something different. I think Australia could get to elimination if it wanted, and there are a number of scientists who think it would be a valid strategy. But (as I've already stated in this thread) I'm not wedded to elimination as the only solution (outside of NZ). Australia’s policy of controlling the virus is a practical one. But it isn't more practical and it won't produce better (health) outcomes than the New Zealand strategy which is what you compared it too.
Oh, the magical NZ. I think too many of you think you are really in Middle Earth, where different rules prevail.

As I pointed out earlier, NSW had no community transmissions. Until they did. In my view complete elimination of this virus without a vaccine is magical thinking. But carry on.
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Old 8th October 2020, 07:41 AM   #2393
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
Oh, the magical NZ. I think too many of you think you are really in Middle Earth, where different rules prevail.

As I pointed out earlier, NSW had no community transmissions. Until they did. In my view complete elimination of this virus without a vaccine is magical thinking. But carry on.
You have to remember that we went 109 days without community spread until it got through the border three times in a few weeks, one of which led to our largest cluster and 3 deaths. We are very aware that this virus is sneaky and can slip through the protections. In one case an infected worker carried it out of isolation, in another, a returnee carried it out of isolation after testing negative on both day 3 and day 12. We still don't have a clue how the virus escaped to cause the major cluster.

However, what we do know is that fast contact tracing and isolation for those close contacts, and infected, works and ends the clusters quickly. We also know that having 8-10 cases a day can quickly turn into having 50-60 cases a day. Having 0 cases a day is a much-preferred target and is achievable, even is that means putting out spot fires as they occur. This doesn't require magical thinking, just the will to do it.
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Old 8th October 2020, 09:43 AM   #2394
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Originally Posted by lionking View Post
In my view complete elimination of this virus without a vaccine is magical thinking.

That's what Tegnell's fans claim: "Impossible!"
But at this point, it has already been done - in more places and more than once. I see no reason not to do it. It saves lives and health, and it is probably cheaper, too.
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"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx
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Old 8th October 2020, 09:44 AM   #2395
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Originally Posted by PhantomWolf View Post
However, what we do know is that fast contact tracing and isolation for those close contacts, and infected, works and ends the clusters quickly. We also know that having 8-10 cases a day can quickly turn into having 50-60 cases a day. Having 0 cases a day is a much-preferred target and is achievable, even is that means putting out spot fires as they occur. This doesn't require magical thinking, just the will to do it.
And a population of less than 5m, and all isolated on a relatively small island nation, and with a full travel ban initiated only a few days after Trump's China travel ban, which was relentlessly mocked, but for all the wrong (and hypocritical) reasons.

We shall see if you can hold out with the travel bans until a vaccine arrives.
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Old 8th October 2020, 09:47 AM   #2396
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Originally Posted by dann View Post
That's what Tegnell's fans claim: "Impossible!"
But at this point, it has already been done - in more places and more than once. I see no reason not to do it. It saves lives and health, and it is probably cheaper, too.
You see no reasons not to do it, despite the obvious demographic, geographic, and political factors that make it uniquely impossible for non-islands with massive, mobile populations to do. Admit it. You wouldn't mind sealing people in their homes a la the Chinese in Wuhan, right? You have Karl Marx in your signature. This wouldn't be so surprising.
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Old 8th October 2020, 10:05 AM   #2397
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Originally Posted by Tippit View Post
... Admit it. You wouldn't mind sealing people in their homes a la the Chinese in Wuhan, right? You have Karl Marx in your signature. This wouldn't be so surprising.

What the hell has Karl Marx got to do with it? You'd have a point had it been Lenin, or Stalin, or Trotsky, or one of those goons of whichever persuasion.

I find this line of thinking incomprehensible. A vaccine, or maybe vaccines, plural, will likely be available in a few months, a year tops (hopefully -- but obviously that's not certain). What kind of snowflake, what kind of restraint-less lightweight entirely lacking in determination and self control, is unable to stay put for a matter of months, in order to protect themselves, and more importantly to protect the old and vulnerable in our midst? I can understand when it comes to peoples, nations that are poor, masses of their populations starving -- but for the rest?

China does that by fiat. Civilized nations, one would have thought, would economically incentivize people to stay put, prop them up a few months, so that only those activities absolutely necessary are carried out. For the rest, what, is waiting things out just a few months more -- doing what can e done remotely, and for the rest as far as possible just letting things be, such an impossible goal, in order to prevent thousands of unnecessary deaths?
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Old 8th October 2020, 10:27 AM   #2398
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Originally Posted by Chanakya View Post
What the hell has Karl Marx got to do with it? You'd have a point had it been Lenin, or Stalin, or Trotsky, or one of those goons of whichever persuasion.
Because Karl Marx is ultimately responsible for China, the only place (that I'm aware of) that has resorted to physically imprisoning people in their own homes.

Quote:

I find this line of thinking incomprehensible. A vaccine, or maybe vaccines, plural, will likely be available in a few months, a year tops (hopefully -- but obviously that's not certain). What kind of snowflake, what kind of restraint-less lightweight entirely lacking in determination and self control, is unable to stay put for a matter of months, in order to protect themselves, and more importantly to protect the old and vulnerable in our midst? I can understand when it comes to peoples, nations that are poor, masses of their populations starving -- but for the rest?

