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Tags 2020 elections , democratic party , presidential candidates

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Old 21st August 2019, 07:03 AM   #521
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
Sounds rather circular, since he's more likely to unseat Trump only if he has more support.
Only if one conflates the primary election with the general.
Biden has support in the primaries because he polls best in the general.

They are two different (somewhat overlapping) voter pools.
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Old 21st August 2019, 07:05 AM   #522
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
It does if the reason was a lower left-inclined voter turnout.
Does "the left" seem like it will be dis-inclined to vote out Trump this election?

We would vote for a ball-less monkey to get rid of him.
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Old 21st August 2019, 07:07 AM   #523
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
We would vote for a ball-less monkey to get rid of him.
Ted Cruz isn't running this time.
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Old 21st August 2019, 07:07 AM   #524
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
Not exactly. I want a good president, one worth having. Not another shifty hypocritical plutocrat to serve the banks. Biden's is a boring sort of evil. A facade of dullness is a useful mask. Warren may be an idealist and her ideas may not work but she does seem to be honest about them and willing to try.
They need to weed out the field until they're left with 3-4 candidates so each can have a good amount of time to make their case and policies clear. Then we'd have a better of how each of them is faring.
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Old 21st August 2019, 07:09 AM   #525
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
They need to weed out the field until they're left with 3-4 candidates so each can have a good amount of time to make their case and policies clear. Then we'd have a better of how each of them is faring.
I wish Warren would just go ahead and assimilate Sanders with her Borg nanoprobes. She's the practical, less crazy version of him. If he were gone I think most of his supporters would back her.
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Old 21st August 2019, 07:20 AM   #526
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
I wish Warren would just go ahead and assimilate Sanders with her Borg nanoprobes. She's the practical, less crazy version of him. If he were gone I think most of his supporters would back her.
Weirdly (or not), most of the people currently backing Sanders have Biden as their second choice.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ar...en_140987.html

Quote:
According to the Morning Consult poll, the second-choice of most Sanders supporters is not Warren, but Biden.
I think they should wait till the last minute for one to drop out.
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Old 21st August 2019, 07:21 AM   #527
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
True, but that hatred was held by the people that wouldn't have voted Democrat regardless. What does it matter if a person loathes Clinton and only mildly dislikes Biden if they're going to vote for Trump anyway? It's like how the depth of a lake doesn't matter to someone floating on the surface, whether it's ten feet deep or a thousand they're at the same elevation.
The calculus is thus:

The Left is already highly motivated to turn out this election, our disdain for the current occupant of the White House demands it.

In and of itself, our motivation to vote may not be enough to overcome institutional roadblocks and secure the office of POTUS.

There are many on The Right who are un-enthusiastic about Trump, and may be inclined to vote against him (or not vote for the POTUS at all) if the candidate we run does not trigger the knee-jerk "OMG SOCIALISTS!!!!" as readily as some of our more left leaning options.

In order to win, it is likely that we will need a candidate who will do well amongst the (small) number of Independents- while not stirring the lukewarm to cold Right leaning voters into action.

At this time, Biden seems to be the best prospect for that. I don't think many of us actually expect him to govern (or even survive his first term), but he may be the one most able to give us a "rubber stamp" presidency.
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Old 21st August 2019, 07:23 AM   #528
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Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
Weirdly (or not), most of the people currently backing Sanders have Biden as their second choice.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ar...en_140987.html



I think they should wait till the last minute for one to drop out.
The two candidates who do best in head-to-head polls against Trump, no?
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Old 21st August 2019, 07:30 AM   #529
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Originally Posted by kellyb View Post
Weirdly (or not), most of the people currently backing Sanders have Biden as their second choice.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ar...en_140987.html
Good God, why?! Biden's much less like Sanders than Warren is! What is wrong with people?!
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Old 21st August 2019, 07:32 AM   #530
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
Only if one conflates the primary election with the general.
Biden has support in the primaries because he polls best in the general.

They are two different (somewhat overlapping) voter pools.
Good point.
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Old 21st August 2019, 07:33 AM   #531
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
Good God, why?! Biden's much less like Sanders than Warren is! What is wrong with people?!
I think they might not pay much attention to politics. lol
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Old 21st August 2019, 07:34 AM   #532
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
Good God, why?! Biden's much less like Sanders than Warren is! What is wrong with people?!
Maybe they just want to vote for old white men?


Seriously, though, I have no idea. That sounded weird to me, but them's the polls.
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Old 21st August 2019, 07:36 AM   #533
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
The calculus is thus:

The Left is already highly motivated to turn out this election, our disdain for the current occupant of the White House demands it.

In and of itself, our motivation to vote may not be enough to overcome institutional roadblocks and secure the office of POTUS.

There are many on The Right who are un-enthusiastic about Trump, and may be inclined to vote against him (or not vote for the POTUS at all) if the candidate we run does not trigger the knee-jerk "OMG SOCIALISTS!!!!" as readily as some of our more left leaning options.

In order to win, it is likely that we will need a candidate who will do well amongst the (small) number of Independents- while not stirring the lukewarm to cold Right leaning voters into action.

At this time, Biden seems to be the best prospect for that. I don't think many of us actually expect him to govern (or even survive his first term), but he may be the one most able to give us a "rubber stamp" presidency.
Ugh. Intellectually I can accept that, but emotionally it makes me mad to think we have to appeal to the thrice-damned idiotic deplorables who voted for the Orange Apocalypse last time. I'd rather run a clean ship towards a noble destination than trawl the stinking harbor for bottomfeeding mudfish. So I guess it's good for my soul I'm not a politician. I don't think I could do it.
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Old 21st August 2019, 07:45 AM   #534
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
Ugh. Intellectually I can accept that, but emotionally it makes me mad to think we have to appeal to the thrice-damned idiotic deplorables who voted for the Orange Apocalypse last time. I'd rather run a clean ship towards a noble destination than trawl the stinking harbor for bottomfeeding mudfish. So I guess it's good for my soul I'm not a politician. I don't think I could do it.
We are not appealing to the "deplorables" (we will never appeal to them). We are trying to give those who voted Trump solely out of disdain for Clinton (or loyalty to what they hoped would be conservative ideals) an excuse to sit this one out.
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Old 21st August 2019, 08:05 AM   #535
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The one piece of evidence for electability is how well they do winning elections. But that seems to be the least discussed item.
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Old 21st August 2019, 08:10 AM   #536
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
The one piece of evidence for electability is how well they do winning elections. But that seems to be the least discussed item.
Just because Biden's lost every time he's run for president is no reason to suggest he won't win eventually. There's always 2024, and 2028 after that!
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Old 21st August 2019, 08:15 AM   #537
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
Ugh. Intellectually I can accept that, but emotionally it makes me mad to think we have to appeal to the thrice-damned idiotic deplorables who voted for the Orange Apocalypse last time.
The good news is, you don't have to appeal to the deplorables. Even Hillary agrees that they're a minority of the total right wing vote. And I think we all recognize that they're going to vote Trump regardless of your appeals.

But the deplorables aren't the ones that elected Trump in 2016. The people you have to appeal to are swing voters in a few key states. These people are not deplorables. These are people who could have been appealed to in 2016, and can be appealed to in 2020. Confusing them with the deplorables is probably not going to appeal to them, though. Calling them thrice-damned and writing them off is probably gonna end up being one of those "... because this is how you get more Trump" moments in 2020.
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Old 21st August 2019, 08:20 AM   #538
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
The good news is, you don't have to appeal to the deplorables. Even Hillary agrees that they're a minority of the total right wing vote. And I think we all recognize that they're going to vote Trump regardless of your appeals.