China does that by fiat. Civilized nations, one would have thought, would economically incentivize people to stay put, prop them up a few months, so that only those activities absolutely necessary are carried out. For the rest, what, is waiting things out just a few months more -- doing what can e done remotely, and for the rest as far as possible just letting things be, such an impossible goal, in order to prevent thousands of unnecessary deaths?
Because the costs of imprisoning yourself, and embracing all manner of draconian measures for this disease far outweigh the benefits.
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Old 8th October 2020, 10:51 AM   #2399
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Originally Posted by Tippit View Post
...
Because the costs of imprisoning yourself, and embracing all manner of draconian measures for this disease far outweigh the benefits.

To begin with, if they're embraced, as opposed to imposed, that would take care of one of your objections.

As for costs and benefits: those are subjective, I agree, and you're fully entitled to your values. But what I find incomprehensible, and what I'd invite you to discuss, if you like, is this: Do you then value human lives, yours as well as others', so little? Look at these heaps of unnecessary deaths in the US, that could so easily have been prevented. Is some amount of economic loss such a high price to pay, over a few short months, to save those lives? (Losses that can be mitigated for the most vulnerable by government policy.) (And, to repeat, I'm speaking of developed nations. I agree that there's a case to be made for poorer nations to take in their stride some deaths from the virus, to prevent more deaths from starving.)
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Old 8th October 2020, 11:38 AM   #2400
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Originally Posted by Tippit View Post
You see no reasons not to do it, despite the obvious demographic, geographic, and political factors that make it uniquely impossible for non-islands with massive, mobile populations to do.

The demographic, geographic, and political factors really don't enter into it. In the middle ages you might have had a point, but New Zealand isn't very difficult to go to even if you live on the other side of the Earht, which I do, more or less. By the way, we have already established that Sweden's population isn't very massive, pop. density 25, and I doubt that Swedes are more mobile than Kiwis is. Very few Swedes make a living following the herds of reindeer nowadays, and I seriously doubt that the ones who do contribute much to the spread of coronavirus.
However, if you consider idiotic Neo-Liberalist ideas of herd immunity, then you may have a point with your reference to political factors, but that is a very bad excuse.

Quote:
Admit it. You wouldn't mind sealing people in their homes a la the Chinese in Wuhan, right? You have Karl Marx in your signature. This wouldn't be so surprising.

I have not only Karl Marx but also Bertolt Brecht, another commie, in my signature.
I was never a fan of Chinese 'communism', but I have noticed something that you probably haven't: At the very early stage of the pandemic, the media were full of news reports from China with terrifying descriptions of the inhumane way they treated Chinese citizens. You know, "sealing people in their homes."
In my country, this horror stories about China's inhumane pandemic response more or less vanished after a Danish TV team followed a Dane traveling to China where he experienced what it was like to live through the Chinese quarantine: It was a bit boring, but apart from that, it didn't seem so bad and it was obviously very effective.
At approximately the same time, we saw Northern Italy, the Bergamo region, for instance, "sealing people in their homes," which made most of the world realize that quarantining people may be a pretty brutal way to tackle a pandemic, but not really a sign of an autocracy at work. And it works!
There's the obvious success story of China's pandemic strategy:
Total cases: 85,500 (Sweden: 97,532)
New cases today: 11 (Sweden: 855) I assume China's new cases are mostly incoming travelers like in NZ)
Total deaths: 4,634 (Sweden: 5,892)
Deaths per million: 2 (Sweden: 582)

But there is another thing I haven't heard anybody talk about for months: the Chinese coronavirus dissidents, who were so interesting in February and March!
Now, I am not unaware of China's treatment of dissidents in general and coronavirus dissidents in particular back then, but I think there is a reason why we don't really hear about Chinese coronavirus dissidents anymore: People in China now know about the ****** up pandemic response in most of the rest of the world and are quite content that China's pandemic response was the way it was: carefully calculated, timely executed and effective.
I wouldn't want to live in China, but, man, I wouldn't have minded it Denmark had tackled the coronavirus the way China did!

So you are almost right when you say that I "wouldn't mind sealing people in their homes a la the Chinese in Wuhan." I was quite content not to have been sealed in my home in March and April during the Danish lockdown, but I also think that it would have helped save hundreds of lives if we had been, which would have been worth the inconvenience and would have ended the outbreak much sooner, which would have made a 'house arrest' tolerable. Denmark: 665 deaths (115 per million).

Unlike China, the only country in the world that was 100% unprepared for SARS-CoV-2, it was also easier for the Scandinavian countries to avoid "sealing people in their homes": A couple of months into the pandemic, it was already beginning to be clear how the virus spreads and how it doesn't.
China didn't know anything when the whole thing started, but we knew much more a few months later thanks to China and South Korea and were therefore never sealed in our homes.


ETA: When you call the pandemic response of countries like Australia and New Zealand tyrannical, it really spoils your credibility when you criticize China's handling of the pandemic!
__________________
/dann
"Stupidity renders itself invisible by assuming very large proportions. Completely unreasonable claims are irrefutable. Ni-en-leh pointed out that a philosopher might get into trouble by claiming that two times two makes five, but he does not risk much by claiming that two times two makes shoe polish." B. Brecht
"The abolition of religion as the illusory happiness of the people is required for their real happiness. The demand to give up the illusion about its condition is the demand to give up a condition which needs illusions." K. Marx

Last edited by dann; 8th October 2020 at 11:40 AM.
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