But the deplorables aren't the ones that elected Trump in 2016. The people you have to appeal to are swing voters in a few key states. These people are not deplorables. These are people who could have been appealed to in 2016, and can be appealed to in 2020. Confusing them with the deplorables is probably not going to appeal to them, though. Calling them thrice-damned and writing them off is probably gonna end up being one of those "... because this is how you get more Trump" moments in 2020.
Yeah, it'll be my fault because everyone pays attention to what I say. I'm such a huuuuge celebrity and this message board is sooooooo influential that my mean remarks about white trash could blow my book deal, cancel my corporate sponsorships, and trigger a political fallout that ushers in an actual Nazi regime.
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Old 21st August 2019, 08:22 AM   #539
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
Yeah, it'll be my fault because everyone pays attention to what I say. I'm such a huuuuge celebrity and this message board is sooooooo influential that my mean remarks about white trash could blow my book deal, cancel my corporate sponsorships, and trigger a political fallout that ushers in an actual Nazi regime.
Weird flex, but okay.

Now how about addressing the substance of my argument.
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Old 21st August 2019, 08:22 AM   #540
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What's a "flex", in this context?
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Old 21st August 2019, 08:28 AM   #541
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Weird flex, but okay.

Now how about addressing the substance of my argument.
Already covered. As I said above, I'm glad I'm not a politician. Because I couldn't do that, "that" being watering down principle to make myself more appealing to those who favor the opposite. And luckily for me, I'm not a politician, so my remarks here cause no problems for those who are carefully polishing the Biden turd to a mirror sheen that will entice the deplorable. I may even bring myself to vote for him, as I did for Clinton, because I felt I had to despite how utterly dreadful they both are.
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Old 21st August 2019, 08:30 AM   #542
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
What's a "flex", in this context?
I can't not brag: yesterday I decline bench pressed 135, a new record for me! For 8 reps in 5 sets! (No spotter so I never try maximum, I lift at a weight until I can do 12 reps then move up.)
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Old 21st August 2019, 08:31 AM   #543
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
I can't not brag: yesterday I decline bench pressed 135, a new record for me! For 8 reps in 5 sets! (No spotter so I never try maximum, I lift at a weight until I can do 12 reps then move up.)
That's exactly what I was imagining, but with someone with your avatar for a face.
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Old 21st August 2019, 08:32 AM   #544
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Originally Posted by Belz... View Post
That's exactly what I was imagining, but with someone with your avatar for a face.
My skull is swole, bro!
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Old 21st August 2019, 08:44 AM   #545
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
Already covered. As I said above, I'm glad I'm not a politician. Because I couldn't do that, "that" being watering down principle to make myself more appealing to those who favor the opposite.
Again, your problem isn't appealing to those who favor the opposite. Your problem is appealing to those who favor neither very strongly, but could be persuaded to favor you.

And I think your concern for not watering down your principles has blinded you to the other important tool in your arsenal: Finding principles you share in common, and building them up.
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Old 21st August 2019, 08:57 AM   #546
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
Again, your problem isn't appealing to those who favor the opposite. Your problem is appealing to those who favor neither very strongly, but could be persuaded to favor you.

And I think your concern for not watering down your principles has blinded you to the other important tool in your arsenal: Finding principles you share in common, and building them up.
This is me you're talking about. My principles are highly eccentric and have no hope of appealing to a broad segment of the society in which I live. It's not even a consideration. Luckily for their careers politicians don't have that problem. Even my preferred candidate is lightyears away from what I'd like to have done. So let them try to appeal, it's part of the job.
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Old 21st August 2019, 09:02 AM   #547
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
I wish Warren would just go ahead and assimilate Sanders with her Borg nanoprobes. She's the practical, less crazy version of him. If he were gone I think most of his supporters would back her.
I have a sinking gut feeling that Sanders has started to buy into his own mythology as the "darkhorse non-mainstream candidate" a little too much.
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Old 21st August 2019, 09:06 AM   #548
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
This is me you're talking about. My principles are highly eccentric and have no hope of appealing to a broad segment of the society in which I live. It's not even a consideration. Luckily for their careers politicians don't have that problem. Even my preferred candidate is lightyears away from what I'd like to have done. So let them try to appeal, it's part of the job.
I'm actually talking about a hypothetical you who's a serious political candidate with strong principles, who's considering a campaign strategy of writing off swing voters as deplorables who are committed to the GOP hard line.
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Old 21st August 2019, 09:07 AM   #549
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
I have a sinking gut feeling that Sanders has started to buy into his own mythology as the "darkhorse non-mainstream candidate" a little too much.
I don't. I'm pretty sure that Sanders has given this whole thing a lot more thought than you or I, and probably has a much better grasp of what is and isn't than you are.
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Old 21st August 2019, 09:19 AM   #550
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Originally Posted by theprestige View Post
I'm actually talking about a hypothetical you who's a serious political candidate with strong principles, who's considering a campaign strategy of writing off swing voters as deplorables who are committed to the GOP hard line.
Then yes, even if I were a political candidate I'd abandon the middle of the field and swing for the fences. I'd choose that gamble over the possibility of winning back the opposition. I'd speak a lot more nicely about it than I have here, of course, but the direction would be the same: leftward and to hell ("heck") with the status quo.

I've been reading about the Lincoln-Douglas debates. Douglas tried to appeal to the center, and he did win the Senate seat. Lincoln was the idealist who didn't concede as much to the opposition (although he did concede some things) and he lost the Senate seat...but won the presidency on the strength of those debates. From his perspective it was worth it. Douglas ran for the presidency himself and got one state and part of New Jersey. And historians pretty much agree that a Douglas presidency still would have resulted in the Civil War anyway. The middle ground was inherently untenable, occupying it was no key to success.
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Old 21st August 2019, 09:22 AM   #551
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
Then yes, even if I were a political candidate I'd abandon the middle of the field and swing for the fences. I'd choose that gamble over the possibility of winning back the opposition. I'd speak a lot more nicely about it than I have here, of course, but the direction would be the same: leftward and to hell ("heck") with the status quo.

I've been reading about the Lincoln-Douglas debates. Douglas tried to appeal to the center, and he did win the Senate seat. Lincoln was the idealist who didn't concede as much to the opposition (although he did concede some things) and he lost the Senate seat...but won the presidency on the strength of those debates. From his perspective it was worth it. Douglas ran for the presidency himself and got one state and part of New Jersey. And historians pretty much agree that a Douglas presidency still would have resulted in the Civil War anyway. The middle ground was inherently untenable, occupying it was no key to success.
That's just going to have the end result of codifying "Cause Purity" and "You've only got two choices" into a hybrid monster of "Everyone who's not 100% in agreement with me about everything is the enemy."
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Old 21st August 2019, 09:44 AM   #552
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
That's just going to have the end result of codifying "Cause Purity" and "You've only got two choices" into a hybrid monster of "Everyone who's not 100% in agreement with me about everything is the enemy."
Dude, I'm familiar with your posts. You always argue for concessions, mitigation, watering-down, surrender. If you'd been a Founding Father the US would be a special tax district of Britain today. Just take it as read that I am the implacable opposite of all your own instincts and move on.
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Old 21st August 2019, 09:46 AM   #553
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
Dude, I'm familiar with your posts. You always argue for concessions, mitigation, watering-down, surrender. If you'd been a Founding Father the US would be a special tax district of Britain today. Just take it as read that I am the implacable opposite of all your own instincts and move on.
Yep. You're either 100% completely "Causiest of the cause" on your side or your some wishy-washy both sides are equal middle of the roader. Yep.

I want Trump stopped more then I care about the Democrat Party's ego. Crucify me.
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Last edited by JoeMorgue; 21st August 2019 at 09:48 AM.
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Old 21st August 2019, 09:49 AM   #554
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
Yep. You're either 100% completely "Causiest of the cause" on your side or your some wishy-washy both sides are equal middle of the roader. Yep.
"You say you say tomato, I say tomahto, I say you say tomato, I say tomato." --Mr Peanutbutter
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Old 21st August 2019, 09:50 AM   #555
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Originally Posted by JoeMorgue View Post
I want Trump stopped more then I care about the Democrat Party's ego. Crucify me.
You're as delusional as Trump if you read what I said and think I'm being nice to the Democratic party!
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Old 21st August 2019, 10:06 AM   #556
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Don't read rust belt voting based on how they feel about red vs. blue. They have a completely different orientation to their thinking.

They want someone who will chuck a metaphorical grenade into the halls of power. That's why they voted for Trump. That's why they will not vote for a candidate who can be described as "safe", "stable", "reliable", "familiar", or "acceptable."

Trump did not start out in the lead and march to an expected convention nod. The GOP convention saw not just the usual whisperings of backroom jockeying to have the voting sewn up by the time the big moment comes, but a verbal brawl over rules changes from the "Never Trump" holdouts.

So the angry people see their own plight through Trump. He may not be one of "them" but he earned it by playing by their stupid rules and then they tried to steal it from him anyways. The old guard, the hacks, the people who keep selling us out tried to stop him, "so he must be on my side, or at least he'll give the ones who engineered my deprivation some what-for!"

For the life of me I can't find what program I heard it on recently, but someone was explaining that a lot of how we grapple with voting is in the part of the brain that is associated with social reasoning and much more "simple mammalian" than "advanced primate" kind of thinking.
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Old 21st August 2019, 10:27 AM   #557
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Originally Posted by BobTheCoward View Post
The one piece of evidence for electability is how well they do winning elections. But that seems to be the least discussed item.
You do not consider the results of scientifically conducted polling to be evidence?
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Last edited by Distracted1; 21st August 2019 at 10:35 AM.
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Old 21st August 2019, 10:34 AM   #558
Distracted1
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Originally Posted by Delphic Oracle View Post
Don't read rust belt voting based on how they feel about red vs. blue. They have a completely different orientation to their thinking.

They want someone who will chuck a metaphorical grenade into the halls of power. That's why they voted for Trump. That's why they will not vote for a candidate who can be described as "safe", "stable", "reliable", "familiar", or "acceptable."

Trump did not start out in the lead and march to an expected convention nod. The GOP convention saw not just the usual whisperings of backroom jockeying to have the voting sewn up by the time the big moment comes, but a verbal brawl over rules changes from the "Never Trump" holdouts.

So the angry people see their own plight through Trump. He may not be one of "them" but he earned it by playing by their stupid rules and then they tried to steal it from him anyways. The old guard, the hacks, the people who keep selling us out tried to stop him, "so he must be on my side, or at least he'll give the ones who engineered my deprivation some what-for!"

For the life of me I can't find what program I heard it on recently, but someone was explaining that a lot of how we grapple with voting is in the part of the brain that is associated with social reasoning and much more "simple mammalian" than "advanced primate" kind of thinking.
I disagree.
People in the rust belt want stability and predictability for the most part. 2016 happened to be a year in which both the presented candidates were so repellant, and the outcome so (wrongly) seemingly forgone, that the loony-tune vote actually resulted in something.
They will "flock" to an establishment candidate in 2020.
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Old 21st August 2019, 10:51 AM   #559
BobTheCoward
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Originally Posted by Distracted1 View Post
You do not consider the results of scientifically conducted polling to be evidence?
Polling is a critical component in assessing how well candidates do in getting elected and their performance relative to polling....including the biggest poll of them all, the actual vote.
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Old 21st August 2019, 11:02 AM   #560
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Originally Posted by TragicMonkey View Post
Dude, I'm familiar with your posts. You always argue for concessions, mitigation, watering-down, surrender. If you'd been a Founding Father the US would be a special tax district of Britain today. Just take it as read that I am the implacable opposite of all your own instincts and move on.
Ok, civil war then. Go.
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